Computational modeling for irrigated agriculture planning. Part II: risk analysis

Techniques of evaluation of risks coming from inherent uncertainties to the agricultural activity should accompany planning studies. The risk analysis should be carried out by risk simulation using techniques as the Monte Carlo method. This study was carried out to develop a computer program so-called P-RISCO for the application of risky simulations on linear programming models, to apply to a case study, as well to test the results comparatively to the @RISK program. In the risk analysis it was observed that the average of the output variable total net present value, U, was considerably lower than the maximum U value obtained from the linear programming model. It was also verified that the enterprise will be front to expressive risk of shortage of water in the month of April, what doesn't happen for the cropping pattern obtained by the minimization of the irrigation requirement in the months of April in the four years. The scenario analysis indicated that the sale price of the passion fruit crop exercises expressive influence on the financial performance of the enterprise. In the comparative analysis it was verified the equivalence of P-RISCO and @RISK programs in the execution of the risk simulation for the considered scenario.

Some aspects of implementing Regulatory Impact Analysis in Brazil

In an increasingly complex society, regulatory polices emerge as an important tool in public management. Nevertheless, regulation per se is no longer enough, and the agenda for a regulatory reform is increasing. Following this context, Brazil has implemented Regulatory Impact Analysis (RIA) in its regulatory agencies. Thus, Brazilian specificities have to be considered and, in this regard, a systematic approach provides a significant contribution. This article aims to address some critical reflections about which policy-makers should ask themselves before joining the implementation of a RIA system in the Brazilian context. Through a long-term perspective, the implementation of RIA must be seen as part of a permanent change in the administrative culture, understanding that RIA should be used as a further resource in the decision-making process, rather than a final solution.

A multivariate analysis of the relationship between work ability and S. japonicum infection in Dongting Lake Region, in China

A cross-sectional case-control study on the association between the reduced work ability and S. japonicum infection was carried out in a moderate endemic area for schistosomiasis japonica in the southern part of Dongting lake in China. A total of 120 cases with reduced work ability and 240 controls paired to the case by age, sex, occupation and without reduced work ability, participated in the study. The mean age for individuals was 37.6 years old (21-60), the ratio of male: female was 60:40, the prevalence of S. japonicum in the individuals was 28.3%. The results obtained in this study showed that the infection of S. japonicum in case and control groups was 49.2% (59/120) and 17.9% (43/240), respectively. Odds ratio for reduced work ability among those who had schistosomiasis was 4.34 (95%), confidence interval was 2.58-7.34, and among those who had S. japonicum infection (egg per gram > 100) was up to 12.67 (95%), confidence interval was 3.64-46.39. After odds ratio was adjusted by multiple logistic regression, it was confirmed that heavier intensity of S. japonicum infection and splenomegaly due to S. japonicum infection were the main risk factors for reduced work ability in the population studied.

Guidelines on how to assess the validity of results presented in subgroup analysis of clinical trials

In observational studies, identification of associations within particular subgroups is the usual method of investigation. As an exploratory method, it is the bread and butter of epidemiological research. Nearly everything that has been learned in epidemiology has been derived from the analysis of subgroups. In a randomized clinical trial, the entire purpose is the comparison of the test subjects and the controls, and when there is particular interest in the results of treatment in a certain section of trial participants, a subgroup analysis is performed. These subgroups are examined to see if they are liable to a greater benefit or risk from treatment. Thus, analyzing patient subsets is a natural part of the process of improving therapeutic knowledge through clinical trials. Nevertheless, the reliability of subgroup analysis can often be poor because of problems of multiplicity and limitations in the numbers of patients studied. The naive interpretation of the results of such examinations is a cause of great confusion in the therapeutic literature. We emphasize the need for readers to be aware that inferences based on comparisons between subgroups in randomized clinical trials should be approached more cautiously than those based on the main comparison. That is, subgroup analysis results derived from a sound clinical trial are not necessarily valid; one must not jump to conclusions and accept the validity of subgroup analysis results without an appropriate judgment.

