Managing infrastructure transitions : a complex adaptive systems perspective

Engineering assets such as roads, rail, bridges and other forms of public works are vital to the effective functioning of societies {Herder, 2006 #128}. Proficient provision of this physical infrastructure is therefore one of the key activities of government {Lædre, 2006 #123}. In order to ensure engineering assets are procured and maintained on behalf of citizens, government needs to devise the appropriate policy and institutional architecture for this purpose. The changing institutional arrangements around the procurement of engineering assets are the focus of this paper. The paper describes and analyses the transition to new, more collaborative forms of procurement arrangements which are becoming increasingly prevalent in Australia and other OECD countries. Such fundamental shifts from competitive to more collaborative approaches to project governance can be viewed as a major transition in procurement system arrangements. In many ways such changes mirror the shift from New Public Management, with its emphasis on the use of market mechanisms to achieve efficiencies {Hood, 1991 #166}, towards more collaborative approaches to service delivery, such as those under network governance arrangements {Keast, 2007 #925}. However, just as traditional forms of procurement in a market context resulted in unexpected outcomes for industry, such as a fragmented industry afflicted by chronic litigation {Dubois, 2002 #9}, the change to more collaborative forms of procurement is unlikely to be a panacea to the problems of procurement, and may well also have unintended consequences. This paper argues that perspectives from complex adaptive systems (CAS) theory can contribute to the theory and practice of managing system transitions. In particular the concept of emergence provides a key theoretical construct to understand the aggregate effect that individual project governance arrangements can have upon the structure of specific industries, which in turn impact individual projects. Emergence is understood here as the macro structure that emerges out of the interaction of agents in the system {Holland, 1998 #100; Tang, 2006 #51}.

Infrastructure transitions toward sustainability : a complex adaptive systems perspective

To ensure infrastructure assets are procured and maintained by government on behalf of citizens, appropriate policy and institutional architecture is needed, particularly if a fundamental shift to more sustainable infrastructure is the goal. The shift in recent years from competitive and resource-intensive procurement to more collaborative and sustainable approaches to infrastructure governance is considered a major transition in infrastructure procurement systems. In order to better understand this transition in infrastructure procurement arrangements, the concept of emergence from Complex Adaptive Systems (CAS) theory is offered as a key construct. Emergence holds that micro interactions can result in emergent macro order. Applying the concept of emergence to infrastructure procurement, this research examines how interaction of agents in individual projects can result in different industry structural characteristics. The paper concludes that CAS theory, and particularly the concept of ‘emergence’, provides a useful construct to understand infrastructure procurement dynamics and progress towards sustainability.

A global convergence criterion for discrete-time multivariable adaptive systems

The paper deals with the basic problem of adjusting a matrix gain in a discrete-time linear multivariable system. The object is to obtain a global convergence criterion, i.e. conditions under which a specified error signal asymptotically approaches zero and other signals in the system remain bounded for arbitrary initial conditions and for any bounded input to the system. It is shown that for a class of up-dating algorithms for the adjustable gain matrix, global convergence is crucially dependent on a transfer matrix G(z) which has a simple block diagram interpretation. When w(z)G(z) is strictly discrete positive real for a scalar w(z) such that w-1(z) is strictly proper with poles and zeros within the unit circle, an augmented error scheme is suggested and is proved to result in global convergence. The solution avoids feeding back a quadratic term as recommended in other schemes for single-input single-output systems.

A structural principle for a class of adaptive systems

A feature common to many adaptive systems for identification and control is the adjustment.of gain parameters in a manner ensuring the stability of the overall system. This paper puts forward a principle which assures such a result for arbitrary systems which are linear and time invariant except for the adjustable parameters. The principle only demands that a transfer function be positive real. This transfer function dependent on the structure of the system with respect to the parameters. Several examples from adaptive identification, control and observer schemes are given as illustrations of the conceptual simplification provided by the structural principle.

Various algorithms for optimization and learning in adaptive systems

This thesis discusses various methods for learning and optimization in adaptive systems. Overall, it emphasizes the relationship between optimization, learning, and adaptive systems; and it illustrates the influence of underlying hardware upon the construction of efficient algorithms for learning and optimization. Chapter 1 provides a summary and an overview.

Chapter 2 discusses a method for using feed-forward neural networks to filter the noise out of noise-corrupted signals. The networks use back-propagation learning, but they use it in a way that qualifies as unsupervised learning. The networks adapt based only on the raw input data-there are no external teachers providing information on correct operation during training. The chapter contains an analysis of the learning and develops a simple expression that, based only on the geometry of the network, predicts performance.

Chapter 3 explains a simple model of the piriform cortex, an area in the brain involved in the processing of olfactory information. The model was used to explore the possible effect of acetylcholine on learning and on odor classification. According to the model, the piriform cortex can classify odors better when acetylcholine is present during learning but not present during recall. This is interesting since it suggests that learning and recall might be separate neurochemical modes (corresponding to whether or not acetylcholine is present). When acetylcholine is turned off at all times, even during learning, the model exhibits behavior somewhat similar to Alzheimer's disease, a disease associated with the degeneration of cells that distribute acetylcholine.

