32 resultados para Prediction error method


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BACKGROUND: The model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) was developed to predict short-term mortality in patients with cirrhosis. There are few reports studying the correlation between MELD and long-term posttransplantation survival. AIM: To assess the value of pretransplant MELD in the prediction of posttransplant survival. METHODS: The adult patients (age >18 years) who underwent liver transplantation were examined in a retrospective longitudinal cohort of patients, through the prospective data base. We excluded acute liver failure, retransplantation and reduced or split-livers. The liver donors were evaluated according to: age, sex, weight, creatinine, bilirubin, sodium, aspartate aminotransferase, personal antecedents, brain death cause, steatosis, expanded criteria donor number and index donor risk. The recipients' data were: sex, age, weight, chronic hepatic disease, Child-Turcotte-Pugh points, pretransplant and initial MELD score, pretransplant creatinine clearance, sodium, cold and warm ischemia times, hospital length of stay, blood requirements, and alanine aminotransferase (ALT >1,000 UI/L = liver dysfunction). The Kaplan-Meier method with the log-rank test was used for the univariable analyses of posttransplant patient survival. For the multivariable analyses the Cox proportional hazard regression method with the stepwise procedure was used with stratifying sodium and MELD as variables. ROC curve was used to define area under the curve for MELD and Child-Turcotte-Pugh. RESULTS: A total of 232 patients with 10 years follow up were available. The MELD cutoff was 20 and Child-Turcotte-Pugh cutoff was 11.5. For MELD score > 20, the risk factors for death were: red cell requirements, liver dysfunction and donor's sodium. For the patients with hyponatremia the risk factors were: negative delta-MELD score, red cell requirements, liver dysfunction and donor's sodium. The regression univariated analyses came up with the following risk factors for death: score MELD > 25, blood requirements, recipient creatinine clearance pretransplant and age donor >50. After stepwise analyses, only red cell requirement was predictive. Patients with MELD score < 25 had a 68.86%, 50,44% and 41,50% chance for 1, 5 and 10-year survival and > 25 were 39.13%, 29.81% and 22.36% respectively. Patients without hyponatremia were 65.16%, 50.28% and 41,98% and with hyponatremia 44.44%, 34.28% and 28.57% respectively. Patients with IDR > 1.7 showed 53.7%, 27.71% and 13.85% and index donor risk <1.7 was 63.62%, 51.4% and 44.08%, respectively. Age donor > 50 years showed 38.4%, 26.21% and 13.1% and age donor <50 years showed 65.58%, 26.21% and 13.1%. Association with delta-MELD score did not show any significant difference. Expanded criteria donors were associated with primary non-function and severe liver dysfunction. Predictive factors for death were blood requirements, hyponatremia, liver dysfunction and donor's sodium. CONCLUSION: In conclusion MELD over 25, recipient's hyponatremia, blood requirements, donor's sodium were associated with poor survival.

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The ONIOM method was used to calculate the proton affinities (PA) of n-alkylamines (CnH2n+1NH2, n = 3 to 6, 8, 10, 12, 14, 16 and 18). The calculations were carried out at several levels (HF, MP2, B3LYP, QCISD(T), ...) using Pople basis sets and at the QCISD(T) level using basis sets developed by the generator coordinate method (GCM) and adapted to effective core potentials. PAs were also obtained through the GCM and high level methods, like ONIOM[QCISD(T)/6-31+G(2df,p):MP2/6-31G+G(d,p))//ONIOM[MP2/6-31+G(d,p):HF/6-31G]. The average error using the GCM, with respect to experimental data, was 3.4 kJ mol-1.

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In this work a fast method for the determination of the total sugar levels in samples of raw coffee was developed using the near infrared spectroscopy technique and multivariate regression. The sugar levels were initially obtained using gravimety as the reference method. Later on, the regression models were built from the near infrared spectra of the coffee samples. The original spectra were pre-treated according to the Kubelka-Munk transformation and multiplicative signal correction. The proposed analytical method made possible the direct determination of the total sugar levels in the samples with an error lower by 8% with respect to the conventional methodology.

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A flow injection method for the quantitative analysis of ketoconazole in tablets, based on the reaction with iron (III) ions, is presented. Ketoconazole forms a red complex with iron ions in an acid medium, with maximum absorbance at 495 nm. The detection limit was estimated to be 1×10--4 mol L-1; the quantitation limit is about 3×10--4 mol L-1 and approximately 30 determinations can be performed in an hour. The results were compared with those obtained with a reference HPLC method. Statistical comparisons were done using the Student's t procedure and the F test. Complete agreement was found at the 0.95 significance level between the proposed flow injection and the HPLC procedures. The two methods present similar precision, i.e., for HPLC the mean relative standard deviation was ca. 1.2% and for FIA ca. 1.6%.

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A rapid and low cost method to determine Cr(VI) in soils based upon alkaline metal extraction at room temperature is proposed as a semi-quantitative procedure to be performed in the field. A color comparison with standards with contents of Cr(VI) in the range of 10 to 150 mg kg-1 was used throughout. For the different types of soils studied, more than 75% of the fortified soluble Cr(VI) were recovered for all levels of spike tested for both the proposed and standard methods. Recoveries of 83 and 99% were obtained for the proposed and the standard methods, respectively, taking into account the analysis of a heavily contaminated soil sample.

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The objective of this work was to compare the soybean crop mapping in the western of Parana State by MODIS/Terra and TM/Landsat 5 images. Firstly, it was generated a soybean crop mask using six TM images covering the crop season, which was used as a reference. The images were submitted to Parallelepiped and Maximum Likelihood digital classification algorithms, followed by visual inspection. Four MODIS images, covering the vegetative peak, were classified using the Parallelepiped method. The quality assessment of MODIS and TM classification was carried out through an Error Matrix, considering 100 sample points between soybean or not soybean, randomly allocated in each of the eight municipalities within the study area. The results showed that both the Overall Classification (OC) and the Kappa Index (KI) have produced values ranging from 0.55 to 0.80, considered good to very good performances, either in TM or MODIS images. When OC and KI, from both sensors were compared, it wasn't found no statistical difference between them. The soybean mapping, using MODIS, has produced 70% of reliance in terms of users. The main conclusion is that the mapping of soybean by MODIS is feasible, with the advantage to have better temporal resolution than Landsat, and to be available on the internet, free of charge.

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Universidade Estadual de Campinas . Faculdade de Educação Física

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Universidade Estadual de Campinas . Faculdade de Educação Física

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Universidade Estadual de Campinas . Faculdade de Educação Física

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Universidade Estadual de Campinas. Faculdade de Educação Física

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Universidade Estadual de Campinas . Faculdade de Educação Física

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Universidade Estadual de Campinas . Faculdade de Educação Física

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Universidade Estadual de Campinas . Faculdade de Educação Física

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Universidade Estadual de Campinas . Faculdade de Educação Física