Critical analysis of the allocation policy for liver transplantation in Brazil

Liver transplantation is now the standard treatment for end-stage liver disease. Given the shortage of liver donors and the progressively higher number of patients waiting for transplantation, improvements in patient selection and optimization of timing for transplantation are needed. Several solutions have been suggested, including increasing the donor pool; a fair policy for allocation, not permitting variables such as age, gender, and race, or third-party payer status to play any role; and knowledge of the natural history of each liver disease for which transplantation is offered. To observe ethical rules and distributive justice (guarantee to every citizen the same opportunity to get an organ), the "sickest first" policy must be used. Studies have demonstrated that death has no relationship with waiting time, but rather with the severity of liver disease at the time of inclusion. Thus, waiting time is no longer part of the United Network for Organ Sharing distribution criteria. Waiting time only differentiates between equally severely diseased patients. The authors have analyzed the waiting list mortality and 1-year survival for patients of the State of São Paulo, from July 1997 through January 2001. Only the chronological criterion was used. According to "Secretaria de Estado da Saúde de São Paulo" data, among all waiting list deaths, 82.2% occurred within the first year, and 37.6% within the first 3 months following inclusion. The allocation of livers based on waiting time is neither fair nor ethical, impairs distributive justice and human rights, and does not occur in any other part of the world.

Analysis of the Association Between Apolipoprotein E Polymorphism and Cardiovascular Risk Factors in an Elderly Population with Longevity

OBJECTIVE: To establish the allelic and genotypic frequencies related to apolipoprotein E (ApoE) polymorphism and association of the genotypes with risk factors and cardiovascular morbidity in an elderly population with longevity. METHODS: We analyzed 70 elderly patients aged 80 years or more who were part of the Projeto Veranópolis. We used the gene amplification technique through the polymerase chain reaction-restriction fragment length polymorphism (PCR-RFLP) and cleavage with the restriction enzyme Hha I to identify the ApoE genotypes. The most frequent genotypes were compared considering biological variables and cardiovascular risks and morbidity. RESULTS: The frequencies of the E2, E3, and E4 alleles were 0.05, 0.84, and 0.11, respectively, and of the genotypes were as follows: E3E3 (0.70), E3E4 (0.22), E2E3 (0.06), and E2E2 (0.02). Individuals with the E3E4 had a mean age greater than those with the E3E3. No association was observed between the genotypes and the variables analyzed, except for obesity, which was associated with the E3E3 genotype. Individuals with the E3E4 genotype had high levels of LDL-cholesterol and fibrinogen as compared with those with the E3E3 genotype. CONCLUSION: The results suggest that the E4E4 genotype may be associated with early mortality. A balance between the protective or neutral factors and the cardiovascular risk factors may occur among the individuals with different genotypes, attenuating the negative effects of the E4 allele.

Molecular analysis of yellow fever virus 17DD vaccine strain

The Oswaldo Cruz Foundation produces most of the yellow fever (YF) vaccine prepared world wide. As part of a broader approach to determine the genetic variability in YF l7D seeds and vaccines and its relevance to viral attenuation the 17DD virus was purifed directly from chick embryo homogenates which is the source of virus used for vaccination of millions of people in Brazil and other countries for half a century. Neutralization and hemagglutination tests showed that the purified virus is similar to the original stock. Furthermore, radioimmune precipitation of 35S-methionine-labeled viral proteins using mouse hyperimmune ascitic fluid revealed identical patterns for the purified 17DD virus and the YF l7D-204 strain except for the 17DD E protein which migrated slower on SDS-PAGE. This difference is likely to be due to N-linked glycosylation. Finally, comparison by northern blot nybridization of virion RNAs of purified 17DD with two other strains of YF virus only fenome-sized molecules for all three viruses. These observations suggest that vaccine phenotype is primarily associated with the accumulation of mutations.

Variability of apparently homogeneous soilscapes in São Paulo state, Brazil: I. spatial analysis

