Transferability of Regional Permafrost Disturbance Susceptibility Modelling Using Generalized Linear and Generalized Additive Models

To effectively assess and mitigate risk of permafrost disturbance, disturbance-p rone areas can be predicted through the application of susceptibility models. In this study we developed regional susceptibility models for permafrost disturbances using a field disturbance inventory to test the transferability of the model to a broader region in the Canadian High Arctic. Resulting maps of susceptibility were then used to explore the effect of terrain variables on the occurrence of disturbances within this region. To account for a large range of landscape charac- teristics, the model was calibrated using two locations: Sabine Peninsula, Melville Island, NU, and Fosheim Pen- insula, Ellesmere Island, NU. Spatial patterns of disturbance were predicted with a generalized linear model (GLM) and generalized additive model (GAM), each calibrated using disturbed and randomized undisturbed lo- cations from both locations and GIS-derived terrain predictor variables including slope, potential incoming solar radiation, wetness index, topographic position index, elevation, and distance to water. Each model was validated for the Sabine and Fosheim Peninsulas using independent data sets while the transferability of the model to an independent site was assessed at Cape Bounty, Melville Island, NU. The regional GLM and GAM validated well for both calibration sites (Sabine and Fosheim) with the area under the receiver operating curves (AUROC) N 0.79. Both models were applied directly to Cape Bounty without calibration and validated equally with AUROC's of 0.76; however, each model predicted disturbed and undisturbed samples differently. Addition- ally, the sensitivity of the transferred model was assessed using data sets with different sample sizes. Results in- dicated that models based on larger sample sizes transferred more consistently and captured the variability within the terrain attributes in the respective study areas. Terrain attributes associated with the initiation of dis- turbances were similar regardless of the location. Disturbances commonly occurred on slopes between 4 and 15°, below Holocene marine limit, and in areas with low potential incoming solar radiation

Redistribution of Soil Organic Matter by Permafrost Disturbance in the Canadian High Arctic

With increased warming in the Arctic, permafrost thaw may induce localized physical disturbance of slopes. These disturbances, referred to as active layer detachments (ALDs), redistribute soil across the landscape, potentially releasing previously unavailable carbon (C). In 2007–2008, widespread ALD activity was reported at the Cape Bounty Arctic Watershed Observatory in Nunavut, Canada. Our study investigated organic matter (OM) composition in soil profiles from ALD-impacted and undisturbed areas. Solid-state 13C nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) and solvent-extractable biomarkers were used to characterize soil OM. Throughout the disturbed upslope profile, where surface soils and vegetation had been removed, NMR revealed low O-alkyl C content and biomarker analysis revealed low concentrations of solvent-extractable compounds suggesting enhanced erosion of labile-rich OM by the ALD. In the disturbed downslope region, vegetation remained intact but displaced material from upslope produced lateral compression ridges at the surface. High O-alkyl content in the surface horizon was consistent with enrichment of carbohydrates and peptides, but low concentrations of labile biomarkers (i.e., sugars) suggested the presence of relatively unaltered labile-rich OM. Decreased O-alkyl content and biomarker concentrations below the surface contrasted with the undisturbed profile and may indicate the loss of well-established pre-ALD surface drainage with compression ridge formation. However, pre-ALD profile composition remains unknown and the observed decreases may result from nominal pre-ALD OM inputs. These results are the first to establish OM composition in ALD-impacted soil profiles, suggesting reallocation of permafrost-derived soil C to areas where degradation or erosion may contribute to increased C losses from disturbed Arctic soils.

Landscape Patterns of Permafrost Disturbance and Degradation in the Canadian High Arctic

Intensification of permafrost disturbances such as active layer detachments (ALDs) and retrogressive thaw slumps (RTS) have been observed across the circumpolar Arctic. These features are indicators of unstable conditions stemming from recent climate warming and permafrost degradation. In order to understand the processes interacting to give rise to these features, a multidisciplinary approach is required; i.e., interactions between geomorphology, hydrology, vegetation and ground thermal conditions. The goal of this research is to detect and map permafrost disturbance, predict landscape controls over disturbance and determine approaches for monitoring disturbance, all with the goal of contributing to the mitigation of permafrost hazards. Permafrost disturbance inventories were created by applying semi-automatic change detection techniques to IKONOS satellite imagery collected at the Cape Bounty Arctic Watershed Observatory (CBAWO). These methods provide a means to estimate the spatial distribution of permafrost disturbances for a given area for use as an input in susceptibility modelling. Permafrost disturbance susceptibility models were then developed using generalized additive and generalized linear models (GAM, GLM) fitted to disturbed and undisturbed locations and relevant GIS-derived predictor variables (slope, potential solar radiation, elevation). These models successfully delineated areas across the landscape that were susceptible to disturbances locally and regionally when transferred to an independent validation location. Permafrost disturbance susceptibility models are a first-order assessment of landscape susceptibility and are promising for designing land management strategies for remote permafrost regions. Additionally, geomorphic patterns associated with higher susceptibility provide important knowledge about processes associated with the initiation of disturbances. Permafrost degradation was analyzed at the CBAWO using differential interferometric synthetic aperture radar (DInSAR). Active-layer dynamics were interpreted using inter-seasonal and intra-seasonal displacement measurements and highlight the importance of hydroclimatic factors on active layer change. Collectively, these research approaches contribute to permafrost monitoring and the assessment of landscape-scale vulnerability in order to develop permafrost disturbance mitigation strategies.