Uso do VPA: uma ferramenta melhor para a avaliação de operações

Uma das práticas mais difundidas para a avaliação de ativos operacionais é o fluxo de caixa descontado, ou FCD. Contudo, uma das versões mais comumente aceitas de FCD, o custo médio ponderado de capital, ou WACC no original inglês, tornou-se obsoleta. Este artigo discute uma metodologia alternativa ao WACC, chamada de VPA (valor presente ajustado), ou APV (adjusted present value), em inglês. O artigo mostra que essa metodologia apresenta vantagens superiores quando comparada ao WACC, especificamente pelo fato de oferecer mais informações de relevância administrativa, a um índice menor de erro, ajudando os executivos a analisar não só quanto vale um ativo, mas também a origem de seu valor.

Economic analysis of an agrosilvipastoral system for a mountainous area in Zona da Mata Mineira, Brazil

The objective of this work was to evaluate the economic viability of an agrosilvipastoral system developed for Zona da Mata mountainous areas in Minas Gerais state, Brazil, as well as to compare different options for wood (Eucalyptus grandis and Acacia mangium) commercialization of the second thinning. The data were obtained from a 10 year-old agrosilvipastoral system established in four hectares at Embrapa Gado de Leite station in Coronel Pacheco, MG, Brazil. As evaluation criteria for the economic viability analysis, the adopted methods were the net present value (NPV) and the internal rate of return (IRR), both calculated at 6% interest rate. Despite the small difference, adding value to forest products increased the attractiveness of the proposed system. Considered separately, the agricultural activity was impracticable, whereas the forestry and livestock activities were independently viable. The studied system seems to be equally tolerant to price variations for forest and livestock products, as well as strongly tolerant to variations in production costs.

CITRICULTURE ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL EVALUATION UNDER CONDITIONS OF UNCERTAINTY

ABSTRACT The citriculture consists in several environmental risks, as weather changes and pests, and also consists in considerable financial risk, mainly due to the period ofreturn on the initial investment. This study was motivated by the need to assess the risks of a business activity such as citriculture. Our objective was to build a stochastic simulation model to achieve the economic and financial analysis of an orange producer in the Midwest region of the state of Sao Paulo, under conditions of uncertainty. The parameters used were the Net Present Value (NPV), the Modified Internal Rate of Return(MIRR), and the Discounted Payback. To evaluate the risk conditions we built a probabilistic model of pseudorandom numbers generated with Monte Carlo method. The results showed that the activity analyzed provides a risk of 42.8% to reach a NPV negative; however, the yield assessed by MIRR was 7.7%, higher than the yield from the reapplication of the positive cash flows. The financial investment pays itself after the fourteenth year of activity.

INCLUDING RISK IN ECONOMIC FEASIBILITY ANALYSIS:A STOCHASTIC SIMULATION MODEL FOR BLUEBERRY INVESTMENT DECISIONS IN CHILE

ABSTRACT The traditional method of net present value (NPV) to analyze the economic profitability of an investment (based on a deterministic approach) does not adequately represent the implicit risk associated with different but correlated input variables. Using a stochastic simulation approach for evaluating the profitability of blueberry (Vaccinium corymbosum L.) production in Chile, the objective of this study is to illustrate the complexity of including risk in economic feasibility analysis when the project is subject to several but correlated risks. The results of the simulation analysis suggest that the non-inclusion of the intratemporal correlation between input variables underestimate the risk associated with investment decisions. The methodological contribution of this study illustrates the complexity of the interrelationships between uncertain variables and their impact on the convenience of carrying out this type of business in Chile. The steps for the analysis of economic viability were: First, adjusted probability distributions for stochastic input variables (SIV) were simulated and validated. Second, the random values of SIV were used to calculate random values of variables such as production, revenues, costs, depreciation, taxes and net cash flows. Third, the complete stochastic model was simulated with 10,000 iterations using random values for SIV. This result gave information to estimate the probability distributions of the stochastic output variables (SOV) such as the net present value, internal rate of return, value at risk, average cost of production, contribution margin and return on capital. Fourth, the complete stochastic model simulation results were used to analyze alternative scenarios and provide the results to decision makers in the form of probabilities, probability distributions, and for the SOV probabilistic forecasts. The main conclusion shown that this project is a profitable alternative investment in fruit trees in Chile.

