Logistic regression to estimate the welfare of broiler breeders in relation to environmental and behavioral variables

The increasing demand of consumer markets for the welfare of birds in poultry house has motivated many scientific researches to monitor and classify the welfare according to the production environment. Given the complexity between the birds and the environment of the aviary, the correct interpretation of the conduct becomes an important way to estimate the welfare of these birds. This study obtained multiple logistic regression models with capacity of estimating the welfare of broiler breeders in relation to the environment of the aviaries and behaviors expressed by the birds. In the experiment, were observed several behaviors expressed by breeders housed in a climatic chamber under controlled temperatures and three different ammonia concentrations from the air monitored daily. From the analysis of the data it was obtained two logistic regression models, of which the first model uses a value of ammonia concentration measured by unit and the second model uses a binary value to classify the ammonia concentration that is assigned by a person through his olfactory perception. The analysis showed that both models classified the broiler breeder's welfare successfully.

Atherosclerosis in aged mice over-expressing the reverse cholesterol transport genes

We determined whether over-expression of one of the three genes involved in reverse cholesterol transport, apolipoprotein (apo) AI, lecithin-cholesterol acyl transferase (LCAT) and cholesteryl ester transfer protein (CETP), or of their combinations influenced the development of diet-induced atherosclerosis. Eight genotypic groups of mice were studied (AI, LCAT, CETP, LCAT/AI, CETP/AI, LCAT/CETP, LCAT/AI/CETP, and non-transgenic) after four months on an atherogenic diet. The extent of atherosclerosis was assessed by morphometric analysis of lipid-stained areas in the aortic roots. The relative influence (R²) of genotype, sex, total cholesterol, and its main sub-fraction levels on atherosclerotic lesion size was determined by multiple linear regression analysis. Whereas apo AI (R² = 0.22, P < 0.001) and CETP (R² = 0.13, P < 0.01) expression reduced lesion size, the LCAT (R² = 0.16, P < 0.005) and LCAT/AI (R² = 0.13, P < 0.003) genotypes had the opposite effect. Logistic regression analysis revealed that the risk of developing atherosclerotic lesions greater than the 50th percentile was 4.3-fold lower for the apo AI transgenic mice than for non-transgenic mice, and was 3.0-fold lower for male than for female mice. These results show that apo AI overexpression decreased the risk of developing large atherosclerotic lesions but was not sufficient to reduce the atherogenic effect of LCAT when both transgenes were co-expressed. On the other hand, CETP expression was sufficient to eliminate the deleterious effect of LCAT and LCAT/AI overexpression. Therefore, increasing each step of the reverse cholesterol transport per se does not necessarily imply protection against atherosclerosis while CETP expression can change specific athero genic scenarios.

DISPOSITION EFFECT AMONG BRAZILIAN EQUITY FUND MANAGERS

The disposition effect predicts that investors tend to sell winning stocks too soon and ride losing stocks too long. Despite the wide range of research evidence about this issue, the reasons that lead investors to act this way are still subject to much controversy between rational and behavioral explanations. In this article, the main goal was to test two competing behavioral motivations to justify the disposition effect: prospect theory and mean reversion bias. To achieve it, an analysis of monthly transactions for a sample of 51 Brazilian equity funds from 2002 to 2008 was conducted and regression models with qualitative dependent variables were estimated in order to set the probability of a manager to realize a capital gain or loss as a function of the stock return. The results brought evidence that prospect theory seems to guide the decision-making process of the managers, but the hypothesis that the disposition effect is due to mean reversion bias could not be confirmed.

ABOUT PSYCHOLOGICAL VARIABLES IN APPLICATION SCORING MODELS

The purpose of this study is to investigate the contribution of psychological variables and scales suggested by Economic Psychology in predicting individuals’ default. Therefore, a sample of 555 individuals completed a self-completion questionnaire, which was composed of psychological variables and scales. By adopting the methodology of the logistic regression, the following psychological and behavioral characteristics were found associated with the group of individuals in default: a) negative dimensions related to money (suffering, inequality and conflict); b) high scores on the self-efficacy scale, probably indicating a greater degree of optimism and over-confidence; c) buyers classified as compulsive; d) individuals who consider it necessary to give gifts to children and friends on special dates, even though many people consider this a luxury; e) problems of self-control identified by individuals who drink an average of more than four glasses of alcoholic beverage a day.

