The Business Cycle on Both Sides of the Atlantic. Jean Monnet/Robert Schuman Paper Series Vol. 14 No. 16, August 2014

The recent economic recession, that began in the US in late 2007 and lasted eighteen months with a heavy toll on society’s wellbeing, has demonstrated the need and urgency of properly understanding the business cycle. This is important because this paper shows that the US business cycle is a leading indicator for the European Union and the Eurozone. Therefore, it can advise governments in the European continent that a change of economic tendency is taking place, which due to globalization will sooner or later affect economies and societies. Thus, understanding the business cycle will give European governments an opportunity to adjust economic and monetary policies to help soften the negative effects on European society.

Maastricht 2.0 - Proposed reform of EU sovereign debt rules. Policy Brief #2012/05

The European Union’s regulations governing sovereign debt are based on the principle of equal treatment of all member states. The recommendations we make here concerning changes in European Union sovereign-debt reduction rules take account of national particularities, but are by no means arbitrary in nature. According to the calculations we present here, such reformed regulations would do far more to promote economic growth than would be the case under the Fiscal Compact’s European debt brake. By 2030, real gains in growth will amount to more than 450 billion euros more than the outcome that would presumably be obtained under the European debt brake.