Risk analysis of climate change on coffee nematodes and leaf miner in Brazil

The objective of this work was to assess the potential impact of climate change on the spatial distribution of coffee nematodes (races of Meloidogyne incognita) and leaf miner (Leucoptera coffeella), using a Geographic Information System. Assessment of the impacts of climate change on pest infestations and disease epidemics in crops is needed as a basis for revising management practices to minimize crop losses as climatic conditions shift. Future scenarios focused on the decades of the 2020's, 2050's, and 2080's (scenarios A2 and B2) were obtained from five General Circulation Models available on Data Distribution Centre from Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Geographic distribution maps were prepared using models to predict the number of generations of the nematodes and leaf miner. Maps obtained in scenario A2 allowed prediction of an increased infestation of the nematode and of the pest, due to greater number of generations per month, than occurred under the climatological normal from 1961-1990. The number of generations also increased in the B2 scenario, but was lower than in the A2 scenario for both organisms.

Computational modeling for irrigated agriculture planning. Part II: risk analysis

Techniques of evaluation of risks coming from inherent uncertainties to the agricultural activity should accompany planning studies. The risk analysis should be carried out by risk simulation using techniques as the Monte Carlo method. This study was carried out to develop a computer program so-called P-RISCO for the application of risky simulations on linear programming models, to apply to a case study, as well to test the results comparatively to the @RISK program. In the risk analysis it was observed that the average of the output variable total net present value, U, was considerably lower than the maximum U value obtained from the linear programming model. It was also verified that the enterprise will be front to expressive risk of shortage of water in the month of April, what doesn't happen for the cropping pattern obtained by the minimization of the irrigation requirement in the months of April in the four years. The scenario analysis indicated that the sale price of the passion fruit crop exercises expressive influence on the financial performance of the enterprise. In the comparative analysis it was verified the equivalence of P-RISCO and @RISK programs in the execution of the risk simulation for the considered scenario.

Risk factors associated with hantavirosis fatality: a regional analysis from a case-control study in Brazil

Introduction: In Brazil, hantavirus cardiopulmonary syndrome (HCPS) has a high lethality rate that varies by region. This study aimed to identify the risk factors associated with fatal hantavirosis. Methods: This study was a case-control study that included all laboratory confirmed cases of hantavirosis. The cases were stratified by the different Brazilian regions using data from the Notifiable Diseases Information System. “Cases” were patients who progressed to death, whereas “controls” were patients who were cured. The odds ratio (OR) and the adjusted OR were calculated. Results: Overall, 158 cases and 281 controls were included in this study. In the Midwest region, the cases were 60% less likely to present with flank pain, and the time between the beginning of symptoms and death was shorter than the time between the beginning of symptoms and a cure. In the Southeast region, the cases were 60% less likely to present with thrombocytopenia or reside in rural areas compared to those who progressed to a cure. Additionally, the cases sought medical assistance, notification and investigation more quickly than the controls. In the Southern region, the cases that died were 70% less likely to be male compared to the controls. Conclusions: HCPS manifests with nonspecific symptoms, and there are few published studies related to the condition, so determining a patient's therapeutic strategy is difficult. This study presents findings from different Brazilian regions and highlights the need for further investigations to improve comprehension about regional risk factors associated with hantavirosis and to reduce morbimortality.

Urinary tract infection in full-term newborn infants: risk factor analysis

OBJECTIVE: To analyze the correlation of risk factors to the occurrence of urinary tract infection in full-term newborn infants. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Retrospective study (1997) including full-term infants having a positive urine culture by bag specimen. Urine collection was based on: fever, weight loss > 10% of birth weight, nonspecific symptoms (feeding intolerance, failure to thrive, hypoactivity, debilitate suction, irritability), or renal and urinary tract malformations. In these cases, another urine culture by suprapubic bladder aspiration was collected to confirm the diagnosis. To compare and validate the risk factors in each group, the selected cases were divided into two groups: Group I - positive urine culture by bag specimen collection and negative urine culture by suprapubic aspiration, and Group II - positive urine culture by bag specimen collection and positive urine culture by suprapubic aspiration . RESULTS: Sixty one infants were studied, Group I, n = 42 (68.9%) and Group II, n = 19 (31.1%). The selected risk factors (associated infectious diseases, use of broad-spectrum antibiotics, renal and urinary tract malformations, mechanical ventilation, parenteral nutrition and intravascular catheter) were more frequent in Group II (p<0.05). Through relative risk analysis, risk factors were, in decreasing importance: parenteral nutrition, intravascular catheter, associated infectious diseases, use of broad-spectrum antibiotics, mechanical ventilation, and renal and urinary tract malformations. CONCLUSION: The results showed that parenteral nutrition, intravascular catheter, and associated infectious diseases contributed to increase the frequency of neonatal urinary tract infection, and in the presence of more than one risk factor, the occurrence of urinary tract infection rose up to 11 times.

