Access, equity and social cohesion: evaluation of intersectoral strategies for people experiencing homelessness

Objective To understand and evaluate the work of intersectoral assistance on the insertion and the flow of people in situation of street with severe mental illness in public services of Mental Health. Method A case study developed from ten visits to a night shelter between March and April 2012. For data collection, the participant observation and semi-structured interviews were carried out with four sheltered individuals, as well as non-directive group interviews with five technicians of the social-assistance services. Results Were analyzed using Content Analysis and developing a Logic Model validated with the professionals involved. Conclusion The social assistance services are the main entry of this clientele in the public network of assistance services, and the Mental Health services have difficulty in responding to the specificities of the same clientele and in establishing intersectoral work.


Temporal variability of soil CO2 emission after conventional and reduced tillage described by an exponential decay in time model

To study Assessing the impact of tillage practices on soil carbon losses dependents it is necessary to describe the temporal variability of soil CO2 emission after tillage. It has been argued that large amounts of CO2 emitted after tillage may serve as an indicator for longer-term changes in soil carbon stocks. Here we present a two-step function model based on soil temperature and soil moisture including an exponential decay in time component that is efficient in fitting intermediate-term emission after disk plow followed by a leveling harrow (conventional), and chisel plow coupled with a roller for clod breaking (reduced) tillage. Emission after reduced tillage was described using a non-linear estimator with determination coefficient (R²) as high as 0.98. Results indicate that when emission after tillage is addressed it is important to consider an exponential decay in time in order to predict the impact of tillage in short-term emissions.

Fuzzy linguistic model for evaluating the risk of neonatal death

OBJECTIVE: To introduce a fuzzy linguistic model for evaluating the risk of neonatal death. METHODS: The study is based on the fuzziness of the variables newborn birth weight and gestational age at delivery. The inference used was Mamdani's method. Neonatologists were interviewed to estimate the risk of neonatal death under certain conditions and to allow comparing their opinions and the model values. RESULTS: The results were compared with experts' opinions and the Fuzzy model was able to capture the expert knowledge with a strong correlation (r=0.96). CONCLUSIONS: The linguistic model was able to estimate the risk of neonatal death when compared to experts' performance.

Temporal evolution and spatial distribution of maternal death

OBJECTIVE To analyze the temporal evolution of maternal mortality and its spatial distribution.METHODS Ecological study with a sample made up of 845 maternal deaths in women between 10 and 49 years, registered from 1999 to 2008 in the state of Rio Grande do Sul, Southern Brazil. Data were obtained from Information System on Mortality of Ministry of Health. The maternal mortality ratio and the specific maternal mortality ratio were calculated from records, and analyzed by the Poisson regression model. In the spatial distribution, three maps of the state were built with the rates in the geographical macro-regions, in 1999, 2003, and 2008.RESULTS There was an increase of 2.0% in the period of ten years (95%CI 1.00;1.04; p = 0.01), with no significant change in the magnitude of the maternal mortality ratio. The Serra macro-region presented the highest maternal mortality ratio (1.15, 95%CI 1.08;1.21; p < 0.001). Most deaths in Rio Grande do Sul were of white women over 40 years, with a lower level of education. The time of delivery/abortion and postpartum are times of increased maternal risk, with a greater negative impact of direct causes such as hypertension and bleeding.CONCLUSIONS The lack of improvement in maternal mortality ratio indicates that public policies had no impact on women’s reproductive and maternal health. It is needed to qualify the attention to women’s health, especially in the prenatal period, seeking to identify and prevent risk factors, as a strategy of reducing maternal death.

