CROSS-COUNTRY STUDY ON THE DETERMINANTS OF BANK FINANCIAL DISTRESS

ABSTRACTBank failures affect owners, employees, and customers, possibly causing large-scale economic distress. Thus, banks must evaluate operational risks and develop early warning systems. This study investigates bank failures in the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development, the North America Free Trade Area (NAFTA), the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, the European Union, newly industrialized countries, the G20, and the G8. We use financial ratios to analyze and explore the appropriateness of prediction models. Results show that capital ratios, interest income compared to interest expenses, non-interest income compared to non-interest expenses, return on equity, and provisions for loan losses have significantly negative correlations with bank failure. However, loan ratios, non-performing loans, and fixed assets all have significantly positive correlations with bank failure. In addition, the accuracy of the logistic model for banks from NAFTA countries provides the best prediction accuracy regarding bank failure.

Análise do retorno dos investimentos socioambientais das empresas brasileiras

Este estudo investiga a relação entre os investimentos uma relação de causalidade entre investimento social socioambientais e o desempenho financeiro das em-interno e desempenho financeiro, pois os investimenpresas brasileiras de 2001 a 2007. As regressões esti-tos sociais voltados para os empregados da empresa madas com base no modelo de efeitos fixos analisam têm um efeito positivo sobre a variável Return on a correlação entre as variáveis de desempenho socio-Assets (ROA). Essa conclusão está de acordo com os ambiental e financeiro, enquanto as estimações usando resultados obtidos por Laan e outros (2008), os quais modelos de variável instrumental analisam a relação indicam que investimentos realizados nas demandas de causalidade entre esses indicadores. Os resultados sociais de stakeholders primários (empregados, conrevelam uma correlação positiva entre investimento sumidores e investidores) contribuem para melhorar socioambiental e desempenho financeiro, sobretudo o desempenho financeiro, o que não acontece com o investimento social interno. Além disso, revelam investimentos voltados para stakeholders secundários.

Intra-hospital organ and tissue donation coordination project: cost-effectiveness and social benefits

OBJECTIVE To evaluate the viability of a professional specialist in intra-hospital committees of organ and tissue donation for transplantation. METHODS Epidemiological, retrospective and cross-sectional study (2003-2011 and 2008-2012), which was performed using organ donation for transplants data in the state of Sao Paulo, Southeastern Brazil. Nine hospitals were evaluated (hospitals 1 to 9). Logistic regression was used to evaluate the differences in the number of brain death referrals and actual donors (dependent variables) after the professional specialist started work (independent variable) at the intra-hospital committee of organ and tissue donation for transplantation. To evaluate the hospital invoicing, the hourly wage of the doctor and registered nurse, according to the legislation of the Consolidation of Labor Laws, were calculated, as were the investment return and the time elapsed to do so. RESULTS Following the nursing specialist commencement on the committee, brain death referrals and the number of actual donors increased at hospital 2 (4.17 and 1.52, respectively). At hospital 7, the number of actual donors also increased from 0.005 to 1.54. In addition, after the nurse started working, hospital revenues increased by 190.0% (ranging 40.0% to 1.955%). The monthly cost for the nurse working 20 hours was US$397.97 while the doctor would cost US$3,526.67. The return on investment was 275% over the short term (0.36 years). CONCLUSIONS This paper showed that including a professional specialist in intra-hospital committees for organ and tissue donation for transplantation proved to be cost-effective. Further economic research in the area could contribute to the efficient public policy implementation of this organ and tissue harvesting model.

