Survival analysis: a tool in the study of post-harvest diseases in peaches

Survival analysis is applied when the time until the occurrence of an event is of interest. Such data are routinely collected in plant diseases, although applications of the method are uncommon. The objective of this study was to use two studies on post-harvest diseases of peaches, considering two harvests together and the existence of random effect shared by fruits of a same tree, in order to describe the main techniques in survival analysis. The nonparametric Kaplan-Meier method, the log-rank test and the semi-parametric Cox's proportional hazards model were used to estimate the effect of cultivars and the number of days after full bloom on the survival to the brown rot symptom and the instantaneous risk of expressing it in two consecutive harvests. The joint analysis with baseline effect, varying between harvests, and the confirmation of the tree effect as a grouping factor with random effect were appropriate to interpret the phenomenon (disease) evaluated and can be important tools to replace or complement the conventional analysis, respecting the nature of the variable and the phenomenon.

The development of a scale to measure concepts of schizophrenia: experience among Brazilian psychiatrists

INTRODUCTION: Among psychiatric disorders schizophrenia is often said to be the condition with the most disputed definition.The Bleulerian and Schneiderian approaches have given rise to diagnostic formulations that have varied with time and place. Controversies over the concept of schizophrenia were examined within European/North American settings in the early 1970s but little has since been reported on the views of psychiatrists in developing countries. In Brazil both concepts are referred to in the literature. A scale was developed to measure adherence to Bleulerian and Schneiderian concepts among psychiatrists working in S. Paulo. METHODOLOGY: A self-reported questionnaire comprising seventeen visual analogue-scale statements related to Bleulerian and Schneiderian definitions of Shizophrenia, plus sociodemographic and training characteristics, was distributed to a non-randomised sample of 150 psychiatrists. The two sub-scales were assessed by psychometric methods for internal consistency, sub-scale structure and test-retest reliability. Items selected according to internal consistency were examined by a two-factor model exploratory factor analysis. Intraclass correlation coefficients described the stability of the scale. RESULTS: Replies were received from 117 psychiatrists (mean age 36 (SD 7.9)), 74% of whom were made and 26% female. The Schneiderian scale showed better overall internal consistency than the Bleulerian scale. Intra-class correlation coefficients for test-retest comparisons were between 0.5 and 0.7 for Schneiderian items and 0.2 and 0.7 for Bleulerian items. There was no negative association between Bleulerian and Schneiderian scale scores, suggesting that respondents may hold both concepts. Place of training was significantly associated with the respondent's opinion; disagreement with a Bleulerian standpoint predominated for those trained at the University of S. Paulo. CONCLUSIONS: The less satisfactory reliability for the Bleulerian sub-scale limits confidence in the whole scale but on the other hand this questionnaire contributes to the understanding of the controversy over Bleulerian and Schneiderian models for conceptualisation of schizophrenia, the former requiring more inference and therefore being prone to unreliability.

Fuzzy linguistic model for evaluating the risk of neonatal death

OBJECTIVE: To introduce a fuzzy linguistic model for evaluating the risk of neonatal death. METHODS: The study is based on the fuzziness of the variables newborn birth weight and gestational age at delivery. The inference used was Mamdani's method. Neonatologists were interviewed to estimate the risk of neonatal death under certain conditions and to allow comparing their opinions and the model values. RESULTS: The results were compared with experts' opinions and the Fuzzy model was able to capture the expert knowledge with a strong correlation (r=0.96). CONCLUSIONS: The linguistic model was able to estimate the risk of neonatal death when compared to experts' performance.

Determinants of salivary cotinine level: a population-based study in Brazil

OBJECTIVE: A cross-sectional population-based study was conducted to assess, in active smokers, the relationship of number of cigarettes smoked and other characteristics to salivary cotinine concentrations. METHODS: A random sample of active smokers aged 15 years or older was selected using a stepwise cluster sample strategy, in the year 2000 in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. The study included 401 subjects. Salivary cotinine concentration was determined using gas chromatography with nitrogen-phosphorus detection. A standard questionnaire was used to collect demographic and smoking behavioral data. The relation between the number of cigarettes smoked in the last 24h and cotinine level was examined by means of a nonparametric fitting technique of robust locally weighted regression. RESULTS: Significantly (p<0.05) higher adjusted mean cotinine levels were found in subjects smoking their first cigarette within five minutes after waking up, and in those smoking 1-20 cigarettes in the last 24h who reported inhaling more than ½ the time. In those smoking 1-20 cigarettes, the slope was significantly higher for those subjects waiting for more than five minutes before smoking their first cigarette after waking up, and those smoking "light" cigarettes when compared with their counterparts. These heterogeneities became negligible and non-significant when subjects with cotinine >40 ng/mL per cigarette were excluded. CONCLUSIONS: There was found a positive association between self-reporting smoking five minutes after waking up, and inhaling more than ½ the time are consistent and higher cotinine levels. These can be markers of dependence and higher nicotine intake. Salivary cotinine proved to be a useful biomarker of recent smoking and can be used in epidemiological studies and smoking cessation programs.

