Appraisal of Phlebotomus argentipes habitat suitability using a remotely sensed index in the kala-azar endemic focus of Bihar, India

Visceral leishmaniasis, or kala-azar, is recognised as a serious emerging public health problem in India. In this study, environmental parameters, such as land surface temperature (LST) and renormalised difference vegetation indices (RDVI), were used to delineate the association between environmental variables and Phlebotomus argentipes abundance in a representative endemic region of Bihar, India. The adult P. argentipes were collected between September 2009-February 2010 using the hand-held aspirator technique. The distribution of P. argentipes was analysed with the LST and RDVI of the peak and lean seasons. The association between environmental covariates and P. argentipes density was analysed a multivariate linear regression model. The sandfly density at its maximum in September, whereas the minimum density was recorded in January. The regression model indicated that the season, minimum LST, mean LST and mean RDVI were the best environmental covariates for the P. argentipes distribution. The final model indicated that nearly 74% of the variance of sandfly density could be explained by these environmental covariates. This approach might be useful for mapping and predicting the distribution of P. argentipes, which may help the health agencies that are involved in the kala-azar control programme focus on high-risk areas.

Digital soil mapping: strategy for data pre-processing

The region of greatest variability on soil maps is along the edge of their polygons, causing disagreement among pedologists about the appropriate description of soil classes at these locations. The objective of this work was to propose a strategy for data pre-processing applied to digital soil mapping (DSM). Soil polygons on a training map were shrunk by 100 and 160 m. This strategy prevented the use of covariates located near the edge of the soil classes for the Decision Tree (DT) models. Three DT models derived from eight predictive covariates, related to relief and organism factors sampled on the original polygons of a soil map and on polygons shrunk by 100 and 160 m were used to predict soil classes. The DT model derived from observations 160 m away from the edge of the polygons on the original map is less complex and has a better predictive performance.

An appropriate data set size for digital soil mapping in Erechim, Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil

Digital information generates the possibility of a high degree of redundancy in the data available for fitting predictive models used for Digital Soil Mapping (DSM). Among these models, the Decision Tree (DT) technique has been increasingly applied due to its capacity of dealing with large datasets. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the impact of the data volume used to generate the DT models on the quality of soil maps. An area of 889.33 km² was chosen in the Northern region of the State of Rio Grande do Sul. The soil-landscape relationship was obtained from reambulation of the studied area and the alignment of the units in the 1:50,000 scale topographic mapping. Six predictive covariates linked to the factors soil formation, relief and organisms, together with data sets of 1, 3, 5, 10, 15, 20 and 25 % of the total data volume, were used to generate the predictive DT models in the data mining program Waikato Environment for Knowledge Analysis (WEKA). In this study, sample densities below 5 % resulted in models with lower power of capturing the complexity of the spatial distribution of the soil in the study area. The relation between the data volume to be handled and the predictive capacity of the models was best for samples between 5 and 15 %. For the models based on these sample densities, the collected field data indicated an accuracy of predictive mapping close to 70 %.

Building predictive models of soil particle-size distribution

Is it possible to build predictive models (PMs) of soil particle-size distribution (psd) in a region with complex geology and a young and unstable land-surface? The main objective of this study was to answer this question. A set of 339 soil samples from a small slope catchment in Southern Brazil was used to build PMs of psd in the surface soil layer. Multiple linear regression models were constructed using terrain attributes (elevation, slope, catchment area, convergence index, and topographic wetness index). The PMs explained more than half of the data variance. This performance is similar to (or even better than) that of the conventional soil mapping approach. For some size fractions, the PM performance can reach 70 %. Largest uncertainties were observed in geologically more complex areas. Therefore, significant improvements in the predictions can only be achieved if accurate geological data is made available. Meanwhile, PMs built on terrain attributes are efficient in predicting the particle-size distribution (psd) of soils in regions of complex geology.