Bacillus thuringiensis: fermentation process and risk assessment: a short review

Several factors make the local production of Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt) highly appropriate for pest control in developing nations. Bt can be cheaply produced on a wide variety of low cost, organic substrates. Local production results in considerable savings in hard currency which otherwise would be spent on importation of chemical and biological insecticides. The use of Bt in Brazil has been limited in comparison with chemical insecticides. Although Bt is imported, some Brazilian researchers have been working on its development and production. Fermentation processes (submerged and semi-solid) were applied, using by-products from agro-industries. As the semi-solid fermentation process demonstrated to be interesting for Bt endotoxins production, it could be adopted for small scale local production. Although promising results had been achieved, national products have not been registered due to the absence of a specific legislation for biological products. Effective actions are being developed in order to solve this gap. Regardless of the biocontrol agents being considered atoxic and harmless to the environment, information related to direct and indirect effects of microbials are still insufficient in many cases. The risk analysis of the use of microbial control agents is of upmost importance nowadays, and is also discussed.

Urinary tract infection in full-term newborn infants: value of urine culture by bag specimen collection

OBJETIVE: to evaluate the efficacy of urine culture by bag specimen for the detection of neonatal urinary tract infection in full-term newborn infants. Retrospective study (1997) including full-term newborn infants having a positive urine culture (>100,000 CFU/ml) by bag specimen collection. The urinary tract infection diagnosis was confirmed by positive urine culture (suprapubic bladder aspiration method). The select cases were divided into three groups, according to newborn infant age at the bag specimen collection: GI (< 48 h, n = 17), GII (48 h to 7 d, n = 35) and GIII (> 7 d, n = 9). Sixty one full-term newborn infants were studied (5.1 % of total infants). The diagnosis was confirmed on 19/61 (31.1 %) of full-term infants born alive. Distribution among the groups was: GI = 2/17 (11.8 %), GII = 10//35 (28.6 %), and GIII = 7/9 (77.7 %). The most relevant clinical symptoms were: fever (GI - 100 %, GII - 91.4 %) and weight loss (GI - 35.3 %, GII - 45.7 %). Urine culture results for specimens collected by suprapubic aspiration were: E. coli GI (100 %), GII (40 %) and GIII (28.6 %), E. faecalis GI (30%), Staphylococcus coagulase-negative GII (20 %) and GIII (42.8 %), and Staphylococcus aureus GII (10 %). Correlation between positive urine culture collection (bag specimen method) and urinary tract infection diagnosis, using relative risk analysis, produced the following results: GI=0.30 (CI95% 0.08-1.15), GII=0.51 (CI 95% 0.25-1.06) and GIII=3.31 (CI95% 1.8-6.06) The most frequent urinary tract infection clinical signs in the first week were fever and weight loss, while non-specific symptomatology occurred later. E. coli was most frequent infectious agent, although from the 7th day of life, staphylococcus was noted. The urine culture (bag specimen method) was effective in detecting urinary tract infection only after the 7th day of life.

CITRICULTURE ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL EVALUATION UNDER CONDITIONS OF UNCERTAINTY

ABSTRACT The citriculture consists in several environmental risks, as weather changes and pests, and also consists in considerable financial risk, mainly due to the period ofreturn on the initial investment. This study was motivated by the need to assess the risks of a business activity such as citriculture. Our objective was to build a stochastic simulation model to achieve the economic and financial analysis of an orange producer in the Midwest region of the state of Sao Paulo, under conditions of uncertainty. The parameters used were the Net Present Value (NPV), the Modified Internal Rate of Return(MIRR), and the Discounted Payback. To evaluate the risk conditions we built a probabilistic model of pseudorandom numbers generated with Monte Carlo method. The results showed that the activity analyzed provides a risk of 42.8% to reach a NPV negative; however, the yield assessed by MIRR was 7.7%, higher than the yield from the reapplication of the positive cash flows. The financial investment pays itself after the fourteenth year of activity.

