Perceived collision risks in anchorages : a hierarchical ordered probit analysis

Navigational collisions are a major safety concern in many seaports. Despite the recent advances in port navigational safety research, little is known about harbor pilot’s perception of collision risks in anchorages. This study attempts to model such risks by employing a hierarchical ordered probit model, which is calibrated by using data collected through a risk perception survey conducted on Singapore port pilots. The hierarchical model is found to be useful to account for correlations in risks perceived by individual pilots. Results show higher perceived risks in anchorages attached to intersection, local and international fairway; becoming more critical at night. Lesser risks are perceived in anchorages featuring shoreline in boundary, higher water depth, lower density of stationary ships, cardinal marks and isolated danger marks. Pilotage experience shows a negative effect on perceived risks. This study indicates that hierarchical modeling would be useful for treating correlations in navigational safety data.

Modelling collision potentials in Port Anchorages: Application of the Navigational Traffic Conflict Technique (NTCT)

Despite the extent of works done on modelling port water collisions, not much research effort has been devoted to modelling collisions at port anchorages. This paper aims to fill this important gap in literature by applying the Navigation Traffic Conflict Technique (NTCT) for measuring the collision potentials in anchorages and for examining the factors contributing to collisions. Grounding on the principles of the NTCT, a collision potential measurement model and a collision potential prediction model were developed. These models were illustrated by using vessel movement data of the anchorages in Singapore port waters. Results showed that the measured collision potentials are in close agreement with those perceived by harbour pilots. Higher collision potentials were found in anchorages attached to shoreline and international fairways, but not at those attached to confined water. Higher operating speeds, larger numbers of isolated danger marks and day conditions were associated with reduction in the collision potentials.

Three-dimensional finite element analysis of anterior single implant-supported prostheses with different bone anchorages

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Test and evaluation of head restraints, seat backs, and anchorages in vehicles subjected to rear impact collision. Final report.

National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, Washington, D.C.

Analysis of modification and costs of child seat anchorages. Final report.

National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, Washington, D.C.

Hierarchical modeling of perceived collision risks in port fairways

Navigational collisions are one of the major safety concerns in many seaports. Despite the extent of recent works done on port navigational safety research, little is known about harbor pilot’s perception of collision risks in port fairways. This paper uses a hierarchical ordered probit model to investigate associations between perceived risks and the geometric and traffic characteristics of fairways and the pilot attributes. Perceived risk data, collected through a risk perception survey conducted among the Singapore port pilots, are used to calibrate the model. Intra-class correlation coefficient justifies use of the hierarchical model in comparison with an ordinary model. Results show higher perceived risks in fairways attached to anchorages, and in those featuring sharper bends and higher traffic operating speeds. Lesser risks are perceived in fairways attached to shoreline and confined waters, and in those with one-way traffic, traffic separation scheme, cardinal marks and isolated danger marks. Risk is also found to be perceived higher in night.

Statistical analysis of conflict involvements in port water navigation

With increasing rate of shipping traffic, the risk of collisions in busy and congested port waters is likely to rise. However, due to low collision frequencies in port waters, it is difficult to analyze such risk in a sound statistical manner. A convenient approach of investigating navigational collision risk is the application of the traffic conflict techniques, which have potential to overcome the difficulty of obtaining statistical soundness. This study aims at examining port water conflicts in order to understand the characteristics of collision risk with regard to vessels involved, conflict locations, traffic and kinematic conditions. A hierarchical binomial logit model, which considers the potential correlations between observation-units, i.e., vessels, involved in the same conflicts, is employed to evaluate the association of explanatory variables with conflict severity levels. Results show higher likelihood of serious conflicts for vessels of small gross tonnage or small overall length. The probability of serious conflict also increases at locations where vessels have more varied headings, such as traffic intersections and anchorages; becoming more critical at night time. Findings from this research should assist both navigators operating in port waters as well as port authorities overseeing navigational management.

