Macroeconomic Scenarios for the Euro-Mediterranean Area Quantification based on the GEM-E3 Model. MEDPRO Report No. 7, July 2013

Four alternative macroeconomic scenarios for southern Mediterranean countries are quantified in this study with the use of GEM-E3, a general equilibrium model. These are i) the continuation of current policies (business-as-usual scenario), ii) southern Mediterranean–EU cooperation (Euro-Mediterranean Union scenario), iii) a global opening of the southern Mediterranean countries and cooperation with the rest of the Middle East and other developing countries like China (Euro-Mediterranean alliance scenario), and iv) a deterioration in the regional political climate and a failure of cooperation (Euro-Mediterranean under threat scenario). Explicit assumptions on trade integration, infrastructure upgrade, population and governance developments are adopted in each scenario. The simulation results indicate that an infrastructure upgrade and governance improvements in the context of southern Mediterranean–EU cooperation could benefit most of the countries under consideration. The analysis remains important in light of ongoing regional developments and the need to design the best policies to pursue in the aftermath of the Arab spring.

Towards an Effective EU Framework for Road Transport and GHG Emissions. CEPS Special Report No. 141 / July 2016

The adoption of the Paris Agreement at the end of 2015 and the EU’s intended nationally determined contribution (INDC) have confirmed the EU’s commitment to achieve decarbonisation by 2050. Transport accounts for about a quarter of EU greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, representing the second-largest source of GHG emissions in Europe after the energy sector. The transport sector will play a significant role in the EU’s efforts to decarbonise its economy in line with its international commitments. The purpose of this report is to examine different EU policy options to address transport emissions, with a special emphasis on passenger cars. It ‘thinks through’ the options that are currently assessed in the EU and considers how they could be put together in a comprehensive framework. The report concludes with a number of measures to lead EU transport decarbonisation policy. A distinction is made between i) no-regret options and ii) measures for consideration.