CITRICULTURE ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL EVALUATION UNDER CONDITIONS OF UNCERTAINTY

ABSTRACT The citriculture consists in several environmental risks, as weather changes and pests, and also consists in considerable financial risk, mainly due to the period ofreturn on the initial investment. This study was motivated by the need to assess the risks of a business activity such as citriculture. Our objective was to build a stochastic simulation model to achieve the economic and financial analysis of an orange producer in the Midwest region of the state of Sao Paulo, under conditions of uncertainty. The parameters used were the Net Present Value (NPV), the Modified Internal Rate of Return(MIRR), and the Discounted Payback. To evaluate the risk conditions we built a probabilistic model of pseudorandom numbers generated with Monte Carlo method. The results showed that the activity analyzed provides a risk of 42.8% to reach a NPV negative; however, the yield assessed by MIRR was 7.7%, higher than the yield from the reapplication of the positive cash flows. The financial investment pays itself after the fourteenth year of activity.

Fuzzy rule-based system for evaluation of uncertainty transaction in cassava chain

A fuzzy ruled-based system was developed in this study and resulted in an index indicating the level of uncertainty related to commercial transactions between cassava growers and their dealers. The fuzzy system was developed based on Transaction Cost Economics approach. The fuzzy system was developed from input variables regarding information sharing between grower and dealer on “Demand/purchase Forecasting”, “Production Forecasting” and “Production Innovation”. The output variable is the level of uncertainty regarding the transaction between seller and buyer agent, which may serve as a system for detecting inefficiencies. Evidences from 27 cassava growers registered in the Regional Development Offices of Tupa and Assis, São Paulo, Brazil, and 48 of their dealers supported the development of the system. The mathematical model indicated that 55% of the growers present a Very High level of uncertainty, 33% present Medium or High. The others present Low or Very Low level of uncertainty. From the model, simulations of external interferences can be implemented in order to improve the degree of uncertainty and, thus, lower transaction costs.

Evaluation of respiratory parameters in minimally processed lettuce grown under organic or conventional system

The increased preference for minimally processed vegetables has been attributed to the health benefits associated with fresh produce and the demand for ready-to-eat salads. In this paper, lettuce (Lactuca sativa L.) was evaluated for the effects of different cropping systems on the respiratory properties. Lettuce was packaged in low density polyethylene bags and stored in a refrigerator at 4 ºC. The concentration of carbon dioxide and oxygen inside the package was monitored during the storage at zero, three, six, eight, ten and twelve days by gas chromatography. Dry matter variation was measured gravimetrically up to day fourteen of storage. Values of respiratory rate for conventional lettuce increased from day 1 to 3 and remained low, while respiratory rate of the organic lettuce increased three-fold up to day 8, stabilizing at a high level. Variation in dry matter during storage also resulted from differences between the two cultivation systems. The highest content of dry matter was achieved by organic lettuce.

Evaluation of polymethylmethacrylate as ocular implant in rabbits subjected to evisceration

Spheres of different types of material are used for the replacement of lost volume after removal of the eye bulb or its content to prevent contraction of the orbital cavity. The aim of this study was to evaluate the scope of polymethylmethacrylate (PMMA) used as intraocular implant in eviscerated rabbit eye. Twelve New Zealand rabbits underwent unilateral evisceration of the left eye, with subsequent implantation of PMMA sphere 12 mm in diameter. Clinical evaluation was performed daily during the first 15 days after surgery and every 15 days until the end of the study period (180 days). For the histopathological analysis, three animals per trial underwent enucleation at 15, 45, 90 and 180 days after evisceration. There was no wound dehiscence, signs of infection or implant extrusion in any animal throughout the study period. Histological examination revealed the formation of fibrovascular tissue around the implants. The PMMA behaved as inert and non-integrable.

Evaluation of collaborative strategies for ecotourism and recreational activities in natural parks of Rio de Janeiro

In the city of Rio de Janeiro, the management agencies of environmental conservation units of the park type have been attempting to meet five primary objectives set by the National System for Conservation Units (NSCU), using participatory management guidelines for these units. Two of these objectives relate to the development of recreation activities that involve contact with nature and ecological tourism. This article presents the analyses and conclusions regarding the implementation of collaborative strategies with businesses to achieve such objectives; it is part of a series of research studies having a broader scope. Case studies were conducted in eight parks by means of dozens of interviews with managers and other interested social actors, as well as by documentary research and direct observation. The results suggest that the ecotourism objective is still far from being reached, and that the collaborative strategies used are not sufficient to compensate for the organizational, material and human limitations that encumber these agencies. It was also concluded for the sample that there lacks a strategic vision on the part of the three branches of government involved in the management of these parks in the sense of viewing ecotourism in the city's conservation units as a powerful means to foster local sustainable development.

