SPATIOTEMPORAL TRENDS OF CASES OF PANDEMIC INFLUENZA A(H1N1)PDM09 IN ARGENTINA, 2009-2012

The aim of this paper was to analyze the spatiotemporal variations of cases of influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 in Argentina. A space-time permutation scan statistic was performed to test the non-randomness in the interaction between space and time in reported influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 cases. In 2009, two clusters were recorded in the east of Buenos Aires Province (May and June) and in the central and northern part of Argentina (July and August). Between 2011 and 2012, clusters near areas bordering other countries were registered. Within the clusters, in 2009, the high notification rates were first observed in the school-age population and then extended to the older population (15-59 years). From 2011 onwards, higher rates of reported cases of influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 occurred in children under five years in center of the country. Two stages of transmission of influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 can be characterized. The first stage had high rates of notification and a possible interaction with individuals from other countries in the major cities of Argentina (pattern of hierarchy), and the second stage had an increased interaction in some border areas without a clear pattern of hierarchy. These results suggest the need for greater coordination in the Southern Cone countries, in order to implement joint prevention and vaccination policies.

Use of Poisson spatiotemporal regression models for the Brazilian Amazon Forest: malaria count data

INTRODUCTION: Malaria is a serious problem in the Brazilian Amazon region, and the detection of possible risk factors could be of great interest for public health authorities. The objective of this article was to investigate the association between environmental variables and the yearly registers of malaria in the Amazon region using Bayesian spatiotemporal methods. METHODS: We used Poisson spatiotemporal regression models to analyze the Brazilian Amazon forest malaria count for the period from 1999 to 2008. In this study, we included some covariates that could be important in the yearly prediction of malaria, such as deforestation rate. We obtained the inferences using a Bayesian approach and Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods to simulate samples for the joint posterior distribution of interest. The discrimination of different models was also discussed. RESULTS: The model proposed here suggests that deforestation rate, the number of inhabitants per km², and the human development index (HDI) are important in the prediction of malaria cases. CONCLUSIONS: It is possible to conclude that human development, population growth, deforestation, and their associated ecological alterations are conducive to increasing malaria risk. We conclude that the use of Poisson regression models that capture the spatial and temporal effects under the Bayesian paradigm is a good strategy for modeling malaria counts.

An analysis of the spatiotemporal distribution of American cutaneous leishmaniasis in counties located along road and railway corridors in the State of Maranhao, Brazil

Introduction The incidence of American cutaneous leishmaniasis (ACL) is increasing in Latin America, especially in Brazil, where 256,587 cases were confirmed in the last decade. Methods This study used a Bayesian model to examine the spatial and temporal distribution of ACL cases between 2000 and 2009 in 61 counties of State of Maranhão located along the three main road and railway corridors. Results During the study period, 13,818 cases of ACL were recorded. There was a significant decrease in the incidence of ACL in the ten study years. The recorded incidence rate ranged from 7.36 to 241.45 per 100,000 inhabitants. The relative risk increased in 77% of the counties, decreased in 18% and was maintained in only five counties. Conclusions Although there was a decreased incidence of the disease, ACL was present in all of the examined municipalities, thus maintaining the risk of contracting this illness.

Temporal, spatial and spatiotemporal analysis of the occurrence of visceral leishmaniasis in humans in the City of Birigui, State of São Paulo, from 1999 to 2012

Introduction In 1999, Birigui and Araçatuba were the first municipalities in the State of São Paulo to present autochthonous cases of visceral leishmaniasis in humans (VLH). The aim of this study was to describe the temporal, spatial and spatiotemporal behaviors of VLH in Birigui. Methods Secondary data were obtained from the Notifiable Diseases Information System from 1999 to 2012. The incidence, mortality and case fatality rates by sex and age were calculated. The cases of VLH were geocoded and grouped according to census tracts. Local empirical Bayesian incidence rates were calculated. The existence of spatial and spatiotemporal clusters was investigated using SaTScan software. Results There were 156 confirmed cases of autochthonous VLH. The incidence rate was higher in the 0-4-year-old children, and the mortality and case fatality rates were higher in people aged 60 years and older. The peaks of incidence occurred in 2006 and 2011. The Bayesian rates identified the presence of VLH in all of the census tracts in the municipality; however, spatial and spatiotemporal clusters were found in the central area of the municipality. Conclusions Birigui, located in the Araçatuba region, has recently experienced increasing numbers of VLH cases; this increase is contrary to the behavior observed over the entire region, which has shown a decreasing trend in the number of VLH cases. The observations that the highest incidence is in children 0-4 years old and the highest mortality is in people 60 years and older are in agreement with the expected patterns of VLH.