Computational modeling for irrigated agriculture planning. Part I: general description and linear programming

Linear programming models are effective tools to support initial or periodic planning of agricultural enterprises, requiring, however, technical coefficients that can be determined using computer simulation models. This paper, presented in two parts, deals with the development, application and tests of a methodology and of a computational modeling tool to support planning of irrigated agriculture activities. Part I aimed at the development and application, including sensitivity analysis, of a multiyear linear programming model to optimize the financial return and water use, at farm level for Jaíba irrigation scheme, Minas Gerais State, Brazil, using data on crop irrigation requirement and yield, obtained from previous simulation with MCID model. The linear programming model outputted a crop pattern to which a maximum total net present value of R$ 372,723.00 for the four years period, was obtained. Constraints on monthly water availability, labor, land and production were critical in the optimal solution. In relation to the water use optimization, it was verified that an expressive reductions on the irrigation requirements may be achieved by small reductions on the maximum total net present value.

Computational modeling for irrigated agriculture planning. Part II: risk analysis

Techniques of evaluation of risks coming from inherent uncertainties to the agricultural activity should accompany planning studies. The risk analysis should be carried out by risk simulation using techniques as the Monte Carlo method. This study was carried out to develop a computer program so-called P-RISCO for the application of risky simulations on linear programming models, to apply to a case study, as well to test the results comparatively to the @RISK program. In the risk analysis it was observed that the average of the output variable total net present value, U, was considerably lower than the maximum U value obtained from the linear programming model. It was also verified that the enterprise will be front to expressive risk of shortage of water in the month of April, what doesn't happen for the cropping pattern obtained by the minimization of the irrigation requirement in the months of April in the four years. The scenario analysis indicated that the sale price of the passion fruit crop exercises expressive influence on the financial performance of the enterprise. In the comparative analysis it was verified the equivalence of P-RISCO and @RISK programs in the execution of the risk simulation for the considered scenario.

Technical-economic analysis of different lighting systems for broiler poultry

ABSTRACT Broiler poultry is highly dependent on artificial lightening. Power consumption costs of artificial lighting systems is the second largest expense related to broiler industry, second only to feed expenses. Therefore, the current study focused to analyze technical and economic feasibility of replacing incandescent lamps already used in aviaries with other lamp types. Costs related to power consumption, implementation and maintenance of the lighting systems were evaluated with the aid of financial mathematics using net present value, return over investment and payback. Systems composed of six lamp types were analyzed in two different configurations to meet the minimum illuminance of 5 and 20 lux and for use in conventional sheds and dark house. The lamps tested were incandescent (LI) of 100 W, compact fluorescent (CFL) of 34 W, mixed (ML) 160 W sodium vapor (SVL) of 70 W, tubular fluorescent T8 (TFL T8) of 40 W and tubular fluorescent T5 (TFL T5) of 28 W. For the systems tested, it was found that the tubular fluorescent lamps T8 and T5 showed the best results of technical and economic feasibility.

Sponsoring, brand value and social media

The increasing involvement of individuals in social media over the past decade has enabled firms to pursue new avenues in communication and sponsoring activities. Besides general research on either social media or sponsoring, questions regarding the consequences of a joint activity (sponsoring activities in social media) remain unexplored. Hence, the present study analyses whether the perceived image of the brand and the celebrity endorser credibility of a top sports team influence the perceived brand value of the sponsoring firm in a social media setting. Moreover, these effects are compared between existing customers and non-customers of the sponsoring firm. Interestingly, perceived celebrity endorser credibility plays no role in forming brand value perceptions in the case of the existing customers. Implications for marketing theory and practice are derived.