Spatio-temporal patterns of tuberculosis incidence in Ribeirão Preto, State of São Paulo, southeast Brazil, and their relationship with social vulnerability: a Bayesian analysis

INTRODUCTION: The purpose of this ecological study was to evaluate the urban spatial and temporal distribution of tuberculosis (TB) in Ribeirão Preto, State of São Paulo, southeast Brazil, between 2006 and 2009 and to evaluate its relationship with factors of social vulnerability such as income and education level. METHODS: We evaluated data from TBWeb, an electronic notification system for TB cases. Measures of social vulnerability were obtained from the SEADE Foundation, and information about the number of inhabitants, education and income of the households were obtained from Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics. Statistical analyses were conducted by a Bayesian regression model assuming a Poisson distribution for the observed new cases of TB in each area. A conditional autoregressive structure was used for the spatial covariance structure. RESULTS: The Bayesian model confirmed the spatial heterogeneity of TB distribution in Ribeirão Preto, identifying areas with elevated risk and the effects of social vulnerability on the disease. We demonstrated that the rate of TB was correlated with the measures of income, education and social vulnerability. However, we observed areas with low vulnerability and high education and income, but with high estimated TB rates. CONCLUSIONS: The study identified areas with different risks for TB, given that the public health system deals with the characteristics of each region individually and prioritizes those that present a higher propensity to risk of TB. Complex relationships may exist between TB incidence and a wide range of environmental and intrinsic factors, which need to be studied in future research.

Spatio-temporal dynamics and transition from asymptotic equilibrium to bounded oscillations in Chrysomya albiceps (Diptera, Calliphoridae)

The sensitivity of parameters that govern the stability of population size in Chrysomya albiceps and describe its spatial dynamics was evaluated in this study. The dynamics was modeled using a density-dependent model of population growth. Our simulations show that variation in fecundity and mainly in survival has marked effect on the dynamics and indicates the possibility of transitions from one-point equilibrium to bounded oscillations. C. albiceps exhibits a two-point limit cycle, but the introduction of diffusive dispersal induces an evident qualitative shift from two-point limit cycle to a one fixed-point dynamics. Population dynamics of C. albiceps is here compared to dynamics of Cochliomyia macellaria, C. megacephala and C. putoria.

Characterisation of Culex quinquefasciatus (Diptera: Culicidae) larval habitats at ground level and temporal fluctuations of larval abundance in Córdoba, Argentina

The aims of this study were to characterise the ground-level larval habitats of the mosquito Culex quinquefasciatus, to determine the relationships between habitat characteristics and larval abundance and to examine seasonal larval-stage variations in Córdoba city. Every two weeks for two years, 15 larval habitats (natural and artificial water bodies, including shallow wells, drains, retention ponds, canals and ditches) were visited and sampled for larval mosquitoes. Data regarding the water depth, temperature and pH, permanence, the presence of aquatic vegetation and the density of collected mosquito larvae were recorded. Data on the average air temperatures and accumulated precipitation during the 15 days prior to each sampling date were also obtained. Cx. quinquefasciatus larvae were collected throughout the study period and were generally most abundant in the summer season. Generalised linear mixed models indicated the average air temperature and presence of dicotyledonous aquatic vegetation as variables that served as important predictors of larval densities. Additionally, permanent breeding sites supported high larval densities. In Córdoba city and possibly in other highly populated cities at the same latitude with the same environmental conditions, control programs should focus on permanent larval habitats with aquatic vegetation during the early spring, when the Cx. quinquefasciatus population begins to increase.

Fuzzy logic applied to the modeling of water dynamics in an Oxisol in northeastern Brazil

Modeling of water movement in non-saturated soil usually requires a large number of parameters and variables, such as initial soil water content, saturated water content and saturated hydraulic conductivity, which can be assessed relatively easily. Dimensional flow of water in the soil is usually modeled by a nonlinear partial differential equation, known as the Richards equation. Since this equation cannot be solved analytically in certain cases, one way to approach its solution is by numerical algorithms. The success of numerical models in describing the dynamics of water in the soil is closely related to the accuracy with which the water-physical parameters are determined. That has been a big challenge in the use of numerical models because these parameters are generally difficult to determine since they present great spatial variability in the soil. Therefore, it is necessary to develop and use methods that properly incorporate the uncertainties inherent to water displacement in soils. In this paper, a model based on fuzzy logic is used as an alternative to describe water flow in the vadose zone. This fuzzy model was developed to simulate the displacement of water in a non-vegetated crop soil during the period called the emergency phase. The principle of this model consists of a Mamdani fuzzy rule-based system in which the rules are based on the moisture content of adjacent soil layers. The performances of the results modeled by the fuzzy system were evaluated by the evolution of moisture profiles over time as compared to those obtained in the field. The results obtained through use of the fuzzy model provided satisfactory reproduction of soil moisture profiles.

