42 resultados para technology forecasting

em Scielo Saúde Pública - SP


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Existing studies on global sourcing strategy have implicitly adopted a cJosed-systems perspective in which sourcing activities are managed within a multinational company across national boundaries. Produd and process innovations and components procurement that are jointly managed by a consortium of cooperating firms have not been examined. In this paper, we empiricallyexamine the issues concerning sourcing partnerships in an open-systems perspective. Findings suggest that even in a sourcing partnership arrangement with a foreign supplier, the principal firm's ability to procure and control the supply of major components has a positive bearing on its market performance.

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The use of Mobile and Wireless Information Technologies (MWIT) for provisioning public services by a government is a relatively recent phenomenon. This paper evaluates the results of MWIT adoption by IBGE (The Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics) through a case study. In 2007, IBGE applied 82,000 mobile devices (PDAs) for data gathering in a census operation in Brazil. A set of challenges for a large scale application of MWIT required intensive work involving innovative working practices and service goals. The case reveals a set of outputs of this process, such as time and cost reductions in service provision, improved information quality, staff training and increased organizational effectiveness and agility.

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ABSTRACTThis paper analyzes the changes in the total factor productivity index of a Spanish hotel chain in the period from 2007 to 2010 with the purpose of identifying efficiency patterns for the chain in a period of financial crisis. The data envelopment analysis (DEA) Malmquist productivity index was used to estimate productivity change in 38 hotels of the AC chain. Results reveal AC hotels' efficiency trends and, therefore, their competitiveness in the recession period; they also show the changes experienced in these hotels' total productivity and its components: technological and efficiency changes. Positive efficiency changes were due to positive technical efficiency rather than technological efficiency. The recession period certainly influenced the performance of AC Hotels, which focused on organizational changes rather than investing in technology.

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INTRODUCTION: Forecasting dengue cases in a population by using time-series models can provide useful information that can be used to facilitate the planning of public health interventions. The objective of this article was to develop a forecasting model for dengue incidence in Campinas, southeast Brazil, considering the Box-Jenkins modeling approach. METHODS: The forecasting model for dengue incidence was performed with R software using the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model. We fitted a model based on the reported monthly incidence of dengue from 1998 to 2008, and we validated the model using the data collected between January and December of 2009. RESULTS: SARIMA (2,1,2) (1,1,1)12 was the model with the best fit for data. This model indicated that the number of dengue cases in a given month can be estimated by the number of dengue cases occurring one, two and twelve months prior. The predicted values for 2009 are relatively close to the observed values. CONCLUSIONS: The results of this article indicate that SARIMA models are useful tools for monitoring dengue incidence. We also observe that the SARIMA model is capable of representing with relative precision the number of cases in a next year.

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INTRODUCTION : The aim of this study was to report the experience of an epidemiological field survey for which data were collected and analyzed using tablets. METHODS : The devices used Epi Info 7 (Android version), which has been modeled a database with variables of the traditional form. RESULTS : Twenty-one households were randomly selected in the study area; 75 residents were registered and completed household interviews with socioeconomic and environmental risk variables. CONCLUSIONS : This new technology is a valuable tool for collecting and analyzing data from the field, with advantageous benefits to epidemiological surveys.