Evaluation of the diagnostic value of the tourniquet test in predicting severe dengue cases in a population from Belo Horizonte, State of Minas Gerais, Brazil

Introduction Dengue is prevalent in many tropical and sub-tropical regions. The clinical diagnosis of dengue is still complex, and not much data are available. This work aimed at assessing the diagnostic accuracy of the tourniquet test in patients with suspected dengue infection and its positivity in different classifications of this disease as reported to the Information System for Notifiable Disease in Belo Horizonte, State of Minas Gerais, Brazil between 2001 and 2006. Methods Cross-section analysis of the diagnostic accuracy of the tourniquet test for dengue, using IgM-anti-DENV ELISA as a gold standard. Results We selected 9,836 suspected cases, of which 41.1% were confirmed to be dengue. Classic dengue was present in 95.8%, dengue with complications in 2.5% and dengue hemorrhagic fever in 1.7%. The tourniquet test was positive in 16.9% of classic dengue cases, 61.7% of dengue cases with complications and 82.9% of cases of dengue hemorrhagic fever. The sensitivity and specificity of the tourniquet test were 19.1% and 86.4%, respectively. Conclusions A positive tourniquet test can be a valuable tool to support diagnosis of dengue where laboratory tests are not available. However, the absence of a positive test should not be read as the absence of infection. In addition, the tourniquet test was demonstrated to be an indicator of dengue severity.

Beyond sepsis pathophysiology with cytokines: what is their value as biomarkers for disease severity?

Sepsis is a major challenge in medicine. It is a common and frequently fatal infectious condition. The incidence continues to increase, with unacceptably high mortality rates, despite the use of specific antibiotics, aggressive operative intervention, nutritional support, and anti-inflammatory therapies. Typically, septic patients exhibit a high degree of heterogeneity due to variables such as age, weight, gender, the presence of secondary disease, the state of the immune system, and the severity of the infection. We are at urgent need for biomarkers and reliable measurements that can be applied to risk stratification of septic patients and that would easily identify those patients at the highest risk of a poor outcome. Such markers would be of fundamental importance to decision making for early intervention therapy or for the design of septic clinical trials. In the present work, we will review current biomarkers for sepsis severity and especially the use of cytokines as biomarkers with important pathophysiological role.

Precision agriculture in Australia: present status and recent developments

A brief account of the present status of Precision Agriculture (PA) in Australia is presented, and areas of opportunity in the grains, sugar and wine industries are identified. In particular, these relate to the use of spatially-distributed experimentation to fine-tune management so as to achieve production efficiencies, reduced risk of environmental impact and enhanced food security, and the management of crop quality through selective harvesting and product streaming. The latter may be an important avenue by which farmers can take a more active role in the off-farm part of agricultural value chains. The important role of grower groups in facilitating PA adoption is also discussed.

Prognosis of colorectal cancer with liver metastasis: value of a prognostic index

The objective of the present study was to explore the factors related to the prognosis of colorectal cancer (CRC) and to establish a prognostic model for the selection of patients who might benefit from hepatic resection for metastatic CRC. A total of 293 patients undergoing liver resection for metastatic CRC (172 males and 80 females ranging in age from 26 to 80 years) were selected and clinical, pathological and outcome data were examined in this retrospective study. The prognostic index (PI) of the patients was calculated on the basis of results of multivariate analysis. Patients were stratified into different groups, with survival curves projected according to PI. The 1-, 3-, and 5-year overall survival rates were 58.3, 26.4, and 11.3%, respectively. Univariate analysis indicated that degree of primary tumor differentiation, resection margin, preoperative carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) level, number of liver metastases, and resection of liver metastases were associated with prognosis (P < 0.05). In multivariate analysis, the last three factors were found to be independent prognostic factors. The resection of liver metastases was a favorable factor. Patients were classified into three groups according to PI, which differed significantly in survival rate (P < 0.05). The individual survival rate was evaluated based on PI. Resection of hepatic colorectal metastases may produce long-term survival and cure. The proposed PI was easy to use, was highly predictive of patient outcome, and permitted categorization of patients into treatment groups.

