Brazilian climate policy since 2005: continuity, change and prospective. CEPS Working Document No. 373, February 2013

In the five-year period 2005-09, Brazil has dramatically reduced carbon emissions by around 25% and at the same time has kept a stable economic growth rate of 3.5% annually. This combination of economic growth and emissions reduction is unique in the world. The driver was a dramatic reduction in deforestation in the Amazonian forest and the Cerrado Savannah. This shift empowered the sustainability social forces in Brazil to the point that the national Congress passed (December 2009) a very progressive law internalising carbon constraints and promoting the transition to a low-carbon economy. The transformation in Brazil’s carbon emissions profile and climate policy has increased the potentialities of convergence between the European Union and Brazil. The first part of this paper examines the assumption on which this paper is based, mainly that the trajectory of carbon emissions and climate/energy policies of the G20 powers is much more important than the United Nations multilateral negotiations for assessing the possibility of global transition to a low-carbon economy. The second part analyses Brazil’s position in the global carbon cycle and public policies since 2005, including the progressive shift in 2009 and the contradictory dynamic in 2010-12. The final part analyses the potential for a transition to a low-carbon economy in Brazil and the impact in global climate governance.

spotlight Europe 2013/04 — Mai 2013: Nordafrika im Wandel – Chancen mit und für Europa = North Africa in change - an opportunity for and with Europe

North Africa’s youthful societies look back with pride at their recent uprisings. However, they are also getting frustrated by the fact that the economic outlook is not improving. Europe’s role in the southern Mediterranean area needs to be realigned in order to promote the development of democracy, employment opportunities, and security. Because "there is a great deal of potential for cooperation with Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Libya and Egypt?" argue our authors Christian P. Hanelt and Sven Behrendt.

Adapting to climate change from a regional perspective: in search of a requisite policy and legal framework. Jean Monnet Occasional Paper No. 8/2014

This paper aims to identify the Mediterranean States’ potential in adopting a regional strategy on climate change adaptation. The author proposes a Mediterranean Strategy on Adaptation to Climate Change as the first step to a political/legal regional approach to climate change issues that would supplement the multilateral process under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and the Kyoto Protocol. According to the author such a strategy would enhance cooperation between the EU and other Mediterranean states in various ways. The experience of the EU in regulating climate change and its ever growing knowledge-base on its impacts could serve to guide the other Mediterranean states’ and help bridge their knowledge-base gap on the topic. On the other hand, the support and cooperation of the EU’s Mediterranean partners would provide an opportunity for the EU to address better the challenges the climate change threatens to bring in its southernmost regions. The strategy could eventually even pave the way for the very first regional treaty on climate change that could be negotiated under the auspices of the Regional Seas Programme and the Union for the Mediterranean.

The US-China Joint Announcement on Climate Change: Can the G2 make a difference? CEPS Commentary, 26 November 2014

This Commentary finds that the US-China joint declaration on climate change, issued following the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Summit in Beijing on November 12th, is undoubtedly an important announcement by the two global economic giants responsible for emitting over 30% of the world’s GHG emissions. As such, it needs to be seen as important and relevant – a very positive development towards a new global climate change agreement in Paris. It is a challenge to those that have announced their pledges and are seen as capable of doing more, as well as to those that have not yet announced their intentions. It shows the importance and success of the UN climate change conference in Warsaw last year, when the decision was made that all Parties should announce their commitments by the first quarter of 2015. It also represents a total breakdown of the Kyoto Protocol-style separation in climate change negotiations between countries into Annex 1 and non-Annex 1, with China signalling that it is taking on the leadership role that comes with being a great economic power. In broader terms, it shows that there is scope for cooperation between the two main economic actors, even in the face of competition in other spheres. It is also a challenge to the EU, which was a leader and needs to show that there is a benefit in maintaining its leadership. Finally, agreements are deemed historic only by history. This one is important, and a potential game-changer, on the face of it. But it needs to live up to its promise. There is sufficient uncertainty for us to withhold final judgement and see if its promise materialises through implementation. But, as sober a judgement as we must make on such important matters, this announcement certainly gives us great hope that it is possible to do what needs to be done, and we must wholeheartedly welcome and applaud it.

Economic and climate change pressures on biodiversity in southern Mediterranean coastal areas. MEDPRO Technical Report No. 24/February 2013

This paper establishes and measures key biodiversity and ecosystem health indicators and the number of world heritage sites in coastal areas at global level. It then estimates – econometrically – the indicators’ influence on the provision of tourism values through the marine ecosystem function as a harbour of biodiversity, and as a provider of amenity values and marine cultural identity. The report then focuses on the MEDPRO region, providing some estimates of the potential impact of climate change on these services for a given temperature increase scenario. Finally, the effect on ecosystemrelated tourism is computed for the four MEDPRO social economic scenarios. The analysis is enriched by some quantification of the potential costs of adaptation.

Balancing realism and vision - The prospects of EU-Israel relations in times of change and uncertainty. European Policy Brief, 28 May 2015

In this joint EPC-FSD Policy Brief, Andrea Frontini and Eran Etzion assess the state of play and the future prospects of EU-Israel relations in the light of recent domestic and regional political developments. They argue that, despite frequent cacophony and recurring stalemates, the EU-Israel partnership still has the potential to pursue shared strategic objectives. The two sides have to realign their relations, taking into account new realities and common challenges in the Middle East and Northern Africa region, and the current state of the Middle East Peace Process. More careful differentiation and stronger prioritisation of the policy dossiers at stake are urgently needed. An autonomous but joined up review of the overall relationship, guided by courage, pragmatism and stronger strategic direction, is crucial in order to move ahead.

Asian Middle Classes - Drivers of Political Change? Asia Policy Brief 2014/06, November 2014

Asia watchers have been kept exceptionally busy by recent political developments in the region. An unprecedented landslide victory in India’s general elections, pro-democracy protests in Hong Kong, close elections in Indonesia, a coup in Thailand – the list goes on. As unrelated as these events appear, analysts may find a missing link among a social group that is currently exploding in numbers: Asia’s middle classes. Often discussed simply in terms of its economic potential, Asia’s middle-income population is also flexing its political muscle. A closer look at its influence throughout the region in recent months seems to confirm for the field of politics what economists have known for some time: The rise of the Asian middle classes constitutes one of the most fundamental transformations of our time. The consequences remain to be seen.