Extending Zelterman���s approach for robust estimation of population size to zero-truncated clustered data

Estimation of population size with missing zero-class is an important problem that is encountered in epidemiological assessment studies. Fitting a Poisson model to the observed data by the method of maximum likelihood and estimation of the population size based on this fit is an approach that has been widely used for this purpose. In practice, however, the Poisson assumption is seldom satisfied. Zelterman (1988) has proposed a robust estimator for unclustered data that works well in a wide class of distributions applicable for count data. In the work presented here, we extend this estimator to clustered data. The estimator requires fitting a zero-truncated homogeneous Poisson model by maximum likelihood and thereby using a Horvitz-Thompson estimator of population size. This was found to work well, when the data follow the hypothesized homogeneous Poisson model. However, when the true distribution deviates from the hypothesized model, the population size was found to be underestimated. In the search of a more robust estimator, we focused on three models that use all clusters with exactly one case, those clusters with exactly two cases and those with exactly three cases to estimate the probability of the zero-class and thereby use data collected on all the clusters in the Horvitz-Thompson estimator of population size. Loss in efficiency associated with gain in robustness was examined based on a simulation study. As a trade-off between gain in robustness and loss in efficiency, the model that uses data collected on clusters with at most three cases to estimate the probability of the zero-class was found to be preferred in general. In applications, we recommend obtaining estimates from all three models and making a choice considering the estimates from the three models, robustness and the loss in efficiency. (�� 2008 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)

A to zero of refrigeration; a simple story of man-made cold.

Rev. 1956.

Soliton generation from randomly modulated return-to-zero pulses

We consider return-to-zero (RZ) pulses with random phase modulation propagating in a nonlinear channel (modelled by the integrable nonlinear Schr��dinger equation, NLSE). We suggest two different models for the phase fluctuations of the optical field: (i) Gaussian short-correlated fluctuations and (ii) generalized telegraph process. Using the rectangular-shaped pulse form we demonstrate that the presence of phase fluctuations of both types strongly influences the number of solitons generated in the channel. It is also shown that increasing the correlation time for the random phase fluctuations affects the coherent content of a pulse in a non-trivial way. The result obtained has potential consequences for all-optical processing and design of optical decision elements.

All-optical passive quasi-regeneration in transoceanic 40 Gbit/s return-to-zero transmission systems with strong dispersion management

A method of all-optical passive quasi-regeneration in transoceanic 40 Gbit/s return-to-zero transmission systems with strong dispersion management was described. The use of in-line nonlinear optical loop mirrors (NOLM) by the method was demonstrated. The quasi-regeneration of signals performed by NOLMs was found to improve the systems's performance.

Performance enhancement of asymmetric filtered 40 Gb/s carrier suppressed return to zero-differential phase shift keying receiver in a 50 GHz grid

The authors present the impact of asymmetric filtering of strong (e.g. 35 GHz) optical filters on the performance of 42.7 Gb/s 67% (carrier suppressed return to zero)-differential phase shift keying systems. The performance is examined (in an amplified spontaneous emission (ASE) noise-limited regime and in the presence of chromatic dispersion) when offsetting the filter at the receiver by substantial amounts via balanced, constructive and destructive single-ended detections. It is found that with a slight offset (vestigial side band) or an offset of almost half of the modulation frequency (single-side band), there is a significant improvement in the calculated 'Q'. �� The Institution of Engineering and Technology 2013.

Simultaneous multichannel carrier-suppressed return-to-zero to non-return-to-zero format conversion using a fiber Bragg grating

A novel multichannel carrier-suppressed return-to-zero (CSRZ) to non-return-to-zero (NRZ) format conversion scheme based on a single custom-designed fiber Bragg grating (FBG) with comb spectra is proposed. The spectral response of each channel is designed according to the algebraic difference between the CSRZ and NRZ spectra outlines. The tailored group delays are introduced to minimize the maximum refractive index modulation. Numerical results show that four-channel 200-GHz-spaced CSRZ signals at 40 Gbits/s can be converted into NRZ signals with high Q-factor and wide-range robustness. It is shown that our proposed FBG is robust to deviations of bandwidth and central wavelength detuning. Another important merit of this scheme is that the pattern effects are efficiently reduced owing to the well-designed spectra response.