Reference value of brachial-ankle pulse wave velocity for the eastern Chinese population and potential influencing factors

The present study was conducted to obtain reference values for brachial-ankle pulse wave velocity (baPWV) and to evaluate influencing factors of baPWV according to gender. Using automatic devices, baPWV was measured simultaneously in 2095 subjects. A total of 647 healthy subjects, none of whom presented atherosclerotic risk factors, were analyzed in the present study. Two different statistical methods were used to obtain reference values for baPWV according to subject gender and age. The association between baPWV value and gender, as well as other features, were analyzed. For male subjects, multiple stepwise analysis showed that age, systolic blood pressure (SBP), heart rate (HR), and plasma levels of triglycerides (TG) were independent predictors of baPWV. For female subjects, age, SBP, HR, and plasma levels of uric acid (UA) were independent predictors of baPWV. In male subjects, the upper limits of baPWV values were 1497.43/1425.00, 1518.67/1513.25, 1715.97/1726.50, 1925.20/1971.90, and 2310.18/2115.00 cm/s, obtained using two different statistical methods for the age ranges of 30-39, 40-49, 50-59, 60-69, and 70 and older, respectively. For females, the upper limits of baPWV values were 1426.70/1411.13, 1559.15/1498.95, 1733.50/1739.00, 1958.63/1973.78, and 2720.80/2577.00 cm/s for the age ranges of 30-39, 40-49, 50-59, 60-69, and 70 and older, respectively. Aging is the most important influencing factor for baPWV value and its effect is more prominent in females. The reference values of baPWV according to age and gender may be useful for the clinical diagnosis and preventive therapy of cardiovascular diseases.

Effect of incorporation of amaranth on the physical properties and nutritional value of cheese bread

At the present celiac disease has no known cure, and its only treatment is a strict lifelong adherence to a gluten-free diet. Cheese bread is a traditional Brazilian product and a safe option for celiacs. However, like other gluten-free breads, it has inherent low levels of fibers and minerals. The objective of this study was to evaluate the effect of incorporation of whole amaranth flour on the physical properties and nutritional value of cheese bread. Amaranth flour was incorporated at 10, 15, and 20% proportions in different formulations. The increasing amaranth levels darkened the product, reduced specific volume, and increased compression force. Ten percent amaranth-content cheese breads exhibited slight differences in physical properties compared with the controls. These results demonstrated the possibility of incorporating 10% of whole amaranth flour in the formulation of cheese bread resulting in a product with higher dietary fiber and iron contents and the same level of acceptance as that of the conventional formulation. The aim of this approach is to increase the availability of gluten-free bakery products with added nutritional value contributing to increase the variety of the diet of celiac patients.

Proteins of Bacuri almonds: nutritional value and in vivo digestibility

Bacuri (Scheelea phalerata Mart.) is a type of palm fruit tree widely distributed in the Brazilian Cerrado. The objective of this paper was to study the almonds of bacuri, in their form in natura and processed, focusing on their nutritional value through the profile of amino acids, anti-nutritional factors and in vivo digestibility. Raw and toasted samples of the almond presented a high level of proteins and fiber. Proteins of raw bacuri almond showed no limiting amino acid when compared to the ones recommended by FAO/WHO, and histidine was the most limiting essential amino acid in the toasted almonds. The almond of bacuri does not present anti- nutritional factors. In an assay with rats fed with control (casein), tests (bacuri almond flours) and aproteic diets, we verified the quantity of ration ingested and body weight gain, determining the urinary and metabolic nitrogen. Rats treated with the test diets presented inferior values of True Digestibility (DV), (82.9 and 72.3%, respectively for the raw and toasted almonds) when compared to the control group (92.3%). The raw bacuri almond presented a superior nutritional value to the one found in the toasted almond.