Macroinvertebrates under stochastic hydrological disturbance in Cerrado streams of Central Brazil

In the Cerrado vegetation, where the seasonal is well defined, rainfall has an important role in controlling the flow of streams and consequently on the structure of macroinvertebrates community. Despite the effects of rainfall associated with seasonality are well studied, little is known about the effects of stochastic rains on the community. In the present study we evaluated the structure and faunal composition of four first-order streams in Central Brazil during the dry season in two years, with and without stochastic rains. Community sampling was done by colonization of boards of high density polyethylene (HDPE), removed after one month submerged in streams. Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) performed indicated no difference in rarefied richness between the two periods, different from numeric density of organisms that was higher in the period without disturbance; moreover, the Detrended Correspondence Analysis (DCA) revealed differences in faunal composition between the two periods. Our results indicate that stochastic rainfall is an important factor in structuring the macroinvertebrates community in studied region.

Prehistoric tuberculosis in America: adding comments to a literature review

Tuberculosis is a prehistoric American human disease. This paper reviews the literature and discusses hypotheses for origins and epidemiological patterns of prehistoric tuberculosis. From the last decades, 24 papers about prehistoric tuberculosis were published and 133 cases were reviewed. In South America most are isolated case studies, contrary to North America where more skeletal series were analyzed. Disease was usually located at the deserts of Chile and Peru, Central Plains in USA, and Lake Ontario in Canada. Skeletal remains represent most of the cases, but 16 mummies have also been described. Thirty individuals had lung disease, 19 of them diagnosed by the ribs. More then 100 individuals had osseous tuberculosis and 26 also had it in other organs. As today, transmission of the infection and establishment of the disease were favored by cultural and life-style changes such as sedentarization, crowding, undernutrition, use of dark and insulated houses, and by the frequency of interpersonal contacts. The papers confirm that despite previous perceptions, tuberculosis seems to have occured in America for millennia. It only had epidemiological expression when special conditions favored its expansion. Occurring as epidemic bursts or low endemic disease, it had differential impact on groups or social segments in America for at least two millennia.

INCLUDING RISK IN ECONOMIC FEASIBILITY ANALYSIS:A STOCHASTIC SIMULATION MODEL FOR BLUEBERRY INVESTMENT DECISIONS IN CHILE

ABSTRACT The traditional method of net present value (NPV) to analyze the economic profitability of an investment (based on a deterministic approach) does not adequately represent the implicit risk associated with different but correlated input variables. Using a stochastic simulation approach for evaluating the profitability of blueberry (Vaccinium corymbosum L.) production in Chile, the objective of this study is to illustrate the complexity of including risk in economic feasibility analysis when the project is subject to several but correlated risks. The results of the simulation analysis suggest that the non-inclusion of the intratemporal correlation between input variables underestimate the risk associated with investment decisions. The methodological contribution of this study illustrates the complexity of the interrelationships between uncertain variables and their impact on the convenience of carrying out this type of business in Chile. The steps for the analysis of economic viability were: First, adjusted probability distributions for stochastic input variables (SIV) were simulated and validated. Second, the random values of SIV were used to calculate random values of variables such as production, revenues, costs, depreciation, taxes and net cash flows. Third, the complete stochastic model was simulated with 10,000 iterations using random values for SIV. This result gave information to estimate the probability distributions of the stochastic output variables (SOV) such as the net present value, internal rate of return, value at risk, average cost of production, contribution margin and return on capital. Fourth, the complete stochastic model simulation results were used to analyze alternative scenarios and provide the results to decision makers in the form of probabilities, probability distributions, and for the SOV probabilistic forecasts. The main conclusion shown that this project is a profitable alternative investment in fruit trees in Chile.

PRACTICAL STOCHASTIC MODEL FOR CHEMICAL KINETICS

The Practical Stochastic Model is a simple and robust method to describe coupled chemical reactions. The connection between this stochastic method and a deterministic method was initially established to understand how the parameters and variables that describe the concentration in both methods were related. It was necessary to define two main concepts to make this connection: the filling of compartments or dilutions and the rate of reaction enhancement. The parameters, variables, and the time of the stochastic methods were scaled with the size of the compartment and were compared with a deterministic method. The deterministic approach was employed as an initial reference to achieve a consistent stochastic result. Finally, an independent robust stochastic method was obtained. This method could be compared with the Stochastic Simulation Algorithm developed by Gillespie, 1977. The Practical Stochastic Model produced absolute values that were essential to describe non-linear chemical reactions with a simple structure, and allowed for a correct description of the chemical kinetics.

