Transferability of Regional Permafrost Disturbance Susceptibility Modelling Using Generalized Linear and Generalized Additive Models

To effectively assess and mitigate risk of permafrost disturbance, disturbance-p rone areas can be predicted through the application of susceptibility models. In this study we developed regional susceptibility models for permafrost disturbances using a field disturbance inventory to test the transferability of the model to a broader region in the Canadian High Arctic. Resulting maps of susceptibility were then used to explore the effect of terrain variables on the occurrence of disturbances within this region. To account for a large range of landscape charac- teristics, the model was calibrated using two locations: Sabine Peninsula, Melville Island, NU, and Fosheim Pen- insula, Ellesmere Island, NU. Spatial patterns of disturbance were predicted with a generalized linear model (GLM) and generalized additive model (GAM), each calibrated using disturbed and randomized undisturbed lo- cations from both locations and GIS-derived terrain predictor variables including slope, potential incoming solar radiation, wetness index, topographic position index, elevation, and distance to water. Each model was validated for the Sabine and Fosheim Peninsulas using independent data sets while the transferability of the model to an independent site was assessed at Cape Bounty, Melville Island, NU. The regional GLM and GAM validated well for both calibration sites (Sabine and Fosheim) with the area under the receiver operating curves (AUROC) N 0.79. Both models were applied directly to Cape Bounty without calibration and validated equally with AUROC's of 0.76; however, each model predicted disturbed and undisturbed samples differently. Addition- ally, the sensitivity of the transferred model was assessed using data sets with different sample sizes. Results in- dicated that models based on larger sample sizes transferred more consistently and captured the variability within the terrain attributes in the respective study areas. Terrain attributes associated with the initiation of dis- turbances were similar regardless of the location. Disturbances commonly occurred on slopes between 4 and 15°, below Holocene marine limit, and in areas with low potential incoming solar radiation

Redistribution of Soil Organic Matter by Permafrost Disturbance in the Canadian High Arctic

With increased warming in the Arctic, permafrost thaw may induce localized physical disturbance of slopes. These disturbances, referred to as active layer detachments (ALDs), redistribute soil across the landscape, potentially releasing previously unavailable carbon (C). In 2007–2008, widespread ALD activity was reported at the Cape Bounty Arctic Watershed Observatory in Nunavut, Canada. Our study investigated organic matter (OM) composition in soil profiles from ALD-impacted and undisturbed areas. Solid-state 13C nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) and solvent-extractable biomarkers were used to characterize soil OM. Throughout the disturbed upslope profile, where surface soils and vegetation had been removed, NMR revealed low O-alkyl C content and biomarker analysis revealed low concentrations of solvent-extractable compounds suggesting enhanced erosion of labile-rich OM by the ALD. In the disturbed downslope region, vegetation remained intact but displaced material from upslope produced lateral compression ridges at the surface. High O-alkyl content in the surface horizon was consistent with enrichment of carbohydrates and peptides, but low concentrations of labile biomarkers (i.e., sugars) suggested the presence of relatively unaltered labile-rich OM. Decreased O-alkyl content and biomarker concentrations below the surface contrasted with the undisturbed profile and may indicate the loss of well-established pre-ALD surface drainage with compression ridge formation. However, pre-ALD profile composition remains unknown and the observed decreases may result from nominal pre-ALD OM inputs. These results are the first to establish OM composition in ALD-impacted soil profiles, suggesting reallocation of permafrost-derived soil C to areas where degradation or erosion may contribute to increased C losses from disturbed Arctic soils.

Potential Shifts in Canadian High Arctic Sedimentary Organic Matter Composition With Permafrost Active Layer Detachments

Increased temperature and precipitation in Arctic regions have led to deeper thawing and structural instability in permafrost soil. The resulting localized disturbances, referred to as active layer detachments (ALDs), may transport organic matter (OM) to more biogeochemically active zones. To examine this further, solid state cross polarization magic angle spinning 13C nuclear magnetic resonance (CPMAS NMR) and biomarker analysis were used to evaluate potential shifts in riverine sediment OM composition due to nearby ALDs within the Cape Bounty Arctic Watershed Observatory, Nunavut, Canada. In sedimentary OM near ALDs, NMR analysis revealed signals indicative of unaltered plant-derived material, likely derived from permafrost. Long chain acyclic aliphatic lipids, steroids, cutin, suberin and lignin occurred in the sediments, consistent with a dominance of plant-derived compounds, some of which may have originated from permafrost-derived OM released by ALDs. OM degradation proxies for sediments near ALDs revealed less alteration in acyclic aliphatic lipids, while constituents such as steroids, cutin, suberin and lignin were found at a relatively advanced stage of degradation. Phospholipid fatty acid analysis indicated that microbial activity was higher near ALDs than downstream but microbial substrate limitation was prevalent within disturbed regions. Our study suggests that, as these systems recover from disturbance, ALDs likely provide permafrost-derived OM to sedimentary environments. This source of OM, which is enriched in labile OM, may alter biogeochemical patterns and enhance microbial respiration within these ecosystems.