Chapters 4, 5, and 6 discuss algorithms appropriate for adaptive systems implemented entirely in analog hardware. The algorithms inject noise into the systems and correlate the noise with the outputs of the systems. This allows them to estimate gradients and to implement noisy versions of gradient descent, without having to calculate gradients explicitly. The methods require only noise generators, adders, multipliers, integrators, and differentiators; and the number of devices needed scales linearly with the number of adjustable parameters in the adaptive systems. With the exception of one global signal, the algorithms require only local information exchange.

Efficient electronic implementations of adaptive systems for ambient intelligence environments

183 p.

Natural inspiration for self-adaptive systems

The emergent behaviour of autonomic systems, together with the scale of their deployment, impedes prediction of the full range of configuration and failure scenarios; thus it is not possible to devise management and recovery strategies to cover all possible outcomes. One solution to this problem is to embed self-managing and self-healing abilities into such applications. Traditional design approaches favour determinism, even when unnecessary. This can lead to conflicts between the non-functional requirements. Natural systems such as ant colonies have evolved cooperative, finely tuned emergent behaviours which allow the colonies to function at very large scale and to be very robust, although non-deterministic. Simple pheromone-exchange communication systems are highly efficient and are a major contribution to their success. This paper proposes that we look to natural systems for inspiration when designing architecture and communications strategies, and presents an election algorithm which encapsulates non-deterministic behaviour to achieve high scalability, robustness and stability.

Generic support for policy-based self-adaptive systems

This paper presents a policy definition language which forms part of a generic policy toolkit for autonomic computing systems in which the policies themselves can be modified dynamically and automatically. Targeted enhancements to the current state of practice include: policy self-adaptation where the policy itself is dynamically modified to match environmental conditions; improved support for non autonomics-expert developers; and facilitating easy deployment of adaptive policies into legacy code. The policy definition language permits powerful expression of self-managing behaviours and facilitates a diverse policy behaviour space. Features include support for multiple versions of a given policy type, multiple configuration templates, and meta policies to dynamically select between policy instances. An example deployment scenario illustrates advanced functionality in the context of a multi policy stock trading system which is sensitive to environmental volatility.

Truth in complex adaptive systems models should be based on truth by constructive verification

It is argued that the truth status of emergent properties of complex adaptive systems models should be based on an epistemology of proof by constructive verification and therefore on the ontological axioms of a non-realist logical system such as constructivism or intuitionism. ‘Emergent’ properties of complex adaptive systems (CAS) models create particular epistemological and ontological challenges. These challenges bear directly on current debates in the philosophy of mathematics and in theoretical computer science. CAS research, with its emphasis on computer simulation, is heavily reliant on models which explore the entailments of Formal Axiomatic Systems (FAS). The incompleteness results of Gödel, the incomputability results of Turing, and the Algorithmic Information Theory results of Chaitin, undermine a realist (platonic) truth model of emergent properties. These same findings support the hegemony of epistemology over ontology and point to alternative truth models such as intuitionism, constructivism and quasi-empiricism.

Change escalation processes and complex adaptive systems: from incremental reconfigurations to discontinuous restructuring

This study examines when “incremental” change is likely to trigger “discontinuous” change, using the lens of complex adaptive systems theory. Going beyond the simulations and case studies through which complex adaptive systems have been approached so far, we study the relationship between incremental organizational reconfigurations and discontinuous organizational restructurings using a large-scale database of U.S. Fortune 50 industrial corporations. We develop two types of escalation process in organizations: accumulation and perturbation. Under ordinary conditions, it is perturbation rather than the accumulation that is more likely to trigger subsequent discontinuous change. Consistent with complex adaptive systems theory, organizations are more sensitive to both accumulation and perturbation in conditions of heightened disequilibrium. Contrary to expectations, highly interconnected organizations are not more liable to discontinuous change. We conclude with implications for further research, especially the need to attend to the potential role of managerial design and coping when transferring complex adaptive systems theory from natural systems to organizational systems.

Information systems development projects as complex adaptive systems

This research considers information systems development (ISD) projects as complex adaptive systems. We investigate the question whether complex adaptive systems (CAS) theory is relevant as a theoretical foundation for understanding ISD, and if so, which kind of understanding can be achieved by utilizing the theory? We introduce key concepts of CAS theory such as interaction, emergence, interconnected autonomous agents, selforganization, co-evolution, poise at the edge of chaos, time pacing, and poise at the edge of time to analyse and understand ISD in practice. We demonstrate the strength of such a CAS approach through an empirical case study presentation and analysis. While our work contributes to a complexity theory of ISD, the case examination also provides practical advice derived from this perspective to successfully cope with complexity in ISD in an adaptive manner.