Tourism demand modelling and forecasting with artificial neural network models: the Mozambique case study

This study is aimed to model and forecast the tourism demand for Mozambique for the period from January 2004 to December 2013 using artificial neural networks models. The number of overnight stays in Hotels was used as representative of the tourism demand. A set of independent variables were experimented in the input of the model, namely: Consumer Price Index, Gross Domestic Product and Exchange Rates, of the outbound tourism markets, South Africa, United State of America, Mozambique, Portugal and the United Kingdom. The best model achieved has 6.5% for Mean Absolute Percentage Error and 0.696 for Pearson correlation coefficient. A model like this with high accuracy of forecast is important for the economic agents to know the future growth of this activity sector, as it is important for stakeholders to provide products, services and infrastructures and for the hotels establishments to adequate its level of capacity to the tourism demand.

Optimization of microwave-assisted extration of phenolic compounds from tomao by full factorial design coupled with response surface methodology

Tomato (Lycopersicon esculentum Mill.), apart from being a functional food rich in carotenoids, vitamins and minerals, is also an important source of phenolic compounds [1 ,2]. As antioxidants, these functional molecules play an important role in the prevention of human pathologies and have many applications in nutraceutical, pharmaceutical and cosmeceutical industries. Therefore, the recovery of added-value phenolic compounds from natural sources, such as tomato surplus or industrial by-products, is highly desirable. Herein, the microwave-assisted extraction of the main phenolic acids and flavonoids from tomato was optimized. A S-Ieve! full factorial Box-Behnken design was implemented and response surface methodology used for analysis. The extraction time (0-20 min), temperature (60-180 "C), ethanol percentage (0-100%), solidlliquid ratio (5-45 g/L) and microwave power (0-400 W) were studied as independent variables. The phenolic profile of the studied tomato variety was initially characterized by HPLC-DAD-ESIIMS [2]. Then, the effect of the different extraction conditions, as defined by the used experimental design, on the target compounds was monitored by HPLC-DAD, using their UV spectra and retention time for identification and a series of calibrations based on external standards for quantification. The proposed model was successfully implemented and statistically validated. The microwave power had no effect on the extraction process. Comparing with the optimal extraction conditions for flavonoids, which demanded a short processing time (2 min), a low temperature (60 "C) and solidlliquid ratio (5 g/L), and pure ethanol, phenolic acids required a longer processing time ( 4.38 min), a higher temperature (145.6 •c) and solidlliquid ratio (45 g/L), and water as extraction solvent. Additionally, the studied tomato variety was highlighted as a source of added-value phenolic acids and flavonoids.

Crowdfunding for non-commercial initiatives

Organizations and individuals dealing with non-commercial initiatives are in permanent search for funding. Crowdfunding is an alternative way of collecting funds from general public through Internet-based platforms, which is currently gaining popularity all over the world. There are several research initiatives in that field that show the influence of different factors on the success of campaigns, both with commercial and non-commercial objectives. Non-profit nature of the project is named among key predictors of positive outcome. In this context, the purpose of this work is to check whether the tendencies detected by scholars are valid for non-commercial initiatives, especially those having socially aware objectives, posted on the Belarusian crowdfunding platform Ulej. The method used for validation of the research hypotheses is binary logistic regression and statistical test. The results showed that the dependent variable success is influenced by such independent variables as the funding goal, the sum collected, the number of sponsors and the average pledge. On the other hand, the effect of the duration period is not significant. Inferential analysis shows that there is no difference in the level of success between commercial and non-commercial projects and that social orientation does not increase the likelihood of meeting financial goals. The findings are opposite to those provided in literature. However that could be explained by the short period of functioning of platform and the small number of projects.

Optimization of microwave-assisted extraction of hydrophilic and lipophilic antioxidants from a surplus tomato crop by response surface methodology

Tomato is the second most important vegetable crop worldwide and a rich source of industrially interesting antioxidants. Hence, the microwave-assisted extraction of hydrophilic (H) and lipophilic (L) antioxidants from a surplus tomato crop was optimized using response surface methodology. The relevant independent variables were temperature (T), extraction time (t), ethanol concentration (Et) and solid/liquid ratio (S/L). The concentration-time response methods of crocin and β-carotene bleaching were applied, since they are suitable in vitro assays to evaluate the antioxidant activity of H and L matrices, respectively. The optimum operating conditions that maximized the extraction were as follows: t, 2.25 min; T, 149.2 ºC; Et, 99.1 %; and S/L, 45.0 g/L for H antioxidants; and t, 15.4 min; T, 60.0 ºC; Et, 33.0 %; and S/L, 15.0 g/L for L antioxidants. This industrial approach indicated that surplus tomatoes possess a high content of antioxidants, offering an alternative source for obtaining natural value-added compounds. Additionally, by testing the relationship between the polarity of the extraction solvent and the antioxidant activity of the extracts in H and L media (polarity-activity relationship), useful information for the study of complex natural extracts containing components with variable degrees of polarity was obtained.

Microwave-assisted extraction of phenolic acids and flavonoids and production of antioxidant ingredients from tomato: a nutraceutical-oriented optimization study

The production of natural extracts requires suitable processing conditions to maximize the preservation of the bioactive ingredients. Herein, a microwave-assisted extraction (MAE) process was optimized, by means of response surface methodology (RSM), to maximize the recovery of phenolic acids and flavonoids and obtain antioxidant ingredients from tomato. A 5-level full factorial Box-Behnken design was successfully implemented for MAE optimization, in which the processing time (t), temperature (T), ethanol concentration (Et) and solid/liquid ratio (S/L) were relevant independent variables. The proposed model was validated based on the high values of the adjusted coefficient of determination and on the non-significant differences between experimental and predicted values. The global optimum processing conditions (t=20 min; T=180 ºC; Et=0 %; and S/L=45 g/L) provided tomato extracts with high potential as nutraceuticals or as active ingredients in the design of functional foods. Additionally, the round tomato variety was highlighted as a source of added-value phenolic acids and flavonoids.