Spatial variability of noise level in agricultural machines

The knowledge of the spatial variability of noise levels and the build of kriging maps can help the evaluation of the salubrity of environments occupied by agricultural workers. Therefore, the objective of this research was to characterize the spatial variability of the noise level generated by four agricultural machines, using geostatistics, and to verify if the values are within the limits of human comfort. The evaluated machines were: harvester, chainsaw, brushcutter and tractor. The data were collected at the height of the operator's ear and at different distances. Through the results, it was possible to verify that the use of geostatistics, by kriging technique, made it possible to define areas with different levels for the data collected. With exception of the harvester, all of machines presented noise levels above than 85 dB (A) near to the operator, demanding the use of hearing protection.

Marketing in the pre-development process of agricultural machines: a reference model

The theme of the research is the development of the domain of marketing knowledge in the design of agricultural machinery. It is developed throughout the design of agricultural machinery in order to identify the corporate and customers needs and to develop strategies to satisfy these needs. The central problem of the research questions which marketing tools to apply on pre-development process of farm machinery, in order to increase the market value of the products and of the company and, consequently, generate competitive advantage to the manufacturers of agricultural machinery. As methodology, it was developed bibliographical research and multicase study of the development process of agricultural machinery developed by small, medium and large companies and the academy. As a result, a marketing reference model was elaborated for the pre-development stage of agricultural machinery, which outlines the activities, tasks, mechanisms and controls that can be used in strategic planning and in products planning of agricultural machinery manufacturers, contributing to explain the explicit knowledge in the marketing field.

Internal ambience of bee colonies submitted to strengthening management by adding broods

This study aimed to investigate the ideal brood area to be introduced for strengthening Apis mellifera colonies, considering variations in the hive's internal ambience. Therefore, eight colonies were equipped with data loggers for recording variations in temperature and humidity inside the hives. Then, these colonies were split in four treatments involving the swapping of four, three, two and one brood comb between strong and weak colonies. Growth in the amount of brood and food stores to the four colony strengthening treatments was assessed counting the comb cells to record changes in the brood and food area. The colonies tended to restore their normal thermoregulation within four hours after they had been manipulated and the hive cover had been closed, which quickly increased brood area in the receiving colonies. Results showed that adding up to three brood combs constitute an important alternative for strengthening Apis mellifera colonies because it did not interfere with nest thermoregulation, speeded up population growth in weak colonies and did not affect the development of strong colonies.

Multiple scales analysis of nonlinear oscillations of a portal frame foundation for several machines

An analytical study of the nonlinear vibrations of a multiple machines portal frame foundation is presented. Two unbalanced rotating machines are considered, none of them resonant with the lower natural frequencies of the supporting structure. Their combined frequencies is set in such a way as to excite, due to nonlinear behavior of the frame, either the first anti-symmetrical mode (sway) or the first symmetrical mode. The physical and geometrical characteristics of the frame are chosen to tune the natural frequencies of these two modes into a 1:2 internal resonance. The problem is reduced to a two degrees of freedom model and its nonlinear equations of motions are derived via a Lagrangian approach. Asymptotic perturbation solutions of these equations are obtained via the Multiple Scales Method.

Improving diquat efficacy on grasses by adding adjuvants to the spray solution before use

The effect of five adjuvants (non-ionic surfactant, paraffinic oil, vegetable oil, mixture of fatty acids methyl esters plus surfactant blend, and organosilicone) on diquat efficacy was assessed on poverty brome, sterile oat, and Italian ryegrass in field and pot experiments. All tank mixtures with diquat increased diquat efficacy from 50-54% to 77-98% as for fresh weight reduction, indicating significant enhancement of diquat efficacy on grasses. The increased efficacy was most likely attributed to better droplet retention and diffusion on the leaf surfaces. When combined with non-ionic surfactant, diquat showed slightly more rapid control of grass weeds (i.e. symptoms were visible within a few hours after application).