Evaluation of organophosphorus and synthetic pyrethroid insecticides against six vector mosquitoe species

Three organophosphorus compounds- malathion, folithion and temephos- and two synthetic pyrethroids- alphamethrin and deltamethrin- were used for monitoring the susceptibility status of larvae and adults of six vector mosquitoe species: Culex quinquefasciatus (Filariasis) and Aedes albopictus (Dengue) (both laboratory and field strains); laboratory strains of Aedes aegypti (Dengue), Anopheles slephensi and Anopheles culicifacies (Malaria), and Culex tritaeniorhynchus (Japanese encephalitis) in India. From the LC50 values obtained for these insecticides, it was found that all mosquito species including the field strains of Cx. quinquefasciatus and Ae. albopictus were highly susceptible Except for Cx. quinquefasciatus (field strain) against malathion, 100% mortality was observed at the discriminating dosages recommended by World Health Organization. The residual effect of alphamethrin, deltamethrin, malathion and folithion at 25 mg (ai)/m² on different surfaces against six species of vector mosquitoes showed that alphamethrin was the most effective on all four treated surfaces (mud, plywood, cement and thatch). Nevertheless, residual efficacy lasted longer on thatch than on the other surfaces. Therefore, synthetic pyrethroids such as alphamethrin can be effectively employed in integrated vector control operations.

Evaluation of dog population in an urban area of Southeastern Brazil

Planning control programs, for diseases such as rabies requires information on the size and structure of the dog and cat population. In order to evaluate the dog population of the urban area of Araçatuba city, S. Paulo State, Brazil, a survey was conducted using a questionnaire to interview members of households. Eighty-eight districts were visited (37,778 houses) and the interview was possible at 77.93% of these. Human population size evaluated was 113,157 inhabitants. Houses that owned animals represented 55.2%, 26,926 of the animals concerned were dogs and 5,755 were cats. Of the dogs, 56.64% were 1-4 year olds and males represented 56.2% of the total population. Dog: person ratio was estimated at 2.8 dogs to every 10 persons, almost 3 times the ratio hitherto estimated and used in the planning of rabies vaccination campaigns.

Comparative evaluation of underlying causes of death processed by the Automated Classification of Medical Entities and the Underlying Cause of Death Selection Systems

INTRODUCTION: The correct identification of the underlying cause of death and its precise assignment to a code from the International Classification of Diseases are important issues to achieve accurate and universally comparable mortality statistics These factors, among other ones, led to the development of computer software programs in order to automatically identify the underlying cause of death. OBJECTIVE: This work was conceived to compare the underlying causes of death processed respectively by the Automated Classification of Medical Entities (ACME) and the "Sistema de Seleção de Causa Básica de Morte" (SCB) programs. MATERIAL AND METHOD: The comparative evaluation of the underlying causes of death processed respectively by ACME and SCB systems was performed using the input data file for the ACME system that included deaths which occurred in the State of S. Paulo from June to December 1993, totalling 129,104 records of the corresponding death certificates. The differences between underlying causes selected by ACME and SCB systems verified in the month of June, when considered as SCB errors, were used to correct and improve SCB processing logic and its decision tables. RESULTS: The processing of the underlying causes of death by the ACME and SCB systems resulted in 3,278 differences, that were analysed and ascribed to lack of answer to dialogue boxes during processing, to deaths due to human immunodeficiency virus [HIV] disease for which there was no specific provision in any of the systems, to coding and/or keying errors and to actual problems. The detailed analysis of these latter disclosed that the majority of the underlying causes of death processed by the SCB system were correct and that different interpretations were given to the mortality coding rules by each system, that some particular problems could not be explained with the available documentation and that a smaller proportion of problems were identified as SCB errors. CONCLUSION: These results, disclosing a very low and insignificant number of actual problems, guarantees the use of the version of the SCB system for the Ninth Revision of the International Classification of Diseases and assures the continuity of the work which is being undertaken for the Tenth Revision version.

