Survival Extrapolation In The Presence Of Cause Specific Hazards.

Health economic evaluations require estimates of expected survival from patients receiving different interventions, often over a lifetime. However, data on the patients of interest are typically only available for a much shorter follow-up time, from randomised trials or cohorts. Previous work showed how to use general population mortality to improve extrapolations of the short-term data, assuming a constant additive or multiplicative effect on the hazards for all-cause mortality for study patients relative to the general population. A more plausible assumption may be a constant effect on the hazard for the specific cause of death targeted by the treatments. To address this problem, we use independent parametric survival models for cause-specific mortality among the general population. Because causes of death are unobserved for the patients of interest, a polyhazard model is used to express their all-cause mortality as a sum of latent cause-specific hazards. Assuming proportional cause-specific hazards between the general and study populations then allows us to extrapolate mortality of the patients of interest to the long term. A Bayesian framework is used to jointly model all sources of data. By simulation, we show that ignoring cause-specific hazards leads to biased estimates of mean survival when the proportion of deaths due to the cause of interest changes through time. The methods are applied to an evaluation of implantable cardioverter defibrillators for the prevention of sudden cardiac death among patients with cardiac arrhythmia. After accounting for cause-specific mortality, substantial differences are seen in estimates of life years gained from implantable cardioverter defibrillators.

Chronic Continuous Exenatide Infusion Does Not Cause Pancreatic Inflammation And Ductal Hyperplasia In Non-human Primates.

In this study, we aimed to evaluate the effects of exenatide (EXE) treatment on exocrine pancreas of nonhuman primates. To this end, 52 baboons (Papio hamadryas) underwent partial pancreatectomy, followed by continuous infusion of EXE or saline (SAL) for 14 weeks. Histological analysis, immunohistochemistry, Computer Assisted Stereology Toolbox morphometry, and immunofluorescence staining were performed at baseline and after treatment. The EXE treatment did not induce pancreatitis, parenchymal or periductal inflammatory cell accumulation, ductal hyperplasia, or dysplastic lesions/pancreatic intraepithelial neoplasia. At study end, Ki-67-positive (proliferating) acinar cell number did not change, compared with baseline, in either group. Ki-67-positive ductal cells increased after EXE treatment (P = 0.04). However, the change in Ki-67-positive ductal cell number did not differ significantly between the EXE and SAL groups (P = 0.13). M-30-positive (apoptotic) acinar and ductal cell number did not change after SAL or EXE treatment. No changes in ductal density and volume were observed after EXE or SAL. Interestingly, by triple-immunofluorescence staining, we detected c-kit (a marker of cell transdifferentiation) positive ductal cells co-expressing insulin in ducts only in the EXE group at study end, suggesting that EXE may promote the differentiation of ductal cells toward a β-cell phenotype. In conclusion, 14 weeks of EXE treatment did not exert any negative effect on exocrine pancreas, by inducing either pancreatic inflammation or hyperplasia/dysplasia in nonhuman primates.