Predictors of local malaria outbreaks: an approach to the development of an early warning system in Colombia

Risk factor surveillance is a complementary tool of morbidity and mortality surveillance that improves the likelihood that public health interventions are implemented in a timely fashion. The aim of this study was to identify population predictors of malaria outbreaks in endemic municipalities of Colombia with the goal of developing an early warning system for malaria outbreaks. We conducted a multiple-group, exploratory, ecological study at the municipal level. Each of the 290 municipalities with endemic malaria that we studied was classified according to the presence or absence of outbreaks. The measurement of variables was based on historic registries and logistic regression was performed to analyse the data. Altitude above sea level [odds ratio (OR) 3.65, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.34-9.98], variability in rainfall (OR 1.85, 95% CI 1.40-2.44) and the proportion of inhabitants over 45 years of age (OR 0.17, 95% CI 0.08-0.38) were factors associated with malaria outbreaks in Colombian municipalities. The results suggest that environmental and demographic factors could have a significant ability to predict malaria outbreaks on the municipal level in Colombia. To advance the development of an early warning system, it will be necessary to adjust and standardise the collection of required data and to evaluate the accuracy of the forecast models.

Yellow fever impact on brown howler monkeys (Alouatta guariba clamitans) in Argentina: a metamodelling approach based on population viability analysis and epidemiological dynamics

In South America, yellow fever (YF) is an established infectious disease that has been identified outside of its traditional endemic areas, affecting human and nonhuman primate (NHP) populations. In the epidemics that occurred in Argentina between 2007-2009, several outbreaks affecting humans and howler monkeys (Alouatta spp) were reported, highlighting the importance of this disease in the context of conservation medicine and public health policies. Considering the lack of information about YF dynamics in New World NHP, our main goal was to apply modelling tools to better understand YF transmission dynamics among endangered brown howler monkey (Alouatta guariba clamitans) populations in northeastern Argentina. Two complementary modelling tools were used to evaluate brown howler population dynamics in the presence of the disease: Vortex, a stochastic demographic simulation model, and Outbreak, a stochastic disease epidemiology simulation. The baseline model of YF disease epidemiology predicted a very high probability of population decline over the next 100 years. We believe the modelling approach discussed here is a reasonable description of the disease and its effects on the howler monkey population and can be useful to support evidence-based decision-making to guide actions at a regional level.

Comparative analysis of different meat traceability systems using multiple criteria and a social network approach

The adoption of a proper traceability system is being incorporated into meat production practices as a method of gaining consumer confidence. The various partners operating in the chain of meat production can be considered a social network, and they have the common goal of generating a communication process that can ensure each characteristic of the product, including safety. This study aimed to select the most appropriate meat traceability system “from farm to fork” that could be applied to Brazilian beef and pork production for international trade. The research was done in three steps. The first used the analytical hierarchy process (AHP) for selecting the best on-farm livestock traceability. In the second step, the actors in the meat production chain were identified to build a framework and defined each role in the network. In the third step, the selection of the traceability system was done. Results indicated that with an electronic traceability system, it is possible to acquire better connections between the links in the chain and to provide the means for managing uncertainties by creating structures that facilitate information flow more efficiently.

Rendering peacekeeping instrumental? The Brazilian approach to United Nations peacekeeping during the Lula da Silva years (2003-2010)

The article analyses how Brazilian state actions and policies regarding peace operations during the Presidency of Lula da Silva relate to the country's positions and attitudes towards United Nations peacekeeping. It argues that the inconsistencies identified on the Brazilian positions reflect the lack of a clear strategic horizon guiding the country's participation in UN peacekeeping, which consequentially hinders the country emergence as a great power.

Security issues during Lula's administration: from the reactive to the assertive approach

Brazil's security agenda during Lula's administration was not homogeneous through the two mandates: the first tenure (2002-2006) revealed a reactive approach towards security topics, while the second one (2006-2010) was more assertive. More specifically, the shift occurred in terms of both its geographical scope - once it incorporated global issues in a more systematic way -, and instruments through which the security agenda was exercised, given the multilateral initiative of Unasur's CDS

Climate governance in an international system under conservative hegemony: the role of major powers

In the last five years, climate change has been established as a central civilizational driver of our time. As a result of this development, the most diversified social processes - as well as the fields of science which study them - have had their dynamics altered. In International Relations, this double challenge could be explained as follows: 1) in empirical terms, climate change imposes a deepening of cooperation levels on the international community, considering the global common character of the atmosphere; and 2) to International Relations as a discipline, climate change demands from the scientific community a conceptual review of the categories designed to approach the development of global climate governance. The goal of this article is to discuss in both conceptual and empirical terms the structure of global climate change governance, through an exploratory research, aiming at identifying the key elements that allow understanding its dynamics. To do so, we rely on the concept of climate powers. This discussion is grounded in the following framework: we now live in an international system under conservative hegemony that is unable to properly respond to the problems of interdependence, among which - and mainly -, the climate issue.

The rights approach to local public management: experiences from Brazil

The Fundação Getulio Vargas, São Paulo, Public Management and Citizenship Program was set up in 1996 with Ford Foundation support to identify and disseminate Brazilian subnational government initiatives in service provision that have a direct effect on citizenship. Already, the program has 2,500 different experiences in its data bank, the results of four annual cycles. The article draws some initial conclusions about the possibilities of a rights-based approach to public management and about the engagement of other agencies and civil society organizations.

Budgeting and resource allocation in universities: a public choice approach

The calls for colleges and universities to improve their productivity are coming thick and fast in Brazil. Many studies are suggesting evaluation systems and external criteria to control the quality of teaching and research in universities. Since universities and colleges are not profit-oriented organizations (considering only the legitimate and serious research and teaching organizations, of course), the traditional microeconomics and administrative variables used to measure efficiency do not have any direct function. An alternative would be to create an "as if" market control system to evaluate performance in universities and colleges. Internal budget and resources allocation mechanism can be used as incentive instruments to improve quality and productivity. It will be the main issue of this article.

Teaching and learning production and operations management: the journey from identity crisis to a cross, disciplinary approach

Este artigo tem suas raízes em algumas questões relacionadas à "forma" e ao "conteúdo" do que nós, professores, ensinamos na área de Administração da Produção e Operações. Inicialmente, descrevo a evolução histórica desse campo no Brasil. Em seguida, discuto a crise de identidade que o campo está sofrendo. Com o objetivo de apresentar respostas para essa situação, apresento seis propostas para o desenvolvimento e consolidação do campo. Finalmente, descrevo uma iniciativa prática, envolvendo uma disciplina específica da área, ensinada para alunos de pós-graduação. Essa iniciativa enfatiza a "dimensão do conteúdo" (de uma abordagem técnico-operacional para uma abordagem estratégico-gerencial) como também a "dimensão da forma" (do foco no ensino para o foco no aprendizado). O sucesso dessa experiência em curso confirma a coerência da agenda proposta e induz futuros aperfeiçoamentos.

Intensidade tecnológica e sistemas de trabalho de alto desempenho: a contingent approach

Este artigo analisa o efeito moderador que a intensidade tecnológica do ambiente no qual a empresa atua exerce na relação entre os Sistemas de Trabalho de Alto Desempenho (STAD) e o desempenho operacional da empresa. Estudamos esse efeito moderador potencial em uma amostra de 593 empresas industriais espanholas divididas em duas sub-amostras: empresas industriais de alta (n1=301) e baixa (n2=292) tecnologia. Os resultados mostram que os STAD realmente influenciam o desempenho operacional das empresas de alta intensidade tecnológica, enquanto nas empresas de baixa intensidade tecnológica nenhum efeito é observado.