Landscape Patterns of Permafrost Disturbance and Degradation in the Canadian High Arctic

Intensification of permafrost disturbances such as active layer detachments (ALDs) and retrogressive thaw slumps (RTS) have been observed across the circumpolar Arctic. These features are indicators of unstable conditions stemming from recent climate warming and permafrost degradation. In order to understand the processes interacting to give rise to these features, a multidisciplinary approach is required; i.e., interactions between geomorphology, hydrology, vegetation and ground thermal conditions. The goal of this research is to detect and map permafrost disturbance, predict landscape controls over disturbance and determine approaches for monitoring disturbance, all with the goal of contributing to the mitigation of permafrost hazards. Permafrost disturbance inventories were created by applying semi-automatic change detection techniques to IKONOS satellite imagery collected at the Cape Bounty Arctic Watershed Observatory (CBAWO). These methods provide a means to estimate the spatial distribution of permafrost disturbances for a given area for use as an input in susceptibility modelling. Permafrost disturbance susceptibility models were then developed using generalized additive and generalized linear models (GAM, GLM) fitted to disturbed and undisturbed locations and relevant GIS-derived predictor variables (slope, potential solar radiation, elevation). These models successfully delineated areas across the landscape that were susceptible to disturbances locally and regionally when transferred to an independent validation location. Permafrost disturbance susceptibility models are a first-order assessment of landscape susceptibility and are promising for designing land management strategies for remote permafrost regions. Additionally, geomorphic patterns associated with higher susceptibility provide important knowledge about processes associated with the initiation of disturbances. Permafrost degradation was analyzed at the CBAWO using differential interferometric synthetic aperture radar (DInSAR). Active-layer dynamics were interpreted using inter-seasonal and intra-seasonal displacement measurements and highlight the importance of hydroclimatic factors on active layer change. Collectively, these research approaches contribute to permafrost monitoring and the assessment of landscape-scale vulnerability in order to develop permafrost disturbance mitigation strategies.

Short Communication Over-Winter Channel Bed Temperature Regimes Generated by Contrasting Snow Accumulation in a High Arctic River

We report experimental results of near-surface winter temperatures along and adjacent to the channel bed of a High Arctic river on Melville Island, Canada. Temperature loggers 5cm below the ground surface in areas where the terrain suggests varying snow accumulation patterns revealed that the maximum winter difference between air and near-surface temperatures ranged from 0 to +30°C during the winter of 2012–13, and that shallow near-surface freezing conditions were delayed for up to 21 days in some locations. Cooling to -10°C was delayed for up to 117 days. Modelled temperature at the top of permafrost indicates that permafrost at locations with thick snow can be up to 8°C warmer than those with thin snow. This thermal evidence for an ameliorated surface environment indicates the potential for substantial extended microbial and biogeochemical cycling during early winter. Rapid thaw of the bed during initiation of snowmelt in spring also indicates a high degree of hydrological connectivity. Therefore, snow-filled channels may contribute to biogeochemical and aquatic cycling in High Arctic rivers.

Climate and Terrain Characteristics Linked to Mud Ejection Occurrence in the Canadian High Arctic

Pressurised slurries of fine-grained sediment expelled from the base of the active layer have been observed in recent years in the High Arctic. Such mud ejections, however, are poorly understood in terms of how exactly climate and landscape factors determine when and where they occur. Mud ejections at the Cape Bounty Arctic Watershed Observatory, Melville Island, Nunavut, were systematically mapped in 2012 and 2013, and this was combined with observations of mud ejection activity and climatic measurements carried out since 2003. The mud ejections occur late in the melt season during warm years and closely following major rainfall events. High-resolution satellite imagery demonstrates that mud ejections are associated with polar semi-desert vegetative settings, flat or low-sloping terrain and south-facing slopes. The localised occurrence of mud ejections appears to be related to differential soil moisture retention.

Terrain Controls and Landscape-Scale Susceptibility Modelling of Active-Layer Detachments, Sabine Peninsula, Melville Island, Nunavut

Modelling the susceptibility of permafrost slopes to disturbance can identify areas at risk to future disturbance and result in safer infrastructure and resource development in the Arctic. In this study, we use terrain attributes derived from a digital elevation model, an inventory of permafrost slope disturbances known as active-layer detachments (ALDs) and generalised additive modelling to produce a map of permafrost slope disturbance susceptibility for an area on northern Melville Island, in the Canadian High Arctic. By examining terrain variables and their relative importance, we identified factors important for initiating slope disturbance. The model was calibrated and validated using 70 and 30 per cent of a data-set of 760 mapped ALDs, including disturbed and randomised undisturbed samples. The generalised additive model calibrated and validated very well, with areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.89 and 0.81, respectively, demonstrating its effectiveness at predicting disturbed and undisturbed samples. ALDs were most likely to occur below the marine limit on slope angles between 3 and 10° and in areas with low values of potential incoming solar radiation (north-facing slopes).