INTERNATIONALIZATION OF BRAZILIAN FRANCHISE CHAINS: A COMPARATIVE STUDY

The primary goal of this paper is to comprehend the fundamental organizational differences between Brazilian franchise chains that only operate in the home market and Brazilian franchise chains that operate internationally. The sample chosen for this study comprehends 96 Brazilian franchises operating in the home market and 67 franchises with international operations; logistic regression was used to analyze data obtained from these sources. Our findings suggest that the development of a brand in international operations can be strategic for certain Brazilian franchise chains; this seems to be, however, a scarce resource for many franchises and it could be developed through international operations. With regard to the fees charged, the outcomes demonstrate that Brazilian franchises with international operations tend to charge lower fees from its franchisees to install new units. Regarding the monitoring and control of franchises, there is evidence that the monitoring capability is one of the determining factors in the development of Brazilian franchises international operations.

DETERMINANTS OF THE SUCCESS OF GLOBAL AND LOCAL BRANDS IN LATIN AMERICA

ABSTRACTThe purpose of this paper is to address the issue of the implementation of global and local brands in Latin America by drawing on contingency theory to develop and test hypotheses relating to how product category characteristics affect the success of global and local brands in the region. Hypotheses are tested using data obtained from top brands rankings reported in five Latin American markets (Argentina, Brazil, the Caribbean and Central America, Chile and Mexico). The study design considers estimating a logistic regression on a binomial dependent variable measuring whether 475 top brands are global or local brands, with product category characteristics as independent variables. Results reveal that product categories related to subscriptions, local tastes, high-tech, and global citizenship do have an impact on the success of global and local brands in Latin America.

Subsequent pregnancies: who has them and who wants them? Observations from an urban center in Southern Brazil

Subsequent pregnancies in mothers of a birth cohort from Pelotas, Southern Brazil, were studied in relation to maternal and socio-economic factors. Within about 3 1/2 years of the cohort child's birth, 39% of mothers had experienced at least one further pregnancy. This proportion decreased with increasing maternal age, years of schooling and family income. A U-shaped trend was observed with respect to parity. Mothers who had delivered the cohort child by caesarean section were also less likely to have another pregnancy within that time. Logistic regression analysis showed that each of these factors remained significantly associated with further pregnancies after controlling for the remaining variables. Analysis of the first subsequent pregnancy showed that a high proportion of mothers had not wanted the pregnancy. Unwanted pregnancies were also significantly associated with older women, low educational status, higher parity and low family income.

Assessment and prediction of asthma and its severity in the pediatric community

Seventy four asthmatic children aged 7 to 11 years were examined along with controls matched by age and sex. Clinical and laboratory investigations preceded a 28-day follow-up where data about morning and evening peak expiratory flow rate (PEF), symptoms and treatment were recorded. The coefficient of variation of PEF was found to be an objective measurement of asthma severity that has statistically significant correlation with both symptoms (r s= .36) and treatment (r s= .60). Moreover, it separates mild and severe asthmatics, as confirmed by statistically significant differences (p= .008 or less) in symptoms, treatment, skin allergy and airways response to exercise. Skin allergy and airways responsiveness to exercise were found to be predictors of both disease and severity. By means of logistic regression analysis it was possible to establish the probabilities for both asthma and severe asthma when children presenting and not presenting these characteristics are compared. One single positive skin test represent a probability of 88% for the development of asthma and a probability of 70% for severe disease. A PEF reduction of 10% after an exercise test implies a probability of 73% for disease and a probability of 64% for severe disease. Increases in these variables imply geometrically increased risks and their presence together have a multiplicative effect in the final risk.