Spatio-temporal variability of sugarcane yield efficiency in the state of São Paulo, Brazil

The objective of this work was to assess the spatial and temporal variability of sugarcane yield efficiency and yield gap in the state of São Paulo, Brazil, throughout 16 growing seasons, considering climate and soil as main effects, and socioeconomic factors as complementary. An empirical model was used to assess potential and attainable yields, using climate data series from 37 weather stations. Soil effects were analyzed using the concept of production environments associated with a soil aptitude map for sugarcane. Crop yield efficiency increased from 0.42 to 0.58 in the analyzed period (1990/1991 to 2005/2006 crop seasons), and yield gap consequently decreased from 58 to 42%. Climatic factors explained 43% of the variability of sugarcane yield efficiency, in the following order of importance: solar radiation, water deficit, maximum air temperature, precipitation, and minimum air temperature. Soil explained 15% of the variability, considering the average of all seasons. There was a change in the correlation pattern of climate and soil with yield efficiency after the 2001/2002 season, probably due to the crop expansion to the west of the state during the subsequent period. Socioeconomic, biotic and crop management factors together explain 42% of sugarcane yield efficiency in the state of São Paulo.

Temporal progress of southern rust in maize under different environmental conditions

The progress of the severity of southern rust in maize (Zea mays) caused by Puccinia polysora was quantified in staggered plantings in different geographical areas in Brazil, from October to May, over two years (1995-1996 and 1996-1997). The logistic model, fitted to the data, better described the disease progress curves than the Gompertz model. Four components of the disease progress curves (maximum disease severity; area under the disease progress curve, AUDPC; area under the disease progress curve around the inflection point, AUDPCi; and epidemic rate) were used to compare the epidemics in different areas and at different times of planting. The AUDPC, AUDPCi, and the epidemic rate were analyzed in relation to the weather (temperature, relative humidity, hours of relative humidity >90%, and rainfall) and recorded during the trials. Disease severity reached levels greater than 30% in Piracicaba and Guaíra in the plantings between December and January. Lower values of AUDPC occurred in later plantings at both locations. The epidemic rate was positively correlated (P < 0.05) with the mean daily temperatures and negatively correlated with hours of relative humidity >90%. The AUDPC was not correlated with any weather variable. The AUDPCi was negatively related to both variables connected to humidity, but not to rain. Long periods (mostly >13 h day-1) of relative humidity >90% (that corresponded to leaf wetness) occurred in Castro. Severity of southern rust in maize has always been low in Castro, thus the negative correlations between disease and the two humidity variables.

Spatio-temporal modelling of the duration of the cotton cycle in the State Of Goiás, Brazil

The objective of this work was to develop and validate a mathematical model to estimate the duration of cotton (Gossypium hirsutum L. r. latifolium hutch) cycle in the State of Goiás, Brazil, by applying the method of growing degree-days (GD), and considering, simultaneously, its time-space variation. The model was developed as a linear combination of elevation, latitude, longitude, and Fourier series of time variation. The model parameters were adjusted by using multiple-linear regression to the observed GD accumulated with air temperature in the range of 15°C to 40°C. The minimum and maximum temperature records used to calculate the GD were obtained from 21 meteorological stations, considering data varying from 8 to 20 years of observation. The coefficient of determination, resulting from the comparison between the estimated and calculated GD along the year was 0.84. Model validation was done by comparing estimated and measured crop cycle in the period from cotton germination to the stage when 90 percent of bolls were opened in commercial crop fields. Comparative results showed that the model performed very well, as indicated by the Pearson correlation coefficient of 0.90 and Willmott agreement index of 0.94, resulting in a performance index of 0.85.

