Predictive value of serologic tests in the diagnosis and follow-up of patients with paracoccidioidomycosis

A serologic study was undertaken in a group of 43 patients with active paracoccidioidomycosis who were treated in the same form (ketoconazole), for identical periods of time (6 months), and folio wed-up for various periods posttherapy. The tests employed were agar gel immunodiffusion (AGID) and complement fixation (FC). Also studied were 50 sera from patients with proven histoplasmosis and pulmonary aspergilloma, 30 patients with culturaly proven tuberculosis as well as 92 specimens from healthy individuals, residents in the endemic area for paracoccidioidomycosis. A single lot of yeast filtrate antigen was used throughout the study. The value of each test was measured according to GALEN and GAMBINO6. Both tests were highly sensitive, 89 and 93% respectively. Regarding their specificity, the AGID was totally specific while the CF exhibited 96.6% and 97% specificity in front of tuberculosis patients and healthy individuals respectively and 82% in comparison with patients with other mycoses. The concept of predictive value, that is, the certainty one has in accepting a positive test as diagnostic of paracoccidioidomycosis, favored the AGID procedure (100%) over the CF test. The latter could sort out with 93% certainty a patient with paracoccidioidomycosis among a group of healthy individuals and with 97.5% in the case of TB patients; when the group in question was composed by individuals with other deep mycoses, such certainty was lower (81%). The above results indicate that both the AGID and the CF tests furnish results of high confidence; one should not relay, however, in the CF alone as a means to establish the specific diagnosis of paracoccidioidomycosis.

Predictive value of the ankle-brachial index in the evaluation of intermittent claudication

The purpose of this study was to determine whether the ankle-brachial index (ABI) could be used to predict the prognosis for a patient with intermittent claudication (IC). We studied 611 patients prospectively during 28 months of follow-up. We analyzed the predictive power of using various levels of ABI - 0.30 to 0.70 at 0.05 increments - in terms of the measure's specificity (association with a favorable outcome after exercise rehabilitation therapy) and sensitivity (association with a poor outcome after exercise rehabilitation therapy). We found that using an ABI of 0.30 as a cut-off value produced the lowest margin of error overall, but the predictive power was still low with respect to identifying the patients with a poor prognosis after non-aggressive therapeutic treatment. Further study is needed to perhaps identify a second factor that could increase the sensitivity of the test.

Predictive value of clinical and electrophysiological variables in patients with chronic chagasic cardiomyopathy and nonsustained ventricular tachycardia

OBJECTIVE: Risk stratification of patients with nonsustained ventricular tachycardia (NSVT) and chronic chagasic cardiomyopathy (CCC). METHODS: Seventy eight patients with CCC and NSVT were consecutively and prospectively studied. All patients underwent to 24-hour Holter monitoring, radioisotopic ventriculography, left ventricular angiography, and electrophysiologic study. With programmed ventricular stimulation. RESULTS: Sustained monomorphic ventricular tachycardia (SMVT) was induced in 25 patients (32%), NSVT in 20 (25.6%) and ventricular fibrillation in 4 (5.1%). In 29 patients (37.2%) no arrhythmia was inducible. During a 55.7-month-follow-up, 22 (28.2%) patients died, 16 due to sudden death, 2 due to nonsudden cardiac death and 4 due to noncardiac death. Logistic regression analysis showed that induction was the independent and main variable that predicted the occurrence of subsequent events and cardiac death (probability of 2.56 and 2.17, respectively). The Mantel-Haenszel chi-square test showed that survival probability was significantly lower in the inducible group than in the noninductible group. The percentage of patients free of events was significantly higher in the noninducible group. CONCLUSION: Induction of SMVT during programmed ventricular stimulation was a predictor of arrhythmia occurrence cardiac death and general mortality in patients with CCC and NSVT.

