Comparing the artificial neural network with parcial least squares for prediction of soil organic carbon and pH at different moisture content levels using visible and near-infrared spectroscopy

Visible and near infrared (vis-NIR) spectroscopy is widely used to detect soil properties. The objective of this study is to evaluate the combined effect of moisture content (MC) and the modeling algorithm on prediction of soil organic carbon (SOC) and pH. Partial least squares (PLS) and the Artificial neural network (ANN) for modeling of SOC and pH at different MC levels were compared in terms of efficiency in prediction of regression. A total of 270 soil samples were used. Before spectral measurement, dry soil samples were weighed to determine the amount of water to be added by weight to achieve the specified gravimetric MC levels of 5, 10, 15, 20, and 25 %. A fiber-optic vis-NIR spectrophotometer (350-2500 nm) was used to measure spectra of soil samples in the diffuse reflectance mode. Spectra preprocessing and PLS regression were carried using Unscrambler® software. Statistica® software was used for ANN modeling. The best prediction result for SOC was obtained using the ANN (RMSEP = 0.82 % and RPD = 4.23) for soil samples with 25 % MC. The best prediction results for pH were obtained with PLS for dry soil samples (RMSEP = 0.65 % and RPD = 1.68) and soil samples with 10 % MC (RMSEP = 0.61 % and RPD = 1.71). Whereas the ANN showed better performance for SOC prediction at all MC levels, PLS showed better predictive accuracy of pH at all MC levels except for 25 % MC. Therefore, based on the data set used in the current study, the ANN is recommended for the analyses of SOC at all MC levels, whereas PLS is recommended for the analysis of pH at MC levels below 20 %.

Development and Validation of Predictive Models of Cardiac Mortality and Transplantation in Resynchronization Therapy

AbstractBackground:30-40% of cardiac resynchronization therapy cases do not achieve favorable outcomes.Objective:This study aimed to develop predictive models for the combined endpoint of cardiac death and transplantation (Tx) at different stages of cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT).Methods:Prospective observational study of 116 patients aged 64.8 ± 11.1 years, 68.1% of whom had functional class (FC) III and 31.9% had ambulatory class IV. Clinical, electrocardiographic and echocardiographic variables were assessed by using Cox regression and Kaplan-Meier curves.Results:The cardiac mortality/Tx rate was 16.3% during the follow-up period of 34.0 ± 17.9 months. Prior to implantation, right ventricular dysfunction (RVD), ejection fraction < 25% and use of high doses of diuretics (HDD) increased the risk of cardiac death and Tx by 3.9-, 4.8-, and 5.9-fold, respectively. In the first year after CRT, RVD, HDD and hospitalization due to congestive heart failure increased the risk of death at hazard ratios of 3.5, 5.3, and 12.5, respectively. In the second year after CRT, RVD and FC III/IV were significant risk factors of mortality in the multivariate Cox model. The accuracy rates of the models were 84.6% at preimplantation, 93% in the first year after CRT, and 90.5% in the second year after CRT. The models were validated by bootstrapping.Conclusion:We developed predictive models of cardiac death and Tx at different stages of CRT based on the analysis of simple and easily obtainable clinical and echocardiographic variables. The models showed good accuracy and adjustment, were validated internally, and are useful in the selection, monitoring and counseling of patients indicated for CRT.

Local behavior and lymph node metastases of Wilms' tumor: accuracy of computed tomography

Objective To evaluate the accuracy of computed tomography for local and lymph node staging of Wilms' tumor. Materials and Methods Each case of Wilms' tumor was evaluated for the presence of abdominal lymph nodes by a radiologist. Signs of capsule and adjacent organ invasion were analyzed. Surgical and histopathological results were taken as the gold standard. Results Sensitivity was 100% for both mesenteric and retroperitoneal lymph nodes detection, and specificity was, respectively, 12% and 33%, with positive predictive value of 8% and 11% and negative predictive value of 100%. Signs of capsular invasion presented sensitivity of 87%, specificity of 77%, positive predictive value of 63% and negative predictive value of 93%. Signs of adjacent organ invasion presented sensitivity of 100%, specificity of 78%, positive predictive value of 37% and negative predictive value of 100%. Conclusion Computed tomography tumor showed low specificity and low positive predictive value in the detection of lymph node dissemination. The absence of detectable lymph nodes makes their presence unlikely, and likewise regarding the evaluation of local behavior of tumors.