Early detection of metabolic and energy disorders by thermal time series stochastic complexity analysis

Maintenance of thermal homeostasis in rats fed a high-fat diet (HFD) is associated with changes in their thermal balance. The thermodynamic relationship between heat dissipation and energy storage is altered by the ingestion of high-energy diet content. Observation of thermal registers of core temperature behavior, in humans and rodents, permits identification of some characteristics of time series, such as autoreference and stationarity that fit adequately to a stochastic analysis. To identify this change, we used, for the first time, a stochastic autoregressive model, the concepts of which match those associated with physiological systems involved and applied in male HFD rats compared with their appropriate standard food intake age-matched male controls (n=7 per group). By analyzing a recorded temperature time series, we were able to identify when thermal homeostasis would be affected by a new diet. The autoregressive time series model (AR model) was used to predict the occurrence of thermal homeostasis, and this model proved to be very effective in distinguishing such a physiological disorder. Thus, we infer from the results of our study that maximum entropy distribution as a means for stochastic characterization of temperature time series registers may be established as an important and early tool to aid in the diagnosis and prevention of metabolic diseases due to their ability to detect small variations in thermal profile.

Effect of adding unconventional raw materials on the technological properties of rice fresh pasta

The aim of this study was to develop fettuccini type rice fresh pasta by cold extrusion. To produce the pasta, a 2² Central Composite Rotational Design was used, in which the effects of the addition of pre-gelatinized rice flour - PGRF (0-60%) and modified egg albumin - MEA (0-10%) were studied. The dependent variables were the results of the cooking test and of the instrumental texture. The optimum cooking time for all of the formulations of rice fresh pasta was 3 minutes. MEA had a greater effect on increasing the weight of the pasta when compared to that of PGRF. It was found that with the addition of PGRF increase in loss of solids in cooking water, whereas MEA exerted the opposite effect on this parameter. Moreover, the maximum value of MEA (10%) had an optimum effect on pasta firmness, while PGRF had a negative effect on this parameter. The maximum values of PGRF and MEA reduced the stickiness of the pasta. Based on these results and on the parameters considered as most important, the rice pasta with the best technological characteristics was that with the maximum levels of MEA (10%) and no addition of PGRF (0%). This product was submitted to sensory and microbiological analyses, with good results.

Effect of adding flours from marolo fruit (Annona crassiflora Mart) and jerivá fruit (Syagrus romanzoffiana Cham Glassm) on the physicals and sensory characteristics of food bars

Abstract The marolo (Annona crassiflora Mart.) and jerivá (Syagrus romanzoffiana Cham Glassm) fruits grow in the Cerrado biome, and have important sensory and nutritional characteristics. These fruits are eaten fresh or processed and embedded in ice cream, candy, juices, and liquors. However, their use is very limited and is localized exclusively to their native region. The aim of this study was to evaluate the use of these fruits in food consumer products to improve the nutritional patterns of consumers and extend knowledge thereof. To do this, different levels (0%, 5%, 10%, 15%, and 20%) of flour derived from the marolo and jerivá fruits were incorporated into food bars, which were then characterized in terms of their physical of the texture (TPA), porosity, color and sensorial properties. The food bars enriched with marolo and jerivá flours had an intense yellow color and increased hardness relative to the control bars; the porosity of the bars progressively decreased as the amount of flour added increased. The sensorial analysis in the snack bars developed added with the fruits flour no was influence by incorporation this component, showed good averages for the scores evaluated.

Can future systemic financial risks be quantified?: ergodic vs nonergodic stochastic processes

Different axioms underlie efficient market theory and Keynes's liquidity preference theory. Efficient market theory assumes the ergodic axiom. Consequently, today's decision makers can calculate with actuarial precision the future value of all possible outcomes resulting from today's decisions. Since in an efficient market world decision makers "know" their intertemporal budget constraints, decision makers never default on a loan, i.e., systemic defaults, insolvencies, and bankruptcies are impossible. Keynes liquidity preference theory rejects the ergodic axiom. The future is ontologically uncertain. Accordingly systemic defaults and insolvencies can occur but can never be predicted in advance.