Spatiotemporal analysis of reported cases of acute Chagas disease in the State of Pernambuco, Brazil, from 2002 to 2013

INTRODUCTION: Control strategies to eliminate the transmission of Chagas disease by insect vectors have significantly decreased the number of reported acute cases in Brazil. However, data regarding the incidence and distribution of acute Chagas disease cases in the State of Pernambuco are unavailable in the literature. METHODS: A geographical information system was used to delineate the spatiotemporal distribution profile of the cases from 2002 to 2013 in 185 municipalities of Pernambuco based on the municipality where notification occurred. The results were presented in digital maps generated by the TerraView software (INPE). RESULTS: A total of 302 cases of acute disease were recorded in 37.8% of the municipalities, for a total of 0.13 cases per 1,000,000 inhabitants per year. Out of the 302 cases, 99.3% were reported between 2002 and 2006. The most affected municipalities were Carnaubeira da Penha, Mirandiba and Terra Nova. The risk maps showed a significant decrease in the number of notifications and a concentration of cases in the Midwest region. CONCLUSIONS: This study highlights a significant decrease in new cases of acute Chagas disease in Pernambuco starting in 2006 when Brazil received an international certification for the interruption of vectorial transmission by Triatoma infestans. However, control strategies should still be encouraged because other triatomine species can also transmit the parasite; moreover, other transmission modes must not be neglected.

Spatial and spatiotemporal occurrence of human visceral leishmaniasis in Adamantina, State of São Paulo, Brazil

Abstract: INTRODUCTION : Several municipalities of the Western region of the State of São Paulo have been affected by human visceral leishmaniasis (HVL), including the City of Adamantina, where the first autochthonous cases occurred in 2004. Therefore, this study aimed to describe the spatial and spatiotemporal occurrence of HVL in Adamantina. METHODS : Secondary data regarding the occurrence of HVL in Adamantina between 2004 and 2011 were used. Incidence, mortality, and case fatality rates were calculated. We used local empirical Bayesian incidence rates to represent the occurrence of the disease in the census sector of the city. The existence of spatial and spatiotemporal clusters of cases was evaluated using scan statistics. In situ observation was performed to assess the socioeconomic and environmental characteristics of the areas with medium and high incidences. RESULTS : Adamantina reported cases in 70% of its census sectors. No differences were observed between sexes. The group aged 0-4 years presented the highest incidence and mortality rates, and the group aged 40-59 years presented the highest fatality rate. We detected a spatiotemporal cluster, which coincided with the commencement of the endemic in the city. CONCLUSIONS : The individuals most affected by the disease were children. The disease was present in areas with better and worse socioeconomic conditions. The use of spatial analysis techniques was important to achieve the study objectives.

The spatiotemporal trajectory of a dengue epidemic in a medium-sized city

Understanding the transmission dynamics of infectious diseases is important to allow for improvements of control measures. To investigate the spatiotemporal pattern of an epidemic dengue occurred at a medium-sized city in the Northeast Region of Brazil in 2009, we conducted an ecological study of the notified dengue cases georeferenced according to epidemiological week (EW) and home address. Kernel density estimation and space-time interaction were analysed using the Knox method. The evolution of the epidemic was analysed using an animated projection technique. The dengue incidence was 6.918.7/100,000 inhabitants; the peak of the epidemic occurred from 8 February-1 March, EWs 6-9 (828.7/100,000 inhabitants). There were cases throughout the city and was identified space-time interaction. Three epicenters were responsible for spreading the disease in an expansion and relocation diffusion pattern. If the health services could detect in real time the epicenters and apply nimbly control measures, may possibly reduce the magnitude of dengue epidemics.

Spatiotemporal dynamics of soil rotifers in a South-Bohemian beech forest

The objective of this work was to determine seasonal variation and vertical distribution of the soil rotifer assemblage in a climax beech forest in South Bohemia. During 2005, soil rotifer was investigated to the species level. Soil samples of 10 cm² and 10 cm in depth were divided into five layers, which were processed separately. Thirty one rotifer species were identified during the investigation. Dominant species significantly changed throughout the seasons. The most abundant species were Encentrum arvicola and Wierzejskiella vagneri among the monogononts, and Adineta steineri, Ceratotrocha cornigera, Habrotrocha filum, Habrotrocha ligula, Macrotrachela plicata, Mniobia tentans, Mniobia incrassata and Mniobia granulosa among the bdelloids. Mean Shannon diversity index varied from 1.99 to 2.63. Total rotifer abundance varied from 212±63 to 513±127 10³ individuals m-2 along the year, with the highest numbers found in May, and the lowest in July. The great part of the community was concentrated in the upper (fresh litter) and second (partially decomposed litter) layers and significantly decreased in the soil vertical profile on all sampling dates. The highest rotifer density of 43 individuals g-1 was found in the upper layer in May.