Risk factors for basal cell carcinoma: a case-control study

A controlled trial was performed with the purpose of investigating which factors could be considered of significant risk for the development of basal cell carcinoma. A total of 259 cases of basal cell carcinoma diagnosed from July 1991 to July 1992 were compared with 518 controls matched for age and sex. All subjects in both groups were white. Protocol data were submitted to statistical analysis by the chi-square test and by multiple conditional logistic regression analysis and the following conclusions were reached: 1) light skin color (types I and II of the Fitzpatrick classification), odds ratio of 2.8; outdoor work under constant sunlight, odds ratio of 5.0; the presence of actinic lesions due to exposure to the sun, odds ratio of 4.9, are risk factors perse. 2) Type III skin in the Fitzpatrick classification only represents a risk factor when the patient reports a history of intense sunburns, but not in the absence of such a history. 3) Sunburns per se do not represent a risk factor althorig the point made in item 2 of these conclusions is valid. 4) Other suspected risk factors whose significance was not confirmed by multiple conditioned logistic regression analysis were: residence in rural areas, light eyes and blond hair color, extent of the awareness of the "sun x skin cancer" relationship, familial occurrence of skin cancer, excessive exposure to the sun, and freckles appearing in childhood.

Susceptibility of asthmatic children to respiratory infection

OBJECTIVE: A case-control study of patients with pneumonia was conducted to investigate whether wheezing diseases could be a risk factor. METHODS: A random sample was taken from a general university hospital in S. Paulo City between March and August 1994 comprising 51 cases of pneumonia paired by age and sex to 51 non-respiratory controls and 51 healthy controls. Data collection was carried out by two senior paediatricians. Diagnoses of pneumonia and presence of wheezing disease were independently established by each paediatrician for both cases and controls. Pneumonia was radiologically confirmed and repeatability of information on wheezing diseases was measured. Logistic regression analysis was used to identify risk factors. RESULTS: Wheezing diseases, interpreted as proxies of asthma, were found to be an important risk factor for pneumonia with an odds ratio of 7.07 (95%CI= 2.34-21.36), when the effects of bedroom crowding (odds ratio = 1.49 per person, 95%CI= 0.95-2.32) and of low family income (odds ratio = 5.59 against high family income, 95%CI= 1.38-22.63) were controlled. The risk of pneumonia attributable to wheezing diseases is tentatively calculated at 51.42%. CONCLUSION: It is concluded that at practice level asthmatics should deserve proper surveillance for infection and that at public health level pneumonia incidence could be reduced if current World Health Organisation's guidelines were reviewed as to include comprehensive care for this illness.

Predicting the revolving door phenomenon among patients with schizophrenic, affective disorders and non-organic psychoses

OBJECTIVE: The aim of the study was to identify the variables that predict the revolving door phenomenon in psychiatric hospital at the moment of a second admission. METHODS: The sample consisted of 3,093 patients who have been followed during 5 to 24 years after their first hospital admission due to schizophrenia, and affective or psychotic disorders. Those who had had four or more admissions during the study period were considered as revolving door patients. Logistic regression analyses were used to assess the impact of gender, age, marital status, urban conditions, diagnosis, mean period of stay on the first admission, interval between the first and second admissions on the patterns of hospitalization. RESULTS: The variables with the highest predictive power for readmission were the interval between first and second admissions, and the length of stay in the first admission. CONCLUSIONS: These data may help public health planners in providing optimal care to a small group of patients with more effective utilization of the available services.

Nutritional status of pregnant women: prevalence and associated pregnancy outcomes

INTRODUCTION: Although obesity is well recognized as a current public health problem, its prevalence and impact among pregnant women have been less investigated in Brazil. The objective of the study was to evaluate the impact of pre-obesity and obesity among pregnant women, describing its prevalence and risk factors, and their association with adverse pregnancy outcomes. METHODS: A cohort of 5,564 pregnant women, aged 20 years or more, enrolled at aproximately 20 to 28 weeks of pregnancy, seen in prenatal public clinics of six state capitals in Brazil were followed up, between 1991 and 1995. Prepregnancy weight, age, educational level and parity were obtained from a standard questionnaire. Height was measured in duplicate and the interviewer assigned the skin color. Nutritional status was defined using body mass index (BMI), according to World Health Organization (WHO) criteria. Odds ratios and 95% confidence interval were calculated using logistic regression. RESULTS: Age-adjusted prevalences (and 95% CI) based on prepregnancy weight were: underweight 5.7% (5.1%-6.3%), overweight 19.2% (18.1%-20.3%), and obesity 5.5% (4.9%-6.2%). Obesity was more frequently observed in older black women, with a lower educational level and multiparous. Obese women had higher frequencies of gestational diabetes, macrosomia, hypertensive disorders, and lower risk of microsomia. CONCLUSIONS: Overweight nutritional status (obesity and pre-obesity) was seen in 25% of adult pregnant women and it was associated with increased risk for several adverse pregnancy outcomes, such as gestational diabetes and pre-eclampsia.