Navigational Safety in Port Waters : Proactive Management of Collision Risk Using Traffic Conflicts

Traditionally navigational safety analyses rely on historical collision data which is often hampered because of low collision counts, insufficiency in explaining collision causation, and reactive approach to safety. A promising alternative approach that overcomes these problems is using navigational traffic conflicts or near-misses as an alternative to the collision data. This book discusses how traffic conflicts can effectively be used in modeling of port water collision risks. Techniques for measuring and predicting collision risks in fairways, intersections, and anchorages are discussed by utilizing advanced statistical models. Risk measurement models, which quantitatively measure collision risks in waterways, are discussed. To predict risks, a hierarchical statistical modeling technique is discussed which identifies the factors influencing the risks. The modeling techniques are illustrated for Singapore port data. Results showed that traffic conflicts are an ethically appealing alternative to collision data for fast, reliable and effective safety assessment, thus possessing great potential for managing collision risks in port waters.

Memórias da equipe de enfermagem na primeira década da epidemia da Aids

Na década de 80 dramáticas ocorrências atingiram o país e o mundo na área da saúde com a descoberta da Síndrome da Imunodeficiência Adquirida (Aids) síndrome, causada pelo Vírus da Imunodeficiência Humana (HIV). O objetivo deste estudo foi descrever as representações sociais do HIV/Aids e as memórias sociais do cuidado de enfermagem construídas na década de 80 pela equipe de enfermagem. Optou-se por uma abordagem qualitativa, embasada na teoria de representações sociais e nos conceitos do campo da memória social. Os sujeitos do estudo foram 20 profissionais de enfermagem de serviços ambulatoriais e/ou da atenção básica, atuantes em 11 instituições públicas de saúde da cidade do Rio de Janeiro que possuem o Programa Nacional de DST/Aids. A coleta de dados foi realizada através de entrevista semiestruturada e questionário de caracterização sócio profissional. A análise dos dados deu-se em duas etapas, a primeira atraves da técnica de análise de conteúdo temática destinada a identificar nos depoimentos dos entrevistados os conteúdos discursivos relativos a década de 80. Posteriormente os trechos selecionados foram submetidos à análise lexical pelo software Alceste 4.10. Obteve-se três classes temáticas que abordaram: As percepções e as ações do cuidado de enfermagem na década de 80; Os primeiros contatos profissionais e pessoais com HIV/Aids e A mídia e a construção das representações sociais do HIV/Aids. Na primeira classe os profissionais de enfermagem relatam as memórias referentes aos cuidados prestados na década de 80, descrevendo como esse cuidado era prestado, o medo da contaminação e os profissionais que atuavam na prestação de serviços. Na classe 2 os sujeitos resgatam as primeiras vivências com as pessoas com HIV/Aids e os sentimentos experimentados neste primeiro contato. As características físicas, os aspectos emocionais, a introdução do AZT e o abandono familiar são elementos destacados. Na classe 3 são relatas as memórias referentes ao início da epidemia de HIV/Aids, com destaque para as ancoragens representacionais do surgimento do vírus, tendo especialmente o macaco como hospedeiro. Os meios de comunicação surgiram como formadores das memórias do início da epidemia, veiculando imagens, como a do cantor Cazuza, fortemente citado pelos sujeitos. Conclui-se que este estudo permitiu compreender, através das memórias e das representações, como se constituiu a atuação dos profissionais no início da epidemia, assim como a permanência de elementos simbólicos até hoje nas representações sociais do HIV/Aids.

