25 resultados para Modelagem estatística

em Repositório da Produção Científica e Intelectual da Unicamp


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Ten common doubts of chemistry students and professionals about their statistical applications are discussed. The use of the N-1 denominator instead of N is described for the standard deviation. The statistical meaning of the denominators of the root mean square error of calibration (RMSEC) and root mean square error of validation (RMSEV) are given for researchers using multivariate calibration methods. The reason why scientists and engineers use the average instead of the median is explained. Several problematic aspects about regression and correlation are treated. The popular use of triplicate experiments in teaching and research laboratories is seen to have its origin in statistical confidence intervals. Nonparametric statistics and bootstrapping methods round out the discussion.

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This work approaches the forced air cooling of strawberry by numerical simulation. The mathematical model that was used describes the process of heat transfer, based on the Fourier's law, in spherical coordinates and simplified to describe the one-dimensional process. For the resolution of the equation expressed for the mathematical model, an algorithm was developed based on the explicit scheme of the numerical method of the finite differences and implemented in the scientific computation program MATLAB 6.1. The validation of the mathematical model was made by the comparison between theoretical and experimental data, where strawberries had been cooled with forced air. The results showed to be possible the determination of the convective heat transfer coefficient by fitting the numerical and experimental data. The methodology of the numerical simulations was showed like a promising tool in the support of the decision to use or to develop equipment in the area of cooling process with forced air of spherical fruits.

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Relief influences soil texture variability, since it contributes to the time of exposition of the materials to weathering factors. Our work was carried out in the city of Gavião Peixoto (SP), with the objective of characterizing the spatial variability of texture of a dystrophic Red Latosol cultivated with citrus. The hillside was divided into three segments: top, stocking lean and inferior lean. Soil samples were collected in a grid with regular intervals of 50 m, at the depths of 0.0-0.2 m and 0.6-0.8 m, comprising a total of 332 points in an area of 83.5 ha. The data were submitted to descriptive and geostatistics analyses (semivariogram modeling and kriging maps). The spatial behavior of the texture of oxisols is directly related to the relief forms in this study, which controls the direction of surface and subsurface water flows. The concept of homogeneity of clay distribution in the Oxisol profile is a piece of information that can be adjusted by knowing the spatial pattern of this distribution in different relief forms.

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Universidade Estadual de Campinas . Faculdade de Educação Física

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BACKGROUND: The model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) was developed to predict short-term mortality in patients with cirrhosis. There are few reports studying the correlation between MELD and long-term posttransplantation survival. AIM: To assess the value of pretransplant MELD in the prediction of posttransplant survival. METHODS: The adult patients (age >18 years) who underwent liver transplantation were examined in a retrospective longitudinal cohort of patients, through the prospective data base. We excluded acute liver failure, retransplantation and reduced or split-livers. The liver donors were evaluated according to: age, sex, weight, creatinine, bilirubin, sodium, aspartate aminotransferase, personal antecedents, brain death cause, steatosis, expanded criteria donor number and index donor risk. The recipients' data were: sex, age, weight, chronic hepatic disease, Child-Turcotte-Pugh points, pretransplant and initial MELD score, pretransplant creatinine clearance, sodium, cold and warm ischemia times, hospital length of stay, blood requirements, and alanine aminotransferase (ALT >1,000 UI/L = liver dysfunction). The Kaplan-Meier method with the log-rank test was used for the univariable analyses of posttransplant patient survival. For the multivariable analyses the Cox proportional hazard regression method with the stepwise procedure was used with stratifying sodium and MELD as variables. ROC curve was used to define area under the curve for MELD and Child-Turcotte-Pugh. RESULTS: A total of 232 patients with 10 years follow up were available. The MELD cutoff was 20 and Child-Turcotte-Pugh cutoff was 11.5. For MELD score > 20, the risk factors for death were: red cell requirements, liver dysfunction and donor's sodium. For the patients with hyponatremia the risk factors were: negative delta-MELD score, red cell requirements, liver dysfunction and donor's sodium. The regression univariated analyses came up with the following risk factors for death: score MELD > 25, blood requirements, recipient creatinine clearance pretransplant and age donor >50. After stepwise analyses, only red cell requirement was predictive. Patients with MELD score < 25 had a 68.86%, 50,44% and 41,50% chance for 1, 5 and 10-year survival and > 25 were 39.13%, 29.81% and 22.36% respectively. Patients without hyponatremia were 65.16%, 50.28% and 41,98% and with hyponatremia 44.44%, 34.28% and 28.57% respectively. Patients with IDR > 1.7 showed 53.7%, 27.71% and 13.85% and index donor risk <1.7 was 63.62%, 51.4% and 44.08%, respectively. Age donor > 50 years showed 38.4%, 26.21% and 13.1% and age donor <50 years showed 65.58%, 26.21% and 13.1%. Association with delta-MELD score did not show any significant difference. Expanded criteria donors were associated with primary non-function and severe liver dysfunction. Predictive factors for death were blood requirements, hyponatremia, liver dysfunction and donor's sodium. CONCLUSION: In conclusion MELD over 25, recipient's hyponatremia, blood requirements, donor's sodium were associated with poor survival.

