The influence of the conservation status and changes in the rainfall regime on forest-savanna mosaic dynamics in Northern Brazilian Amazonia

Coupled carbon/climate models are predicting changes in Amazon carbon and water cycles for the near future, with conversion of forest into savanna-like vegetation. However, empirical data to support these models are still scarce for Amazon. Facing this scenario, we investigated whether conservation status and changes in rainfall regime have influenced the forest-savanna mosaic over 20 years, from 1986 to 2006, in a transitional area in Northern Amazonia. By applying a spectral linear mixture model to a Landsat-5-TM time series, we identified protected savanna enclaves within a strictly protected nature reserve (Maracá Ecological Station - MES) and non-protected forest islands at its outskirts and compared their areas among 1986/1994/2006. The protected savanna enclaves decreased 26% in the 20-years period at an average rate of 0.131 ha year-1, with a greater reduction rate observed during times of higher precipitation, whereas the non-protected forest islands remained stable throughout the period of study, balancing the encroachment of forests into the savanna during humid periods and savannization during reduced rainfall periods. Thus, keeping favorable climate conditions, the MES conservation status would continue to favor the forest encroachment upon savanna, while the non-protected outskirt areas would remain resilient to disturbance regimes. However, if the increases in the frequency of dry periods predicted by climate models for this region are confirmed, future changes in extension and directions of forest limits will be affected, disrupting ecological services as carbon storage and the maintenance of local biodiversity.

Finance-Led Growth Regime no Brasil: estatuto teórico, evidências empíricas e consequências macroeconômicas

This paper analyzes the Brazilian growth pattern during the post-liberalization period, emphasizing the structural links between finance and productive capital accumulation. The results indicate a finance-led growth regime in the period 2004-2008, under a very specific financialization process. The first part is a survey of the international literature, which defines the financialization concept and its relevance for understanding Brazilian economic problems. The next part provides a historical overview on the structural changes that made possible the development of financial-led regimes. The paper also applies an empirical analysis of some selected Brazilian macroeconomic indicators.

Regime cambial e mudança estrutural na indústria de transformação brasileira: evidências para o período (1994-2008)

Exchange rate regime and structural changes in the Brazilian manufacturing industry. This article proposes an analysis of the relationship between exchange rate regime and evolution of the Brazilian manufacturing industry during the period 1980-2008. Its main purpose is to detect the direction of the structural changes imposed by the new form of international insertion consolidated throughout the 1990s. The work also provides new empirical evidence regarding the assumptions of deindustrialization and "Dutch disease", which mark the current debate on the effects of the appreciation of real exchange rate in the Brazilian economy.

A Rodada Doha, as mudanças no regime do comércio internacional e a política comercial brasileira

Este trabalho tem como objetivo discutir os atuais desafios do multilateralismo tradicional no comércio, visíveis nos impasses da Rodada Doha, diante das novas realidades do comércio internacional globalizado, caracterizado pela dispersão e fragmentação da produção sob a lógica das cadeias de valor globais (CVG). O artigo discute a forma em que essas transformações estão desafiando pressupostos tradicionais do sistema multilateral de comércio e as negociações da Rodada Doha. Tomando o caso do Brasil como exemplo, o artigo argumenta que o descompasso entre a agenda negociadora e as novas realidades do comércio internacional reside nos próprios países-membros da OMC que, em sua maioria, ainda não pautam suas políticas comerciais e suas estratégias de inserção internacional por essas novas dinâmicas do comércio internacional. Por fim, o trabalho mostra que a política comercial brasileira durante a última década esteve desalinhada com essa nova realidade ao dar demasiada ênfase às formas tradicionais de negociação comercial, deixando de considerar as modificações essenciais ocorridas nos padrões de comércio na esteira do processo de globalização.

Changes in the ways of life of farmers in the northwest of Portugal after 1980

ABSTRACT This study analyzes the changes from 1980s in the lifestyles of families of pluriactive and exclusively agricultural farmers in the northwest of Portugal caused by the income arising from the migration of at least one member of the family to another country in the European Union and the narrowing of the labor and consumer markets among the villages, towns and cities. The theoretical framework used to analyze the changes in the way of life of the pluriactive farmers was based on Giddens' theory of structuration, which denies both the absolute determinism of the structure on the subject and the freedom of unrestrained action of these same subjects. The study was carried out with the application of a survey to 78 farmers, divided into "pluriactive" and "exclusively agricultural" farmers. The findings pointed out to a greater aquisition of modes of urban life by pluriactive farmers compared with the exclusively agricultural farmers and showed a generational bias in this process of acculturation.

Desmistificação do regime contábil de competência

Este artigo apresenta o regime de competência de forma simples e objetiva, e discute como pode ser aplicado às organizações públicas no Brasil. Para tanto, usa a experiência do governo do estado de Minas Gerais no processo de preparação para a adoção do regime de competência puro, que desde 2001 estuda a possibilidade de adoção do regime. Esse processo foi acelerado em 2009 pela iminência de convergência às normas internacionais de contabilidade para o setor público, demandada pela Secretaria do Tesouro Nacional e pelo Conselho Federal de Contabilidade. A análise apresenta os incentivos à iniciativa da adoção do regime, mesmo antes da exigência legal, e os potenciais impactos de tal adoção no processo decisório. O processo de reforma administrativa no caso de Minas Gerais, incentivado primariamente pela necessidade de saneamento fiscal, levou à adoção do conceito de contratualização, o que passou a demandar informação de desempenho. Apesar dos benefícios em potencial do regime de competência para decisão e accountability, o Estado necessitará enfrentar questões como capacitação, adequação de sistemas e incertezas quanto aos parâmetros da Lei de Responsabilidade Fiscal

A dinâmica demográfica e a sustentabilidade do regime geral de previdência social brasileiro

Este trabalho tem como objetivo estudar os efeitos da dinâmica demográfica na sustentabilidade do Regime Geral de Previdência Social (RGPS), a partir das mudanças observadas na estrutura etária da população brasileira e na estrutura etária dos contribuintes e beneficiários do RGPS. Sobre os fatores relacionados com a dinâmica demográfica, os resultados mostram a tendência de queda do número de pessoas mais jovens e do aumento do número de pessoas mais velhas, evidenciando modificação da razão entre as faixas etárias. Com relação às contas previdenciárias, verificou-se que, em 2011, havia menos de 5% de possibilidade de o resultado previdenciário apresentar-se equilibrado, e que no período de 2012 a 2030 há evidências de que a dinâmica demográfica aumentará em até cinco vezes a necessidade de financiamento observada em 2003.

Nobreza e riqueza no Antigo Regime ibérico setecentista

Este artigo analisa a ideia de nobreza na península e ultramar ibéricos. Recorrendo a balanço historiográfico, ele analisa as estratégias de ascensão de vários grupos sociais, mas particularmente dos comerciantes e mineiros que recorriam a seu patrimônio para servir às monarquias, comprar títulos de nobreza e hábitos das ordens militares. O estudo enfatiza as particularidades regionais, mas destaca como a riqueza tornou-se um potente motor para o enobrecimento de plebeus nas sociedades do Antigo Regime setecentistas.

Brazil is getting older: demographic changes and epidemiological challenges

Population ageing is currently a phenomenon not only in developed countries but also in third world countries. In this paper the features of a population's ageing and the process of epidemiological transition are discussed along with the worldwide changes in age-structure. Population statistics in Brazil and the characteristics of the elderly population are presented and analysed in the light of recent changes. The Brazilian elderly population is also discussed, particularly the issues relating to the social cost of the aged population, its urban and rural distribution, the elderly by sex, marital status and level of schooling, and emphasis is given to the imbalance of the sexes and the consequences of it for women.

Health financing changes in the context of health care decentralization: the case of three Latin American countries

OBJECTIVE: The results of an evaluative longitudinal study, which identified the effects of health care decentralization on health financing in Mexico, Nicaragua and Peru are presented in this article. METHODS: The methodology had two main phases. In the first, secondary sources of data and documents were analyzed with the following variables: type of decentralization implemented, source of financing, funds for financing, providers, final use of resources, mechanisms for resource allocation. In the second phase, primary data were collected by a survey of key personnel in the health sector. RESULTS: Results of the comparative analysis are presented, showing the changes implemented in the three countries, as well as the strengths and weaknesses of each country in matters of financing and decentralization. CONCLUSIONS: The main financing changes implemented and quantitative trends with respect to the five financing indicators are presented as a methodological tool to implement corrections and adjustments in health financing.

Níveis de hemoglobina, aleitamento materno e regime alimentar no primeiro ano de vida

OBJETIVO: Identificar a relação entre os níveis de hemoglobina e o consumo de leite materno, alimentos complementares e líquidos não nutritivos no primeiro ano de vida. MÉTODOS: Estudo transversal envolvendo 553 crianças menores de 12 meses de vida, que freqüentavam os serviços públicos de saúde. A concentração de hemoglobina foi avaliada pelo método cianometahemoglobina, usando-se o sistema HemoCue. Utilizou-se a técnica da regressão linear múltipla para avaliar as associações de interesse. RESULTADOS: Níveis de hemoglobina compatíveis com a anemia foram identificados em 62,8% das crianças investigadas, com maior ocorrência naquelas de seis a 12 meses de idade (72,6%). O aleitamento materno exclusivo nos primeiros seis meses de vida assegurou os mais elevados níveis de hemoglobina. Os demais regimes alimentares declinaram de maneira diferenciada os níveis de hemoglobina, que se tornaram compatíveis com a anemia quando o regime de aleitamento artificial foi adotado (p=0,009). O consumo de chá e/ou água declinou em 0,76 g/dl (p<0,001) os níveis de hemoglobina dos menores de seis meses de idade. Para as crianças de seis a 12 meses, os níveis de hemoglobina variaram significante e positivamente com o consumo de açúcar (p=0,017) e feijão (p=0,018) e negativamente com o consumo de fruta (p<0,001). CONCLUSÕES: O aleitamento materno exclusivo até os seis meses de idade e a manutenção do leite materno a partir dessa idade, associado aos alimentos complementares quali e quantitativamente adequados, podem contribuir para o aumento dos níveis da hemoglobina no primeiro ano de vida.

Economic burden of expected epidemiological changes in diseases related to tobacco, Mexico

OBJECTIVE: To determine health care costs and economic burden of epidemiological changes in diseases related to tobacco consumption. METHODS: A time-series analysis in Mexico (1994-2005) was carried out on seven health interventions: chronic obstructive pulmonary diseases, lung cancer with and without surgical intervention, asthma in smokers and non-smokers, full treatment course with nicotine gum, and full treatment course with nicotine patch. According with Box-Jenkins methodology, probabilistic models were developed to forecast the expected changes in the epidemiologic profile and the expected changes in health care services required for selected interventions. Health care costs were estimated following the instrumentation methods and validated with consensus technique. RESULTS: A comparison of the economic impact in 2006 vs. 2008 showed 20-90% increase in expected cases depending on the disease (p<0.05), and 25-93% increase in financial requirements (p<0.01). The study data suggest that changes in the demand for health services for patients with respiratory diseases related to tobacco consumption will continue showing an increasing trend. CONCLUSIONS: In economic terms, the growing number of cases expected during the study period indicates a process of internal competition and adds an element of intrinsic competition in the management of preventive and curative interventions. The study results support the assumption that if preventive programs remain unchanged, the increasing demands for curative health care may cause great financial and management challenges to the health care system of middle-income countries like Mexico.

Body mass index for predicting hyperglycemia and serum lipid changes in Brazilian adolescents

OBJECTIVE: To determine the best cut-offs of body mass index for identifying alterations of blood lipids and glucose in adolescents. METHODS: A probabilistic sample including 577 adolescent students aged 12-19 years in 2003 (210 males and 367 females) from state public schools in the city of Niterói, Southeastern Brazil, was studied. The Receiver Operating Characteristic curve was used to identify the best age-adjusted BMI cut-off for predicting high levels of serum total cholesterol (>150mg/dL), LDL-C (>100mg/dL), serum triglycerides (>100mg/dL), plasma glucose (>100mg/dL) and low levels of HDL-C (< 45mg/dL). Four references were used to calculate sensitivity and specificity of BMI cut-offs: one Brazilian, one international and two American. RESULTS: The most prevalent metabolic alterations (>50%) were: high total cholesterol and low HDL-C. BMI predicted high levels of triglycerides in males, high LDL-C in females, and high total cholesterol and the occurrence of three or more metabolic alterations in both males and females (areas under the curve range: 0.59 to 0.67), with low sensitivity (57%-66%) and low specificity (58%-66%). The best BMI cut-offs for this sample (20.3 kg/m² to 21.0 kg/m²) were lower than those proposed in the references studied. CONCLUSIONS: Although BMI values lower than the International cut-offs were better predictor of some metabolic abnormalities in Brazilian adolescents, overall BMI is not a good predictor of these abnormalities in this population.