The Putin doctrine: The formation of a conceptual framework for Russian dominance in the post-Soviet area. OSW Commentary No. 131, 28.03.2014

The statements made in recent weeks by Russian officials, and especially President Vladimir Putin, in connection with Moscow’s policy towards Ukraine, may suggest that the emergence of a certain doctrine of Russian foreign and security policy is at hand, especially in relation to the post-Soviet area. Most of the arguments at the core of this doctrine are not new, but recently they have been formulated more openly and in more radical terms. Those arguments concern the role of Russia as the defender of Russian-speaking communities abroad and the guarantor of their rights, as well as specifically understood good neighbourly relations (meaning in fact limited sovereignty) as a precondition that must be met in order for Moscow to recognise the independence and territorial integrity of post-Soviet states. However, the new doctrine also includes arguments which have not been raised before, or have hitherto only been formulated on rare occasions, and which may indicate the future evolution of Russia’s policy. Specifically, this refers to Russia’s use of extralegal categories, such as national interest, truth and justice, to justify its policy, and its recognition of military force as a legitimate instrument to defend its compatriots abroad. This doctrine is effectively an outline of the conceptual foundation for Russian dominance in the post-Soviet area. It offers a justification for the efforts to restore the unity of the ‘Russian nation’ (or more broadly, the Russian-speaking community), within a bloc pursuing close integration (the Eurasian Economic Union), or even within a single state encompassing at least parts of that area. As such, it poses a challenge for the West, which Moscow sees as the main opponent of Russia’s plans to build a new order in Europe (Eurasia) that would undermine the post-Cold War order.

Partnership in times of crisis: challenges for the Eastern European countries' integration with Europe. OSW Point of View Number 36, July 2013

Over the four years since its launch, the Eastern Partnership initiative has created frameworks and mechanisms for the integration of Eastern Partnership countries with the European Union. Despite this, the partner countries have so far made little meaningful progress in modernisation, implementation of reforms or integration with the EU.Since the European Neighbourhood Policy was launched in 2004, the situation in areas of key importance for the EU, such as democratisation, free-market transformations, European integration, political stability and regional security, has not improved significantly. In this context, it is legitimate to ask questions about the extent to which the European Neighbourhood Policy and the Eastern Partnership have brought the Union closer to achieving its declared objectives in the relations with eastern neighbours. What is the underlying cause of the dwindling involvement and declining interest in achieving real progress in integration? How may the events that have been dominating the political agenda – i.e. the EU’s financial crisis, the debate on the future of the Union, but also the political processes taking place within the partner countries – affect the future of mutual relations?

Bosnia i Hercegowina wobec pytania o tozsamosc. Kosowo - kewstia ostatecznego statusu. Prace OSW 10/2003 = Bosnia and Herzegovina: facing the question of identity. Kosovo - the question of final status. OSW Study 10/2003

In June 2003, during a meeting held in Saloniki, the leaders of European Union member states turned to the presidents and heads of the governments of five Western Balkans nations – Croatia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Serbia and Montenegro, Macedonia, and Albania – assuring them that Brussels sees a future for the entire region in Europe and that, without their membership in the EU, the integration of the continent would not be complete. Of these five – actually six, as Kosovo’s protectorate was represented by a separate delegation: the Prime Minister, President, the Head of the international administration, and a representative of the Serbian party – only Croatia can count on quick integration. The membership of the remaining countries is being spoken of (unofficially) in the perspective of ten to fifteen years. However, no EU diplomat is able to answer the question of how the integration of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Kosovo, with the EU, will look in practice – these two organisms exist solely owing to the will and efforts of the international community.

Agricultural and Rural Labour Markets in the EU Candidate Countries of Croatia, Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia and Turkey. Factor Markets Working Paper No. 6, September 2011

This paper provides an overview and comparison of labour markets in agricultural and rural areas in the three candidate countries for the EU membership: Croatia, the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia and Turkey. We analyse and compare the labour market structures and the factors driving them. The analyses are based on the available cross-section and time-series data on agricultural labour structures and living conditions in rural areas. Considerable differences are found among the candidate countries in the importance of the agricultural labour force, between rural and urban labour, and in poverty and living conditions in rural areas. Agricultural and rural labour market structures are the result of demographic and education processes, in addition to labour flows between agricultural and non-agricultural activities, from rural areas to urban ones and migration flows abroad. Declines in the agricultural labour force and rural population are foreseen for each of the candidate countries, but with significant variations between them. Showing different patterns over time, labour market developments in the sector and rural areas have been shaped by the overall labour market institutions, conditions and other factors in each country, such as the legal basis, educational attainment and migration flows, as well as the presence of non-agricultural activities in rural areas.

Economic impact of Southern European member states exiting the eurozone. Policy Brief #2012/06

While Greece defaulting on its sovereign debt and leaving the European Monetary Union would in and of itself have a relatively minor effect on the world economy, such a move could, however, undermine investor confidence in the Portuguese, Spanish and Italian capital markets and thus provoke not only a sovereign default in those states as well, but also a severe worldwide recession. This would in turn reduce economic growth by a total of 17.2 trillion euros in the world’s 42 largest economies in the lead-up to 2020. Hence it is incumbent upon the community of nations to prevent Greece from a sovereign default as well as leaving the euro, and the domino effect that this event could induce.