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Attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) is characterized by a persistent pattern of inattention and/or hyperactivity/impulsivity. The aim of this research was to contribute more precisely to the diagnosis of ADHD, to propose a battery of neuropsychological assessment and to analyze the contribution of each test. We studied 10 matched pairs of children with ADHD and normal controls (7 to 11 years). Inclusion criteria were: presence of ADHD typical behavior, positive diagnosis of ADHD based on DSM-IV, normal IQ, normal neurological examination and parental consent. We used extensive neuropsychological battery. The results showed differential sensitivity for detection of attentional problems in children with ADHD, although most tests did not reach statistical significance. The item, errors, of WCST revealed statistically significant difference between the two groups: ADHD performance was inferior to controls . In conclusion the neuropsychological assessment battery used in this research contributed to the diagnosis of ADHD.

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The objectives of this work was to estimate the number of soil subsamples considering the classical statistics and geostatistics and determine the spatial variability of soil fertility attributes of an Ultisol, with clay texture, in an area of regenerating natural vegetation in Alegre - ES. Soil samples were collected in a depth of 0.0-0.2 m, at the crossing points of a regular grid, comprising a total of 64 points located at 10 m-intervals. The area presented low fertility soil. Considering a variation of 5% around the mean in the classic statistics, it is necessary a larger number of samples in relation to geostatistics. All the chemical attributes showed moderate to high spatial dependence, except for the effective cation exchange capacity (CECe), which showed pure nugget effect. The spherical semivariogram model gave the best fit to the data. Isoline maps allowed visualizing the differentiated spatial distribution of the contents of soil chemical attributes.

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Remotely sensed imagery has been widely used for land use/cover classification thanks to the periodic data acquisition and the widespread use of digital image processing systems offering a wide range of classification algorithms. The aim of this work was to evaluate some of the most commonly used supervised and unsupervised classification algorithms under different landscape patterns found in Rondônia, including (1) areas of mid-size farms, (2) fish-bone settlements and (3) a gradient of forest and Cerrado (Brazilian savannah). Comparison with a reference map based on the kappa statistics resulted in good to superior indicators (best results - K-means: k=0.68; k=0.77; k=0.64 and MaxVer: k=0.71; k=0.89; k=0.70 respectively for three areas mentioned). Results show that choosing a specific algorithm requires to take into account both its capacity to discriminate among various spectral signatures under different landscape patterns as well as a cost/benefit analysis considering the different steps performed by the operator performing a land cover/use map. it is suggested that a more systematic assessment of several options of implementation of a specific project is needed prior to beginning a land use/cover mapping job.

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Base cutting and feeding into harvesters of plants lying close to the ground surface require an efficient sweeping action of the cutting mechanism. It is not the case of conventional sugarcane harvesters which have rigid blades mounted on discs capable to contaminate the cane with dirt as well as damage the ratoons. The objective of this work was to simulate the sweeping performance of a segmented base cutter. The model was developed using the laws of dynamic. Simulation included two rotational speeds (400 and 600 rpm), two cutting heights (0.12 and 0.13 m) and two disk tilting angles (-10º and -12º). The simulated sweeping angle varied between 56º and 193º, which are very promising as a mean to cutting and feeding cane sticks lying on the ground. Cutting height was the variable that affected sweeping action the most. This behavior indicates the need to have an automatic control of the cutting disk height in order to keep good sweeping performance as the harvester moves forward.

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Development of processing technology and equipments requires new methods and better quality of the processed product. In the continuous drying process, utilization of equipments that promotes an increment in the transfer coefficients becomes of the major interest. The use of vibrational energy has been recommended to the dispersed materials. Such method is based on the use of vibrational energy applied to disperse media. Thus, a literature review on the mass transfer and drying in vibro-fluidized beds was carried out, showing experimental results and mathematical modeling.

