Tourism demand modelling and forecasting with artificial neural network models: the Mozambique case study

This study is aimed to model and forecast the tourism demand for Mozambique for the period from January 2004 to December 2013 using artificial neural networks models. The number of overnight stays in Hotels was used as representative of the tourism demand. A set of independent variables were experimented in the input of the model, namely: Consumer Price Index, Gross Domestic Product and Exchange Rates, of the outbound tourism markets, South Africa, United State of America, Mozambique, Portugal and the United Kingdom. The best model achieved has 6.5% for Mean Absolute Percentage Error and 0.696 for Pearson correlation coefficient. A model like this with high accuracy of forecast is important for the economic agents to know the future growth of this activity sector, as it is important for stakeholders to provide products, services and infrastructures and for the hotels establishments to adequate its level of capacity to the tourism demand.

Vapor–liquid equilibrium of binary mixtures containing isopropyl acetate and alkanols at 101.32 kPa

Isobaric vapor-liquid equilibria of binary mixtures of isopropyl acetate plus an alkanol (1-propanol, 2-propanol, 1-butanol, or 2-butanol) were measured at 101.32 kPa, using a dynamic recirculating still. An azeotropic behavior was observed only in the mixtures of isopropyl acetate + 2-propanol and isopropyl acetate + 1-propanol. The application of four thermodynamic consistency tests (the Herington test, the Van Ness test, the infinite dilution test, and the pure component test) showed the high quality of the experimental data. Finally, both NRTL and UNIQUAC activity coefficient models were successfully applied in the correlation of the measured data, with the average absolute deviations in vapor phase composition and temperature of 0.01 and 0.16 K, respectively.