The Boston Marathon and the Visa Negotiations between the EU and Russia: Time to get real and positive. CEPS Commentary, 8 May 2013

Against the background of the Boston Marathon bombing as a violent reminder of the lawlessness throughout much of the Northern Caucasus, Michael Emerson calls in this commentary for a fresh direction in the EU’s negotiations with Russia over visa-free travel. While finding that a ‘visa liberalisation’ regime has a very slim prospect of materialising any time soon, on the other hand, he sees realistic possibilities for fast delivery of a ‘virtual visa free regime’ of the multi-year, multi-entry visa, which would be a real and important achievement for EU-Russian relations.

Determinants of Financial Capital Use: Review of theories and implications for rural businesses. Factor Markets Working Paper No. 19, February 2012

This paper presents a review of financial economics literature and offers a comprehensive discussion and systematisation of determinants of financial capital use. In congruence with modern financial literature, it is acknowledged here that real and financial capital decisions are interdependent. While the fundamental role of the (unconstrained) demand for real capital in the demand for finance is acknowledged, the deliverable focuses on three complementary categories of the determinants of financial capital use: i) capital market imperfections; ii) factors mitigating these imperfections or their impacts; and iii) firm- and sector-related factors, which alter the severity of financial constraints and their effects. To address the question of the optimal choice of financial instruments, theories of firm capital structure are reviewed. The deliverable concludes with theory-derived implications for agricultural and non-agricultural rural business’ finance.

A sovereign wealth fund to lift Germany's curse of excess savings. CEPS Policy Brief No. 280, 28 August 2012

As an alternative to the present system of intermediation of the German savings surplus, this paper suggests that the risk-adjusted rate of return could be improved by creating a sovereign wealth fund for Germany (designated DESWF), which could invest excess German savings globally. Such a DESWF would offer German savers a secure vehicle paying a guaranteed positive minimum real interest rate, with a top-up when real investment returns allowed. The vehicle would invest the funds in a portfolio that is highly diversified by geography and asset classes. Positive real returns can be expected in the long run based on positive real global growth. Since, in this case, a significant amount of funds would flow outside the euro area, the euro would depreciate, which would help crisis countries presently struggling to revive growth through exports and to close their external deficits so as to recoup their international credit-worthiness. Target imbalances would gradually disappear and German claims abroad would move from nominal claims on the ECB to diversified real and nominal claims on various private and public foreign entities in a variety of asset classes.

How far do the borders of the west extend? Russian/Polish strategic conflicts in the period 1990-2010. OSW Report, 2010-03-18

From a historical perspective, the last two decades can almost be regarded as a 'golden age' of Polish-Russian relations. This is the first time in several centuries that a sovereign Poland and Russia have been able to develop mutual relations without resorting to force; moreover, they have established a bilateral legal basis and put into practice its provisions on "the inviolability of borders, territorial integrity, non-interference with internal affairs and the nations' right to self-determination. This does not change the fact that since 1990 the atmosphere between the two countries has much more often been chilly and tense. Contrary to the widely-held belief, Polish-Russian conflicts do not stem from genetic Russophobia on the part of Poland, or irrational prejudice on the part of Russia. Their substance is real and concerns strategic issues. At the deepest level, though, this is a dispute about how far the borders of the Western world extend, and about the Russian Federation's sphere of influence. However, it is not a clash between two states; moreover, Poland is certainly not the most important actor in this regard, although due to the historical context and its geographic location, it is one of the countries that lies closest to the 'line of contact', and is therefore particularly entangled in the disagreement.