Evaluation of statistical and geostatistical models of digital soil properties mapping in tropical mountain regions

Soil properties have an enormous impact on economic and environmental aspects of agricultural production. Quantitative relationships between soil properties and the factors that influence their variability are the basis of digital soil mapping. The predictive models of soil properties evaluated in this work are statistical (multiple linear regression-MLR) and geostatistical (ordinary kriging and co-kriging). The study was conducted in the municipality of Bom Jardim, RJ, using a soil database with 208 sampling points. Predictive models were evaluated for sand, silt and clay fractions, pH in water and organic carbon at six depths according to the specifications of the consortium of digital soil mapping at the global level (GlobalSoilMap). Continuous covariates and categorical predictors were used and their contributions to the model assessed. Only the environmental covariates elevation, aspect, stream power index (SPI), soil wetness index (SWI), normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), and b3/b2 band ratio were significantly correlated with soil properties. The predictive models had a mean coefficient of determination of 0.21. Best results were obtained with the geostatistical predictive models, where the highest coefficient of determination 0.43 was associated with sand properties between 60 to 100 cm deep. The use of a sparse data set of soil properties for digital mapping can explain only part of the spatial variation of these properties. The results may be related to the sampling density and the quantity and quality of the environmental covariates and predictive models used.

Mapping the Obama administration's response to the Arab Spring

When the Arab Spring broke out, the United States was in a quandary over how to handle the crisis in its attempt to balance its moral obligations and ideals without undercutting its strategic interests and those of its close allies. Flaws in US diplomatic approach have contributed to one of the most serious foreign policy crisis for a US administration to date with consequential upheaval and erosion of the US-built balance of power. The reactions and policy responses of the Obama administration highlight the difficulties in grasping with the new reality in the Middle East and in enunciating a policy platform that could combine American interests and values.

Ecologia de mosquitos (Diptera: Culicidae) em áreas do Parque Nacional da Serra da Bocaina, Brasil.I - Distribuição por habitat

OBJETIVO: Estabelecer a influência exercida por três diferentes biótopos em áreas do Parque Nacional da Serra da Bocaina (PNSB) sobre a fauna local de mosquitos. MÉTODOS: Foram realizadas capturas mensais em ambiente silvestre e domiciliar, em isca humana, durante três diferentes períodos do dia, pelo período de 24 meses consecutivos, de janeiro de 1991 a dezembro de 1992. RESULTADOS: Foram capturados 11.808 espécimes adultos, pertencentes a 28 espécies. Ru. reversa e An. cruzii foram predominantes, respectivamente 52,5% e 17,9% do total de mosquitos. Ru. reversa representou 59,4% do total de espécimes no ambiente de mata fechada, seguida por Ru. frontosa com 10,5% e An. cruzii com 9,9%. No ambiente formado por campos de altitude e matas de galeria, o An. cruzii predominou com 48,1%, seguido por Ru. reversa com 28,1%. No ambiente modificado pelo homem, o An. cruzii predominou com 73,7% dos espécimes. Coquillettidia chrysonotum foi a única que se apresentou preferencialmente nesse biótopo: 14,9% no intra, 19,4% no peri e 65,7% no extradomicílio. An. cruzii e Ru. reversa foram constantes em todos os ambientes ao longo do ano. CONCLUSÕES: Com exceção de Cq. chrysonotum, com preferência pelo ambiente modificado pelo homem, os mosquitos apresentam hábitos assinantrópicos no PNSB. An. cruzii, embora assinantrópico, se aproxima e adentra o domicílio para realizar a hematofagia. A presença do Ae. serratus no extra e peridomicílio reforça a importância epidemiológica como vetora potencial de arboviroses. Os Sabethini apresentaram-se exclusivamente silvestres.