Accuracy of computer-aided ultrasound as compared with magnetic resonance imaging in the evaluation of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease in obese and eutrophic adolescents

AbstractObjective:To compare the accuracy of computer-aided ultrasound (US) and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) by means of hepatorenal gradient analysis in the evaluation of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) in adolescents.Materials and Methods:This prospective, cross-sectional study evaluated 50 adolescents (aged 11–17 years), including 24 obese and 26 eutrophic individuals. All adolescents underwent computer-aided US, MRI, laboratory tests, and anthropometric evaluation. Sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values and accuracy were evaluated for both imaging methods, with subsequent generation of the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and calculation of the area under the ROC curve to determine the most appropriate cutoff point for the hepatorenal gradient in order to predict the degree of steatosis, utilizing MRI results as the gold-standard.Results:The obese group included 29.2% girls and 70.8% boys, and the eutrophic group, 69.2% girls and 30.8% boys. The prevalence of NAFLD corresponded to 19.2% for the eutrophic group and 83% for the obese group. The ROC curve generated for the hepatorenal gradient with a cutoff point of 13 presented 100% sensitivity and 100% specificity. As the same cutoff point was considered for the eutrophic group, false-positive results were observed in 9.5% of cases (90.5% specificity) and false-negative results in 0% (100% sensitivity).Conclusion:Computer-aided US with hepatorenal gradient calculation is a simple and noninvasive technique for semiquantitative evaluation of hepatic echogenicity and could be useful in the follow-up of adolescents with NAFLD, population screening for this disease as well as for clinical studies.

Percutaneous core biopsy of palpable breast lesions: accuracy of frozen section histopathological exam in the diagnosis of breast cancer

OBJECTIVE: to evaluate the accuracy of frozen section histopathology from fragments of tissue obtained by percutaneous core needle biopsy of palpable tumors in the diagnosis of breast cancer. METHODS: a cohort study was performed on 57 patients with palpable tumors and suspected breast cancer undergoing percutaneous thick needle core biopsy. The fragments were analyzed by the same pathologist. RESULTS: frozen section diagnosed 16 benign cases (28.6%) and 40 malignant (71.4%), whereas paraffin showed that 15 were benign (26.8%) and 41 malignant (73.2%). Histopathological examinations were concordant in 55 cases and there was one false-negative (6.2%). Statistics rates were: negative predictive value of 93.8%, positive predictive value of 100%, no false-positive (0%), one false negative (6.2%), specificity of 100%, sensitivity of 97 6%; observed agreement = 98.2%; expected agreement = 59.9%, Kappa = 0.955 [ 95% CI = 0.925-0.974, p < 0.01 ]. CONCLUSIONS: frozen section histopathological findings showed excellent correlation with the findings by the technique in paraffin in the fragments of palpable breast tumors obtained by thick needle percutaneous core biopsy (98.2% accuracy). Therefore, in these patients, it was possible to anticipate the diagnosis, staging and the breast cancer treatment planning.

Accuracy of sonography and hysteroscopy in the diagnosis of premalignant and malignant polyps in postmenopausal women

PURPOSE: To evaluate the accuracy of sonographic endometrial thickness and hysteroscopic characteristics in predicting malignancy in postmenopausal women undergoing surgical resection of endometrial polyps. METHODS: Five hundred twenty-one (521) postmenopausal women undergoing hysteroscopic resection of endometrial polyps between January 1998 and December 2008 were studied. For each value of sonographic endometrial thickness and polyp size on hysteroscopy, the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV) and negative predictive value (NPV) were calculated in relation to the histologic diagnosis of malignancy. The best values of sensitivity and specificity for the diagnosis of malignancy were determined by the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve. RESULTS: Histologic diagnosis identified the presence of premalignancy or malignancy in 4.1% of cases. Sonographic measurement revealed a greater endometrial thickness in cases of malignant polyps when compared to benign and premalignant polyps. On surgical hysteroscopy, malignant endometrial polyps were also larger. An endometrial thickness of 13 mm showed a sensitivity of 69.6%, specificity of 68.5%, PPV of 9.3%, and NPV of 98% in predicting malignancy in endometrial polyps. Polyp measurement by hysteroscopy showed that for polyps 30 mm in size, the sensitivity was 47.8%, specificity was 66.1%, PPV was 6.1%, and NPV was 96.5% for predicting cancer. CONCLUSIONS: Sonographic endometrial thickness showed a higher level of accuracy than hysteroscopic measurement in predicting malignancy in endometrial polyps. Despite this, both techniques showed low accuracy for predicting malignancy in endometrial polyps in postmenopausal women. In suspected cases, histologic evaluation is necessary to exclude malignancy.

