118 resultados para probability of occurrence
em Scielo Saúde Pública - SP
Resumo:
In this paper we present a study of members of 265 nuclear families, aged six or more. This study is based of family heredograms, and takes into account the clinical form ofschistosomiasis observed before treatment with oxamniquine. The probability of occurrence of two or more cases ofhepatosplenomegaly is low, notwithstanding the fact that it was observed in 38 families. Even less frequent is the occurrence of three or more cases observed in 17 families (P=0.002). The concentration of the hepatosplenic form was higher among siblings than it was among mothers and children, or fathers and children. It was found to be not significant between husband (father) and wife (mother). These observations reinforce the evidence for the presence of a genetic component in susceptibility to the hepatosplenic form of the disease. In cases in which the mother was hepatosplenic there was a higher incidence of hepatosplenic children; the relative risk was a least five times higher than in those in which the father was the affected member (the maternal effect). In cases where both members were affected by the hepatointestinal form, the risk to the filial generation was similar to that of the population in general. Thus, in the process towards severe forms of Schistosomiasis mansoni, pre and post natal factors might be involved.
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INTRODUCTION: The work was conducted to study phlebotomine fauna (Diptera: Psychodidae) and aspects of American cutaneous leishmaniasis transmission in a forested area where Leishmania (Leishmania) amazonensis occurs, situated in the municipality of Bela Vista, State of Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil. METHODS: The captures were conducted with modified Disney traps, using hamster (Mesocricetus auratus) as bait, from May 2004 to January 2006. RESULTS: Ten species of phlebotomine sandflies were captured: Brumptomyia avellari, Brumptomyia brumpti, Bichromomyia flaviscutellata, Evandromyia bourrouli, Evandromyia lenti, Lutzomyia longipalpis, Psathyromyia campograndensis, Psathyromyia punctigeniculata, Psathyromyia shannoni and Sciopemyia sordellii. The two predominant species were Ev bourrouli (57.3%) and Bi flaviscutellata (41.4%), present at all sampling sites. Two of the 36 hamsters used as bait presented natural infection with Leishmania. The parasite was identified as Leishmania (Leishmania) amazonensis. CONCLUSIONS: Analysis of the results revealed the efficiency of Disney traps for capturing Bichromomyia flaviscutellata and the simultaneous presence of both vector and the Leishmania species transmitted by the same can be considered a predictive factor of the occurrence of leishmaniasis outbreaks for the human population that occupies the location.
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OBJECTIVE: To report the pattern of occurrence, diagnosis, and treatment of hypertension in a female nursing staff of an emergency hospital. METHODS: We carried out a cross-sectional study that included interviews and blood pressure measurements of 494 nursing professionals at an emergency hospital in the city of Salvador, in the state of Bahia, Brazil. We considered hypertensive all individual with blood pressure > or = 140/90 mmHg or normal pressure if on regular treatment. RESULTS: We found a prevalence of hypertension of 36.4%. Only 18.3% of the individuals ignored their hypertensive condition, and 64.2% admitted not being having regular treatment. Of those individuals who were having treatment, 69.4% had elevated blood pressure on examination. The major reasons for not being on treatment was the occasional elevation of blood pressure (22.2%) and medical counseling (20.0%). CONCLUSION: The results point to the need to introduce hypertension control measures in this occupational group, because of the magnitude of the disease and the potential impact on diffusion of knowledge and measures to control hypertension.
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An indirect estimate of consumable food and probability of acquiring food in a blowfly species, Chrysomya putoria, is presented. This alternative procedure combines three distinct models to estimate consumable food in the context of the exploitative competition experienced by immature individuals in blowfly populations. The relevant parameters are derived from data for pupal weight and survival and estimates of density-independent larval mortality in twenty different larval densities. As part of this procedure, the probability of acquiring food per unit of time and the time taken to exhaust the food supply are also calculated. The procedure employed here may be valuable for estimations in insects whose immature stages develop inside the food substrate, where it is difficult to partial out confounding effects such as separation of faeces. This procedure also has the advantage of taking into account the population dynamics of immatures living under crowded conditions, which are particularly characteristic of blowflies and other insects as well.
