Peripheral Realism Revisited

Abstract In this article we summarize the precepts of Peripheral Realism, its place in the intellectual history of International Relations Theory, its contributions to interpreting Latin American international politics and its insights for the future. After revising the intellectual merits and tenets of the theory in the four initial sections, we show how it predicted the behavior of Latin American states under unipolarity. Finally, we review its implications for a world where China may hold economic primacy.

Prediction of genetic gain from selection indices for disease resistance in papaya hybrids

In order to select superior hybrids for the concentration of favorable alleles for resistance to papaya black spot, powdery mildew and phoma spot, 67 hybrids were evaluated in two seasons, in 2007, in a randomized block design with two replications. Genetic gains were estimated from the selection indices of Smith & Hazel, Pesek & Baker, Williams, Mulamba & Mock, with selection intensity of 22.39%, corresponding to 15 hybrids. The index of Mulamba & Mock showed gains more suitable for the five traits assessed when it was used the criterion of economic weight tentatively assigned. Together, severity of black spot on leaves and on fruits, characteristics considered most relevant to the selection of resistant materials, expressed percentage gain of -44.15%. In addition, there were gains for other characteristics, with negative predicted selective percentage gain. The results showed that the index of Mulamba & Mock is the most efficient procedure for simultaneous selection of papaya hybrid resistant to black spot, powdery mildew and phoma spot.

Assessing the effects of global warming and local social and economic conditions on the malaria transmission

OBJECTIVE: To show how a mathematical model can be used to describe and to understand the malaria transmission. METHODS: The effects on malaria transmission due to the impact of the global temperature changes and prevailing social and economic conditions in a community were assessed based on a previously presented compartmental model, which describes the overall transmission of malaria. RESULTS/CONCLUSIONS: The assessments were made from the scenarios produced by the model both in steady state and dynamic analyses. Depending on the risk level of malaria, the effects on malaria transmission can be predicted by the temperature ambient or local social and-economic conditions.

Body mass index for predicting hyperglycemia and serum lipid changes in Brazilian adolescents

OBJECTIVE: To determine the best cut-offs of body mass index for identifying alterations of blood lipids and glucose in adolescents. METHODS: A probabilistic sample including 577 adolescent students aged 12-19 years in 2003 (210 males and 367 females) from state public schools in the city of Niterói, Southeastern Brazil, was studied. The Receiver Operating Characteristic curve was used to identify the best age-adjusted BMI cut-off for predicting high levels of serum total cholesterol (>150mg/dL), LDL-C (>100mg/dL), serum triglycerides (>100mg/dL), plasma glucose (>100mg/dL) and low levels of HDL-C (< 45mg/dL). Four references were used to calculate sensitivity and specificity of BMI cut-offs: one Brazilian, one international and two American. RESULTS: The most prevalent metabolic alterations (>50%) were: high total cholesterol and low HDL-C. BMI predicted high levels of triglycerides in males, high LDL-C in females, and high total cholesterol and the occurrence of three or more metabolic alterations in both males and females (areas under the curve range: 0.59 to 0.67), with low sensitivity (57%-66%) and low specificity (58%-66%). The best BMI cut-offs for this sample (20.3 kg/m² to 21.0 kg/m²) were lower than those proposed in the references studied. CONCLUSIONS: Although BMI values lower than the International cut-offs were better predictor of some metabolic abnormalities in Brazilian adolescents, overall BMI is not a good predictor of these abnormalities in this population.

Plasma levels of tumor necrosis factor-alpha in patients with visceral leishmaniasis (Kala-Azar). Association with activity of the disease and clinical remisson following antimonial therapy

Evaluation of TNF-alpha in patients with Kala-azar has drawn increasing interest due to its regulatory role on the immune system, in addition to its cachetizing activity. The objective of this study was to examine the association between plasma levels of TNF-alpha, measured by immunore-activity (ELISA) and bioactivity (cytotoxicity assay with L-929 cells), and clinical manifestations of visceral leishmaniasis. Plasma samples from 19 patients with Kala-azar were obtained before, during and at the end of antimonial therapy. TNF-alpha determinations was done by using the cytotoxicity assay (all patients) and the enzyme-linked immunoassay (ELISA - 14 patients). A discrepancy between results obtained by ELISA and cytotoxicity assay was observed. Levels of circulating TNF-alpha, assessed by ELISA, were higher in patients than in healthy controls, and declined significantly with improvement in clinical and laboratory parameters. Plasma levels before treatment were 124.7 ± 93.3 pg/ml (mean ± SD) and were higher than at the end of therapy 13.9 ± 25.1 pg/ml (mean ± SD) (p = 0.001). In contrast, plasma levels of TNF-alpha evaluated by cytotoxicity assay did not follow a predicted course during follow-up. Lysis, in this case, might be not totally attributed to TNF-alpha. The discrepancy might be attributed to the presence of factor(s) known to influence the release and activity of TNF-alpha.

Predictive factors of mortality in burn patients

Burn mortality statistics may be misleading unless they account properly for the many factors that can influence outcome. Such estimates are useful for patients and others making medical and financial decisions concerning their care. This study aimed to define the clinical, microbiological and laboratorial predictors of mortality with a view to focus on better burn care. Data were collected using independent variables, which were analyzed sequentially and cumulatively, employing univariate statistics and a pooled, cross-sectional, multivariate logistic regression to establish which variables better predict the probability of mortality. Survivors and non-survivors among burn patients were compared to define the predictive factors of mortality. Mortality rate was 5.0%. Higher age, larger burn area, presence of fungi in the wound, shorter length of stay and the presence of multi-resistant bacteria in the wound significantly predicted increased mortality. The authors conclude that those patients who are most apt to die are those with age > 50 years, with limited skin donor sites and those with multi-resistant bacteria and fungi in the wound.