INCLUDING RISK IN ECONOMIC FEASIBILITY ANALYSIS:A STOCHASTIC SIMULATION MODEL FOR BLUEBERRY INVESTMENT DECISIONS IN CHILE

ABSTRACT The traditional method of net present value (NPV) to analyze the economic profitability of an investment (based on a deterministic approach) does not adequately represent the implicit risk associated with different but correlated input variables. Using a stochastic simulation approach for evaluating the profitability of blueberry (Vaccinium corymbosum L.) production in Chile, the objective of this study is to illustrate the complexity of including risk in economic feasibility analysis when the project is subject to several but correlated risks. The results of the simulation analysis suggest that the non-inclusion of the intratemporal correlation between input variables underestimate the risk associated with investment decisions. The methodological contribution of this study illustrates the complexity of the interrelationships between uncertain variables and their impact on the convenience of carrying out this type of business in Chile. The steps for the analysis of economic viability were: First, adjusted probability distributions for stochastic input variables (SIV) were simulated and validated. Second, the random values of SIV were used to calculate random values of variables such as production, revenues, costs, depreciation, taxes and net cash flows. Third, the complete stochastic model was simulated with 10,000 iterations using random values for SIV. This result gave information to estimate the probability distributions of the stochastic output variables (SOV) such as the net present value, internal rate of return, value at risk, average cost of production, contribution margin and return on capital. Fourth, the complete stochastic model simulation results were used to analyze alternative scenarios and provide the results to decision makers in the form of probabilities, probability distributions, and for the SOV probabilistic forecasts. The main conclusion shown that this project is a profitable alternative investment in fruit trees in Chile.

Benefits of automated acclimatization during the pre-milking phase of lactating girolando cows

The aim of this paper was to evaluate the automated acclimatization effects during pre-milking of cows on thermal conditioning, physiology, milk production and cost-benefit of the automated adiabatic evaporative cooling system (AECS). The treatments 20; 30; 40 min and control consisted of exposure time of pre-milking cows to the automated AECS. Sixteen cows were used with an average daily milk yield of 19 kg, distributed in a 4 x 4 Latin square design. The Tukey's test (P<0.05) was used to compare the means. The environmental variables, dry bulb temperature (DBT, ºC) and relative humidity (RH, %), were recorded every minute, which allowed the determination of the system efficiency through the Temperature and Humidity Index (THI). The respiratory rate (RR), rectal temperature (RT) and temperature of the coat (TC) were measured before and after the acclimatization. The 40 min treatment kept the environmental variables and the comfort indexes within recommended limits. The physiological variables (RR, RT and TC) were lower in the 40 min treatment and reflected positively on milk production, which increased 3.66% compared to the control treatment. The system was profitable, having a 43 days return on investment and a monthly revenue increase of R$ 1,992.67.

Effect of investments on fundamentals and market reaction on pre-operational and operational Brazilian companies for the period 2006-2012

ABSTRACT This paper provides evidence on the market reaction to corporate investment decisions whose shareholder value is largely attributed to growth options. The exploratory research raised pre-operational companies and their operational pairs on the same economy segments. It had the purpose of investigating the existence of statistical differentiation from financial indicators that reflect the installed assets and growth assets, and then study the market reaction to changes in fixed assets as a signaling element about investment decisions. The formation process of operational assets and shareholder value almost exclusively dependent on asset growth stands out in the pre-operational companies. As a result, differentiation tests confirmed that the pre-operational companies had their value especially derived on growth options. The market reaction was particularly bigger in pre-operational companies with abnormal negative stock returns, while the operational companies had positive returns, which may indicate that the quality of the investment is judged based on the financial disclosure. Additionally, operational companies' investors await the disclosure to adjust their prices. We conclude that the results are consistent with the empirical evidence and the participants in financial markets to long-term capital formation investments should give that special attention.

Thidiazuron effects on shoot growth, return bloom, fruit set and nutrition of apples

