History does not move in a straight line. CEPS Commentary, 5 July 2012

Eight years have passed since the EU launched its European Neighbourhood Policy, aimed at inducing its neighbours to the east to converge on modern European values and economic norms. In this Commentary, Michael Emerson reflects on the curious and circuitous turn of events in the region during this period. Michael Emerson is Senior Associate Research Fellow at CEPS.

Seven hazards in Cameron's intended European Policy. CEPS Commentary, 15 January 2013

As the date approaches for Prime Minister Cameron’s long-awaited speech setting out his policy intentions towards the EU, a new CEPS Commentary by Michael Emerson chronicles a plethora of problems his propositions are going to encounter for their successful implementation in the both the British and European interests.

EU-Mercosur trade relations: impacts of exchange rate misalignments on tariffs. CEPS Working Document No. 372, February 2013

The issue of “trade and exchange rate misalignments” is being discussed at the G20, IMF and WTO, following an initiative by Brazil. The main purpose of this paper is to apply the methodology developed by the authors to exam the impacts of misalignment on tariffs in order to analyse the impacts of misalignments on the trade relations between two customs unions – the EU and Mercosur, as well as to explain how tariff barriers are affected. It is divided into several sections: the first summarises the debate on exchange rates at the WTO; the second explains the methodology used to determine exchange rate misalignments; the third and fourth summarises the methodology applied to calculate the impacts of exchange rate misalignments on the level of tariff protection through an exercise of ‘misalignment tariffication’; the fifth reviews the effects of exchange rate misalignments on tariffs and its consequences for the trade negotiations between the two areas; and the last concludes and suggests a way to move the debate forward in the context of regional arrangements.

Europe's continental regionalism. CEPS Working Document No. 375, February 2013

This paper reviews the multiple forms of European continental regionalism, which takes the overall shape of a complex set of concentric circles, with a substructure of a core group within the EU based on the euro and Schengen areas, and several rings of neighbours outside, including the European Economic Area, the regions of the EU’s neighbourhood policy and finally some pan-European organisations. While all world regions have their own unique features, the European case offers some important lessons that should be of interest to other world regions. The first is what appears to be a relatively robust model for single market integration. The second consists of the lessons currently being learned on the hazards on monetary integration without adequate fiscal and political integration. The third lesson is another warning, over the difficulties of anticipating the political dynamics of integration processes once set in motion, often described in Europe as a ‘journey to an unknown destination’. The fourth consists of the EU’s current efforts to develop a comprehensive neighbourhood policy, which is encountering difficult issues of matching ambitious objectives with incentives of adequate weight. Nevertheless, the policy sees a landscape of positive and constructive relations between the EU and its neighbours, in marked contrast to some ugly conflictual or coercive features seen in the cases of other continental hegemons – the three BRIC states of China, India and Russia, but not the fourth one, Brazil.

The Boston Marathon and the Visa Negotiations between the EU and Russia: Time to get real and positive. CEPS Commentary, 8 May 2013

Against the background of the Boston Marathon bombing as a violent reminder of the lawlessness throughout much of the Northern Caucasus, Michael Emerson calls in this commentary for a fresh direction in the EU’s negotiations with Russia over visa-free travel. While finding that a ‘visa liberalisation’ regime has a very slim prospect of materialising any time soon, on the other hand, he sees realistic possibilities for fast delivery of a ‘virtual visa free regime’ of the multi-year, multi-entry visa, which would be a real and important achievement for EU-Russian relations.

The Dutch wish-list for a lighter regulatory touch from the EU. CEPS Commentary, 1 July 2013

The Dutch government set out the results of its review of EU competences on June 21st, under the slogan “European where necessary, national where possible”, claiming that the EU does not adequately respect the principles of subsidiarity and proportionality. It published a list of 54 points for corrective action, which Michael Emerson assesses in this new CEPS Commentary. The political significance of this initiative is heightened because it comes alongside the UK's ongoing review of EU competences, although unlike the British, the Dutch make no mention of secession, treaty changes or repatriation of competences.

Croatia and the structural funds – Doing without an Ottoman Empire bypass bridge. CEPS Commentary, 29 July 2013

In his latest commentary, Associate Senior Fellow Michael Emerson hails Croatia’s accession to the EU as a fine step forward towards the official goal of integration of the whole of the Balkans into the EU. At the same time, he warns of the folly underway of the serious attention being paid by the European Commission to the newest member state’s petition to construct a multi-million euro bridge over a 9-km stretch of Bosnian land (the ‘Neum corridor’) that inconveniently but temporarily interrupts a non-stop drive along Croatia’s Dalmatian coast.