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The research approaches recycling of urban waste compost (UWC) as an alternative fertilizer for sugarcane crop and as a social and environmental solution to the solids residuals growth in urban centers. A mathematical model was used in order to know the metal dynamics as decision support tool, aiming to establish of criteria and procedures for UWC's safe use, limited by the amount of heavy metal. A compartmental model was developed from experimental data in controlled conditions and partially checked with field data. This model described the heavy metal transference in the system soil-root-aerial portion of sugarcane plants and concluded that nickel was metal to be concern, since it takes approximately three years to be attenuated in the soil, reaching the aerial portions of the plant at high concentrations. Regarding factors such as clay content, oxide level and soil pH, it was observed that for soil with higher buffering capacity, the transfer of the majority of the metals was slower. This model may become an important tool for the attainment of laws regarding the UWC use, aiming to reduce environment contamination the waste accumulation and production costs.

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The study of female broiler breeders is of great importance for the country as poultry production is one of the largest export items, and Brazil is the second largest broiler meat exporter. Animal behavior is known as a response to the effect of several interaction factors among them the environment. In this way the internal housing environment is an element that gives hints regarding to the bird s thermal comfort. Female broiler breeder behavior, expresses in form of specific pattern the bird s health and welfare. This research had the objective of applying predictive statistical models through the use of simulation, presenting animal comfort scenarios facing distinct environmental conditions. The research was developed with data collected in a controlled environment using Hybro - PG® breeding submitted to distinct levels of temperature, three distinct types of standard ration and age. Descriptive and exploratory analysis were proceeded, and afterwards the modeling process using the Generalized Estimation Equation (GEE). The research allowed the development of the thermal comfort indicators by statistical model equations of predicting female broiler breeder behavior under distinct studied scenarios.

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The rice husk and its ash are abundant and renewable and can be used to obtain alternative building materials. An increase in the consumption of such waste could help minimize the environmental problems from their improper disposal. This study aimed to evaluate the use of ashes as a cargo mineral (filler). However, the rice husk chemically interferes in the conduct of the based cement mixtures. Thus, different mixes cement-rice husk with and without the addition of ash were evaluated in order to highlight the influence of its components (husk; ash), which could otherwise be excluded or be underestimated. Cylindrical samples (test of simple compression and traction by diametrical compression) and samples extracted from manufactured pressed board (test of bending and parallel compression to the surface), were used to evaluate the behavior of different mixtures of components (rice hush; RHA - rice husk ahs). The results of the mechanical tests showed, in general, there is not a statistical difference between the mixtures, which are associated with the chemical suppressive effect of the rice husk ash. The mixture of rice husk of 10 mm, with an addition of 35% of the rice husk ash, is notable for allowing the highest consumption of rice husk and rice husk ash, to reduce 25% the consumption of cement and to allow the storage (without emissions to the atmosphere), around 1.9 ton of CO2 per ton of cement consumed, thus contributing to the reduction of CO2 emissions, which can stimulate rural constructions under an ecological point of view.

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The present investigation evaluated the effects of diazepam used to manage uncooperative behavior of child dental patients. Six participants received placebo or diazepam (0,3 mg/kg weight) before formal dental treatment at total 54 sessions that were all recorded in videotapes. The analysis of recorded child (crying, body and/or head movements, escape and avoidance) and dentist's behavior management procedures (distraction, explanation, positive reinforcement) indicates no differences by using a double-blind Wilcoxon design (p>0.05). It is suggested the necessity of methodological refinement in studies that combine psychological and pharmacological handling strategies.

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Dental materials that release fluoride have been shown to be effective in caries inhibition around restorations. Adhesive materials would also be effective in caries inhibition by sealing and protecting cavity margins from acidic demineralization. This in vitro study tested the hypothesis that composite restorations with a dentin adhesive system have a caries preventive effect similar to that of an adhesive material with fluoride - glass-ionomer cement - on root surfaces. Twenty roots from extracted sound third molars were embedded in polystyrene resin and ground flat. Standardized cavities were prepared in leveled root surfaces and randomly restored with (a) Chelon-Fil (Espe) or (b) Z100/SingleBond (3M). Baseline indentations were measured at 100, 200 and 300 mum from the occlusal margins of each restoration and the surface microhardness values were obtained using a Knoop diamond indenter. A 2.0 mm wide margin around the restorations was submitted to a pH-cycling model, at 37ºC. After that, surface microhardness was measured again, as it was before. The differences between baseline and final surface microhardness were considered for statistical analysis. The median values of differences were (a): -3.8; -0.3; -1.0; and (b): 3.3; 2.5; 1.7, for the distances of 100, 200 and 300 mum, respectively. The Kruskal-Wallis test did not show statistically significant difference between 100, 200 and 300 mum distances in each tested group. There was no difference between the studied materials at the distances of 200 and 300 mum. Chelon-Fil was statistically different from Z100/SingleBond, at 100 mum (p<0.05). Under the studied conditions, the glass-ionomer cement had a higher caries preventive effect than the composite/dentin adhesive restorations.