Surveillance of mother-to-child HIV transmission: socioeconomic and health care coverage indicators

OBJECTIVE: To identify clustering areas of infants exposed to HIV during pregnancy and their association with indicators of primary care coverage and socioeconomic condition. METHODS: Ecological study where the unit of analysis was primary care coverage areas in the city of Porto Alegre, Southern Brazil, in 2003. Geographical Information System and spatial analysis tools were used to describe indicators of primary care coverage areas and socioeconomic condition, and estimate the prevalence of liveborn infants exposed to HIV during pregnancy and delivery. Data was obtained from Brazilian national databases. The association between different indicators was assessed using Spearman's nonparametric test. RESULTS: There was found an association between HIV infection and high birth rates (r=0.22, p<0.01) and lack of prenatal care (r=0.15, p<0.05). The highest HIV infection rates were seen in areas with poor socioeconomic conditions and difficult access to health services (r=0.28, p<0.01). The association found between higher rate of prenatal care among HIV-infected women and adequate immunization coverage (r=0.35, p<0.01) indicates that early detection of HIV infection is effective in those areas with better primary care services. CONCLUSIONS: Urban poverty is a strong determinant of mother-to-child HIV transmission but this trend can be fought with health surveillance at the primary care level.

Premature thelarche: identification of clinical and laboratory data for the diagnosis of precocious puberty

PURPOSE: Two groups of girls with premature breast development were studied retrospectively. We tried to identify clinical, radiological, and hormonal parameters that could distinguish between a benign, nonprogressive premature thelarche and a true precocious puberty. METHODS: The clinical outcome of 88 girls with breast enlargement before 6.1 years of age was analyzed. Taking into account the progression of their sexual maturation, we allocated the children into 2 groups: "Isolated Premature Thelarche" (n = 63) and "Precocious Puberty" (n = 25) groups. Chronological and bone ages, height and growth velocity centiles, computerized tomography of hypothalamus-pituitary area, pelvic ultrasonography, gonadotropin response to luteinizing hormone-releasing hormone stimulation as well as basal levels of luteinizing hormone, follicle-stimulating hormone, estradiol, and prolactin were studied in both groups. Statistical analysis were performed using the Student t test to compare the sample means. Fisher's exact test and chi² test were used to analyze the nonparametric variables. RESULTS: Isolated premature thelarche most frequently affected girls younger than 2 years who presented exaggerated follicle-stimulating hormone response to luteinizing hormone-releasing hormone stimulation test. The precocious puberty group had higher initial stature, accelerated growth rate and bone age, increased uterine and ovarian volumes, high spontaneous luteinizing hormone levels by immunofluorimetric assay, as well as a high luteinizing hormone response and peak luteinizing hormone/follicle-stimulating hormone ratio after luteinizing hormone-releasing hormone stimulation. CONCLUSION: At initial presentation, girls who undergo true precocious puberty present advanced bone age, increased uterine and ovarian volumes in addition to breast enlargement, as well as an luteinizing hormone-predominant response after a luteinizing hormone-releasing hormone stimulation test.

Proposal Intensity Adequacy of Expiratory Effort and Heart Rate Behavior During the Valsalva Maneuver in Preadolescents

Background: When performing the Valsalva maneuver (VM), adults and preadolescents produce the same expiratory resistance values. Objective: To analyze heart rate (HR) in preadolescents performing VM, and propose a new method for selecting expiratory resistance. Method: The maximal expiratory pressure (MEP) was measured in 45 sedentary children aged 9-12 years who subsequently performed VM for 20 s using an expiratory pressure of 60%, 70%, or 80% of MEP. HR was measured before, during, and after VM. These procedures were repeated 30 days later, and the data collected in the sessions (E1, E2) were analyzed and compared in periods before, during (0-10 and 10-20 s), and after VM using nonparametric tests. Results: All 45 participants adequately performed VM in E1 and E2 at 60% of MEP. However, only 38 (84.4%) and 25 (55.5%) of the participants performed the maneuver at 70% and 80% of MEP, respectively. The HR delta measured during 0-10 s and 10-20 s significantly increased as the expiratory effort increased, indicating an effective cardiac autonomic response during VM. However, our findings suggest the VM should not be performed at these intensities. Conclusion: HR increased with all effort intensities tested during VM. However, 60% of MEP was the only level of expiratory resistance that all participants could use to perform VM. Therefore, 60% of MEP may be the optimal expiratory resistance that should be used in clinical practice.

