Innovative approaches of regional policy of rural tourism development

The present work intends to study Rural Tourism. More specifically: regional policy of Rural Tourism development. Purpose of this research is creation of innovative qualitative model of regional policy of Rural Tourism development for Ukraine. With this aim literature review was made, developed a research methodology and analysis made. It was established a way of creation of qualitative model, based on studied information and scientific papers. Research methodology was described in next part. Decided to do it in three stages: (1) justification of analytical research; (2) data sample collection and analysis; (3) creating of innovative model of regional policy of Rural Tourism development. Each of these stages have sub stages supported by results of previous. In accordance to methodology, analytical part was made in two steps: (1) analysis of statistical information about rural houses availability; (2) analysis of resources needed for successfully Rural Tourism activity. This part gave information about placement of rural houses by geographical regions and defined most attractive geographical regions for Rural Tourism development. The results showed that the highest rural houses availability is in Western geographical region. Other regions have low level of rural houses availability. However, analysis of resources needed for successful Rural Tourism development showed, that all geographical regions are attractive for organizing Rural Tourism activity. Based on this information an innovative qualitative model of Rural Tourism development was created.

Tourism demand modelling and forecasting with artificial neural network models: the Mozambique case study

This study is aimed to model and forecast the tourism demand for Mozambique for the period from January 2004 to December 2013 using artificial neural networks models. The number of overnight stays in Hotels was used as representative of the tourism demand. A set of independent variables were experimented in the input of the model, namely: Consumer Price Index, Gross Domestic Product and Exchange Rates, of the outbound tourism markets, South Africa, United State of America, Mozambique, Portugal and the United Kingdom. The best model achieved has 6.5% for Mean Absolute Percentage Error and 0.696 for Pearson correlation coefficient. A model like this with high accuracy of forecast is important for the economic agents to know the future growth of this activity sector, as it is important for stakeholders to provide products, services and infrastructures and for the hotels establishments to adequate its level of capacity to the tourism demand.