Regional Business Cycle Synchronization in Europe? Bruges European Economic Research (BEER) Papers 11/June 2007

We analyse regional business cycle synchronization in the Euro Area, using Gross Value Added in 53 NUTS 1 regions for a period of thirty years (1975-2005), detrended by Hodrick-Prescott and the Christiano-Fitzgerald filters. We conclude that, on average, synchronization has increased for the period considered with exceptions during the eighties and the beginning of the nineties. Still, the correlation of the business cycle in some regions with the benchmark remained low or even decreased. Our findings also support the hypothesis of the existence of a ‘national border’ effect.

The Business Cycle on Both Sides of the Atlantic. Jean Monnet/Robert Schuman Paper Series Vol. 14 No. 16, August 2014

The recent economic recession, that began in the US in late 2007 and lasted eighteen months with a heavy toll on society’s wellbeing, has demonstrated the need and urgency of properly understanding the business cycle. This is important because this paper shows that the US business cycle is a leading indicator for the European Union and the Eurozone. Therefore, it can advise governments in the European continent that a change of economic tendency is taking place, which due to globalization will sooner or later affect economies and societies. Thus, understanding the business cycle will give European governments an opportunity to adjust economic and monetary policies to help soften the negative effects on European society.