Quality uncertainty and allocation of decision rights in the European protected designation of origin

The paper considers some issue in the governance of the European Protected Designation of Origin (PDO). The PDO systems are the outcomes of both farmers and consumers expectations and connect the valorisation of the agricultural and rural resources of given territories to the quality of typical products. A critical point in the governance of the PDO systems is represented by the connection between the quality strategies and the uncertainty. The paper argues that the PDO systems can be thought of as strictly coordinated subsystems in which the ex post governance play a critical role in coping with quality uncertainty. The study suggests that the society's inducements given raise to complex organizational systems in which the allocation of decision rights to PDO collective organizations play a major role. The empirical analysis is carried out by examining ten Italian PDO systems in order to identify the decision rights allocated.

Entrepreneurial decision-making using the knightian uncertainty approach

The article discusses the behavioral aspects that affect the entrepreneurs' decision making under the Knightian uncertainty approach. Since the profit arising from entrepreneurial activity represents the reward of an immeasurable and subjective risk, it has been hypothesized that innovative entrepreneurs have excessive optimism and confidence, which leads them to invest in high-risk activities. A behavioral model of decision making under uncertainty is used to test the hypothesis of overconfidence. This model is based on Bayesian inference, which allows us to model the assumption that these entrepreneurs are overconfident. We conclude that, under the hypothesis of overconfidence, these entrepreneurs decide to invest, despite the fact that the expected utility model indicates the contrary. This theoretical finding could explain why there are a large number of business failures in the first years of activity.

SPATIAL UNCERTAINTY OF NUTRIENT LOSS BY EROSION IN SUGARCANE HARVESTING SCENARIOS

The assessment of spatial uncertainty in the prediction of nutrient losses by erosion associated with landscape models is an important tool for soil conservation planning. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the spatial and local uncertainty in predicting depletion rates of soil nutrients (P, K, Ca, and Mg) by soil erosion from green and burnt sugarcane harvesting scenarios, using sequential Gaussian simulation (SGS). A regular grid with equidistant intervals of 50 m (626 points) was established in the 200-ha study area, in Tabapuã, São Paulo, Brazil. The rate of soil depletion (SD) was calculated from the relation between the nutrient concentration in the sediments and the chemical properties in the original soil for all grid points. The data were subjected to descriptive statistical and geostatistical analysis. The mean SD rate for all nutrients was higher in the slash-and-burn than the green cane harvest scenario (Student’s t-test, p<0.05). In both scenarios, nutrient loss followed the order: Ca>Mg>K>P. The SD rate was highest in areas with greater slope. Lower uncertainties were associated to the areas with higher SD and steeper slopes. Spatial uncertainties were highest for areas of transition between concave and convex landforms.

CITRICULTURE ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL EVALUATION UNDER CONDITIONS OF UNCERTAINTY

ABSTRACT The citriculture consists in several environmental risks, as weather changes and pests, and also consists in considerable financial risk, mainly due to the period ofreturn on the initial investment. This study was motivated by the need to assess the risks of a business activity such as citriculture. Our objective was to build a stochastic simulation model to achieve the economic and financial analysis of an orange producer in the Midwest region of the state of Sao Paulo, under conditions of uncertainty. The parameters used were the Net Present Value (NPV), the Modified Internal Rate of Return(MIRR), and the Discounted Payback. To evaluate the risk conditions we built a probabilistic model of pseudorandom numbers generated with Monte Carlo method. The results showed that the activity analyzed provides a risk of 42.8% to reach a NPV negative; however, the yield assessed by MIRR was 7.7%, higher than the yield from the reapplication of the positive cash flows. The financial investment pays itself after the fourteenth year of activity.

Internal standard versus external standard calibration: an uncertainty case study of a liquid chromatography analysis

Traditionally, in the cigarettes industry, the determination of ammonium ion in the mainstream smoke is performed by ion chromatography. This work studies this determination and compares the results of this technique with the use of external and internal standard calibration. A reference cigarette sample presented measurement uncertainty of 2.0 μg/cigarette and 1.5 μg/cigarette, with external and internal standard, respectively. It is observed that the greatest source of uncertainty is the bias correction factor and that it is even more significant when using external standard, confirming thus the importance of internal standardization for this correction.

Organic and total mercury determination in sediments by cold vapor atomic absorption spectrometry: methodology validation and uncertainty measurements

The purpose of the present study was to validate a method for organic Hg determination in sediment. The procedure for organic Hg was adapted from literature, where the organomercurial compounds were extracted with dichloromethane in acid medium and subsequent destruction of organic compounds by bromine chloride. Total Hg was performed according to 3051A USEPA methodology. Mercury quantification for both methodologies was then performed by CVAAS. Methodology validation was verified by analyzing certified reference materials for total Hg and methylmercury. The uncertainties for both methodologies were calculated. The quantification limit of 3.3 µg kg-1 was found for organic Hg by CVAAS.

