Exploring the interplay between Framing and Securitization theory: the case of the Arab Spring protests in Bahrain

This article advances the theoretical integration between securitization theory and the framing approach, resulting in a set of criteria hereby called security framing. It seeks to make a twofold contribution: to sharpen the study of the ideational elements that underlie the construction of threats, and to advance towards a greater assessment of the audience's preferences. The case study under examination is the 2011 military intervention of the countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council in Bahrain. The security framing of this case will help illuminate the dynamics at play in one of the most important recent events in Gulf politics.

Yellow fever impact on brown howler monkeys (Alouatta guariba clamitans) in Argentina: a metamodelling approach based on population viability analysis and epidemiological dynamics

In South America, yellow fever (YF) is an established infectious disease that has been identified outside of its traditional endemic areas, affecting human and nonhuman primate (NHP) populations. In the epidemics that occurred in Argentina between 2007-2009, several outbreaks affecting humans and howler monkeys (Alouatta spp) were reported, highlighting the importance of this disease in the context of conservation medicine and public health policies. Considering the lack of information about YF dynamics in New World NHP, our main goal was to apply modelling tools to better understand YF transmission dynamics among endangered brown howler monkey (Alouatta guariba clamitans) populations in northeastern Argentina. Two complementary modelling tools were used to evaluate brown howler population dynamics in the presence of the disease: Vortex, a stochastic demographic simulation model, and Outbreak, a stochastic disease epidemiology simulation. The baseline model of YF disease epidemiology predicted a very high probability of population decline over the next 100 years. We believe the modelling approach discussed here is a reasonable description of the disease and its effects on the howler monkey population and can be useful to support evidence-based decision-making to guide actions at a regional level.

The effect of plantation silviculture on soil organic matter and particle-size fractions in Amazonia

Eucalyptus grandis and other clonal plantations cover about 3.5 million ha in Brazil. The impacts of intensively-managed short-rotation forestry on soil aggregate structure and Carbon (C) dynamics are largely undocumented in tropical ecosystems. Long-term sustainability of these systems is probably in part linked to maintenance of soil organic matter and good soil structure and aggregation, especially in areas with low-fertility soils. This study investigated soil aggregate dynamics on a clay soil and a sandy soil, each with a Eucalyptus plantation and an adjacent primary forest. Silvicultural management did not reduce total C stocks, and did not change soil bulk density. Aggregates of the managed soils did not decrease in mass as hypothesized, which indicates that soil cultivation in 6 year cycles did not cause large decreases in soil aggregation in either soil texture. Silt, clay, and C of the sandy plantation soil shifted to greater aggregate protection, which may represent a decrease in C availability. The organic matter in the clay plantation soil increased in the fractions considered less protected while this shift from C to structural forms considered more protected was not observed.

Quantitative Assessment of Soil Physical Quality in Northern China Based on S-theory

ABSTRACT Quantitative assessment of soil physical quality is of great importance for eco-environmental pollution and soil quality studies. In this paper, based on the S-theory, data from 16 collection sites in the Haihe River Basin in northern China were used, and the effects of soil particle size distribution and bulk density on three important indices of theS-theory were investigated on a regional scale. The relationships between unsaturated hydraulic conductivityKi at the inflection point and S values (S/hi) were also studied using two different types of fitting equations. The results showed that the polynomial equation was better than the linear equation for describing the relationships between -log Ki and -logS, and -log Kiand -log (S/hi)2; and clay content was the most important factor affecting the soil physical quality index (S). The variation in the S index according to soil clay content was able to be fitted using a double-linear-line approach, with decrease in the S index being much faster for clay content less than 20 %. In contrast, the bulk density index was found to be less important than clay content. The average S index was 0.077, indicating that soil physical quality in the Haihe River Basin was good.

Fluid dynamic modelling and simulation of circulating fluidized bed reactors: importance of the interface turbulence transfer

The main objective of this work is to analyze the importance of the gas-solid interface transfer of the kinetic energy of the turbulent motion on the accuracy of prediction of the fluid dynamic of Circulating Fluidized Bed (CFB) reactors. CFB reactors are used in a variety of industrial applications related to combustion, incineration and catalytic cracking. In this work a two-dimensional fluid dynamic model for gas-particle flow has been used to compute the porosity, the pressure, and the velocity fields of both phases in 2-D axisymmetrical cylindrical co-ordinates. The fluid dynamic model is based on the two fluid model approach in which both phases are considered to be continuous and fully interpenetrating. CFB processes are essentially turbulent. The model of effective stress on each phase is that of a Newtonian fluid, where the effective gas viscosity was calculated from the standard k-epsilon turbulence model and the transport coefficients of the particulate phase were calculated from the kinetic theory of granular flow (KTGF). This work shows that the turbulence transfer between the phases is very important for a better representation of the fluid dynamics of CFB reactors, especially for systems with internal recirculation and high gradients of particle concentration. Two systems with different characteristics were analyzed. The results were compared with experimental data available in the literature. The results were obtained by using a computer code developed by the authors. The finite volume method with collocated grid, the hybrid interpolation scheme, the false time step strategy and SIMPLEC (Semi-Implicit Method for Pressure Linked Equations - Consistent) algorithm were used to obtain the numerical solution.