Reproductive outcomes in an area adjacent to a petrochemical plant in southern Brazil

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate possible adverse reproductive outcomes in an area adjacent to a petrochemical plant in southern Brazil. METHODS: A review of 17,113 birth records of the main hospital of the municipality of Montenegro, southern Brazil, from 1983 to 1998 was carried out. Three groups of cases were selected: (1) newborns with major congenital malformations; (2) newborns with low birth weight (<2,500 g); and (3) stillborns (>500 g). A control was assigned to each case. Controls were the first newborns weighing > or = 2,500 g without malformations and of case-matching sex. Mother's residence during pregnancy was used as an exposure parameter. Statistical analyses were performed using Chi-square test or Fisher test, odds ratio, 0.05 significance level, and 95% confidence interval. RESULTS: For unadjusted analysis, it was found a correlation between low birth weight and geographical proximity of mother's residence to the petrochemical plant (OR = 1.66; 95% CI = 1.01--2.72) or residence on the way of preferential wind direction (OR = 1.62; 95% CI = 1.03--2.56). When other covariates were added in the conditional logistic regression (maternal smoking habits, chronic disease and age), there was no association. CONCLUSIONS: Despite final results were negative, low birth weight could be a good parameter of environmental contamination and should be closely monitored in the studied area.

Occupational accidents among middle and high school students of the state of São Paulo, Brazil

OBJECTIVES: To estimate the prevalence of occupational injuries and identify their risk factors among students in two municipalities. METHODS: A cross-sectional survey was conducted in public schools of the municipalities of Santo Antonio do Pinhal and Monteiro Lobato, Brazil. A stratified probabilistic sample was drawn from public middle and high schools of the study municipalities. A total of 781 students aged 11 to 19 years participated in the study. Students attending middle and high school answered a comprehensive questionnaire on living and working conditions, as well as aspects of work injuries, and health conditions. Multiple logistic regression models were fitted to estimate risk factors of previous and present occupational injuries. RESULTS: Of 781 students, 604 previously had or currently have jobs and 47% reported previous injuries. Among current workers (n=555), 38% reported injuries on their current job. Risk factors for work injuries with statistically significant odds ratio >2.0 included attending evening school, working as a housekeeper, waiter or brickmaker, and with potentially dangerous machines. CONCLUSIONS: The study results reinforce the need of restricting adolescent work and support communities to implement social promotion programs.

Association between child-care and acute diarrhea: a study in Portuguese children

OBJECTIVE: To quantify the influence of the type of child-care on the occurrence of acute diarrhea with special emphasis on the effect of children grouping during care. METHODS: From October 1998 to January 1999 292 children, aged 24 to 36 months, recruited using a previously assembled cohort of newborns, were evaluated. Information on the type of care and occurrence of diarrhea in the previous year was obtained from parents by telephone interview. The X² and Kruskal-Wallis tests were used to compare proportions and quantitative variables, respectively. The risk of diarrhea was estimated through the calculation of incident odds ratios (OR) and their respective 95% confidence intervals (95% CI), crude and adjusted by unconditional logistic regression. RESULTS: Using as reference category children cared individually at home, the adjusted ORs for diarrhea occurrence were 3.18, 95% CI [1.49, 6.77] for children cared in group at home, 2.28, 95% CI [0.92, 5.67] for children cared in group in day-care homes and 2.54, 95% CI [1.21, 5.33] for children cared in day-care centers. Children that changed from any other type of child-care setting to child-care centers in the year preceding the study showed a risk even higher (OR 7.65, 95% CI [3.25, 18.02]). CONCLUSIONS: Group care increases the risk of acute diarrhea whatsoever the specific setting.