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Beetles of the species Chauliognathus fallax Germar 1824 are polymorphic for elytron colouration with six morphs distinguished on the basis of black pigmentation on a yellow background. We investigated samples of C. fallax taken in eight consecutive weeks aiming to determine the frequency of the morphs which were grouped, for statistical analysis, into three classes according to elytra pigmentation as well as the possible occurrence of assortative mating. Our results showed a variation in the frequency of the classes throughout the season, both in males and females, with the maximum frequency of each class at the fourth and fifth week. The three classes (A, B, C) showed the same pattern of variation, and class B was always the more frequent. To test randomness of matings two approaches were taken: in the first, we compared the frequency of each class in copulating and non-copulating insects. In the second, the frequency of each class in the whole sample was taken as the probability of occurrence of the respective class; then, using the criterion of the probability of independent events we calculated the expected proportion of copulating insects for each pair of events. Both methods gave non-significant differences, suggesting that the matings were random.
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Knowledge on the factors influencing water erosion is fundamental for the choice of the best land use practices. Rainfall, expressed by rainfall erosivity, is one of the most important factors of water erosion. The objective of this study was to determine rainfall erosivity and the return period of rainfall in the Coastal Plains region, near Aracruz, a town in the state of Espírito Santo, Brazil, based on available data. Rainfall erosivity was calculated based on historic rainfall data, collected from January 1998 to July 2004 at 5 min intervals, by automatic weather stations of the Aracruz Cellulose S.A company. A linear regression with individual rainfall and erosivity data was fit to obtain an equation that allowed data extrapolation to calculate individual erosivity for a 30-year period. Based on this data the annual average rainfall erosivity in Aracruz was 8,536 MJ mm ha-1 h-1 yr-1. Of the total annual rainfall erosivity 85 % was observed in the most critical period October to March. Annual erosive rains accounted for 38 % of the events causing erosion, although the runoff volume represented 88 % of the total. The annual average rainfall erosivity return period was estimated to be 3.4 years.
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The erosive capacity of rainfall can be expressed by an index and knowing it allows recommendation of soil management and conservation practices to reduce water erosion. The objective of this study was to calculate various indices of rainfall erosivity in Lages, Santa Catarina, Brazil, identify the best one, and discover its temporal distribution. The study was conducted at the Center of Agricultural and Veterinary Sciences, Lages, Santa Catarina, using daily rainfall charts from 1989 to 2012. Using the computer program Chuveros , 107 erosivity indices were obtained, which were based on maximum intensity in 5, 10, 15, 20, 25, 30, 35, 40, 45, 50, 55, 60, 70, 80, 90, 100, 110, 120, 135, 150, 165, 180, 210, and 240 min of duration and on the combination of these intensities with the kinetic energy obtained by the equations of Brown & Foster, Wagner & Massambani, and Wischmeier & Smith. The indices of the time period from 1993 to 2012 were correlated with the respective soil losses from the standard plot of the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) in order to select the erosivity index for the region. Erosive rainfall accounted for 83 % of the mean annual total volume of 1,533 mm. The erosivity index (R factor) of rainfall recommended for Lages is the EI30, whose mean annual value is 5,033 MJ mm ha-1 h-1, and of this value, 66 % occurs from September to February. Mean annual erosivity has a return period estimated at two years with a 50 % probability of occurrence.