The spatial variability of strongly weathered soils under sugarcane and soybean/wheat rotation was quantitatively assessed on 33 fields in two regions in São Paulo State, Brazil: Araras (15 fields with sugarcane) and Assis (11 fields with sugarcane and seven fields with soybean/wheat rotation). Statistical methods used were: nested analysis of variance (for 11 fields), semivariance analysis and analysis of variance within and between fields. Spatial levels from 50 m to several km were analyzed. Results are discussed with reference to a previously published study carried out in the surroundings of Passo Fundo (RS). Similar variability patterns were found for clay content, organic C content and cation exchange capacity. The fields studied are quite homogeneous with respect to these relatively stable soil characteristics. Spatial variability of other characteristics (resin extractable P, pH, base- and Al-saturation and also soil colour), varies with region and, or land use management. Soil management for sugarcane seems to have induced modifications to greater depths than for soybean/wheat rotation. Surface layers of soils under soybean/wheat present relatively little variation, apparently as a result of very intensive soil management. The major part of within-field variation occurs at short distances (< 50 m) in all study areas. Hence, little extra information would be gained by increasing sampling density from, say, 1/km² to 1/50 m². For many purposes, the soils in the study regions can be mapped with the same observation density, but residual variance will not be the same in all areas. Bulk sampling may help to reveal spatial patterns between 50 and 1.000 m.

Diagnostic techniques applied in geostatistics for agricultural data analysis

The structural modeling of spatial dependence, using a geostatistical approach, is an indispensable tool to determine parameters that define this structure, applied on interpolation of values at unsampled points by kriging techniques. However, the estimation of parameters can be greatly affected by the presence of atypical observations in sampled data. The purpose of this study was to use diagnostic techniques in Gaussian spatial linear models in geostatistics to evaluate the sensitivity of maximum likelihood and restrict maximum likelihood estimators to small perturbations in these data. For this purpose, studies with simulated and experimental data were conducted. Results with simulated data showed that the diagnostic techniques were efficient to identify the perturbation in data. The results with real data indicated that atypical values among the sampled data may have a strong influence on thematic maps, thus changing the spatial dependence structure. The application of diagnostic techniques should be part of any geostatistical analysis, to ensure a better quality of the information from thematic maps.

Hydrogels of cellulose acetate crosslinked with pyromellitic dianhydride: part I: synthesis and swelling kinetics

This work describes the synthesis of hydrogels of cellulose acetate (AC) crosslinked with 1,2,4,5-benzenotetracarboxylic dianhydride (PMDA). The crosslinking reaction was monitored by FTIR. Analysis of aromatic fragments from the alkaline hydrolysis of the gels by UV spectroscopy indicated that an increase in the stoichiometric ratio of dianhydride resulted in higher degrees of crosslinking. The non-porous nature of the gels was confirmed by analysis of nitrogen adsorption. Water absorption isotherms showed that as the temperature and degree of crosslinking increased, the percentage of water absorbed at equilibrium (%Seq) also increased. The hydrogels presented second order swelling kinetics.

Analysis of the nucleotide sequence of the coat protein and 3'-untranslated region of two Brazilian Potato virus Y isolates

Two Brazilian Potato virus Y (PVY) isolates were biologically characterized as necrotic (PVY-NBR) and common (PVY-OBR) based upon symptoms on test plants. Additional characterization was performed by sequencing a cDNA corresponding to the 3' terminal region of the viral genome. The sequence consisted of 195 nucleotides (nt) coding part of the nuclear inclusion body b (NIb) gene, 804 nt of the coat protein (CP) gene, and 328 nt (PVY-OBR) or 326 nt (PVY-NBR) of the 3'-untranslated region (UTR). Translation of the sequence resulted in one single open reading frame with part of the NIb and a CP of 267 amino acids. The two isolates shared 95.1% similarity in the CP amino acid sequence. The CP and the 3'-UTR sequence of the Brazilian isolates were compared to those of other PVY isolates previously reported and unrooted phylogenetic trees were constructed. The trees revealed a separation of two distinct clusters, one comprising most of the common strains and the other comprising the necrotic strains. PVY-OBR was clustered in the common group and PVY-NBR in the necrotic one.

Analysis of private natural heritage reserves as a conservation strategy for the biodiversity of the cocoa region of the southern State of Bahia, Brazil

Brazil was the first country in Latin America to establish and regulate this type of reserve, and there are currently more than 700 Private Nature Heritage Reserves (RPPN in Portuguese) officially recognized by either federal or state environmental agencies. Together, these RPPN protect more than a half million hectares of land in the country. The coastal forests in the southern part of Bahia State extend 100 to 200 km inland, gradually changing in physiognomy as they occupy the dryer inland areas. The coastal forest has been subjected to intense deforestation, and currently occupies less than 10% of its original area. For this work the creation processes of the RPPN were consulted to obtain the data creation time, size of property, the condition of the remaining forest, succession chain and the last paid tax. After that, interviews with the owners were made to confirm this data. Sixteen RPPN have been established in this region until 2005. Their sizes vary from 4.7 to 800 ha. Ten of these RPPN are located within state or federal conservation areas or their buffer zones. In spite of the numerous national and international conservation strategies and environmental policies focused on the region, the present situation of the cocoa zone is threatening the conservation of the region's natural resources. The establishment of private reserves in the cocoa region could conceivably improve these conservation efforts. This type of reserve can be established under a uniform system supported by federal legislation, and could count on private organizations.