Apple (Malus domestica Borkh.) trees, cultivars Gala and Fuji, were sprayed at full bloom with thidiazuron (TDZ) at doses of 0, 5, 10, or 20 g ha-1 of a.i. in order to evaluate its effects on plant growth and development, return bloom, fruit set, nutrition, and fruit yield. Fruit set increased with TDZ dose in 'Gala' but not in 'Fuji'. TDZ did not affect fruit yield in any cultivar. In 'Gala', the return bloom was reduced in about 50% at TDZ doses of 10 or 20 g ha-1. TDZ increased shoot growth in both cultivars. In leaves, TDZ decreased the concentration of Ca and Mg in 'Gala' and of Mg in 'Fuji', but did not affect the chlorophyll content, leaf area, length, width, and dry mass per cm² regardless of cultivar. In fruits, the effect of TDZ varied according to the portion evaluated. Highest doses of TDZ decreased the concentration of Ca and K in 'Gala' and of K in 'Fuji' in the entire fruits (flesh + skin); in the skin, highest doses of TDZ reduced the levels of N, Ca, and Mg in both cultivars, in addition to the level of K in 'Fuji'.

Psychiatric patients' return for HIV/STI test results in mental health centers

OBJECTIVE: To assess individual and/or health service factors associated with patients returning for results of HIV or sexually transmitted infection (STI) tests in mental health centers. METHODS: Cross-sectional national multicenter study among 2,080 patients randomly selected from 26 Brazilian mental health centers in 2007. Multilevel logistic regression was used to assess the effect of individual (level 1) and mental health service characteristics (level 2) on receipt of test results. RESULTS: The rate of returning HIV/STI test results was 79.6%. Among health service characteristics examined, only condom distribution was associated with receiving HIV/STI test results, whereas several individual characteristics were independently associated including living in the same city where treatment centers are; being single; not having heard of AIDS; and not having been previously HIV tested. CONCLUSIONS: It is urgent to expand HIV/STI testing in health services which provide care for patients with potentially increased vulnerability to these conditions, and to promote better integration between mental health and health services.

Impact of long-stay beds on the performance of a tertiary hospital in emergencies

ABSTRACT OBJECTIVE To assess the impact of implementing long-stay beds for patients of low complexity and high dependency in small hospitals on the performance of an emergency referral tertiary hospital. METHODS For this longitudinal study, we identified hospitals in three municipalities of a regional department of health covered by tertiary care that supplied 10 long-stay beds each. Patients were transferred to hospitals in those municipalities based on a specific protocol. The outcome of transferred patients was obtained by daily monitoring. Confounding factors were adjusted by Cox logistic and semiparametric regression. RESULTS Between September 1, 2013 and September 30, 2014, 97 patients were transferred, 72.1% male, with a mean age of 60.5 years (SD = 1.9), for which 108 transfers were performed. Of these patients, 41.7% died, 33.3% were discharged, 15.7% returned to tertiary care, and only 9.3% tertiary remained hospitalized until the end of the analysis period. We estimated the Charlson comorbidity index – 0 (n = 28 [25.9%]), 1 (n = 31 [56.5%]) and ≥ 2 (n = 19 [17.5%]) – the only variable that increased the chance of death or return to the tertiary hospital (Odds Ratio = 2.4; 95%CI 1.3;4.4). The length of stay in long-stay beds was 4,253 patient days, which would represent 607 patients at the tertiary hospital, considering the average hospital stay of seven days. The tertiary hospital increased the number of patients treated in 50.0% for Intensive Care, 66.0% for Neurology and 9.3% in total. Patients stayed in long-stay beds mainly in the first 30 (50.0%) and 60 (75.0%) days. CONCLUSIONS Implementing long-stay beds increased the number of patients treated in tertiary care, both in general and in system bottleneck areas such as Neurology and Intensive Care. The Charlson index of comorbidity is associated with the chance of patient death or return to tertiary care, even when adjusted for possible confounding factors.

Some personal views on the control of schistosomiasis mansoni

Our views are based, on a recent study of a district of Uniao dos Palmares (Alagoas). Although being a very compact community (32 city blocks holding two thousand families), transmission is very uneven, the geometric mean egg counts in the various blocks ranging between extremes of 96 and 1920. (Results do not correlate with the availability of domestic water supply). We thus are led to conclude that: (a) transmission is primarily peridomestic, resulting from pollution of open ditches and other collections of water; (b) control of transmission can be done on a selective basis, requiring quite medest investments. Given the inefficacy of population-based chemotherapy, when used alone, the author insists that this alternative cannot any longer be overlooked. He also regrets the emphasis placed upon vaccine development; allegations that this would, at any rate, prevent severe morbidity can be dismissed, since-whatever the cause-morbidity due to schistosomiasis has been rapidly declining in Northeast Brazil.