Evaluation and additional recommendations for preparing a whole blood control material

OBJECTIVE: The assessment of an easy to prepare and low cost control material for Hematology, available for manual and automated methods. MATERIAL AND METHOD: Aliquots of stabilized whole blood were prepared by partial fixation with aldehydes; the stability at different temperatures (4. 20 and 37 °C) during periods of up to 8-9 weeks and aliquot variability with both methods were controlled. RESULTS: Aliquot variability with automated methods at day 1, expressed as CV% (coefficient of variation) was: white blood cells (WBC) 2.7, red blood cells (RBC) 0.7, hemoglobin (Hb) 0.6, hematocrit (Hct) 0.7, mean cell volume (MCV) 0.3, mean cell hemoglobin (MCH) 0.6, mean cell hemoglobin concentration (MCHC) 0.7, and platelets (PLT) 4.6. The CV (coefficient of variation) percentages obtained with manual methods in one of the batches were: WBC 23, Hct 2.8, Hb 4.5, MCHC 5.9, PLT 41. Samples stored at 4ºC and 20ºC showed good stability, only a very low initial hemolysis being observed, whereas those stored at 37ºC deteriobed a rapidly (metahemoglobin formation, aggregation of WBC and platelets, as well as alteration of erythrocyte indexes). CONCLUSIONS: It was confirmed that, as long as there is no exposure to high temperatures during distribution, this material is stable, allowing assessment, both esternal and internal, for control purposes, with acceptable reproductivity, both for manual and auttomatic methods.

Evaluation of a program to reduce back pain in nursing personnel

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the effectiveness of a program designed to reduce back pain in nursing aides. METHODS: Female nursing aides from a university hospital who had suffered episodes of back pain for at least six months were included in the study. Participants were randomly divided into a control group and an intervention group. The intervention program involved a set of exercises and an educational component stressing the ergonomic aspect, administered twice a week during working hours for four months. All subjects answered a structured questionnaire and the intensity of pain was assessed before and after the program using a visual analogue scale (VAS). Student's t-test or the Wilcoxon Rank Sum Test for independent samples, and Chi-square test or the Exact Fisher test for categorical analysis, were used. The McNemar test and the Wilcoxon matched pairs test were used to compare the periods before and after the program. RESULTS: There was a statistically significant decrease in the frequency of cervical pain in the last two months and in the last seven days in the intervention group. There was also a reduction in cervical pain intensity in the two periods (2 months, 7 days) and lumbar pain intensity in the last 7 days. CONCLUSIONS: The results suggest that a program of regular exercise with an emphasis on ergonomics can reduce musculoskeletal symptoms in nursing personnel.

Evaluation of alcohol outlet density and its relation with violence

OBJECTIVES: The current study set out to investigate alcohol availability in a densely populated, residential area of suburban São Paulo associated with high levels of social deprivation and violence. Gun-related deaths and a heavy concentration of alcohol outlets are notable features of the area surveyed. Given the strong evidence for a link between alcohol availability and a number of alcohol-related problems, including violent crime, measures designed to reduce accessibility have become a favored choice for alcohol prevention programs in recent years. METHODS: The interviewers were 24 residents of the area who were trained for the study. It was selected an area of nineteen streets, covering a total distance of 3.7 km. A profile of each alcohol outlet available on the area was recorded. RESULTS: One hundred and seven alcohol outlets were recorded. The number of other properties in the same area was counted at 1,202. Two measures of outlet density may thus be calculated: the number of outlets per kilometer of roadway (29 outlets/km); and the proportion of all properties that sold alcohol (1 in 12). CONCLUSIONS: The results of this study is compared with others which are mainly from developed countries and shown that the area studied have the highest density of alcohol outlet density ever recorded in the medical literature. The implication of this data related to the violence of the region is discussed. By generating a profile of alcohol sales and selling points, it was hoped to gain a better understanding of alcohol access issues within the sample area. Future alcohol prevention policy would be well served by such knowledge.

BASS 4: a software system for ergonomic design and evaluation of working hours

OBJECTIVE: To extend an existing computer programme for the evaluation and design of shift schedules (BASS 3) by integrating workload as well as economic aspects. METHODS: The redesigned prototype BASS 4 includes a new module with a suitable and easily applicable screening method (EBA) for the assessment of the intensity of physical, emotional and cognitive workload components and their temporal patterns. Specified criterion functions based on these ratings allow for an adjustment of shift and rest duration according to the intensity of physical and mental workload. Furthermore, with regard to interactive effects both workload and temporal conditions, e.g. time of day, are taken into account. In a second new module, important economic aspects and criteria have been implemented. Different ergonomic solutions for scheduling problems can now also be evaluated with regard to their economic costs. RESULTS: The new version of the computer programme (BASS 4) can now simultaneously take into account numerous ergonomic, legal, agreed and economic criteria for the design and evaluation of working hours. CONCLUSIONS: BASS 4 can now be used as an instrument for the design and the evaluation of working hours with regard to legal, ergonomic and economic aspects at the shop floor as well as in administrative (e.g. health and safety inspection) and research problems.