Computational modeling for irrigated agriculture planning. Part I: general description and linear programming

Linear programming models are effective tools to support initial or periodic planning of agricultural enterprises, requiring, however, technical coefficients that can be determined using computer simulation models. This paper, presented in two parts, deals with the development, application and tests of a methodology and of a computational modeling tool to support planning of irrigated agriculture activities. Part I aimed at the development and application, including sensitivity analysis, of a multiyear linear programming model to optimize the financial return and water use, at farm level for Jaíba irrigation scheme, Minas Gerais State, Brazil, using data on crop irrigation requirement and yield, obtained from previous simulation with MCID model. The linear programming model outputted a crop pattern to which a maximum total net present value of R$ 372,723.00 for the four years period, was obtained. Constraints on monthly water availability, labor, land and production were critical in the optimal solution. In relation to the water use optimization, it was verified that an expressive reductions on the irrigation requirements may be achieved by small reductions on the maximum total net present value.

Soursop seedlings: emergence and development under different cultivation environments and substrates – Part I

ABSTRACT Seedling quality is crucial to obtain vigorous plants in the field. This study aims to evaluate the emergence and development of soursop seedlings in different substrates in protected environments. The experiment was conducted at the Mato Grosso do Sul State University and carried out using five protected environments: greenhouse, greenhouse with thermo-reflective screen, nursery with monofilament screen, nursery with thermo-reflective screen, and nursery with palm thatch. The substrates (S) consisted of cattle manure (M), humus (H), cassava branches (C), and vermiculite (V) as in the following ratios: S1 = H + V (1:3), S2 = H + V (1:1), S3 = H + V (3:1), S4 = H + C (1:3), S5 = H + C (1:1), S6 = H + C (3:1), S7 = M + V (1:3), S8 = M + V (1:1), S9 = M + V (3:1), S10 = M + C (1:3), S11 = M + C (1:1), S12 = M + C (3:1), S13 = H + M + V (1:1:1), S14 = H + M + C (1:1:1), and S15 = H + M + V + C (1:1:1:1). For the statistical analysis, each of those environments was considered as an experiment in which was used the completely randomized design; subsequently, it was performed a combined analysis of them. In summary, the greenhouse with thermo-reflective screen and combined substrates with “M + V” promote greater development of the seedlings. High concentrations of “V” or “C” cause no beneficial effect on soursop seedlings.

Soursop seedlings: biomasses and biometric relations in different farming environments and substrates – Part II

ABSTRACT The quality of seedling is critical to obtain vigorous plants in the field. The present study aimed to assess biomasses and biometric relations of soursop seedlings. We used different substrates in protected environments. The experiment was performed at the Universidade Estadual do Mato Grosso do Sul (UFMS) (State University of Mato Grosso do Sul). Five farming environments were developed in greenhouses: one covered with low-density polyethylene film (LDPE), another with with polyethylene and heat-reflective cloth under film under 50% shading in aluminized color, monofilament cloth under 50% shading in black, thermo-reflective cloth under 50% shading in aluminized color, and an environment covered with bacuri coconut straw. Substrates were made of manure, humus, cassava branches and vermiculite at different proportions. Each of them varying from 25%, 33.3%, 50% and 75% in mixture combination. Each environment was considered an experiment. A completely randomized design was adopted and later a joint analysis of them. Agricultural greenhouse covered with LDPE and thermo-reflective cloths under 50% of shading, proportionated seedlings with greater biomass. Substrates containing manure are the most suitable for soursop seedlings. High percentages of earthworm humus produce low quality soursop seedlings. Soursop seedlings had a Dickson’s quality index around 0.335. The greenhouse covered only with LDPE film did not produce high quality seedlings.