Occurrence of Lutzomyia longipalpis andhuman and canine cases of visceral leishmaniasis and evaluation of their expansion in the Northwest region of the State of São Paulo, Brazil

Abstract: INTRODUCTION This paper aims to describe the dispersion of Lutzomyia longipalpis and the autochthonous occurrence of visceral leishmaniasis (VL) in the Northwest region of the State of São Paulo between 2007 and 2013 and to analyze their expansion. METHODS Information about the vector and associated cases was described using maps. The incidence, mortality, and lethality of human visceral leishmaniasis (HVL) were calculated. In municipalities in which more than one HVL case occurred, incidences were calculated according to census sector, and spatial and spatiotemporal clusters were identified. RESULTS The first case of HVL was reported in the municipality of Jales in 2007. By 2013, the vector and the disease had expanded from west to east, with the vector being detected in 29 municipalities. A total of 11 municipalities had cases of canine visceral leishmaniasis (CVL), and six had cases of HVL. Vector expansion occurred by vicinity with previously infested municipalities, and the expansion of VL was related to the major highways and the capital municipalities of the micro-regions in the study area. The highest incidence of HVL occurred in children between 0-4 years old, and the highest mortality and lethality occurred among persons aged 60 and older. The occurrence of HLV was more intense in the peripheral areas of municipalities with the disease. CONCLUSIONS The findings of this study may be useful for improving VL surveillance and control activities by slowing VL expansion and/or mitigating VL effects when they occur.

Two decades of tuberculosis in a city in Northeastern Brazil: advances and challenges in time and space

Abstract: INTRODUCTION This study presents two decades of epidemiological data on tuberculosis (TB), in order to understanding the disease profile and its spatiotemporal dynamics. METHODS This descriptive study was performed in the City of Olinda/Pernambuco, Brazil, from 1991-2010, and it analyzed new patients with TB living in the city. We used the χ²-test with a p-value <0.05 to identify differences in trends. Incidence and cluster distribution were identified using spatial scan statistics. RESULTS In total, 6202 new cases were recorded during the two decades. The highest incidence occurred in 1995 (110 cases/100,000 inhabitants), and the lowest occurred in 2009 (65 cases/100,000 inhabitants) (β=-1.44; R²=0.43; p=0.0018). The highest mortality occurred in 1998 (16 deaths/100,000 inhabitants), and the lowest occurred in 2008 (5 deaths/100,000 inhabitants) (β=-0.19; R²=0.17; p=0.07). There was a male predominance (65%), and ages ranged from 20-49 years (65%). There was a substantial increase in the number of patients that were cured after treatment (60% to 67%; p<0.001) as well as those tested for HIV (1.9% to 58.5%; p<0.001). During the first decade, clusters with p-values <0.05 included 29% of the total notified cases, and in the second decade, that percentage was 12%. CONCLUSIONS We observed a decreasing trend in incidence, which was significant, and mortality rates, which was not significant. The increased number of laboratory tests performed reflects advances in surveillance, and a reduction in the proportion of cases in primary clusters suggests, among other things, that the disease is spreading across the region.

Retrospective distribution of Trypanosoma cruzi I genotypes in Colombia

Trypanosoma cruziis the aetiological agent of Chagas disease, which affects approximately eight million people in the Americas. This parasite exhibits genetic variability, with at least six discrete typing units broadly distributed in the American continent. T. cruziI (TcI) shows remarkable genetic diversity; a genotype linked to human infections and a domestic cycle of transmission have recently been identified, hence, this strain was named TcIDom. The aim of this work was to describe the spatiotemporal distribution of TcI subpopulations across humans, insect vectors and mammalian reservoirs in Colombia by means of molecular typing targeting the spliced leader intergenic region of mini-exon gene. We analysed 101 TcI isolates and observed a distribution of sylvatic TcI in 70% and TcIDom in 30%. In humans, the ratio was sylvatic TcI in 60% and TcIDom in 40%. In mammal reservoirs, the distribution corresponded to sylvatic TcI in 96% and TcIDom in 4%. Among insect vectors, sylvatic TcI was observed in 48% and TcIDom in 52%. In conclusion, the circulation of TcIDom is emerging in Colombia and this genotype is still adapting to the domestic cycle of transmission. The epidemiological and clinical implications of these findings are discussed herein.