Resumo:
The application of the Extreme Value Theory (EVT) to model the probability of occurrence of extreme low Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) values leads to an increase of the knowledge related to the occurrence of extreme dry months. This sort of analysis can be carried out by means of two approaches: the block maxima (BM; associated with the General Extreme Value distribution) and the peaks-over-threshold (POT; associated with the Generalized Pareto distribution). Each of these procedures has its own advantages and drawbacks. Thus, the main goal of this study is to compare the performance of BM and POT in characterizing the probability of occurrence of extreme dry SPI values obtained from the weather station of Ribeirão Preto-SP (1937-2012). According to the goodness-of-fit tests, both BM and POT can be used to assess the probability of occurrence of the aforementioned extreme dry SPI monthly values. However, the scalar measures of accuracy and the return level plots indicate that POT provides the best fit distribution. The study also indicated that the uncertainties in the parameters estimates of a probabilistic model should be taken into account when the probability associated with a severe/extreme dry event is under analysis.
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ABSTRACTChanges in the frequency of occurrence of extreme weather events have been pointed out as a likely impact of global warming. In this context, this study aimed to detect climate change in series of extreme minimum and maximum air temperature of Pelotas, State of Rio Grande do Sul, (1896 - 2011) and its influence on the probability of occurrence of these variables. We used the general extreme value distribution (GEV) in its stationary and non-stationary forms. In the latter case, GEV parameters are variable over time. On the basis of goodness-of-fit tests and of the maximum likelihood method, the GEV model in which the location parameter increases over time presents the best fit of the daily minimum air temperature series. Such result describes a significant increase in the mean values of this variable, which indicates a potential reduction in the frequency of frosts. The daily maximum air temperature series is also described by a non-stationary model, whose location parameter decreases over time, and the scale parameter related to sample variance rises between the beginning and end of the series. This result indicates a drop in the mean of daily maximum air temperature values and increased dispersion of the sample data.
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ABSTRACT Considering the importance of the substrate to bedding in the poultry industry in Brazil, and the enormous pressure on environmental management as to the correct use and management of the waste generated by the production sector, this study aimed to analyze the effect of reuses of two types of litter on sanitary qualities and productive performance of broilers. The study was conducted with litter from 32 different broiler houses, two types of substrates and four cycles of reuses. The litter sanitary quality was verified by the identification of the presence of Escherichia coli and Salmonellaspp. and the incidence of footpad dermatitis. It was observed that the coffee hulls litter presented a reduction of 28.61 percentage points in the probability of occurrence of Salmonella spp when compared to the wood shavings litter, nevertheless, no statistical difference was observed on bacterial occurrence with Salmonella spp. for litter of different types or numbers of reutilization. The presence of Escherichia coli was detected in litter of all cycles, for both types of substrate. The occurrence of footpad lesions was detected for both types of litter, and was influenced by the number of reutilization cycles of the litter. The degree of incidence was detected only for the litter with coffee hull in which there was an increase of 30% between the first and second reuse from which tended to stabilize.
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Simple reaction time (SRT) in response to visual stimuli can be influenced by many stimulus features. The speed and accuracy with which observers respond to a visual stimulus may be improved by prior knowledge about the stimulus location, which can be obtained by manipulating the spatial probability of the stimulus. However, when higher spatial probability is achieved by holding constant the stimulus location throughout successive trials, the resulting improvement in performance can also be due to local sensory facilitation caused by the recurrent spatial location of a visual target (position priming). The main objective of the present investigation was to quantitatively evaluate the modulation of SRT by the spatial probability structure of a visual stimulus. In two experiments the volunteers had to respond as quickly as possible to the visual target presented on a computer screen by pressing an optic key with the index finger of the dominant hand. Experiment 1 (N = 14) investigated how SRT changed as a function of both the different levels of spatial probability and the subject's explicit knowledge about the precise probability structure of visual stimulation. We found a gradual decrease in SRT with increasing spatial probability of a visual target regardless of the observer's previous knowledge concerning the spatial probability of the stimulus. Error rates, below 2%, were independent of the spatial probability structure of the visual stimulus, suggesting the absence of a speed-accuracy trade-off. Experiment 2 (N = 12) examined whether changes in SRT in response to a spatially recurrent visual target might be accounted for simply by sensory and temporally local facilitation. The findings indicated that the decrease in SRT brought about by a spatially recurrent target was associated with its spatial predictability, and could not be accounted for solely in terms of sensory priming.