Down the road to Dubrovnik – Doing without an Ottoman Empire bypass bridge. CEPS Commentary, 29 July 2013

As Europeans speed down the road to Dubrovnik, Croatia's treasured jewel of the Adriatic coast, Michael Emerson discusses in a seasonal commentary one topical issue: What to do now over the 9 km of Bosnian coastline that separates north and south Croatia? Several options are under consideration, one of which would mean a very expensive bridge and dubious use of EU structural funds.

Putin’s grand design to destroy the EU’s Eastern Partnership and replace it with a disastrous neighbourhood policy of his own. CEPS Commentary, 17 September 2013

This new Commentary by Michael Emerson and Hrant Kostanyan shows how the pressure exerted by President Putin on Armenia to withdraw from the Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Agreement it had negotiated with the EU and to join the Belarus, Kazakhstan and Russia customs union is but the most recent in a long series of ongoing moves by Russia to destroy the Eastern Partnership. In their view, the message to be hammered home to those unsure of the economic arguments is that you do not have to have an exclusive customs union to enjoy deep integration for goods, services, people and capital, and of course even less for hard security relationships. High-quality free trade agreements are the logical instrument for those who want excellent relations with more than one big neighbour.

British Balance of Competence Reviews, Part I: ‘Competences about right, so far’. EPIN Working Paper No. 35, October 2013

The first in a series for a CEPS-EPIN project entitled “The British Question and the Search for a Fresh European Narrative” this paper is pegged on an ambitious ongoing exercise by the British government to review all the competences of the European Union. The intention is that this should provide a basis for informed debate before the referendum on the UK remaining in the EU or not, which is scheduled for 2017. This paper summarises the first six reviews, each of which runs to around 80 pages, covering foreign policy, development policy, taxation, the single market, food safety, and public health. The present authors then add their own assessments of these materials. While understandably giving due place to British interests, they are of general European relevance. The substantive conclusions of this first set of reviews are that the competences of the EU are judged by respondents to be ‘about right’ on the whole, which came as a surprise to eurosceptic MPs and the tabloid media. Our own view is that the reviews are objective and impressively researched, and these populist complaints are illustrating the huge gap between the views of informed stakeholders and general public opinion, and therefore also the hazard of subjecting the ‘in or out’ choice for decision by referendum. If the referendum is to endorse the UK’s continuing membership there will have to emerge some fresh popular narratives about the EU. The paper therefore concludes with some thoughts along these lines, both for the UK and the EU as a whole.

Enhancing the Brazil-EU Strategic Partnership: From the Bilateral and Regional to the Global. CEPS Paperback. October 2013

This book examines the Brazil-EU Strategic Partnership and is the result of a project that ‘twinned’ five sets of eminent Brazilian and European scholars to investigate themes of undoubted strategic significance: macroeconomics, trade policy, climate change, foreign policy and continental regionalism. Results show that while the two parties cannot claim to determine global policies, they can develop a specialist niche in global affairs, working together in the avant-garde of those searching for workable global solutions, seeking to bridge the frequent wide differences between the West and the rest, or North and South, or old powers and new ones.

An Arab Springboard for EU Foreign Policy? CEPS Paperbacks. January 2012

The EU has not been perceived as reacting very rapidly or effectively to the so-called Arab Spring. Events do appear to validate the idea underpinning the European Security Strategy (ESS) and the European Neighbourhood Policy (ENP): only where governments guarantee to their citizens security, prosperity, freedom and equality, can peace and stability last – otherwise, people will revolt. But in practice, in its southern neighbourhood the EU has acted in precisely the opposite manner, so the Arab Spring is occurring in spite of rather than thanks to EU policy. The ENP stands at a crossroads therefore: Can a new start be made? Which instruments and, in times of austerity, which means can the EU apply to consolidate democratization? And, finally, can the EU continue to wage an ENP without addressing the hard security dimension, especially as the US seem to be withdrawing from crisis management in the region – or shall it continue to leave that to others?

Preparing for a post-Yanukovich Ukraine. CEPS Commentary, 3 February 2014

Surveying the political and economic problems that plague Ukraine today, Michael Emerson warns in this commentary that unless strong and sound fresh governance structures are immediately put into place, the political dynamics will lead to catastrophic radicalisation, chaos and conflict. He calls upon the EU, elected by the Ukrainian street as honorary sponsor of the EuroMaidan, to prepare for this contingency now, observing that emergency situations require emergency measures.