Abundance of Lutzomyia longipalpis in urban households as risk factor of transmission of visceral leishmaniasis

Urban occurrence of human and canine visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is linked to households with characteristics conducive to the presence of sand flies. This study proposes an ad hoc classification of households according to the environmental characteristics of receptivity to phlebotominae and an entomological study to validate the proposal. Here we describe the phlebotominae population found in intra- and peridomiciliary environments and analyse the spatiotemporal distribution of the VL vector Lutzomyia longipalpis of households receptive to VL. In the region, 153 households were classified into levels of receptivity to VL followed by entomological surveys in 40 of those properties. Kruskal-Wallis verified the relationship between the households’ classification and sand fly abundance and Kernel analysis evaluated L. longipalpis spatial distribution: of the 740 sand flies were captured, 91% were L. longipalpis; 82% were found peridomiciliary whilst the remaining 18% were found intradomiciliary. No statistically significant association was found between sandflies and households levels. L. longipalpis counts were concentrated in areas of high vulnerability and some specific households were responsible for the persistence of the infestation. L. longipalpis prevails over other sand fly species for urban VL transmission. The entomological study may help target the surveillance and vector control strategies to domiciles initiating and/or maintaining VL outbreaks.

Orthoptera assemblages associated with macrophytes of floodplain lakes of the Paraná River

Orthoptera assemblages associated with macrophytes of floodplain lakes of the Paraná River. The Orthoptera assemblage composition varies considerably, depending on habitat type. This study examines the spatiotemporal relationship between plant diversity, hydrometric level, environmental variables and the Orthoptera richness and abundance in floodplain lakes connected permanently or temporarily with the main channel of the Paraná River. The grasshoppers were collected fortnightly (April 2006May 2007). A total of 17 species were recorded and classified according to their frequency of occurrence in constant (7), accessory (4), or accidental (6) species. In the two lakes, the greater species richness and abundance was recorded in summer, thereby coinciding with the highest water level of the Paraná River. The most significant correlation between the orthopteran richness and abundance was with the water level. The aquatic plant richness was significantly different between the lakes, but the vegetation was dominated by Eichhornia crassipes (Mart.) Solms. (Liliales, Pontederiaceae). The lake, which was connected permanently, presented the highest values of diversity and abundance, proving to be a more diverse assemblage. The beta diversity was higher in the temporary connected lake than in the permanently connected one. The orthopterans assemblages were different between the lakes, Cornops aquaticum and Tucayaca gracilis were the species that contributed more to the level of dissimilarity. C. aquaticum was more representative in the lake temporarily connected, while T. gracilis in the permanent connected one. The water level of the Paraná River and the connectivity of the floodplain lakes play an important role to explain the abundance and richness of their orthopteran assemblages.

Structure of Poduromorpha (Collembola) communities in "restinga" environments in Brazil

The objectives of this work were to evaluate the richness and diversity of the Poduromorpha fauna in two biotopes in Restinga de Maricá, RJ, Brazil, to identify the characteristic species of each biotope and to determine the relationships between the community structure and the abiotic environmental parameters. Representatives of the Poduromorpha (Collembola) order were studied under an ecological viewpoint in halophyte-psammophyte vegetation and foredune zone in preserved areas of Restinga de Maricá, a sand dune environment in the state of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. The foredune zone showed the highest diversity, richness and equitability of springtail species. Differences in the fundamental, accessory and accidental species in each environment were encountered. Paraxenylla piloua was found to be an indicator species of the halophyte-psammophyte vegetation, while Friesea reducta, Pseudachorutes difficilis and Xenylla maritima were indicators of the foredune zone. The canonical correspondence analysis indicated pH, organic matter content and soil humidity as the most important factors influencing the spatiotemporal distribution of the species.

Dinâmica complexa no sistema bromato/hipofosfito/acetona/manganês e ferroína

New chemical systems have been recently designed for the study of complex phenomena such as oscillatory dynamics in the temporal domain and spatiotemporal pattern formation. Systems derived from oscillators based on the chemistry of bromate are the most extensively studied, with the celebrated Belousov-Zhabotinsky (BZ) reaction being the most popular example. Problems such as the formation of bubbles (CO2) and solid precipitate in the course of the reaction and the occurrence of simply short-lived oscillations under batch conditions are very common and, in some cases, compromise the use of some of these systems. It is investigated in this paper the dynamic behavior of the bromate/hypophosphite/acetone/dual catalyst system, which has been sugested as an interesting alternative to circumvent those inconvenients. In this work, manganese and ferroin are employed as catalysts and the complete system (BrO3-/H2PO2-/acetone/Mn(II)-ferroin) is studied under batch conditions. Temporal symmetry breaking was studied in a reactor under agitation by means of simultaneous records of the potential changes of platinum and Ag/AgBr electrodes, both measured versus a reversible hydrogen electrode. Additionally, spatio-temporal formation of target patterns and spiral waves were obtained when the oscillating mixture was placed in a quasi two-dimensional reactor.