Evaluation of pharmaceutical assistance in public primary care in Brasília, Brazil

OBJECTIVE: Pharmaceutical assistance is essential in health care and a right of citizens according to Brazilian law and drug policies. The study purpose was to evaluate aspects of pharmaceutical assistance in public primary health care. METHODS: A cross-sectional study using WHO drug indicators was carried out in Brasília in 2001. From a random sample of 15 out of 62 centers thirty exiting patients per center were interviewed. RESULTS: Only 18.7% of the patients fully understood the prescription, 56.3% could read it, 61.2% of the prescribed drugs were actually dispensed, and mean duration of pharmaceutical dispensing was 53.2 seconds. Each visit lasted on average 9.4 minutes. Of prescribed and non-dispensed drugs, 85.3% and 60.6% were on the local essential drug list (EDL) respectively. On average 83.2% of 40 essential drugs were in stock, and only two centers had a pharmacist in charge of the pharmacy. The mean number of drugs per prescription was 2.3, 85.3% of prescribed drugs were on the EDL, 73.2% were prescribed using the generic denomination, 26.4% included antibiotics and 7.5% were injectables. The most prescribed groups were: cardiovascular drugs (26.8%), anti-infective drugs (13.1%), analgesics (8.9%), anti-asthmatic drugs (5.8%), anti-diabetic drugs (5.3%), psychoactive drugs (3.7%), and combination drugs (2.7%). CONCLUSIONS: Essential drugs were only moderately available almost 30 years after the first Brazilian EDL was formulated. While physician use of essential drugs and generic names was fairly high, efficiency was impaired by the poor quality of pharmaceutical care, resulting in very low patient understanding and insufficient guarantee of supply, particularly for chronic diseases.

Challenges and perspectives of academic evaluation

Academic evaluation has been an essential component of modern science since its inception, as science has moved away from personalized patronage toward its contemporary role as an essential enterprise of contemporary, democratic societies. In recent years, Brazil has experienced sustained growth in its scientific output, which is nowadays fully compatible with its status as a high middle-income country striving to become a fully developed, more equitable country in the years to come. Growth usually takes place amidst challenges and dilemmas and, in Brazil as elsewhere, academic evaluation is not exempt from such difficulties. In a large, profoundly heterogeneous country with a national evaluation system and nationwide on-line platforms disseminating information on the most disparate fields of knowledge, the main challenges refer to how to pay attention to detail without losing sight of comprehensiveness and how to handle social and regional diversity while preserving academic excellence as the fundamental benchmark.

Evaluation of maternal and neonatal hospital care: quality index of completeness

OBJECTIVE Develop an index to evaluate the maternal and neonatal hospital care of the Brazilian Unified Health System.METHODS This descriptive cross-sectional study of national scope was based on the structure-process-outcome framework proposed by Donabedian and on comprehensive health care. Data from the Hospital Information System and the National Registry of Health Establishments were used. The maternal and neonatal network of Brazilian Unified Health System consisted of 3,400 hospitals that performed at least 12 deliveries in 2009 or whose number of deliveries represented 10.0% or more of the total admissions in 2009. Relevance and reliability were defined as criteria for the selection of variables. Simple and composite indicators and the index of completeness were constructed and evaluated, and the distribution of maternal and neonatal hospital care was assessed in different regions of the country.RESULTS A total of 40 variables were selected, from which 27 single indicators, five composite indicators, and the index of completeness of care were built. Composite indicators were constructed by grouping simple indicators and included the following variables: hospital size, level of complexity, delivery care practice, recommended hospital practice, and epidemiological practice. The index of completeness of care grouped the five variables and classified them in ascending order, thereby yielding five levels of completeness of maternal and neonatal hospital care: very low, low, intermediate, high, and very high. The hospital network was predominantly of small size and low complexity, with inadequate child delivery care and poor development of recommended and epidemiological practices. The index showed that more than 80.0% hospitals had a low index of completeness of care and that most qualified heath care services were concentrated in the more developed regions of the country.CONCLUSIONS The index of completeness proved to be of great value for monitoring the maternal and neonatal hospital care of Brazilian Unified Health System and indicated that the quality of health care was unsatisfactory. However, its application does not replace specific evaluations.