Entomological aspects of Chagas' disease transmission in the domestic habitat, Argentina

OBJECTIVE: To study the risk of Trypanosoma cruzi domestic transmission using an entomological index and to explore its relationship with household's characteristics and cultural aspects. METHODS: There were studied 158 households in an endemic area in Argentina. Each household was classified according to an entomological risk indicator (number of risky bites/human). A questionnaire was administered to evaluate risk factors among householders. RESULTS: Infested households showed a wide range of risk values (0 to 5 risky bites/human) with skewed distribution, a high frequency of lower values and few very high risk households. Of all collected Triatoma infestans, 44% had had human blood meals whereas 27% had had dogs or chickens blood meals. Having dogs and birds sharing room with humans increased the risk values. Tidy clean households had contributed significantly to lower risk values as a result of low vector density. The infested households showed a 24.3% correlation between time after insecticide application and the number of vectors. But there was no correlation between the time after insecticide application and T. infestans' infectivity. The statistical analysis showed a high correlation between current values of the entomological risk indicator and Trypanosoma cruzi seroprevalence in children. CONCLUSIONS: The risk of T. cruzi domestic transmission assessed using an entomological index show a correlation with children seroprevalence for Chagas' disease and householders' habits.

Predictive value of serologic tests in the diagnosis and follow-up of patients with paracoccidioidomycosis

A serologic study was undertaken in a group of 43 patients with active paracoccidioidomycosis who were treated in the same form (ketoconazole), for identical periods of time (6 months), and folio wed-up for various periods posttherapy. The tests employed were agar gel immunodiffusion (AGID) and complement fixation (FC). Also studied were 50 sera from patients with proven histoplasmosis and pulmonary aspergilloma, 30 patients with culturaly proven tuberculosis as well as 92 specimens from healthy individuals, residents in the endemic area for paracoccidioidomycosis. A single lot of yeast filtrate antigen was used throughout the study. The value of each test was measured according to GALEN and GAMBINO6. Both tests were highly sensitive, 89 and 93% respectively. Regarding their specificity, the AGID was totally specific while the CF exhibited 96.6% and 97% specificity in front of tuberculosis patients and healthy individuals respectively and 82% in comparison with patients with other mycoses. The concept of predictive value, that is, the certainty one has in accepting a positive test as diagnostic of paracoccidioidomycosis, favored the AGID procedure (100%) over the CF test. The latter could sort out with 93% certainty a patient with paracoccidioidomycosis among a group of healthy individuals and with 97.5% in the case of TB patients; when the group in question was composed by individuals with other deep mycoses, such certainty was lower (81%). The above results indicate that both the AGID and the CF tests furnish results of high confidence; one should not relay, however, in the CF alone as a means to establish the specific diagnosis of paracoccidioidomycosis.

An unusual ground larval habitat of Aedes albopictus

Relata-se o encontro de criadouro de Aedes albopictus no solo. Tratou-se de buraco resultante da queda de árvore Piptadenia ("angico branco") onde foram coletadas larvas daquele mosquito, juntamente com representantes de Culex declarator, Cx. quinquefasciatus e Culex (Cux.) sp. do Grupo Coronator. O criadouro comportou cerca de 17 litros de água proveniente de chuvas locais. O achado deu-se em mata residual dentro de perímetro urbano da cidade de Pindamo-nhangaba no Vale do Paraíba, Estado de São Paulo, Brasil. Discute-se o significado do encontro como provável indicador de ecletismo comportamental e de adaptação do culicídeo ao ambiente antrópico.

Predictive factors for response to Lamivudine in chronic hepatitis B

BACKGROUND: Lamivudine has been shown to be an efficient drug for chronic hepatitis B (CHB) treatment. AIM: To investigate predictive factors of response, using a quantitative method with high sensitivity. METHODS: We carried out a prospective trial of lamivudine in 35 patients with CHB and evidence for viral replication, regardless to their HBeAg status. Lamivudine was given for 12 months at 300 mg daily and 150 mg thereafter. Response was considered when DNA was undetectable by PCR after 6 months of treatment. Viral replication was monitored by end-point dilution PCR. Mutation associated with resistance to lamivudine was detected by DNA sequencing in non-responder patients. RESULTS: Response was observed in 23/35 patients (65.7%) but only in 5/15 (33.3%) HBeAg positive patients. Only three pre-treatment variables were associated to low response: HBeAg (p = 0.006), high viral load (DNA-VHB > 3 x 10(6) copies/ml) (p = 0.004) and liver HBcAg (p = 0.0028). YMDD mutations were detected in 7/11 non-responder patients. CONCLUSIONS: HBeAg positive patients with high viral load show a high risk for developing drug resistance. On the other hand, HBeAg negative patients show a good response to lamivudine even with high viremia.

