Tourism time series forecast

In this chapter four combinations of input features and the feedforward, cascade forward and recurrent architectures are compared for the task of forecast tourism time series. The input features of the ANNs consist in the combination of the previous 12 months, the index time modeled by two nodes used to the year and month and one input with the daily hours of sunshine (insolation duration). The index time features associated to the previous twelve values of the time series proved its relevance in this forecast task. The insolation variable can improved results with some architectures, namely the cascade forward architecture. Finally, the experimented ANN models/architectures produced a mean absolute percentage error between 4 and 6%, proving the ability of the ANN models based to forecast this time series. Besides, the feedforward architecture behaved better considering validation and test sets, with 4.2% percentage error in test set.

Innovative approaches of regional policy of rural tourism development

The present work intends to study Rural Tourism. More specifically: regional policy of Rural Tourism development. Purpose of this research is creation of innovative qualitative model of regional policy of Rural Tourism development for Ukraine. With this aim literature review was made, developed a research methodology and analysis made. It was established a way of creation of qualitative model, based on studied information and scientific papers. Research methodology was described in next part. Decided to do it in three stages: (1) justification of analytical research; (2) data sample collection and analysis; (3) creating of innovative model of regional policy of Rural Tourism development. Each of these stages have sub stages supported by results of previous. In accordance to methodology, analytical part was made in two steps: (1) analysis of statistical information about rural houses availability; (2) analysis of resources needed for successfully Rural Tourism activity. This part gave information about placement of rural houses by geographical regions and defined most attractive geographical regions for Rural Tourism development. The results showed that the highest rural houses availability is in Western geographical region. Other regions have low level of rural houses availability. However, analysis of resources needed for successful Rural Tourism development showed, that all geographical regions are attractive for organizing Rural Tourism activity. Based on this information an innovative qualitative model of Rural Tourism development was created.