Arrhythmogenic cardiomyopathy of the right ventricle. Predictive value of QT interval dispersion to assess arrhythmogenic risk and sudden death

OBJECTIVE: To determine in arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy the value of QT interval dispersion for identifying the induction of sustained ventricular tachycardia in the electrophysiological study or the risk of sudden cardiac death. METHODS: We assessed QT interval dispersion in the 12-lead electrocardiogram of 26 patients with arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy. We analyzed its association with sustained ventricular tachycardia and sudden cardiac death, and in 16 controls similar in age and sex. RESULTS: (mean ± SD). QT interval dispersion: patients = 53.8±14.1ms; control group = 35.0±10.6ms, p=0.001. Patients with induction of ventricular tachycardia: 52.5±13.8ms; without induction of ventricular tachycardia: 57.5±12.8ms, p=0.420. In a mean follow-up period of 41±11 months, five sudden cardiac deaths occurred. QT interval dispersion in this group was 62.0±17.8, and in the others it was 51.9±12.8ms, p=0.852. Using a cutoff > or = 60ms to define an increase in the degree of the QT interval dispersion, we were able to identify patients at risk of sudden cardiac death with a sensitivity of 60%, a specificity of 57%, and positive and negative predictive values of 25% and 85%, respectively. CONCLUSION: Patients with arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy have a significant increase in the degree of QT interval dispersion when compared with the healthy population. However it, did not identify patients with induction of ventricular tachycardia in the electrophysiological study, showing a very low predictive value for defining the risk of sudden cardiac death in the population studied.

Predictive value of the acid fast smear for detection of Mycobacterium tuberculosis in respiratory specimens in a Reference Center of HIV/Aids in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

In order to evaluate the predictive value of acid fast bacilii (AFB) smear for the diagnosis of Mycobacterium tuberculosis in respiratory specimens in a setting with a high prevalence of Aids and an unknown prevalence of nontuberculous mycobacteria (NTM), we retrospectively examined specimens cultured for mycobacteria between 1 September 1993 and 30 September 1994 and medical records of patients with positive culture in a General Hospital, Aids reference in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Seventy three per cent (1517/2077) of samples were respiratory specimens and mycobacteria were recovered from 20.6% (313/1517) of these. M. tuberculosis was identified in 94.2% (295/313) and NTM in 5.8% (18/313). The yield of positive AFB smear and of positive culture was 6.1% (93/1517) and 20.6% (313/1517), respectively. The positive predictive value (PPV) of AFB for M. tuberculosis was 98.4% in expectorated sputum and 96.4% in bronchoalveolar lavage. Forty four percent (130/295) of specimens with positive culture for M. tuberculosis and 66.7% (12/18) for NTM were from patients HIV positive. The conclusion was that in our study population, the PPV of AFB for M. tuberculosis in respiratory specimens was high and the prevalence of NTM was low despite the high prevalence of HIV positive.

Assessment and prediction of asthma and its severity in the pediatric community

Seventy four asthmatic children aged 7 to 11 years were examined along with controls matched by age and sex. Clinical and laboratory investigations preceded a 28-day follow-up where data about morning and evening peak expiratory flow rate (PEF), symptoms and treatment were recorded. The coefficient of variation of PEF was found to be an objective measurement of asthma severity that has statistically significant correlation with both symptoms (r s= .36) and treatment (r s= .60). Moreover, it separates mild and severe asthmatics, as confirmed by statistically significant differences (p= .008 or less) in symptoms, treatment, skin allergy and airways response to exercise. Skin allergy and airways responsiveness to exercise were found to be predictors of both disease and severity. By means of logistic regression analysis it was possible to establish the probabilities for both asthma and severe asthma when children presenting and not presenting these characteristics are compared. One single positive skin test represent a probability of 88% for the development of asthma and a probability of 70% for severe disease. A PEF reduction of 10% after an exercise test implies a probability of 73% for disease and a probability of 64% for severe disease. Increases in these variables imply geometrically increased risks and their presence together have a multiplicative effect in the final risk.