Gotland Deep (Baltic Sea) independent age model based on Palaeomagnetic Secular Variation (PSV) and lead (Pb) deposition profiles

Dating of sediment cores from the Baltic Sea has proven to be difficult due to uncertainties surrounding the 14C reservoir age and a scarcity of macrofossils suitable for dating. Here we present the results of multiple dating methods carried out on cores in the Gotland Deep area of the Baltic Sea. Particular emphasis is placed on the Littorina stage (8 ka ago to the present) of the Baltic Sea and possible changes in the 14C reservoir age of our dated samples. Three geochronological methods are used. Firstly, palaeomagnetic secular variations (PSV) are reconstructed, whereby ages are transferred to PSV features through comparison with varved lake sediment based PSV records. Secondly, lead (Pb) content and stable isotope analysis are used to identify past peaks in anthropogenic atmospheric Pb pollution. Lastly, 14C determinations were carried out on benthic foraminifera (Elphidium spec.) samples from the brackish Littorina stage of the Baltic Sea. Determinations carried out on smaller samples (as low as 4 ��g C) employed an experimental, state-of-the-art method involving the direct measurement of CO2 from samples by a gas ion source without the need for a graphitisation step - the first time this method has been performed on foraminifera in an applied study. The PSV chronology, based on the uppermost Littorina stage sediments, produced ten age constraints between 6.29 and 1.29 cal ka BP, and the Pb depositional analysis produced two age constraints associated with the Medieval pollution peak. Analysis of PSV data shows that adequate directional data can be derived from both the present Littorina saline phase muds and Baltic Ice Lake stage varved glacial sediments. Ferrimagnetic iron sulphides, most likely authigenic greigite (Fe3S4), present in the intermediate Ancylus Lake freshwater stage sediments acquire a gyroremanent magnetisation during static alternating field (AF) demagnetisation, preventing the identification of a primary natural remanent magnetisation for these sediments. An inferred marine reservoir age offset (deltaR) is calculated by comparing the foraminifera 14C determinations to a PSV & Pb age model. This deltaR is found to trend towards younger values upwards in the core, possibly due to a gradual change in hydrographic conditions brought about by a reduction in marine water exchange from the open sea due to continued isostatic rebound.

Hitting and returning to rare events for all alpha-mixing processes

We prove that for any a-mixing stationary process the hitting time of any n-string A(n) converges, when suitably normalized, to an exponential law. We identify the normalization constant lambda(A(n)). A similar statement holds also for the return time. To establish this result we prove two other results of independent interest. First, we show a relation between the rescaled hitting time and the rescaled return time, generalizing a theorem of Haydn, Lacroix and Vaienti. Second, we show that for positive entropy systems, the probability of observing any n-string in n consecutive observations goes to zero as n goes to infinity. (c) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Numerical optimization experiments using the hyperbolic smoothing strategy to solve MPCC

In this work we solve Mathematical Programs with Complementarity Constraints using the hyperbolic smoothing strategy. Under this approach, the complementarity condition is relaxed through the use of the hyperbolic smoothing function, involving a positive parameter that can be decreased to zero. An iterative algorithm is implemented in MATLAB language and a set of AMPL problems from MacMPEC database were tested.

Analysis of metabolic flux distributions in relation to the extracellular environment in Avian cells

Continuous cell lines that proliferate in chemically defined and simple media have been highly regarded as suitable alternatives for vaccine production. One such cell line is the AG1.CR.pIX avian cell line developed by PROBIOGEN. This cell line can be cultivated in a fully scalable suspension culture and adapted to grow in chemically defined, calf serum free, medium [1]���[5]. The medium composition and cultivation strategy are important factors for reaching high virus titers. In this project, a series of computational methods was used to simulate the cell���s response to different environments. The study is based on the metabolic model of the central metabolism proposed in [1]. In a first step, Metabolic Flux Analysis (MFA) was used along with measured uptake and secretion fluxes to estimate intracellular flux values. The network and data were found to be consistent. In a second step, Flux Balance Analysis (FBA) was performed to access the cell���s biological objective. The objective that resulted in the best predicted results fit to the experimental data was the minimization of oxidative phosphorylation. Employing this objective, in the next step Flux Variability Analysis (FVA) was used to characterize the flux solution space. Furthermore, various scenarios, where a reaction deletion (elimination of the compound from the media) was simulated, were performed and the flux solution space for each scenario was calculated. Growth restrictions caused by essential and non-essential amino acids were accurately predicted. Fluxes related to the essential amino acids uptake and catabolism, the lipid synthesis and ATP production via TCA were found to be essential to exponential growth. Finally, the data gathered during the previous steps were analyzed using principal component analysis (PCA), in order to assess potential changes in the physiological state of the cell. Three metabolic states were found, which correspond to zero, partial and maximum biomass growth rate. Elimination of non-essential amino acids or pyruvate from the media showed no impact on the cell���s assumed normal metabolic state.