Spatial and seasonal trends of a natural population of Biomphalaria occidentalis in northeastern Argentina

This study aims to analyze the age of a population of Biomphalaria occidentalis on a pound of Riachuelo river basin, wich is one of the three most important Middle Paraná river affluents in Corrientes province. Samples were drawn from three stations, were spatial and temporal numerical variations of the snail, as well as its relation with different environmental parameters, mainly temperature, rainfall, pH and conductivity, were analyzed. Snail abundance is given in number of individuals/hour. The differences between the three sampling stations, estimated by nonparametric tests, was nonsignificant. A relative scale to the greatest shell diameter was employed to build the age pyramids. Temporal fluctuations of snail abundance correlated negatively with the highest monthly accumulated temperatures (P < 0.05). Although different floristic compositions were observed at the three stations, no significant numerical variations were detected in B. occidentalis spatial distribution. Reproductive activity took place between March-April and November with overlapping cohort system. During summer (December-Febuary) mortality increased along with temperature and reproductive activity was not evident.

Activity of 9-acridanone-hydrazone drugs detected at the pre-postural phase, in the experimental schistosomiasis mansoni

The compound Ro-15.5458/000, derivative in the class of 9-acridanone-hydrazones, was found to be effective against Schistosoma mansoni in mice, killing almost all the skin schistosomules (24 hr after infection), when administered at the dose of 100 mg/kg. In experiments carried out with Cebus monkeys, the drug was shown to be fully effective at 25 mg/kg, 7 days after infection. These data, associated with the good results obtained earlier at the post-postural phase of schistosomiasis, allow the inference that this promising compound may be important in the set of antischistosomal drugs, depending on further toxicological and clinical tests.

Usefulness of microsatellite typing in population genetic studies of Trypanosoma cruzi

Through microsatellite analysis of 53 monoclonal populations of Trypanosoma cruzi, we found a remarkable degree of genetic polymorphism with no single multilocus genotype being observed more than once. The microsatellite profile proved to be stable during 70 generations of the CL Brener clone in culture. The microsatellite profiling presented also high diagnostic sensitivity since DNA amplifications could be achieved with less than 100 fg DNA, corresponding to half parasite total DNA content. Based on these technical attributes the microsatellite assay turns out to be an important tool for direct typing T. cruzi in biological samples. By using this approach we were able to type T. cruzi in feces of artificially infected bugs and in single cells sorted by FACS. The microsatellites have shown to be excellent markers for T. cruzi phylogenetic reconstruction. We used maximum parsimony based on the minimum number of mutational steps to build an unrooted Wagner network, which confirms previous conclusions based on the analysis of the D7 domain of the LSU rDNA gene that T. cruzi is composed by two major groups. We also obtained evidence that strains belonging to rRNA group 2 are subdivided into two genetically distant clusters, and that one of these clusters is more related to rRNA group 1/2. These results suggest different origins for these strains.

Naturally acquired antibodies to merozoite surface protein (MSP)-1(19) and cumulative exposure to Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax in remote populations of the Amazon Basin of Brazil

To infer recent patterns of malaria transmission, we measured naturally acquired IgG antibodies to the conserved 19-kDa C-terminal region of the merozoite surface protein (MSP)-1 of both Plasmodium vivax (PvMSP-1(19)) and Plasmodium falciparum (PfMSP-1(19)) in remote malaria-exposed populations of the Amazon Basin. Community-based cross-sectional surveys were carried out between 2002 and 2003 in subjects of all age groups living along the margins of the Unini and Jaú rivers, Northwestern Brazil. We found high prevalence rates of IgG antibodies to PvMSP-1(19) (64.0 - 69.6%) and PfMSP-1(19) (51.6 - 52.0%), with significant differences in the proportion of subjects with antibodies to PvMSP-1(19) according to age, place of residence and habitual involvement in high-risk activities, defining some groups of highly exposed people who might be preferential targets of malaria control measures. In contrast, no risk factor other than age was significantly associated with seropositivity to PfMSP-1(19). Only 14.1% and 19.3% of the subjects tested for antibodies to PvMSP-1(19) and PfMSP-1(19) in consecutive surveys (142 - 203 days apart) seroconverted or had a three fold or higher increase in the levels of antibodies to these antigens. We discuss the extent to which serological data correlated with the classical malariometric indices and morbidity indicators measured in the studied population at the time of the seroprevalence surveys and highlight some limitations of serological data for epidemiological inference.