THE ROLE OF EARNINGS PERSISTENCE IN VALUATION ACCURACY AND THE TIME HORIZON

ABSTRACT Based on the assumption that earnings persistence has implications for both financial analysis and compensation contracts, the aim of this paper is to investigate the role of earnings persistence assuming that (i) more persistent earnings are likely to be a better input to valuation models and (ii) more persistent earnings are likely to serve as a proxy for long-term market and managerial orientation. The analysis is based on Brazilian listed firms from 1995 to 2013, and while we document strong support for the relevance of earnings persistence in financial analysis and valuation, we fail to document a significant relationship between earnings persistence and long-term value orientation. These results are sensitive to different specifications, and additional results suggest that firms' idiosyncratic risk (total risk) is relevant to explain the focus on short-term outcomes (short-termism) across firms. The main contribution of this paper is to offer empirical evidence for the relevance of accounting numbers in both valuation and contractual theories in an emergent market.

Performance of an immunochromatography test for vivax malaria in the Amazon region, Brazil

The study was carried out to evaluate the diagnostic performance of the ICT malaria Pf/PvTM test for vivax malaria diagnosis in Belém, Amazon region, Brazil. The results of blood malaria parasites examination using an immunochromatography test were compared with thick blood film (TBF) examination. It was also evaluated the performance of this test storaged at three different temperatures (25°C, 30°C, and 37°C) for 24 hours before use. Overall sensitivity of ICT Pf/PvTM was 61.8% with a specificity of 100%, positive and negative predictive value of 100% and 71.8%, respectively and accuracy of 80.6%. The test sensitivity was independent of the parasite density. This test needs to be further reviewed in order to have better performance for P. vivax malaria diagnosis.

Predictive value of serologic tests in the diagnosis and follow-up of patients with paracoccidioidomycosis

A serologic study was undertaken in a group of 43 patients with active paracoccidioidomycosis who were treated in the same form (ketoconazole), for identical periods of time (6 months), and folio wed-up for various periods posttherapy. The tests employed were agar gel immunodiffusion (AGID) and complement fixation (FC). Also studied were 50 sera from patients with proven histoplasmosis and pulmonary aspergilloma, 30 patients with culturaly proven tuberculosis as well as 92 specimens from healthy individuals, residents in the endemic area for paracoccidioidomycosis. A single lot of yeast filtrate antigen was used throughout the study. The value of each test was measured according to GALEN and GAMBINO6. Both tests were highly sensitive, 89 and 93% respectively. Regarding their specificity, the AGID was totally specific while the CF exhibited 96.6% and 97% specificity in front of tuberculosis patients and healthy individuals respectively and 82% in comparison with patients with other mycoses. The concept of predictive value, that is, the certainty one has in accepting a positive test as diagnostic of paracoccidioidomycosis, favored the AGID procedure (100%) over the CF test. The latter could sort out with 93% certainty a patient with paracoccidioidomycosis among a group of healthy individuals and with 97.5% in the case of TB patients; when the group in question was composed by individuals with other deep mycoses, such certainty was lower (81%). The above results indicate that both the AGID and the CF tests furnish results of high confidence; one should not relay, however, in the CF alone as a means to establish the specific diagnosis of paracoccidioidomycosis.

Predictive factors for response to Lamivudine in chronic hepatitis B

BACKGROUND: Lamivudine has been shown to be an efficient drug for chronic hepatitis B (CHB) treatment. AIM: To investigate predictive factors of response, using a quantitative method with high sensitivity. METHODS: We carried out a prospective trial of lamivudine in 35 patients with CHB and evidence for viral replication, regardless to their HBeAg status. Lamivudine was given for 12 months at 300 mg daily and 150 mg thereafter. Response was considered when DNA was undetectable by PCR after 6 months of treatment. Viral replication was monitored by end-point dilution PCR. Mutation associated with resistance to lamivudine was detected by DNA sequencing in non-responder patients. RESULTS: Response was observed in 23/35 patients (65.7%) but only in 5/15 (33.3%) HBeAg positive patients. Only three pre-treatment variables were associated to low response: HBeAg (p = 0.006), high viral load (DNA-VHB > 3 x 10(6) copies/ml) (p = 0.004) and liver HBcAg (p = 0.0028). YMDD mutations were detected in 7/11 non-responder patients. CONCLUSIONS: HBeAg positive patients with high viral load show a high risk for developing drug resistance. On the other hand, HBeAg negative patients show a good response to lamivudine even with high viremia.

Predictive factors of mortality in burn patients

Burn mortality statistics may be misleading unless they account properly for the many factors that can influence outcome. Such estimates are useful for patients and others making medical and financial decisions concerning their care. This study aimed to define the clinical, microbiological and laboratorial predictors of mortality with a view to focus on better burn care. Data were collected using independent variables, which were analyzed sequentially and cumulatively, employing univariate statistics and a pooled, cross-sectional, multivariate logistic regression to establish which variables better predict the probability of mortality. Survivors and non-survivors among burn patients were compared to define the predictive factors of mortality. Mortality rate was 5.0%. Higher age, larger burn area, presence of fungi in the wound, shorter length of stay and the presence of multi-resistant bacteria in the wound significantly predicted increased mortality. The authors conclude that those patients who are most apt to die are those with age > 50 years, with limited skin donor sites and those with multi-resistant bacteria and fungi in the wound.