Análise de risco de contaminação de águas superficiais e subterrâneas por pesticidas em municípios do Alto Paranaíba - MG

A preliminary analyses of the possible contamination of surface and groundwater by the active ingredients of the pesticide products used in the areas with intensive agricultural activities of Alto Paranaíba region, MG, Brazil, was carried out. The active ingredients and formulated products most used in the region were identified and their characteristics of environmental importance were presented. The EPA screening criteria, the groundwater ubiquity score (GUS) and the criteria proposed by Goss were used to evaluate which pesticides might contaminate the local waters. Among the active ingredients studied, several present risks to the local aquatic environment.

Incubation period of Hemileia vastatrix in coffee plants in Brazil simulated under climate change

Risk analysis of climate change on plant diseases has great importance for agriculture since it allows the evaluation of management strategies to minimize future damages. This work aimed to simulate future scenarios of coffee rust (Hemileia vastatrix) epidemics by elaborating geographic distribution maps using a model that estimates the pathogen incubation period and the output from three General Circulation Models (CSIRO-Mk3.0, INM-CM3.0, and MIROC3.2.medres). The climatological normal from 1961-1990 was compared with that of the decades 2020s, 2050s and 2080s using scenarios A2 and B1 from the IPCC. Maps were prepared with a spatial resolution of 0.5 × 0.5 degrees of latitude and longitude for ten producing states in Brazil. The climate variables used were maximum and minimum monthly temperatures. The maps obtained in scenario A2 showed a tendency towards a reduction in the incubation period when future scenarios are compared with the climatological normal from 1961-1990. A reduction in the period was also observed in scenario B1, although smaller than that in scenario A2.

Fuzzy expert system in the prediction of neonatal resuscitation

In view of the importance of anticipating the occurrence of critical situations in medicine, we propose the use of a fuzzy expert system to predict the need for advanced neonatal resuscitation efforts in the delivery room. This system relates the maternal medical, obstetric and neonatal characteristics to the clinical conditions of the newborn, providing a risk measurement of need of advanced neonatal resuscitation measures. It is structured as a fuzzy composition developed on the basis of the subjective perception of danger of nine neonatologists facing 61 antenatal and intrapartum clinical situations which provide a degree of association with the risk of occurrence of perinatal asphyxia. The resulting relational matrix describes the association between clinical factors and risk of perinatal asphyxia. Analyzing the inputs of the presence or absence of all 61 clinical factors, the system returns the rate of risk of perinatal asphyxia as output. A prospectively collected series of 304 cases of perinatal care was analyzed to ascertain system performance. The fuzzy expert system presented a sensitivity of 76.5% and specificity of 94.8% in the identification of the need for advanced neonatal resuscitation measures, considering a cut-off value of 5 on a scale ranging from 0 to 10. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.93. The identification of risk situations plays an important role in the planning of health care. These preliminary results encourage us to develop further studies and to refine this model, which is intended to implement an auxiliary system able to help health care staff to make decisions in perinatal care.

Variations in the Prevalence of Risk Factors for Coronary Artery Disease in Rio Grande do Sul-Brazil: A Comparative Analysis between 2002 and 2014

Abstract Background: Due to the importance of coronary artery disease (CAD), continuous investigation of the risk factors (RFs) is needed. Objective: To evaluate the prevalence of RFs for CAD in cities in Rio Grande do Sul State, and compare it with that reported in a similar study conducted in the same cities in 2002. Methods: Cross-sectional study on 1,056 healthy adults, investigating the prevalence and absolute and relative frequencies of the following RFs for CAD: obesity, systemic arterial hypertension (SAH), dyslipidemias, smoking, sedentary lifestyle, diabetes mellitus, and family history, as well as age and sex. Data was collected in 19 cities, host of the Offices of the Regional Coordinators of Health, as in the 2002 study. Results: Twenty-six percent of the sample consisted of older adults and 57% were women. The prevalence of sedentary lifestyle was 44%, history family 50%, smoking 23%, overweight/obesity 68%, dyslipidemia (high cholesterol levels) 43%, SAH 40%, and diabetes 11%. When compared to the 2002 study, the prevalence of active smoking and sedentary behavior decreased, whereas the prevalence of hypertension, dyslipidemia and obesity increased. Obesity is the most prevalent RF in women, and SAH the most prevalent in men. Conclusions: The prevalence of RFs for CAD in Rio Grande do Sul State remains high. Hypertension, obesity and dyslipidemia are still prevalent and require major prevention programs. Smoking and physical inactivity have decreased in the state, suggesting the efficacy of related campaigns.