Fuzzy rule-based system for evaluation of uncertainty transaction in cassava chain

A fuzzy ruled-based system was developed in this study and resulted in an index indicating the level of uncertainty related to commercial transactions between cassava growers and their dealers. The fuzzy system was developed based on Transaction Cost Economics approach. The fuzzy system was developed from input variables regarding information sharing between grower and dealer on “Demand/purchase Forecasting”, “Production Forecasting” and “Production Innovation”. The output variable is the level of uncertainty regarding the transaction between seller and buyer agent, which may serve as a system for detecting inefficiencies. Evidences from 27 cassava growers registered in the Regional Development Offices of Tupa and Assis, São Paulo, Brazil, and 48 of their dealers supported the development of the system. The mathematical model indicated that 55% of the growers present a Very High level of uncertainty, 33% present Medium or High. The others present Low or Very Low level of uncertainty. From the model, simulations of external interferences can be implemented in order to improve the degree of uncertainty and, thus, lower transaction costs.

Development of conditioned taste aversion to Mascagnia rigida in goats

The aim of this study was to determine whether goats could be averted from consuming Mascagnia rigida, a toxic plant found in the semiarid region of northeastern Brazil. Fourteen male goats not previously familiarized to M. rigida were randomly allocated to two treatment groups: control (treated with 5.5mL water orally by a drenching gun) and lithium group (treated with 100mg LiCl/kg body weight orally by a drenching gun). For conditioning, goats were allowed to feed on M. rigida leaves for 15 min, followed by LiCl or water administration. The time spent on eating M. rigida leaves was measured. The conditioning was repeated daily until the LiCl-treated goats stopped eating M. rigida. On the 10th, 17th, and 24th day after conditioning, extinction trials of the M. rigida aversion were performed in goats by using single-choice tests. There was no difference between the two treatment groups with respect to the consumption of M. rigida on the first day of aversion conditioning, however, controls ingested increasing amounts of the plant on consecutive conditioning days. On the second day, five out of the seven goats in the lithium group did not eat the leaves, but on the third day, all the goats in the lithium group did not ingest M. rigida. This aversion persisted throughout all evaluated days. This indicates that goats can be easily conditioned by using lithium chloride to avoid eating M. rigida temporarily.

Conditioned food aversion to Ipomoea carnea var. fistulosa induced by Baccharis coridifolia in goats

Baccharis coridifolia is a plant that induces strong conditioned food aversion in ruminants. This research aimed to induce a conditioned food aversion to Ipomoea carnea var. fistulosa in goats, using B. coridifolia as an aversive agent, and to compare the aversion induced by this plant with the aversion induced by lithium chloride (LiCl). Thirteen goats were allotted into two groups: Group 1 with six goats was averted with 175mg/kg of body weight of LiCl and Group 2 with seven goats was averted with 0,25g/kg of bw of dried B. coridifolia. All goats were averted on day 1 after the ingestion of I. carnea. The aversion procedure with LiCl or B. coridifolia in goats from Groups 1 and 2, respectively, was repeated in those goats that again consumed the plant during tests on days 2, 3, and 7. The goats of both groups were challenged in pens on 23 and 38 days after the last day of aversion and challenged in the pasture on days 11, 15, 18, 20, 22, 25, 27 and 29 after the last day of aversion. After this period goats were challenged every 15 days on pasture until the 330º day after the last day of aversion (7th day). Two goats from Group 1 ingested I. carnea on the first day of the pasture challenge, 4 days after the last day of aversive conditioning in the pen. In addition, another goat in Group 1 started to consume the plant on day 18, and other two goats ate it on day 20. One goat in Group 1 that had never eaten I. carnea died on day 155. One goat from Group 2 started to ingest I. carnea on the first day of the pasture challenge, and a second goat started to consume this plant on day 182. At the end of the experiment, on day 330, the other five goats averted with B. coridifolia remained averted. These results suggest that B. coridifolia or an active compound from the plant could be used to induce aversion to toxic plants. Using B. coridifolia would be cheaper and, particularly in flocks with large number of animals, possibly easier than using LiCl, which requires the use of oral gavage and qualified personnel for its implementation.

DISPOSITION EFFECT AMONG BRAZILIAN EQUITY FUND MANAGERS

The disposition effect predicts that investors tend to sell winning stocks too soon and ride losing stocks too long. Despite the wide range of research evidence about this issue, the reasons that lead investors to act this way are still subject to much controversy between rational and behavioral explanations. In this article, the main goal was to test two competing behavioral motivations to justify the disposition effect: prospect theory and mean reversion bias. To achieve it, an analysis of monthly transactions for a sample of 51 Brazilian equity funds from 2002 to 2008 was conducted and regression models with qualitative dependent variables were estimated in order to set the probability of a manager to realize a capital gain or loss as a function of the stock return. The results brought evidence that prospect theory seems to guide the decision-making process of the managers, but the hypothesis that the disposition effect is due to mean reversion bias could not be confirmed.

STRATEGIES FOR SUPERIOR PERFORMANCE IN RECESSIONS: PRO OR COUNTER-CYCLICAL?

Recessions are recurring events in which most firms suffer severe impacts while others are less affected or may even prosper. Strategic management has made little progress in understanding such performance differences. In a scenario of decreased demand, intensified competition, and higher uncertainty, most firms try to survive by pro-cyclically cutting costs and investments. But firms could take advantage of undervalued resources in the market to counter-cyclically invest in new business opportunities to overtake competitors. We survey Brazilian firms in various industries about the 2008-2009 recession and analyze data using PLS-SEM. We find that while most firms pro-cyclically reduce costs and investments in recessions, a counter-cyclical strategy of investing in opportunities created by changes in the market enables superior performance. Most successful are firms with a propensity to recognize opportunities, an entrepreneurial orientation to invest, and the flexibility to efficiently implement investments.