Mapping of a Leishmania major gene/locus that confers pentamidine resistance by deletion and insertion of transposable element

Pentamidine (PEN) is an alternative compound to treat antimony-resistant leishmaniasis patients, which cellular target remains unclear. One approach to the identification of prospective targets is to identify genes able to mediate PEN resistance following overexpression. Starting from a genomic library of transfected parasites bearing a multicopy episomal cosmid vector containing wild-type Leishmania major DNA, we isolated one locus capable to render PEN resistance to wild type cells after DNA transfection. In order to map this Leishmania locus, cosmid insert was deleted by two successive sets of partial digestion with restriction enzymes, followed by transfection into wild type cells, overexpression, induction and functional tests in the presence of PEN. To determine the Leishmania gene related to PEN resistance, nucleotide sequencing experiments were done through insertion of the transposon Mariner element of Drosophila melanogaster (mosK) into the deleted insert to work as primer island. Using general molecular techniques, we described here this method that permits a quickly identification of a functional gene facilitating nucleotide sequence experiments from large DNA fragments. Followed experiments revealed the presence of a P-Glycoprotein gene in this locus which role in Leishmania metabolism has now been analyzed.

Predictive factors of mortality in burn patients

Burn mortality statistics may be misleading unless they account properly for the many factors that can influence outcome. Such estimates are useful for patients and others making medical and financial decisions concerning their care. This study aimed to define the clinical, microbiological and laboratorial predictors of mortality with a view to focus on better burn care. Data were collected using independent variables, which were analyzed sequentially and cumulatively, employing univariate statistics and a pooled, cross-sectional, multivariate logistic regression to establish which variables better predict the probability of mortality. Survivors and non-survivors among burn patients were compared to define the predictive factors of mortality. Mortality rate was 5.0%. Higher age, larger burn area, presence of fungi in the wound, shorter length of stay and the presence of multi-resistant bacteria in the wound significantly predicted increased mortality. The authors conclude that those patients who are most apt to die are those with age > 50 years, with limited skin donor sites and those with multi-resistant bacteria and fungi in the wound.

PREDICTIVE FACTORS FOR THE PROGRESSION OF CHRONIC CHAGAS CARDIOMYOPATHY IN PATIENTS WITHOUT LEFT VENTRICULAR DYSFUNCTION

The identification of predictors for the progression of chronic Chagas cardiomyopathy (CCC) is essential to ensure adequate patient management. This study looked into a non-concurrent cohort of 165 CCC patients between 1985 and 2010 for independent predictors for CCC progression. The outcomes were worsening of the CCC scores and the onset of left ventricular dysfunction assessed by means of echo-Doppler cardiography. Patients were analyzed for social, demographic, epidemiologic, clinical and workup-related variables. A descriptive analysis was conducted, followed by survival curves based on univariate (Kaplan-Meier and Cox’s univariate model) and multivariate (Cox regression model) analysis. Patients were followed from two to 20 years (mean: 8.2). Their mean age was 44.8 years (20-77). Comparing both iterations of the study, in the second there was a statistically significant increase in the PR interval and in the QRS duration, despite a reduction in heart rates (Wilcoxon < 0.01). The predictors for CCC progression in the final regression model were male gender (HR = 2.81), Holter monitoring showing pauses equal to or greater than two seconds (HR = 3.02) increased cardiothoracic ratio (HR = 7.87) and time of use of digitalis (HR = 1.41). Patients with multiple predictive factors require stricter follow-up and treatment.