Chagas disease: current epidemiological trends after the interruption of vectorial and transfusional transmission in the Southern Cone countries

Chagas disease, named after Carlos Chagas who first described it in 1909, exists only on the American Continent. It is caused by a parasite, Trypanosoma cruzi, transmitted to humans by blood-sucking triatomine bugs and by blood transfusion. Chagas disease has two successive phases, acute and chronic. The acute phase lasts 6 to 8 weeks. After several years of starting the chronic phase, 20% to 35% of the infected individuals, depending on the geographical area will develop irreversible lesions of the autonomous nervous system in the heart, esophagus, colon and the peripheral nervous system. Data on the prevalence and distribution of Chagas disease improved in quality during the 1980's as a result of the demographically representative cross-sectional studies carried out in countries where accurate information was not available. A group of experts met in Brasília in 1979 and devised standard protocols to carry out countrywide prevalence studies on human T. cruzi infection and triatomine house infestation. Thanks to a coordinated multi-country program in the Southern Cone countries the transmission of Chagas disease by vectors and by blood transfusion has been interrupted in Uruguay in1997, in Chile in 1999, and in 8 of the 12 endemic states of Brazil in 2000 and so the incidence of new infections by T. cruzi in the whole continent has decreased by 70%. Similar control multi-country initiatives have been launched in the Andean countries and in Central America and rapid progress has been recorded to ensure the interruption of the transmission of Chagas disease by 2005 as requested by a Resolution of the World Health Assembly approved in 1998. The cost-benefit analysis of the investments of the vector control program in Brazil indicate that there are savings of US$17 in medical care and disabilities for each dollar spent on prevention, showing that the program is a health investment with good return. Since the inception in 1979 of the Steering Committee on Chagas Disease of the Special Program for Research and Training in Tropical Diseases of the World Health Organization (TDR), the objective was set to promote and finance research aimed at the development of new methods and tools to control this disease. The well known research institutions in Latin America were the key elements of a world wide network of laboratories that received - on a competitive basis - financial support for projects in line with the priorities established. It is presented the time line of the different milestones that were answering successively and logically the outstanding scientific questions identified by the Scientific Working Group in 1978 and that influenced the development and industrial production of practical solutions for diagnosis of the infection and disease control.

New insights on the development of fungal vaccines: from immunity to recent challenges

Fungal infections are emerging as a major problem in part due to high mortality associated with systemic infections, especially in the case of immunocompromised patients. With the development of new treatments for diseases such as cancer and the acquired immune deficiency syndrome pandemic, the number of immunosuppressed patients has increased and, as a consequence, also the number of invasive fungal infections has increased. Several studies have proposed new strategies for the development of effective fungal vaccines. In addition, better understanding of how the immune system works against fungal pathogens has improved the further development of these new vaccination strategies. As a result, some fungal vaccines have advanced through clinical trials. However, there are still many challenges that prevent the clinical development of fungal vaccines that can efficiently immunise subjects at risk of developing invasive fungal infections. In this review, we will discuss these new vaccination strategies and the challenges that they present. In the future with proper investments, fungal vaccines may soon become a reality.