Polymorphism analysis of the CTLA-4 gene in paracoccidioidomycosis patients

The CTLA-4 protein is expressed in activated T cells and plays an essential role in the immune response through its regulatory effect on T cell activation. Polymorphisms of the CTLA-4 gene have been correlated with autoimmune, neoplastic and infectious illnesses. This work aimed to verify possible associations between single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in CTLA-4, -318C/T in the promoter and +49A/G in exon 1 and paracoccidioidomycosis (PCM) caused by Paracoccidioides brasiliensis. For this purpose, 66 chronic form PCM patients and 76 healthy controls had their allele, genotype and haplotype frequencies determined. The genetic admixture structure of the patients and controls was evaluated to eliminate ancestral bias. The comparison of frequencies indicated no significant differences between patients and controls that could link the SNPs to PCM. Groups were admixture matched with no difference observed in population ancestry inference, indicating that the absence of association between CTLA-4 polymorphisms and PCM could not be attributed to ancestral bias. This study showed that there was no association between the CTLA-4 SNPs -318 and +49 and the resistance or susceptibility to PCM.

The use of rapid dengue diagnostic tests in a routine clinical setting in a dengue-endemic area of Colombia

There is insufficient evidence of the usefulness of dengue diagnostic tests under routine conditions. We sought to analyse how physicians are using dengue diagnostics to inform research and development. Subjects attending 14 health institutions in an endemic area of Colombia with either a clinical diagnosis of dengue or for whom a dengue test was ordered were included in the study. Patterns of test-use are described herein. Factors associated with the ordering of dengue diagnostic tests were identified using contingency tables, nonparametric tests and logistic regression. A total of 778 subjects were diagnosed with dengue by the treating physician, of whom 386 (49.5%) were tested for dengue. Another 491 dengue tests were ordered in subjects whose primary diagnosis was not dengue. Severe dengue classification [odds ratio (OR) 2.2; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.1-4.5], emergency consultation (OR 1.9; 95% CI 1.4-2.5) and month of the year (OR 3.1; 95% CI 1.7-5.5) were independently associated with ordering of dengue tests. Dengue tests were used both to rule in and rule out diagnosis. The latter use is not justified by the sensitivity of current rapid dengue diagnostic tests. Ordering of dengue tests appear to depend on a combination of factors, including physician and institutional preferences, as well as other patient and epidemiological factors.

Entrepreneurial decision-making using the knightian uncertainty approach

The article discusses the behavioral aspects that affect the entrepreneurs' decision making under the Knightian uncertainty approach. Since the profit arising from entrepreneurial activity represents the reward of an immeasurable and subjective risk, it has been hypothesized that innovative entrepreneurs have excessive optimism and confidence, which leads them to invest in high-risk activities. A behavioral model of decision making under uncertainty is used to test the hypothesis of overconfidence. This model is based on Bayesian inference, which allows us to model the assumption that these entrepreneurs are overconfident. We conclude that, under the hypothesis of overconfidence, these entrepreneurs decide to invest, despite the fact that the expected utility model indicates the contrary. This theoretical finding could explain why there are a large number of business failures in the first years of activity.

Prevalence of nursing diagnosis of fluid volume excess in patients undergoing hemodialysis

Objective: To identify the prevalence of nursing diagnosis of fluid volume excess and their defining characteristics in hemodialysis patients and the association between them. Method: Cross-sectional study conducted in two steps. We interviewed 100 patients between the months of December 2012 and April 2013 in a teaching hospital and one hemodialysis clinic. The inference was performed by diagnostician nurses between July and September 2013. Results: The diagnostic studied was identified in 82% of patients. The characteristics that were statistically associated: bounding pulses, pulmonary congestion, jugular vein distention, edema, change in electrolytes, weight gain, intake greater than output and abnormal breath sounds. Among these, edema and weight gain had the highest chances for the development of this diagnostic. Conclusion: The analyzed diagnostic is prevalent in this population and eight characteristics presented significant association.