A SARIMA forecasting model to predict the number of cases of dengue in Campinas, State of São Paulo, Brazil

INTRODUCTION: Forecasting dengue cases in a population by using time-series models can provide useful information that can be used to facilitate the planning of public health interventions. The objective of this article was to develop a forecasting model for dengue incidence in Campinas, southeast Brazil, considering the Box-Jenkins modeling approach. METHODS: The forecasting model for dengue incidence was performed with R software using the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model. We fitted a model based on the reported monthly incidence of dengue from 1998 to 2008, and we validated the model using the data collected between January and December of 2009. RESULTS: SARIMA (2,1,2) (1,1,1)12 was the model with the best fit for data. This model indicated that the number of dengue cases in a given month can be estimated by the number of dengue cases occurring one, two and twelve months prior. The predicted values for 2009 are relatively close to the observed values. CONCLUSIONS: The results of this article indicate that SARIMA models are useful tools for monitoring dengue incidence. We also observe that the SARIMA model is capable of representing with relative precision the number of cases in a next year.

Persistent asthma in adults: comparison of high resolution computed tomography of the lungs after one year of follow-up

OBJECTIVE: The aims of this study were to evaluate the role of high resolution computed tomography of the torax in detecting abnormalities in chronic asthmatic patients and to determine the behavior of these lesions after at least one year. METHOD: Fourteen persistent asthmatic patients with a mean forced expiratory volume in 1-second that was 63% of predicted and a mean forced expiratory volume in 1-second /forced vital capacity of 60% had two high resolution computed tomographys separated by an interval of at least one year. RESULTS: All 14 patients had abnormalities on both scans. The most common abnormality was bronchial wall thickening, which was present in all patients on both computed tomographys. Bronchiectasis was suggested on the first computed tomography in 5 of the 14 (36%) patients, but on follow-up, the bronchial dilatation had disappeared in 2 and diminished in a third. Only one patient had any emphysematous changes; a minimal persistent area of paraseptal emphysema was present on both scans. In 3 patients, a "mosaic" appearance was observed on the first scan, and this persisted on the follow-up computed tomography. Two patients had persistent areas of mucoid impaction. In a third patient, mucus plugging was detected only on the second computed tomography. CONCLUSIONS: We conclude that there are many abnormalities on the high resolution computed tomography of patients with persistent asthma. Changes suggestive of bronchiectasis, namely bronchial dilatation, frequently resolve spontaneously. Therefore, the diagnosis of bronchiectasis by high resolution computed tomography in asthmatic patients must be made with caution, since bronchial dilatation can be reversible or can represent false dilatation. Nonsmoking chronic asthmatic subjects in this study had no evidence of centrilobular or panacinar emphysema.

Growth and puberty after treatment for acute lymphoblastic leukemia

Over the last 20 years, after combining treatment of chemotherapy and radiotherapy, there has been an improvement in the survival rate of acute lymphoblastic leukemia patients, with a current cure rate of around 70%. Children with the disease have been enrolled into international treatment protocols designed to improve survival and minimize the serious irreversible late effects. Our oncology unit uses the international protocol: GBTLI LLA-85 and 90, with the drugs methotrexate, cytosine, arabinoside, dexamethasone, and radiotherapy. However, these treatments can cause gonadal damage and growth impairment. PATIENTS AND METHOD: The authors analyzed 20 children off therapy in order to determine the role of the various doses of radiotherapy regarding endocrinological alterations. They were divided into 3 groups according to central nervous system prophylaxis: Group A underwent chemotherapy, group B underwent chemotherapy plus radiotherapy (18 Gy), and group C underwent chemotherapy plus radiotherapy (24 Gy). Serum concentrations of LH, FSH, GH, and testosterone were determined. Imaging studies included bone age, pelvic ultrasound and scrotum, and skull magnetic resonance imaging. RESULTS: Nine of the patients who received radiotherapy had decreased pituitary volume. There was a significant difference in the response to GH and loss of predicted final stature (Bayley-Pinneau) between the 2 irradiated groups and the group that was not irradiated, but there was no difference regarding the radiation doses used (18 or 24 Gy). The final predicted height (Bayley-Pinneau) was significantly less (P = 0.0071) in both groups treated with radiotherapy. Two girls had precocious puberty, and 1 boy with delayed puberty presented calcification of the epididymis. CONCLUSION: Radiotherapy was been responsible for late side effects, especially related to growth and puberty.

New pteridophyte records for the territory of Amapá, Brazil.

Eighteen Pteridophyte taxa in 15 genera are reported as new for the Territory of Amapá, Brazil. The collections area a result of a recent Projeto Flora Amazônica/Programa Flora expedition to that region, and update previous lists of taxa for Amapá.In 1975, Tryon and Conant publised a checklist of the ferns of the Brazilian Amazônia reporting 84 taxa for the Territory of Amapá. The paucity of records for Amapá reflects, at least in part, the amount of botanical exploration. The most complete list of taxa occurring in the Territory is an unpublished list of collection compiled by J. M. Pires. This compilation reports 118 taxas for the Territory of Amapá. The following list is intended to update both the Pires compilation an the Tryon and Conant checklist for the Territor. These records are the result of a Projeto Flora Amazônica/Programa Flora expedition to the region in the latter part of 1979. Species were included in this list is not reportes in the compilation of colections for Amapá, or listed as specifically occurrin in Amapá in the monographs and revisions consulted for listed as specifically occurring in Amapá in the monograohs and revisions consulted for identification (Evans, 1969; Kramer, 1957, 1978; de la Sota, 1960; Lellinger, 1972; Maxon & Morton, 1938; Scamman, 1960, Smith, 1971; