Reelection incentives and political budget cycle: evidence from Brazil

This article tests the presence of political budget cycle (PBC) in municipal elections in Brazil and checks whether mayors who adopt such policy have greater probability of reelection. Based on fiscal and electoral data of 5,406 Brazilian municipalities and applying the difference-in-differences econometric method as well as logistic regressions, the results provide some evidence of PBC in Brazil, although its magnitude and consistency varies depending on the years used as electoral and non-electoral years. On average, reelectable mayors spend close to 3% more in election years than nonreelectables. Moreover, reelectables who do run for reelection present a variation in spending which is close to 5% superior to that of non-reelectables and non-runners. Additionally, the results suggest that mayors who increase public spending during electoral periods have greater chances of being reelected, as long as such spending is done within deficit limits acceptable by voters.

O que é que o reeleito tem? O retorno: o esboço de uma teoria da reeleição no Brasil

This article compares the determinants of electoral success in two consecutive Brazilian legislative elections, 1998 and 2002. There is a clear difference between both periods that renders the comparison especially interesting. In 1998 the incumbent president was running for reelection whereas in 2002 it was an open seat contest. We hypothesize that in 1998 the proximity of the Federal Deputy with the president and the allocation of federal monies controlled by the Executive Branch played a more significant role in affecting reelection success than in 2002. Hence, if the President is himself running for reelection is an important intervening contextual variable in understanding reelection success of Federal Deputies.

O efeito da intenção de reeleição sobre gastos em saúde: uma análise com base no modelo de reputação política

The effect of reelection intention on public health expenditures: An analysis based on reputation models. The political model of reputational-building argues that if the incumbent politician aspires to be reassigned, he/she must act in the voters' interest to obtain their approval and consequently their votes. Considering that voters are sensitive to public health expenditures, we check how reputational incentives shift municipal spending patterns in electoral years. The empirical tests for 3.004 Brazilian municipalities show an increase of health expenditures in those cities in which incumbents are trying to maintain their jobs. In addition, we find an increment in health expenditures where mayors forfeit their chance of being reelected to the benefit of a party mate.