Rainfall erosivity and rainfall return period in the experimental watershed of Aracruz, in the coastal plain of Espirito Santo, Brazil

Knowledge on the factors influencing water erosion is fundamental for the choice of the best land use practices. Rainfall, expressed by rainfall erosivity, is one of the most important factors of water erosion. The objective of this study was to determine rainfall erosivity and the return period of rainfall in the Coastal Plains region, near Aracruz, a town in the state of Espírito Santo, Brazil, based on available data. Rainfall erosivity was calculated based on historic rainfall data, collected from January 1998 to July 2004 at 5 min intervals, by automatic weather stations of the Aracruz Cellulose S.A company. A linear regression with individual rainfall and erosivity data was fit to obtain an equation that allowed data extrapolation to calculate individual erosivity for a 30-year period. Based on this data the annual average rainfall erosivity in Aracruz was 8,536 MJ mm ha-1 h-1 yr-1. Of the total annual rainfall erosivity 85 % was observed in the most critical period October to March. Annual erosive rains accounted for 38 % of the events causing erosion, although the runoff volume represented 88 % of the total. The annual average rainfall erosivity return period was estimated to be 3.4 years.

Panorama de propriedade intelectual, transferência de tecnologia e inovação da química brasileira e a comparação com os países do BRIC

Based on Science, Technology & Innovation (ST&I) indicators, Brazil is a competitive and interesting country from the point of view of technological foreign investment. However, it is still incipient with regard to national investments, production of technological knowledge, inbound mobility of scientists and technology transfer to the productive sector. Among many other factors, global patent production is considered as an important indicator of innovation. Likewise, the balance between revenue and expenses obtained through royalties and licensing fees of technologies is also critical in mapping the diffusion and absorption of knowledge. The understanding of intellectual property and its strategic management brings a significant advantage to the economic and technological development of nations, especially in the field of chemistry, which greatly contributes to biotechnology, new materials and microelectronics - three fundamental areas for innovation in developed countries. Therefore, this article aims to map out competencies in chemistry in Brazil and evaluate science, technology and innovation indicators in the country, comparing this dynamic to the one of other BRIC members (Russia, India and China). Chemistry is the fourth biggest field of interest in Brazil based on the number of researchers registered at the governmental platform for researchers, Plataforma Lattes/CNPq, and is preceded by education, medicine and agronomy. The majority of research groups are registered in the area of materials, followed by macromolecules and polymers, pharmaceutical products and basic materials chemistry. These groups represent approximately 77% of research groups analyzed, therefore, indicating a tendency in the country. The analyses of patents in different sub-areas of chemistry reveal that non-residents file most deposits in the country, a probable reflection of the low internal intellectual property culture. Pharmaceutics and Fine Chemistry are prominent areas in the country, in line with the global trend. Among BRIC countries, China has the highest number of patents and of requests for protection in international offices. On the other hand, Brazil has the lowest number of chemical patents published at USPTO, EPO and JPO. An analysis of the transfer of technology data indicates an increase in this activity in various sub-areas of chemistry in the country. Despite the great efforts made by the country to consolidate its national innovation system, more needs to be done to put Brazil in a competitive position. In a globalized world dominated by large players, Brazil needs a lot of progress on ownership and generation of chemistry technologies to strengthen its national sovereignty. It is essential to strengthen chemical research at all levels, from elementary school to university, as an inexhaustible source of knowledge and technology that, when properly protected, may generate real public achievement and social return.

Dry months in the agricultural region of Ribeirão Preto, state of São Paulo-Brazil: an study based on the extreme value theory

The application of the Extreme Value Theory (EVT) to model the probability of occurrence of extreme low Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) values leads to an increase of the knowledge related to the occurrence of extreme dry months. This sort of analysis can be carried out by means of two approaches: the block maxima (BM; associated with the General Extreme Value distribution) and the peaks-over-threshold (POT; associated with the Generalized Pareto distribution). Each of these procedures has its own advantages and drawbacks. Thus, the main goal of this study is to compare the performance of BM and POT in characterizing the probability of occurrence of extreme dry SPI values obtained from the weather station of Ribeirão Preto-SP (1937-2012). According to the goodness-of-fit tests, both BM and POT can be used to assess the probability of occurrence of the aforementioned extreme dry SPI monthly values. However, the scalar measures of accuracy and the return level plots indicate that POT provides the best fit distribution. The study also indicated that the uncertainties in the parameters estimates of a probabilistic model should be taken into account when the probability associated with a severe/extreme dry event is under analysis.