Prognostic value of technetium-99m-labeled single-photon emission computerized tomography in the follow-up of patients after their first myocardial revascularization surgery

OBJECTIVE: To assess the prognostic value of Technetium-99m-labeled single-photon emission computerized tomography (SPECT) in the follow-up of patients who had undergone their first myocardial revascularization. METHODS: We carried out a retrospective study of 280 revascularized patients undergoing myocardial scintigraphy under stress (exercise or pharmacological stress with dipyridamole) and at rest according to a 2-day protocol. A set of clinical, stress electrocardiographic and scintigraphic variables was assessed. Cardiac events were classified as "major" (death, infarction, unstable angina) and "any" (major event or coronary angioplasty or new myocardial revascularization surgery). RESULTS: Thirty-six major events occurred as follows: 3 deaths, 11 infarctions, and 22 unstable anginas. In regard to any event, 22 angioplasties and 7 new surgeries occurred in addition to major events, resulting a total of 65 events. The sensitivity of scintigraphy in prognosticating a major event or any event was, respectively, 55% and 58%, showing a negative predictive value of 90% and 83%, respectively. Diabetes mellitus, inconclusive stress electrocardiography, and a scintigraphic visualization of left ventricular enlargement were significant variables for the occurrence of a major event. On multivariate analysis, abnormal myocardial scintigraphy was a predictor of any event. CONCLUSION: Myocardial perfusion tomography with Technetium-99m may be used to identify high-risk patients after their first myocardial revascularization surgery.

Relevance to Home Blood Pressure Monitoring Protocol of Blood Pressure Measurements Taken Before First- Morning Micturition and in the Afternoon

Background: The importance of measuring blood pressure before morning micturition and in the afternoon, while working, is yet to be established in relation to the accuracy of home blood pressure monitoring (HBPM). Objective: To compare two HBPM protocols, considering 24-hour ambulatory blood pressure monitoring (wakefulness ABPM) as gold-standard and measurements taken before morning micturition (BM) and in the afternoon (AM), for the best diagnosis of systemic arterial hypertension (SAH), and their association with prognostic markers. Methods: After undergoing 24-hour wakefulness ABPM, 158 participants (84 women) were randomized for 3- or 5-day HBPM. Two variations of the 3-day protocol were considered: with measurements taken before morning micturition and in the afternoon (BM+AM); and with post-morning-micturition and evening measurements (PM+EM). All patients underwent echocardiography (for left ventricular hypertrophy - LVH) and urinary albumin measurement (for microalbuminuria - MAU). Result: Kappa statistic for the diagnosis of SAH between wakefulness-ABPM and standard 3-day HBPM, 3-day HBPM (BM+AM) and (PM+EM), and 5-day HBPM were 0.660, 0.638, 0.348 and 0.387, respectively. The values of sensitivity of (BM+AM) versus (PM+EM) were 82.6% × 71%, respectively, and of specificity, 84.8% × 74%, respectively. The positive and negative predictive values were 69.1% × 40% and 92.2% × 91.2%, respectively. The comparisons of intraclass correlations for the diagnosis of LVH and MAU between (BM+AM) and (PM+EM) were 0.782 × 0.474 and 0.511 × 0.276, respectively. Conclusions: The 3 day-HBPM protocol including measurements taken before morning micturition and during work in the afternoon showed the best agreement with SAH diagnosis and the best association with prognostic markers.

Validation of a Brazilian Portuguese Version of the Walking Estimated-Limitation Calculated by History (WELCH)

Abstract Background: The Walking Estimated-Limitation Calculated by History (WELCH) questionnaire has been proposed to evaluate walking impairment in patients with intermittent claudication (IC), presenting satisfactory psychometric properties. However, a Brazilian Portuguese version of the questionnaire is unavailable, limiting its application in Brazilian patients. Objective: To analyze the psychometric properties of a translated Brazilian Portuguese version of the WELCH in Brazilian patients with IC. Methods: Eighty-four patients with IC participated in the study. After translation and back-translation, carried out by two independent translators, the concurrent validity of the WELCH was analyzed by correlating the questionnaire scores with the walking capacity assessed with the Gardner treadmill test. To determine the reliability of the WELCH, internal consistency and test–retest reliability with a seven-day interval between the two questionnaire applications were calculated. Results: There were significant correlations between the WELCH score and the claudication onset distance (r = 0.64, p = 0.01) and total walking distance (r = 0.61, p = 0.01). The internal consistency was 0.84 and the intraclass correlation coefficient between questionnaire evaluations was 0.84. There were no differences in WELCH scores between the two questionnaire applications. Conclusion: The Brazilian Portuguese version of the WELCH presents adequate validity and reliability indicators, which support its application to Brazilian patients with IC.

