Yellow fever impact on brown howler monkeys (Alouatta guariba clamitans) in Argentina: a metamodelling approach based on population viability analysis and epidemiological dynamics

In South America, yellow fever (YF) is an established infectious disease that has been identified outside of its traditional endemic areas, affecting human and nonhuman primate (NHP) populations. In the epidemics that occurred in Argentina between 2007-2009, several outbreaks affecting humans and howler monkeys (Alouatta spp) were reported, highlighting the importance of this disease in the context of conservation medicine and public health policies. Considering the lack of information about YF dynamics in New World NHP, our main goal was to apply modelling tools to better understand YF transmission dynamics among endangered brown howler monkey (Alouatta guariba clamitans) populations in northeastern Argentina. Two complementary modelling tools were used to evaluate brown howler population dynamics in the presence of the disease: Vortex, a stochastic demographic simulation model, and Outbreak, a stochastic disease epidemiology simulation. The baseline model of YF disease epidemiology predicted a very high probability of population decline over the next 100 years. We believe the modelling approach discussed here is a reasonable description of the disease and its effects on the howler monkey population and can be useful to support evidence-based decision-making to guide actions at a regional level.

INCLUDING RISK IN ECONOMIC FEASIBILITY ANALYSIS:A STOCHASTIC SIMULATION MODEL FOR BLUEBERRY INVESTMENT DECISIONS IN CHILE

ABSTRACT The traditional method of net present value (NPV) to analyze the economic profitability of an investment (based on a deterministic approach) does not adequately represent the implicit risk associated with different but correlated input variables. Using a stochastic simulation approach for evaluating the profitability of blueberry (Vaccinium corymbosum L.) production in Chile, the objective of this study is to illustrate the complexity of including risk in economic feasibility analysis when the project is subject to several but correlated risks. The results of the simulation analysis suggest that the non-inclusion of the intratemporal correlation between input variables underestimate the risk associated with investment decisions. The methodological contribution of this study illustrates the complexity of the interrelationships between uncertain variables and their impact on the convenience of carrying out this type of business in Chile. The steps for the analysis of economic viability were: First, adjusted probability distributions for stochastic input variables (SIV) were simulated and validated. Second, the random values of SIV were used to calculate random values of variables such as production, revenues, costs, depreciation, taxes and net cash flows. Third, the complete stochastic model was simulated with 10,000 iterations using random values for SIV. This result gave information to estimate the probability distributions of the stochastic output variables (SOV) such as the net present value, internal rate of return, value at risk, average cost of production, contribution margin and return on capital. Fourth, the complete stochastic model simulation results were used to analyze alternative scenarios and provide the results to decision makers in the form of probabilities, probability distributions, and for the SOV probabilistic forecasts. The main conclusion shown that this project is a profitable alternative investment in fruit trees in Chile.

Application of simulated annealing in simulation and optimization of drying process of Zea mays malt

Kinetic simulation and drying process optimization of corn malt by Simulated Annealing (SA) for estimation of temperature and time parameters in order to preserve maximum amylase activity in the obtained product are presented here. Germinated corn seeds were dried at 54-76 °C in a convective dryer, with occasional measurement of moisture content and enzymatic activity. The experimental data obtained were submitted to modeling. Simulation and optimization of the drying process were made by using the SA method, a randomized improvement algorithm, analogous to the simulated annealing process. Results showed that seeds were best dried between 3h and 5h. Among the models used in this work, the kinetic model of water diffusion into corn seeds showed the best fitting. Drying temperature and time showed a square influence on the enzymatic activity. Optimization through SA showed the best condition at 54 ºC and between 5.6h and 6.4h of drying. Values of specific activity in the corn malt were found between 5.26±0.06 SKB/mg and 15.69±0,10% of remaining moisture.

Optimization of the sampling scheme for maps of physical and chemical properties estimated by kriging

The sampling scheme is essential in the investigation of the spatial variability of soil properties in Soil Science studies. The high costs of sampling schemes optimized with additional sampling points for each physical and chemical soil property, prevent their use in precision agriculture. The purpose of this study was to obtain an optimal sampling scheme for physical and chemical property sets and investigate its effect on the quality of soil sampling. Soil was sampled on a 42-ha area, with 206 geo-referenced points arranged in a regular grid spaced 50 m from each other, in a depth range of 0.00-0.20 m. In order to obtain an optimal sampling scheme for every physical and chemical property, a sample grid, a medium-scale variogram and the extended Spatial Simulated Annealing (SSA) method were used to minimize kriging variance. The optimization procedure was validated by constructing maps of relative improvement comparing the sample configuration before and after the process. A greater concentration of recommended points in specific areas (NW-SE direction) was observed, which also reflects a greater estimate variance at these locations. The addition of optimal samples, for specific regions, increased the accuracy up to 2 % for chemical and 1 % for physical properties. The use of a sample grid and medium-scale variogram, as previous information for the conception of additional sampling schemes, was very promising to determine the locations of these additional points for all physical and chemical soil properties, enhancing the accuracy of kriging estimates of the physical-chemical properties.