Economic analysis of surgical treatment of hip fracture in older adults

OBJECTIVE To analyze the incremental cost-utility ratio for the surgical treatment of hip fracture in older patients.METHODS This was a retrospective cohort study of a systematic sample of patients who underwent surgery for hip fracture at a central hospital of a macro-region in the state of Minas Gerais, Southeastern Brazil between January 1, 2009 and December 31, 2011. A decision tree creation was analyzed considering the direct medical costs. The study followed the healthcare provider’s perspective and had a one-year time horizon. Effectiveness was measured by the time elapsed between trauma and surgery after dividing the patients into early and late surgery groups. The utility was obtained in a cross-sectional and indirect manner using the EuroQOL 5 Dimensions generic questionnaire transformed into cardinal numbers using the national regulations established by the Center for the Development and Regional Planning of the State of Minas Gerais. The sample included 110 patients, 27 of whom were allocated in the early surgery group and 83 in the late surgery group. The groups were stratified by age, gender, type of fracture, type of surgery, and anesthetic risk.RESULTS The direct medical cost presented a statistically significant increase among patients in the late surgery group (p < 0.005), mainly because of ward costs (p < 0.001). In-hospital mortality was higher in the late surgery group (7.4% versus 16.9%). The decision tree demonstrated the dominance of the early surgery strategy over the late surgery strategy: R$9,854.34 (USD4,387.17) versus R$26,754.56 (USD11,911.03) per quality-adjusted life year. The sensitivity test with extreme values proved the robustness of the results.CONCLUSIONS After controlling for confounding variables, the strategy of early surgery for hip fracture in the older adults was proven to be dominant, because it presented a lower cost and better results than late surgery.

Anti-HCV related to HCV PCR and risk factors analysis in a blood donor population of Central Brazil

Data concerning HCV infection in Central Brazil are rare. Upon testing 2,350 voluntary blood donors from this region, we found anti-HCV prevalence rates of 2.2% by a second generation ELISA and 1.4% after confirmation by a line immunoassay. Antibodies against core, NS4, and NS5 antigens of HCV were detected in 81.8%, 72.7%, and 57.5%, respectively, of the positive samples in the line immunoassay. HCV viremia was present in 76.6% of the anti-HCV-positive blood donors. A relation was observed between PCR positivity and serum reactivity in recognizing different HCV antigens in the line immunoassay. The majority of the positive donors had history of previous parenteral exposure. While the combination of ALT>50 IU/l and anti-HBc positivity do not appear to be good surrogate markers for HCV infection, the use of both ALT anti-HCV tests is indicated in the screening of Brazilian blood donors.

Prevalence of Chagas disease in blood donors at the Uberaba Regional Blood Center, Brazil, from 1995 to 2009

INTRODUCTION: A retrospective study was conducted to assess the occurrence of blood donations that were ineligible due to Chagas disease infection from 1995 to 2009 at the Uberaba Regional Blood Center (HRU), Brazil, verify the tendency of this ineligibility, and describe the epidemiologic profile of the donors. METHODS: Retrospective studies of serological ineligibility due to Chagas disease, statistical analysis by means of the chi-square test and odds ratio, study of the tendencies using a dispersion graph and the linear correlation coefficient (r) were performed. RESULTS: In the period under study, a 0.2% serum prevalence of ineligibility due to Chagas disease was found, with a significant drop in ineligible donations from 2001 to 2009. Among the serum positive-donors, there was a significant predominance among those aged 30 years or above and non-single individuals. CONCLUSIONS: The results show a rate of occurrence that is lower than that described in literature, as well as a progressive drop during the 15 years under assessment. Such results are a consequence of systematic combat of the vector since the 70s and the progressive and consistent increase of returning donors, resulting in a drop of the contamination risk factor by means of blood transfusion and in the improvement of the quality of hemotherapy practices in the HRU.

The drought of the century in the Amazon Basin: an analysis of the regional variation of rainfall in South America in 1926

The most severe drought in tropical South America during the 20th century occurred in 1926. This extreme El Nino year is further documented anecdotally, in an update of the river stage observations at Manaus, and in annual rainfall records. The annual rainfall anomaly is an east-west dipole over tropical South America, with drought to the west over the Amazon basin whose discharge is documented at Manaus, and with a surplus to the east and including the Nordeste region of Brazil. Speculations about a role for aerosol in aggravating the drought are discussed.