3 resultados para incident duration modelling
em Repositório da Produção Científica e Intelectual da Unicamp
Resumo:
Our objective was to investigate spinal cord (SC) atrophy in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) patients, and to determine whether it correlates with clinical parameters. Forty-three patients with ALS (25 males) and 43 age- and gender-matched healthy controls underwent MRI on a 3T scanner. We used T1-weighted 3D images covering the whole brain and the cervical SC to estimate cervical SC area and eccentricity at C2/C3 level using validated software (SpineSeg). Disease severity was quantified with the ALSFRS-R and ALS Severity scores. SC areas of patients and controls were compared with a Mann-Whitney test. We used linear regression to investigate association between SC area and clinical parameters. Results showed that mean age of patients and disease duration were 53.1 ± 12.2 years and 34.0 ± 29.8 months, respectively. The two groups were significantly different regarding SC areas (67.8 ± 6.8 mm² vs. 59.5 ± 8.4 mm², p < 0.001). Eccentricity values were similar in both groups (p = 0.394). SC areas correlated with disease duration (r = - 0.585, p < 0.001), ALSFRS-R score (r = 0.309, p = 0.044) and ALS Severity scale (r = 0.347, p = 0.022). In conclusion, patients with ALS have SC atrophy, but no flattening. In addition, SC areas correlated with disease duration and functional status. These data suggest that quantitative MRI of the SC may be a useful biomarker in the disease.
Resumo:
The basic reproduction number is a key parameter in mathematical modelling of transmissible diseases. From the stability analysis of the disease free equilibrium, by applying Routh-Hurwitz criteria, a threshold is obtained, which is called the basic reproduction number. However, the application of spectral radius theory on the next generation matrix provides a different expression for the basic reproduction number, that is, the square root of the previously found formula. If the spectral radius of the next generation matrix is defined as the geometric mean of partial reproduction numbers, however the product of these partial numbers is the basic reproduction number, then both methods provide the same expression. In order to show this statement, dengue transmission modelling incorporating or not the transovarian transmission is considered as a case study. Also tuberculosis transmission and sexually transmitted infection modellings are taken as further examples.
Resumo:
The efficacy of the human papillomavirus type 16 (HPV-16)/HPV-18 AS04-adjuvanted vaccine against cervical infections with HPV in the Papilloma Trial against Cancer in Young Adults (PATRICIA) was evaluated using a combination of the broad-spectrum L1-based SPF10 PCR-DNA enzyme immunoassay (DEIA)/line probe assay (LiPA25) system with type-specific PCRs for HPV-16 and -18. Broad-spectrum PCR assays may underestimate the presence of HPV genotypes present at relatively low concentrations in multiple infections, due to competition between genotypes. Therefore, samples were retrospectively reanalyzed using a testing algorithm incorporating the SPF10 PCR-DEIA/LiPA25 plus a novel E6-based multiplex type-specific PCR and reverse hybridization assay (MPTS12 RHA), which permits detection of a panel of nine oncogenic HPV genotypes (types 16, 18, 31, 33, 35, 45, 52, 58, and 59). For the vaccine against HPV types 16 and 18, there was no major impact on estimates of vaccine efficacy (VE) for incident or 6-month or 12-month persistent infections when the MPTS12 RHA was included in the testing algorithm versus estimates with the protocol-specified algorithm. However, the alternative testing algorithm showed greater sensitivity than the protocol-specified algorithm for detection of some nonvaccine oncogenic HPV types. More cases were gained in the control group than in the vaccine group, leading to higher point estimates of VE for 6-month and 12-month persistent infections for the nonvaccine oncogenic types included in the MPTS12 RHA assay (types 31, 33, 35, 45, 52, 58, and 59). This post hoc analysis indicates that the per-protocol testing algorithm used in PATRICIA underestimated the VE against some nonvaccine oncogenic HPV types and that the choice of the HPV DNA testing methodology is important for the evaluation of VE in clinical trials. (This study has been registered at ClinicalTrials.gov under registration no. NCT00122681.).