Evaluation of dengue NS1 antigen detection for diagnosis in public health laboratories, São Paulo State, 2009

The present work evaluated the diagnostic accuracy of detection of Dengue NS1 antigen employing two NS1 assays, an immunochromatographic assay and ELISA, in the diagnostic routine of Public Health laboratories. The results obtained with NS1 assay were compared with virus isolation and, in a subpopulation of cases, they were compared with the IgM-ELISA results obtained with convalescent samples. A total of 2,321 sera samples were analyzed by one of two NS1 techniques from March to October 2009. The samples were divided into five groups: groups I, II and III included samples tested by NS1 and virus isolation, and groups IV and V included patients with a first sample tested by NS1 and a second sample tested by IgM-ELISA. Sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values, Kappa Index and Kappa Concordance were calculated. The results showed that NS1 testing in groups I, II and III had high sensitivity (98.0%, 99.5% and 99.3%), and predictive values and Kappa index between 0.9 - 1.0. Groups IV and V only had Kappa Concordance calculated, since the samples were analyzed according to the presence of NS1 antigen or IgM antibody. Concordance of 92.1% was observed when comparing the results of NS1-negative samples with IgM-ELISA. Based on the findings, it is possible to suggest that the tests for NS1 detection may be important tools for monitoring the introduction and spread of Dengue serotypes.

EVALUATION OF METHODS IN DETECTING VANCOMYCIN MIC AMONG MRSA ISOLATES AND THE CHANGES IN ACCURACY RELATED TO DIFFERENT MIC VALUES

INTRODUCTION: Methicillin-Resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) presenting reduced susceptibility to vancomycin has been associated to therapeutic failure. Some methods used by clinical laboratories may not be sufficiently accurate to detect this phenotype, compromising results and the outcome of the patient. OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the performance of methods in the detection of vancomycin MIC values among clinical isolates of MRSA. MATERIAL AND METHODS: The Vancomycin Minimal Inhibitory Concentration was determined for 75 MRSA isolates from inpatients of Mãe de Deus Hospital, Porto Alegre, Brazil. The broth microdilution (BM) was used as the gold-standard technique, as well as the following methods: E-test® strips (BioMérieux), M.I.C.E® strips (Oxoid), PROBAC® commercial panel and the automated system MicroScan® (Siemens). Besides, the agar screening test was carried out with 3 µg/mL of vancomycin. RESULTS: All isolates presented MIC ≤ 2 µg/mL for BM. E-test® had higher concordance (40%) in terms of global agreement with the gold standard, and there was not statistical difference among E-test® and broth microdilution results. PROBAC® panels presented MICs, in general, lower than the gold-standard panels (58.66% major errors), while M.I.C.E.® MICs were higher (67.99% minor errors). CONCLUSIONS: For the population of MRSA in question, E-test® presented the best performance, although with a heterogeneous accuracy, depending on MIC values.

PREDICTIVE FACTORS FOR THE PROGRESSION OF CHRONIC CHAGAS CARDIOMYOPATHY IN PATIENTS WITHOUT LEFT VENTRICULAR DYSFUNCTION

The identification of predictors for the progression of chronic Chagas cardiomyopathy (CCC) is essential to ensure adequate patient management. This study looked into a non-concurrent cohort of 165 CCC patients between 1985 and 2010 for independent predictors for CCC progression. The outcomes were worsening of the CCC scores and the onset of left ventricular dysfunction assessed by means of echo-Doppler cardiography. Patients were analyzed for social, demographic, epidemiologic, clinical and workup-related variables. A descriptive analysis was conducted, followed by survival curves based on univariate (Kaplan-Meier and Cox’s univariate model) and multivariate (Cox regression model) analysis. Patients were followed from two to 20 years (mean: 8.2). Their mean age was 44.8 years (20-77). Comparing both iterations of the study, in the second there was a statistically significant increase in the PR interval and in the QRS duration, despite a reduction in heart rates (Wilcoxon < 0.01). The predictors for CCC progression in the final regression model were male gender (HR = 2.81), Holter monitoring showing pauses equal to or greater than two seconds (HR = 3.02) increased cardiothoracic ratio (HR = 7.87) and time of use of digitalis (HR = 1.41). Patients with multiple predictive factors require stricter follow-up and treatment.