14 resultados para Observation-driven Models
em Scielo Sa
Resumo:
The purpose of this study is to investigate the contribution of psychological variables and scales suggested by Economic Psychology in predicting individuals’ default. Therefore, a sample of 555 individuals completed a self-completion questionnaire, which was composed of psychological variables and scales. By adopting the methodology of the logistic regression, the following psychological and behavioral characteristics were found associated with the group of individuals in default: a) negative dimensions related to money (suffering, inequality and conflict); b) high scores on the self-efficacy scale, probably indicating a greater degree of optimism and over-confidence; c) buyers classified as compulsive; d) individuals who consider it necessary to give gifts to children and friends on special dates, even though many people consider this a luxury; e) problems of self-control identified by individuals who drink an average of more than four glasses of alcoholic beverage a day.
Resumo:
A recent and comprehensive review of the use of race and ethnicity in research that address health disparities in epidemiology and public health is provided. First it is described the theoretical basis upon which race and ethnicity differ drawing from previous work in anthropology, social science and public health. Second, it is presented a review of 280 articles published in high impacts factor journals in regards to public health and epidemiology from 2009-2011. An analytical grid enabled the examination of conceptual, theoretical and methodological questions related to the use of both concepts. The majority of articles reviewed were grounded in a theoretical framework and provided interpretations from various models. However, key problems identified include a) a failure from researchers to differentiate between the concepts of race and ethnicity; b) an inappropriate use of racial categories to ascribe ethnicity; c) a lack of transparency in the methods used to assess both concepts; and d) failure to address limits associated with the construction of racial or ethnic taxonomies and their use. In conclusion, future studies examining health disparities should clearly establish the distinction between race and ethnicity, develop theoretically driven research and address specific questions about the relationships between race, ethnicity and health. One argue that one way to think about ethnicity, race and health is to dichotomize research into two sets of questions about the relationship between human diversity and health.
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Chagas disease continues to be a significant public health problem, as ca. 10 million people are still infected with T. cruzi in Latin America. Decades after primary infection, 30% of individuals can develop a form of chronic inflammatory cardiomyopathy known as Chagas disease cardiomyopathy (CCC). Data from both murine models and human studies support the view that an autoimmune response as well as a parasite-driven immune response involving inflammatory cytokines and chemokines may both play a role in generating the heart lesions leading to CCC. This review aims to summarize recent advances in the understanding of the immunopathogenesis of Chagas disease cardiomyopathy.
Resumo:
Leishmaniasis remains a major public health problem worldwide and is classified as Category I by the TDR/WHO, mainly due to the absence of control. Many experimental models like rodents, dogs and monkeys have been developed, each with specific features, in order to characterize the immune response to Leishmania species, but none reproduces the pathology observed in human disease. Conflicting data may arise in part because different parasite strains or species are being examined, different tissue targets (mice footpad, ear, or base of tail) are being infected, and different numbers (“low” 1×102 and “high” 1×106) of metacyclic promastigotes have been inoculated. Recently, new approaches have been proposed to provide more meaningful data regarding the host response and pathogenesis that parallels human disease. The use of sand fly saliva and low numbers of parasites in experimental infections has led to mimic natural transmission and find new molecules and immune mechanisms which should be considered when designing vaccines and control strategies. Moreover, the use of wild rodents as experimental models has been proposed as a good alternative for studying the host-pathogen relationships and for testing candidate vaccines. To date, using natural reservoirs to study Leishmania infection has been challenging because immunologic reagents for use in wild rodents are lacking. This review discusses the principal immunological findings against Leishmania infection in different animal models highlighting the importance of using experimental conditions similar to natural transmission and reservoir species as experimental models to study the immunopathology of the disease.
Resumo:
In this experiment, the effect of betamethasone administered in the early post- acute infection of mice by Trypanosoma cruzi was studied. This drug was administered during 30 days after the 42nd day of infection in a dose of 0.15 mg/day. The betamethasone treatment did not cause fresh outbreaks of parasitemia and the histopathological findings in the chronic phase were not different from those in the control group. The higher cumulative mortality after treatment in the experimental group was due to superimposed bacterial infections. Outbred albino mice infected with low numbers ofY strain Trypanosoma cruzi trypomastigotes were not suitable models for Chagas' disease, since after 7 months of observation only mild histological lesions developed in all the animais. Prolonged betamethasone treatment of mice infected with low numbers o/Trypanosoma cruzi of the Y strain, during the post-acute phase did not aggravate the course of infection.