Application of the center manifold theory to the study of slewing flexible Non-ideal structures with nonlinear curvature: a case study

In this paper is Analyzed the local dynamical behavior of a slewing flexible structure considering nonlinear curvature. The dynamics of the original (nonlinear) governing equations of motion are reduced to the center manifold in the neighborhood of an equilibrium solution with the purpose of locally study the stability of the system. In this critical point, a Hopf bifurcation occurs. In this region, one can find values for the control parameter (structural damping coefficient) where the system is unstable and values where the system stability is assured (periodic motion). This local analysis of the system reduced to the center manifold assures the stable / unstable behavior of the original system around a known solution.

The succession dynamics of a macroalgal community after a flood disturbance in a tropical stream from São Paulo State, southeastern Brazil

The succession dynamics of a macroalgal community in a tropical stream (20º58' S and 49º25' W) was investigated after disturbance by a sequence of intensive rains. High precipitation levels caused almost complete loss of the macroalgal community attached to the substratum and provided a strong pressure against its immediate re-establishment. After this disturbance, a weekly sampling program from May 1999 to January 2000 was established to investigate macroalgal recolonization. The community changed greatly throughout the succession process. The number of species varied from one to seven per sampling. Global abundance of macroalgal community did not reveal a consistent temporal pattern of variation. In early succession stages, the morphological form of tufts dominated, followed by unbranched filaments. Latter succession stages showed the almost exclusive occurrence of gelatinous forms, including filaments and colonies. The succession trajectory was mediated by phosphorus availability in which community composition followed a scheme of changes in growth forms. However, we believe that deterministic and stochastic processes occur in lotic ecosystems, but they are dependent on the length of time considered in the succession analyses.

Clinical signs of pneumonia in children: association with and prediction of diagnosis by fuzzy sets theory

The present study compares the performance of stochastic and fuzzy models for the analysis of the relationship between clinical signs and diagnosis. Data obtained for 153 children concerning diagnosis (pneumonia, other non-pneumonia diseases, absence of disease) and seven clinical signs were divided into two samples, one for analysis and other for validation. The former was used to derive relations by multi-discriminant analysis (MDA) and by fuzzy max-min compositions (fuzzy), and the latter was used to assess the predictions drawn from each type of relation. MDA and fuzzy were closely similar in terms of prediction, with correct allocation of 75.7 to 78.3% of patients in the validation sample, and displaying only a single instance of disagreement: a patient with low level of toxemia was mistaken as not diseased by MDA and correctly taken as somehow ill by fuzzy. Concerning relations, each method provided different information, each revealing different aspects of the relations between clinical signs and diagnoses. Both methods agreed on pointing X-ray, dyspnea, and auscultation as better related with pneumonia, but only fuzzy was able to detect relations of heart rate, body temperature, toxemia and respiratory rate with pneumonia. Moreover, only fuzzy was able to detect a relationship between heart rate and absence of disease, which allowed the detection of six malnourished children whose diagnoses as healthy are, indeed, disputable. The conclusion is that even though fuzzy sets theory might not improve prediction, it certainly does enhance clinical knowledge since it detects relationships not visible to stochastic models.

Can future systemic financial risks be quantified?: ergodic vs nonergodic stochastic processes

Different axioms underlie efficient market theory and Keynes's liquidity preference theory. Efficient market theory assumes the ergodic axiom. Consequently, today's decision makers can calculate with actuarial precision the future value of all possible outcomes resulting from today's decisions. Since in an efficient market world decision makers "know" their intertemporal budget constraints, decision makers never default on a loan, i.e., systemic defaults, insolvencies, and bankruptcies are impossible. Keynes liquidity preference theory rejects the ergodic axiom. The future is ontologically uncertain. Accordingly systemic defaults and insolvencies can occur but can never be predicted in advance.

Incerteza e não ergodicidade: crítica aos neoclássicos

The starting point of this essay is to show that, in our view, the problem of the traditional economics is not in the deductive method nor the mathematical methods used, but to attribute to economic agents "power" on the future and prescribe the existence of ergodic stochastic processes in their economic analyzes. Thus, building a theory on the ground whose bases are not able to sustain a proper understanding of the world, mainstream economics has difficulties in using the modeling for establishing deductions and conclusions that help understanding the system. Thus, the logical-mathematical rigor in economic models and deduction can be used with appropriate axioms, which is not the case of mainstream economics. Our hypothesis is that the inability of the mainstream in predicting economic crisis is due to the non-recognition of some principles that best describe the dynamics of financialized contemporary capitalism, as the principles of non-ergodicity and Keynesian uncertainty.