Resumo:
INTRODUCTION: Studies on Chagas disease deal with the perspective of its occurrence in the Amazon region, which is directly correlated to the population growth and the spread of the bug biotope. The state of Rondônia has an immense source of vectors (Triatomine) and reservoirs of Trypanosoma cruzi. Environmental changes brought forth by the deforestation in the region may cause vector behavior changes and bring these vectors to a closer contact with humans, increasing the probability of vector infection. METHODS: This study was carried out to check the occurrence of Chagas disease in the municipality of Monte Negro, Rondônia, Brazil, based on a random sampling of the farms and people wherein blood collection from the population and capturing triatomines were done. The blood samples were submitted to serologic tests to detect antibodies of the IgG class against T. cruzi. The triatomines that were collected had their digestive tract checked for the presence of trypanosomatidae with morphology resembling that of the T. cruzi. RESULTS: The population examined was mostly from other states. From the 322 bugs examined on the microscope, 50% showed parasites with morphology compatible with T. cruzi. From the serology of 344 random samples of human blood, 1.2% was found positive, 6% showed inconclusive results, and 92.8% were negative. CONCLUSIONS: Monte Negro shows low prevalence of human infection by T. cruzi and none active vector transmission; however, preventive and surveying measures, which are not performed until now, shall be taken due to the abundance of vectors infected by trypanosomatidae.
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This study estimates the factors of artificial environments (houses and peridomestic areas) associated with Triatoma sordida occurrence. Manual searches for triatomines were performed in 136 domiciliary units (DUs) in two rural localities of Central-West Brazil. For each DU, 32 structural, 23 biotic and 28 management variables were obtained. Multiple logistic regression analysis was performed in order to identify statistically significant variables associated with occurrence of T. sordida in the study areas. A total of 1,057 specimens (99% in peridomiciles, mainly chicken coops) of T. sordida were collected from 63 DUs (infestation: 47%; density: ~8 specimens/DU; crowding: ~17 specimens/infested DU; colonisation: 81%). Only six (0.6%) out of 945 specimens examined were infected with Trypanosoma cruzi. The final adjusted logistic regression model indicated that the probability of T. sordida occurrence was higher in DU with wooden chicken coops, presence of > 30 animals in wooden corrals, presence of wood piles and presence of food storeroom. The results show the persistence of T. sordida in peridomestic habitats in rural localities of Central-West Brazil. However, the observed low intradomestic colonisation and minimal triatomine infection rates indicate that T. sordida has low potential to sustain high rates of T. cruzi transmission to residents of these localities.
Resumo:
Until 1999 the endemic cases of Sylvatic Yellow Fever were located in the states of northern, midwestern and pre-Amazon regions. Since then, the disease progressively expanded its territory of occurrence, cases being registered beyond the traditional boundaries of endemism. The São Paulo State is considered to be part of this context, since after decades without registration of autochthonous cases of the disease, it reported, in 2000 and 2008-2009, epizootic occurrence in non-human primates and 30 cases in humans. Facts like these, added to the increase in incidences of serious adverse effects resulting from the Yellow Fever vaccination, have highlighted the importance of defining priority municipalities for vaccination against the disease in the state. Two groups of municipalities, some affected and some non-affected by YF, were compared for environmental variables related to the eco-epidemiology of the disease according to literature. The Multiple Correspondence Analysis (MCA) was used to pinpoint the factor able to differentiate the two groups of municipalities and define the levels of risk. The southeast region of the São Paulo State was considered to be the area with a higher number of municipalities classified as high risk and should be considered a priority for the application of prevention measures against Yellow Fever.