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INTRODUCTION: Malaria is a serious problem in the Brazilian Amazon region, and the detection of possible risk factors could be of great interest for public health authorities. The objective of this article was to investigate the association between environmental variables and the yearly registers of malaria in the Amazon region using Bayesian spatiotemporal methods. METHODS: We used Poisson spatiotemporal regression models to analyze the Brazilian Amazon forest malaria count for the period from 1999 to 2008. In this study, we included some covariates that could be important in the yearly prediction of malaria, such as deforestation rate. We obtained the inferences using a Bayesian approach and Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods to simulate samples for the joint posterior distribution of interest. The discrimination of different models was also discussed. RESULTS: The model proposed here suggests that deforestation rate, the number of inhabitants per km², and the human development index (HDI) are important in the prediction of malaria cases. CONCLUSIONS: It is possible to conclude that human development, population growth, deforestation, and their associated ecological alterations are conducive to increasing malaria risk. We conclude that the use of Poisson regression models that capture the spatial and temporal effects under the Bayesian paradigm is a good strategy for modeling malaria counts.
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INTRODUCTION: Injuries caused by sea urchins are the most common caused by marine animals in humans in Brazil, with the black sea urchin (Echinometra lucunter) causing the most injuries to bathers. METHODS: This study observed 314 human wounds with emphasis on the early observation of clinical signs and symptoms and their implications on the recommended treatment. RESULTS: All the injuries were caused by black sea urchins and were observed in bathers. The lesions and the pain were associated with penetration of the spines; there was no early inflammation or pain without pressure on the wounded places. Complications arising from this kind on injury, including infections and foreign body granulomas, are associated with the permanence of the spines in the wounds. CONCLUSIONS: The study confirmed that this kind of injury is the most common accident caused by aquatic animals in Brazil. The main therapeutical recommendation is early removal of the spines to prevent late complications, such as infections and the formation of foreign body granulomas.
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Hypertonic solutions have been studied extensively in the treatment of hypovolemic shock, both in experimental and clinical models. Safety, efficacy, and long-term effects on animals and patients have been evaluated. The present article reviews indications, safety, mortality rates, and outcome in patients with hemorrhagic hypovolemic shock who were treated after admission with a hypertonic/hyperoncotic solution under strict observation in the emergency room.
Resumo:
In this study, we concentrate on modelling gross primary productivity using two simple approaches to simulate canopy photosynthesis: "big leaf" and "sun/shade" models. Two approaches for calibration are used: scaling up of canopy photosynthetic parameters from the leaf to the canopy level and fitting canopy biochemistry to eddy covariance fluxes. Validation of the models is achieved by using eddy covariance data from the LBA site C14. Comparing the performance of both models we conclude that numerically (in terms of goodness of fit) and qualitatively, (in terms of residual response to different environmental variables) sun/shade does a better job. Compared to the sun/shade model, the big leaf model shows a lower goodness of fit and fails to respond to variations in the diffuse fraction, also having skewed responses to temperature and VPD. The separate treatment of sun and shade leaves in combination with the separation of the incoming light into direct beam and diffuse make sun/shade a strong modelling tool that catches more of the observed variability in canopy fluxes as measured by eddy covariance. In conclusion, the sun/shade approach is a relatively simple and effective tool for modelling photosynthetic carbon uptake that could be easily included in many terrestrial carbon models.
Resumo:
The Giant of Amazon basin, pirarucu, Arapaima gigas, is the largest scaled freshwater fish in the world. pirarucu cultivation has recently started, driven by the decline in natural populations and high market value. Currently, there are no reliable methods for sexual differentiation in this species other than direct examination of gonads, which requires dissection of specimens. A non-lethal and less invasive method for sexual identification is highly desirable in order to properly group broodstock for mating and offspring production. We utilized laparoscopic examination in anesthetized pirarucu to differentiate between male and female individuals. This method allowed for the observation and differentiation of the reproductive organs within an individual. Our results suggest that laparoscopy is an efficient method for sex differentiation in pirarucu causing minimal stress to the fish.
Resumo:
ABSTRACT: Despite the reduction in deforestation rate in recent years, the impact of global warming by itself can cause changes in vegetation cover. The objective of this work was to investigate the possible changes on the major Brazilian biome, the Amazon Rainforest, under different climate change scenarios. The dynamic vegetation models may simulate changes in vegetation distribution and the biogeochemical processes due to climate change. Initially, the Inland dynamic vegetation model was forced with initial and boundary conditions provided by CFSR and the Eta regional climate model driven by the historical simulation of HadGEM2-ES. These simulations were validated using the Santarém tower data. In the second part, we assess the impact of a future climate change on the Amazon biome by applying the Inland model forced with regional climate change projections. The projections show that some areas of rainforest in the Amazon region are replaced by deciduous forest type and grassland in RCP4.5 scenario and only by grassland in RCP8.5 scenario at the end of this century. The model indicates a reduction of approximately 9% in the area of tropical forest in RCP4.5 scenario and a further reduction in the RCP8.5 scenario of about 50% in the eastern region of Amazon. Although the increase of CO2 atmospheric concentration may favour the growth of trees, the projections of Eta-HadGEM2-ES show increase of temperature and reduction of rainfall in the Amazon region, which caused the forest degradation in these simulations.