Survival Extrapolation In The Presence Of Cause Specific Hazards.

Health economic evaluations require estimates of expected survival from patients receiving different interventions, often over a lifetime. However, data on the patients of interest are typically only available for a much shorter follow-up time, from randomised trials or cohorts. Previous work showed how to use general population mortality to improve extrapolations of the short-term data, assuming a constant additive or multiplicative effect on the hazards for all-cause mortality for study patients relative to the general population. A more plausible assumption may be a constant effect on the hazard for the specific cause of death targeted by the treatments. To address this problem, we use independent parametric survival models for cause-specific mortality among the general population. Because causes of death are unobserved for the patients of interest, a polyhazard model is used to express their all-cause mortality as a sum of latent cause-specific hazards. Assuming proportional cause-specific hazards between the general and study populations then allows us to extrapolate mortality of the patients of interest to the long term. A Bayesian framework is used to jointly model all sources of data. By simulation, we show that ignoring cause-specific hazards leads to biased estimates of mean survival when the proportion of deaths due to the cause of interest changes through time. The methods are applied to an evaluation of implantable cardioverter defibrillators for the prevention of sudden cardiac death among patients with cardiac arrhythmia. After accounting for cause-specific mortality, substantial differences are seen in estimates of life years gained from implantable cardioverter defibrillators.

Diagramas de Ellingham e de Van't Hoff: algumas considerações

The main subject of this article is to show the parallelism betwen the Ellingham and Van't Hoff diagrams. The first one is a graphic representation of the changes in the standard Gibbs free energy (deltarGtheta) as a function of T and was introduced by Ellingham in 1944, in order to study metallurgic processes involving oxides and sulphides. On the other hand, the Van't Hoff diagram is a representation of the function ln K versus (1/T). The equivalence between both diagrams is easily demonstrated, making simple mathematical manipulations. In order to show the parallelism between both diagrams, they are presented briefly and two examples are discussed. The comparison of the both diagrams surely will be helpful to students and teachers in their learning and teaching activities, and will certainly enrich important aspects of chemical thermodynamics.

Proposta metodológica utilizando ferramentas de qualidade na avaliação do processo de pulverização

The present work aimed to create a methodology to evaluate the pulverization process with the use of quality tools. It was listed the primary factors, secondary factors, tertiary factors and, with the check list tool support, the list was elaborated. It was evaluated the factors labor, agriculture machine, material and method of 32 pulverization process before pesticide application, in that each factor received a punctuation, having as total sum of 750 points. The medium punctuation to the factors labor, agriculture machine, material and method was 78; 211; 49; 20 and 94 points, respectively. The sum of the factors points for the 32 processes, the minimum value found was 230 and maximum was 620 points. With the proposed methodology, can be identify which common causes of the processes can affect its result.

Aspectos motores da Paralisia Cerebral Espástica diparética : o Nintendo WII 'MARCA REGISTRADA' como atividade motora complementar = Motor aspects of Spastic Cerebral Palsy : the Nintendo WII 'TRADEMARK' as a supplementary motor activity

Universidade Estadual de Campinas . Faculdade de Educação Física

Da preparação preliminar ao nivel olimpico : um estudo de caso no remo brasileiro feminino

Universidade Estadual de Campinas . Faculdade de Educação Física

Desenvolvimento de uma metodologia para reconstrução tridimensional e analise de superficies do corpo humano

Universidade Estadual de Campinas . Faculdade de Educação Física