Heteropentámeros (etanol)4-agua: estudio estructural y termodinámico

Stochastic exploration of the potential energy surface of (ethanol)4-water heteropentamers through simulated annealing calculations was used to find probable structures of these clusters. Subsequent geometry optimization with the B3LYP/6-31+G(d) approach of these initial structures led to 13 stable heteropentamers. The strength of the hydrogen bonds of the type O"H-O (primary) and their spatial arrangements seem to be responsible for the geometric preferences and the high stability of these heteropentamers. This result is a consequence of the presence of the cooperative effects among such interactions. There is no significant influence of the secondary hydrogen bonds (C"H-O) on the stability of the heteropentamers.

PRACTICAL STOCHASTIC MODEL FOR CHEMICAL KINETICS

The Practical Stochastic Model is a simple and robust method to describe coupled chemical reactions. The connection between this stochastic method and a deterministic method was initially established to understand how the parameters and variables that describe the concentration in both methods were related. It was necessary to define two main concepts to make this connection: the filling of compartments or dilutions and the rate of reaction enhancement. The parameters, variables, and the time of the stochastic methods were scaled with the size of the compartment and were compared with a deterministic method. The deterministic approach was employed as an initial reference to achieve a consistent stochastic result. Finally, an independent robust stochastic method was obtained. This method could be compared with the Stochastic Simulation Algorithm developed by Gillespie, 1977. The Practical Stochastic Model produced absolute values that were essential to describe non-linear chemical reactions with a simple structure, and allowed for a correct description of the chemical kinetics.

Influence of data acquisition geometry on soybean spectral response simulated by the prosail model

View angle and directional effects significantly affect reflectance and vegetation indices, especially when daily images collected by large field-of-view (FOV) sensors like the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) are used. In this study, the PROSAIL radiative transfer model was chosen to evaluate the impact of the geometry of data acquisition on soybean reflectance and two vegetation indices (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index - NDVI and Enhanced Vegetation Index -EVI) by varying biochemical and biophysical parameters of the crop. Input values for PROSAIL simulation were based on the literature and were adjusted by the comparison between simulated and real satellite soybean spectra acquired by the MODIS/Terra and hyperspectral Hyperion/Earth Observing-One (EO-1). Results showed that the influence of the view angle and view direction on reflectance was stronger with decreasing leaf area index (LAI) and chlorophyll concentration. Because of the greater dependence on the near-infrared reflectance, the EVI was much more sensitive to viewing geometry than NDVI presenting larger values in the backscattering direction. The contrary was observed for NDVI in the forward scattering direction. In relation to the LAI, NDVI was much more isotropic for closed soybean canopies than for incomplete canopies and a contrary behavior was verified for EVI.

Parameter optimization of AC rectangular wave outputs for aluminum cold wire GTAW

The objective of this work was to optimize the parameter setup for GTAW of aluminum using an AC rectangular wave output and continuous feeding. A series of welds was carried-out in an industrial joint, with variation of the negative and positive current amplitude, the negative and positive duration time, the travel speed and the feeding speed. Another series was carried out to investigate the isolate effect of the negative duration time and travel speed. Bead geometry aspects were assessed, such as reinforcement, penetration, incomplete fusion and joint wall bridging. The results showed that currents at both polarities are remarkably more significant than the respective duration times. It was also shown that there is a straight relationship between welding speed and feeding speed and this relationship must be followed for obtaining sound beads. A very short positive duration time is enough for arc stability achievement and when the negative duration time is longer than 5 ms its effect on geometry appears. The possibility of optimizing the parameter selection, despite the high inter-correlation amongst them, was demonstrate through a computer program. An approach to reduce the number of variables in this process is also presented.

Object-oriented Programming Applied to the Development of Structural Analysis and Optimization Software

This paper presents the development of a two-dimensional interactive software environment for structural analysis and optimization based on object-oriented programming using the C++ language. The main feature of the software is the effective integration of several computational tools into graphical user interfaces implemented in the Windows-98 and Windows-NT operating systems. The interfaces simplify data specification in the simulation and optimization of two-dimensional linear elastic problems. NURBS have been used in the software modules to represent geometric and graphical data. Extensions to the analysis of three-dimensional problems have been implemented and are also discussed in this paper.