Tourism demand modelling and forecasting with artificial neural network models: the Mozambique case study

This study is aimed to model and forecast the tourism demand for Mozambique for the period from January 2004 to December 2013 using artificial neural networks models. The number of overnight stays in Hotels was used as representative of the tourism demand. A set of independent variables were experimented in the input of the model, namely: Consumer Price Index, Gross Domestic Product and Exchange Rates, of the outbound tourism markets, South Africa, United State of America, Mozambique, Portugal and the United Kingdom. The best model achieved has 6.5% for Mean Absolute Percentage Error and 0.696 for Pearson correlation coefficient. A model like this with high accuracy of forecast is important for the economic agents to know the future growth of this activity sector, as it is important for stakeholders to provide products, services and infrastructures and for the hotels establishments to adequate its level of capacity to the tourism demand.

Contribution of plant phytochemicals to organic homeostasis: focus on the aging process and opportunistic infections

Aging process is conceived as a normal stage during human life cycle, but it is also considered a hot topic among scientists and medical community. Alarming rates of premature aging and oxidative stress-related diseases have increasingly affect human individuals. Stress, pollution and exposition to chemical substances are considered the main triggering factors for those conditions; in addition, they also suppress the immune system and, therefore, improve organic vulnerability and occurrence of opportunistic infections [I]. Apart from the associated morbidity and mortality, the increasing rates of antimicrobial resistance improve the severity of the clinical conditions [2]. Botanical preparations possess a multitude of bioactive properties, namely acting as antimicrobials, antioxidants, and homeostasis modulators. Thus, upcoming alternatives, mainly based in plant phytochemicals, are necessary to improve the wellbeing as also life expectancy of individuals. The present study aims to evaluate and to compare both antioxidant and antimicrobial properties of plant extracts rich in phenolic compounds. Among the tested plants, Glycyrrhiza glabra L. (licorice) evidenced the most pronounced free radicals scavenging and antimicrobial effects, followed by Salvia officina/is L. (sage), Thymus vulgaris L. (thyme) and Origanum vulgare L. (oregano). Eucalyptus globulus Labill. (blue gum) and Juglans regia L. (walnut) also showed a high effect, while Pterospartum tridentatum (L.) Willk. (carqueja) and Rubus ulmifolius Schott (elm leaf blackberry) displayed moderate effects, and lastly, Tabebuia impetigirwsa (Mart. ex DC) Standley (pau d'arco), Foeniculum vulgare Miller (fennel), Rosa canina L. (rose hips) and Matricaria recutita L. (chamomile) gave only slight effects. In general, the most pronounced bioactivities were observed in the plant preparations (infusion>decoction>hydromethanolic extract) with higher levels of phenolic compounds (both flavonoids and phenolic acids). The observed synergisms between the phenolic compounds present in the extracts highlight the use of phytochemicals as future health promoters. However, further studies are necessary to understand the effective mode of action of individual phenolic constituents as also the existence of polyvalence relationships between them.