悬索桥隧道式锚碇与围岩系统的破坏模式研究

The anchorages are unparalleled structures only in a suspension bridge, and as main bearing facilities, play an important role in connecting the superstructures and the ground. The tunnel anchorage, as one alternative type of the anchorages, has more advantages over its counterpart, the gravity anchorage. With the tunnel anchorages adopted, not only can surface excavation be reduced to protect the environment, and natural condition of the rock be utilized and potential bearing capacity of surrounding rock be mobilized to save engineering cost, but also the technological predominance of auxiliary engineering measures, such as prestressed concrete, anchoring piles, rock anchors and collar beam between the two separated anchorages, can be easily cooperated to work together harmoniously under the circumstances of poor rock quality. There are plentiful high mountains and deep canyons in west part of China, and long-span bridge construction is inevitably encountered in order to realize leapfrogging development of the transportation infrastructure. Western mountainous areas usually possess the conditions for constructing tunnel anchorages, and therefore, the tunnel anchorages, which are conformed to the conception of resource conservative and sustainable society, extremely have application and popularization value in western underdeveloped region. The scientific and technological problem about the design, construction and operation of tunnel anchorages should be further investigated. Combining the engineering of western tunnel anchorages for the Balinghe Suspension Bridge, this paper probed into the survey method and in-situ test method for tunnel anchorages, scientific rock quality evaluation of surrounding rock to provide reasonable physical and mechanical parameters for design, construction and operation of tunnel anchorages, bearing capacity estimation for tunnel anchorage, deformation prediction of the anchorage-rockmass system, tunnel-anchorage slope stability analysis and the evaluation of excavation stability and degree of safety of the anchorage tunnel. The following outcomes were obtained: 1. Materials of tunnel anchorages of suspension bridge built (and in progress) at home and abroad were systematically sorted out, with the engineering geological condition and geomechanical property of surrounding rock around the anchorage tunnel, the design size of anchorages and the construction method of anchorage tunnel paid more emphasis on, to unveil the internal relationship between the engineering geological conditions of surrounding rock and the design size and axis angle of anchorages and provide references for future design, construction and study of tunnel anchorages. 2. Physical and mechanical parameters were recommended based on three domestic and foreign methods of rock quality evaluation. 3. In-situ tests, adopting the back-thrust method, of two kinds of reduced scale model, 1/30 and 1/20, for the tunnel anchorages were conducted in the declining exploration drift with rock mass at the test depth being the same as surrounding rock around real anchorages, and reliable field rockmass displacement data were acquired. Attenuation relation between the increment of distance from the anchorage and the decrement of rockmass displacement under maximum test load, and influential scope suffered by anchorage load were obtained. 4. Using similarity theory, the magnitude of real anchorage and rockmass displacement under design load and degree of safety of the anchorage system were deduced. Furthermore, inversion analysis to deformation modulus of slightly weathered dolomite rock, the surrounding rock of anchorage tunnel, was performed by the means of numerical simulation. 5. The influential law of the geometrical size to the limit bearing capacity of tunnel anchorage was studied. 6. Based on engineering geological survey data, accounting for the combination of strata layer and adverse discontinuities, the failure patterns of tunnel anchorage slope were divided into three modes: sliding of splay saddle pier slope, superficial-layer slippage, and deep-layer slippage. Using virtual work principle and taking anchorage load in account, the stability of the three kinds of failure patterns were analyzed in detail. 7. The step-by-step excavation of anchorage tunnel, the numerical overload and the staged decrement of rock strength parameters were numerically simulated to evaluate the excavation stability of surrounding rock around anchorage tunnel, the overload performance of tunnel anchorage, and the safety margin of strength parameters of the surrounding rock.

Orthodontic movement after periodontal regeneration of class II furcation: a pilot study in dogs

Purpose: the effect of orthodontic movement on the periodontal tissues of maxillary second pre-molars, after regenerative treatment for class II furcations, was evaluated in four mongrel dogs.Material and Methods: Class II furcation lesions were created. After 75 days they were treated with bovine bone mineral matrix and guided tissue regeneration with absorbable membrane. After 2 months of daily plaque control, each of the dog's furcation pre-molars was randomly assigned to a test or control group. Orthodontic appliances were placed on both sides of the maxilla using third pre-molars and canines as anchorages. In the test group, bodily orthodontic movement of the second pre-molars was performed in the mesial direction for 3 months while control pre-molars remained unmoved. The dogs were sacrificed for histometric and histologic analyses.Results: There were no statistically significant differences between the two groups in total bone and biomaterial areas or linear extension of periodontal regeneration on the radicular surfaces. In the test group, however, there was a tendency to a greater quantity of bone and a lesser quantity of biomaterial.Conclusion: the orthodontic movement was not pre-judicial to the results obtained with the regenerative periodontal treatment.

Antigua and Barbuda: the yachting sector

Includes bibliography

Estudo das ligações entre pilares de concreto e alvenaria cerâmica de vedação

Pós-graduação em Engenharia Civil - FEIS