Determinant factors to merger control decisions in Portugal

The present paper aims to investigate the determinant factors of Portuguese merger control. Our sample comprises 652 M&A cases occurred between January of 2003 and September of 2015. Through a probit model we have tested the relevance of product and geographic market, entry barriers, type of concentration, merger effects, year of decision and the President of the Competition Authority at the time. The results suggests that the conglomerate and vertical effects, the existence of barriers to entry as well as the number of regulatory agencies listened are the main explanatory variables to determine a need for an in-depth investigation and to make a final decision. According to the evidence, cases cleared at Phase 1 are increasing over time. The number of prohibited mergers is close to zero.

Measuring end-to-end delay in real-time auralisation systems

One of the major challenges in the development of an immersive system is handling the delay between the tracking of the user���s head position and the updated projection of a 3D image or auralised sound, also called end-to-end delay. Excessive end-to-end delay can result in the general decrement of the ���feeling of presence���, the occurrence of motion sickness and poor performance in perception-action tasks. These latencies must be known in order to provide insights on the technological (hardware/software optimization) or psychophysical (recalibration sessions) strategies to deal with them. Our goal was to develop a new measurement method of end-to-end delay that is both precise and easily replicated. We used a Head and Torso simulator (HATS) as an auditory signal sensor, a fast response photo-sensor to detect a visual stimulus response from a Motion Capture System, and a voltage input trigger as real-time event. The HATS was mounted in a turntable which allowed us to precisely change the 3D sound relative to the head position. When the virtual sound source was at 90�� azimuth, the correspondent HRTF would set all the intensity values to zero, at the same time a trigger would register the real-time event of turning the HATS 90�� azimuth. Furthermore, with the HATS turned 90�� to the left, the motion capture marker visualization would fell exactly in the photo-sensor receptor. This method allowed us to precisely measure the delay from tracking to displaying. Moreover, our results show that the method of tracking, its tracking frequency, and the rendering of the sound reflections are the main predictors of end-to-end delay.

The relation of the concentration of macronutrients in the substrate and in the foliage to cell wall thickness and cellulose concentration in the xylem of slash pine (Pinus elliotti)

Sand culture experiments, using a sub-irrigation technique, were installed in order to find out the effects of the macronutrients N, P, K, Ca, Mg and S on growth, aspect, mineral composition, length of fibers, thickness of cell wall and cellulose concentration in slash pine. The aim was to obtain, under controlled conditions, basic information which could eventually lead to practical means designed to increase the rate of growth and to make of slash pine a richer source of cellulose. Nitrogen, Phosphorus, Potassium Experiment A 3 x 3 x 3 factorial design with two replicates was used. Nitrogen was supplied initially at the levels of 25, 50 and 100 ppm; phosphorus was given at the rates of 5, 10 and 20 ppm; potassium was supplied at the rates of 25, 50 and 100 ppm; six months after the experiment was started the first level for each element was dropped to zero. Others macro and all micronutrients were supplied at uniform rates. Fifteen hours of illumination per day were provided. The experimental technique for growing the slash pine seedlings proved quite satisfactory. Symptoms of deficiency of nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium were observed, described and recorded in photographs and water colors. These informations will help to identify abnormalities which may appear under field conditions. Chemical analysis of the several plant parts, on the other hand, give a valuable means to assess the nutritional status of slash pine, thus confirming when needed, the visual diagnosis. The correctness of manurial pratices, on the other hand, can be judged with the help of the analytical data tabulated. Under the experimental conditions nitrogen caused the highest increases on growth, as measured by increments in height and dry weights, whereas the effects of phosphorus and potassium were less marked. Cellulose concentration was not significantly affected by the treatments used. Higher levels of N seemed to decrease both length of fiber elements and the thickness of cell wall. The effects of P and K were not well defined. Calcium, Magnesium, Sulfur Experiment A 3 x 3 x 3 factorial design with two replicates was used. Calcium was supplied initially at the levels of 12.5, 25 and 50 ppm; magnesium and sulfur were given at the rates of 6, 12.5 and 25 ppm. Other macro and micronutrients were supplied at uniform rates, common to all treatments. Three months after starting the experiment the first level for each element was dropped to zero. Symptoms of deficiency of calcium, magnesium and sulfur were observed, described and recorded as in the case of the previous experiment. Chemical analysis were made, both for mineral content and cellulose concentration. Length of fibers and thickness of cell wall were measured. Both calcium and magnesium increase height, sulfur failing to give significant response. Dry weight was beneficially affected by calcium and sulfur. The levels of calcium, magnesium and sulfur in the needles associated with deficiency and maximum growth are comparable with those found in the literature. Cellulose concentration increased when the level of sulfur in the substrate was raised. The thickness of cell wall was negatively affected by the treatments; no effect was observed with regards to length of fibers.