Determination of total accumulated rainfall, global radiation, evapotranspiration and degree-days originated from the ECMWF model to sugar cane crop

The climate variability between the growth and harvesting of sugar cane is very important because it directly affects yield. The MODIS sensor has characteristics like spatial and temporal resolution that can be applied to monitoring of vegetative vigor variability in the land surface and then, temporal profiles generation. Agro meteorological data from ECMWF model are free and easy to access and have a good representation of reality. In this study, we used the period between sugar cane growth and harvest in the state of Sao Paulo, Brazil, from temporal profiles selecting of NDVI behavior. For each period the precipitation, evapotranspiration, global radiation, length (days) and degree-days were accumulated. The periods were presented in a map format on MODIS spatial resolution of 250 meters. The results showed the spatial variability of climate variables and the relationship to the reality presented by official data.

IDENTIFICATION OF SUITABLE AREAS FOR IRRIGATED RICE CROPPING USING MODIS IMAGES AND HAND MODEL

ABSTRACT One of the most relevant activities of Brazilian economy is agriculture. Among the main crops in Brazil, rice is one of high relevance. The state of Rio Grande do Sul, in Southern Brazil, is responsible for 68.7% of domestic production (IBGE, 2013). The goal of this study was to develop a low-cost methodology with a regional scope to identify suitable areas for irrigated rice cropping in this state, using spectro-temporal behavior of vegetation index by means of MODIS images and HAND model. The rice-cropped area of this study was the southern half of the State. Using the HAND model, flood areas were mapped to identify irrigated rice cultivation. We used multi-temporal images of vegetation index from MODIS sensor, covering the period from August 2001 to May 2012. To assess the results, we used data collected in the fields and cropped area information from IBGE. The results showed that the proposed methodology was satisfactory, with Kappa 0.92 and global accuracy of 98.18%. As result, MODIS sensor data and flood areas delineation by means of HAND model generated the estimate irrigated rice area for the area of study.

Simulation of Active Control Using Fuzzy Logic Applied to a Pulse Combustor

This work analyzes an active fuzzy logic control system in a Rijke type pulse combustor. During the system development, a study of the existing types of control for pulse combustion was carried out and a simulation model was implemented to be used with the package Matlab and Simulink. Blocks which were not available in the simulator library were developed. A fuzzy controller was developed and its membership functions and inference rules were established. The obtained simulation showed that fuzzy logic is viable in the control of combustion instabilities. The obtained results indicated that the control system responded to pulses in an efficient and desirable way. It was verified that the system needed approximately 0.2 s to increase the tube internal pressure from 30 to 90 mbar, with an assumed total delay of 2 ms. The effects of delay variation were studied. Convergence was always obtained and general performance was not affected by the delay. The controller sends a pressure signal in phase with the Rijke tube internal pressure signal, through the speakers, when an increase the oscillations pressure amplitude is desired. On the other hand, when a decrease of the tube internal pressure amplitude is desired, the controller sends a signal 180º out of phase.

Modeling temporal variations of Gracilaria Greville and Hypnea J.V. Lamouroux (Rhodophyta) assemblages on a midlittoral reef platform at Piedade Beach, Pernambuco State, Brazil

The diversity of algal banks composed of species out the genera Gracilaria Greville and Hypnea J.V. Lamouroux have been impacted by commercial exploitation and coastal eutrophication. The present study sought to construct dynamic models based on algal physiology to simulate seasonal variations in the biomasses of Gracilaria and Hypnea an intertidal reef at Piedade Beach in Jaboatão dos Guararapes, Pernambuco State, Brazil. Five 20 × 20 cm plots in a reef pool on a midlittoral reef platform were randomly sampled during April, June, August, October, and December/2009 and in January and March/2010. Water temperature, pH, irradiance, oxygen and salinity levels as well as the concentrations of ammonia, nitrate and phosphate were measured at the sampling site. Forcing functions were employed in the model to represent abiotic factors, and algal decay was simulated with a dispersal function. Algal growth was modeled using a logistic function and was found to be sensitive to temperature and salinity. Maximum absorption rates of ammonia and phosphate were higher in Hypnea than in Gracilaria, indicating that the former takes up nutrients more efficiently at higher concentrations. Gracilaria biomass peaked at approximately 120 g (dry weight m-2) in March/2010 and was significantly lower in August/2009; Hypnea biomasses, on the other hand, did not show any significant variations among the different months, indicating that resource competition may influence the productivity of these algae.