Predictive Capability of HPV and Pap Tests in Screening for Cervical Cancer over a Three-Year Follow-up

Purpose To compare the predictive capability of HPV and Pap smear tests for screening pre-cancerous lesions of the cervix over a three-year follow-up, in a population of users of the Brazilian National Health System (SUS). Methods This is a retrospective cohort study of 2,032 women with satisfactory results for Pap smear and HPV tests using second-generation hybrid capture,made in a previous study. We followed them for 36 months with data obtained from medical records, the Cervix Cancer Information System (SISCOLO), and the Mortality Information System (SIM). The outcome was a histological diagnosis of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 2 or more advanced lesions (CIN2ş). We constructed progression curves of the baseline test results for the period, using the Kaplan-Meier method, and estimated sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive value, and positive and negative likelihood ratios for each test. Results A total of 1,440 women had at least one test during follow-up. Progression curves of the baseline test results indicated differences in capability to detect CIN2ş (p < 0.001) with significantly greater capability when both tests were abnormal, followed by only a positive HPV test. The HPV test was more sensitive than the Pap smear (88.7% and 73.6%, respectively; p < 0.05) and had a better negative likelihood ratio (0.13 and 0.30, respectively). Specificity and positive likelihood ratio of the tests were similar. Conclusions These findings corroborate the importance of HPV test as a primary cervical cancer screening.

Survival and Predictive Factors of Lethality in Hemodyalisis: D/I Polymorphism of The Angiotensin I-Converting Enzyme and of the Angiotensinogen M235T Genes

Background: End-stage kidney disease patients continue to have markedly increased cardiovascular disease morbidity and mortality. Analysis of genetic factors connected with the renin-angiotensin system that influences the survival of the patients with end-stage kidney disease supports the ongoing search for improved outcomes. Objective: To assess survival and its association with the polymorphism of renin-angiotensin system genes: angiotensin I-converting enzyme insertion/deletion and angiotensinogen M235T in patients undergoing hemodialysis. Methods: Our study was designed to examine the role of renin-angiotensin system genes. It was an observational study. We analyzed 473 chronic hemodialysis patients in four dialysis units in the state of Rio de Janeiro. Survival rates were calculated by the Kaplan-Meier method and the differences between the curves were evaluated by Tarone-Ware, Peto-Prentice, and log rank tests. We also used logistic regression analysis and the multinomial model. A p value ≤ 0.05 was considered to be statistically significant. The local medical ethics committee gave their approval to this study. Results: The mean age of patients was 45.8 years old. The overall survival rate was 48% at 11 years. The major causes of death were cardiovascular diseases (34%) and infections (15%). Logistic regression analysis found statistical significance for the following variables: age (p = 0.000038), TT angiotensinogen (p = 0.08261), and family income greater than five times the minimum wage (p = 0.03089), the latter being a protective factor. Conclusions: The survival of hemodialysis patients is likely to be influenced by the TT of the angiotensinogen M235T gene.

Positive predictive values of Breast Imaging Reporting and Data System (BI-RADS®) categories 3, 4 and 5 in breast lesions submitted to percutaneous biopsy

Objective To evaluate the BI-RADS as a predictive factor of suspicion for malignancy in breast lesions by correlating radiological with histological results and calculating the positive predictive value for categories 3, 4 and 5 in a breast cancer reference center in the city of São Paulo. Materials and Methods Retrospective, analytical and cross-sectional study including 725 patients with mammographic and/or sonographic findings classified as BI-RADS categories 3, 4 and 5 who were referred to the authors' institution to undergo percutaneous biopsy. The tests results were reviewed and the positive predictive value was calculated by means of a specific mathematical equation. Results Positive predictive values found for categories 3, 4 and 5 were respectively the following: 0.74%, 33.08% and 92.95%, for cases submitted to ultrasound-guided biopsy, and 0.00%, 14.90% and 100% for cases submitted to stereotactic biopsy. Conclusion The present study demonstrated high suspicion for malignancy in lesions classified as category 5 and low risk for category 3. As regards category 4, the need for systematic biopsies was observed.

Predictive significance of standardized uptake value parameters of FDG-PET in patients with non-small cell lung carcinoma

18F-fluoro-2-deoxyglucose (FDG) positron emission tomography (PET)/computed tomography (CT) is widely used to diagnose and stage non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). The aim of this retrospective study was to evaluate the predictive ability of different FDG standardized uptake values (SUVs) in 74 patients with newly diagnosed NSCLC. 18F-FDG PET/CT scans were performed and different SUV parameters (SUVmax, SUVavg, SUVT/L, and SUVT/A) obtained, and their relationship with clinical characteristics were investigated. Meanwhile, correlation and multiple stepwise regression analyses were performed to determine the primary predictor of SUVs for NSCLC. Age, gender, and tumor size significantly affected SUV parameters. The mean SUVs of squamous cell carcinoma were higher than those of adenocarcinoma. Poorly differentiated tumors exhibited higher SUVs than well-differentiated ones. Further analyses based on the pathologic type revealed that the SUVmax, SUVavg, and SUVT/L of poorly differentiated adenocarcinoma tumors were higher than those of moderately or well-differentiated tumors. Among these four SUV parameters, SUVT/Lwas the primary predictor for tumor differentiation. However, in adenocarcinoma, SUVmax was the determining factor for tumor differentiation. Our results showed that these four SUV parameters had predictive significance related to NSCLC tumor differentiation; SUVT/L appeared to be most useful overall, but SUVmax was the best index for adenocarcinoma tumor differentiation.

Performance indexes of a dot-enzime-linked immunosorbent assay (dot-ELISA) and an ezyme-linked immunosorbent assay (IgG-ELISA) for field surveys of new world leishmaniasis

Diagnostic performance indexes of sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and efficiency were determined for dot-ELISA and IgG-ELISA tests in 340 leishmaniasis sera. Sensitivity of the dot-ELISA was significantly lower than IgG-ELISA's; the two tests had indexes of specificity and positive predictive value of the same magnitude. Seventy-eight sera gave a negative dot-ELISA test result and a positive IgG-ELISA test result. When sera were classified according to different criteria as how to interpret this diversity, the kappa statistic did not corroborate the classification indicating that the two tests display a substantial strength of agreement. The results presented indicate that performance indexes accrued in a survey where variables arc well known may be extrapolated to other population studies if the disease presents itself as highly prevalent (due to a selection bias or not) and may be expected to discriminate a disease status among test positives.

The value of adenosine deaminase (ADA) determination in the diagnosis of tuberculous ascites

In order to evaluate the role of the determination of adenosine deaminase activity (ADA) in ascitic fluid for the diagnosis of tuberculosis, 44 patients were studied. Based on biochemical, cytological, histopathological and microbiological tests, the patients were divided into 5 groups: G1 - tuberculous ascites (n = 8); G2 - malignant ascites (n = 13); G3 - spontaneous bacterial peritonitis (n = 6); G4 - pancreatic ascites (n = 2); G5 - miscelaneous ascites (n = 15). ADA concentration were significantly higher in G1 (133.50 ± 24.74 U/l) compared to the other groups (G2 = 41.85 ± 52.07 U/l; G3 = 10.63 ± 5.87 U/l; G4 = 18.00 ± 7.07 U/l; G5 = 11.23 ± 7.66 U/l). At a cut-off value of >31 U/l, the sensitivity, specificity and positive and negative preditive values were 100%, 92%, 72% and 100%, respectively. ADA concentrations as high as in tuberculous ascites were only found in two malignant ascites caused by lymphoma. We conclude that ADA determination in ascitic fluid is a useful and reliable screening test for diagnosing tuberculous ascites. Values of ADA higher than 31 U/l indicate more invasive methods to confirm the diagnosis of tuberculosis.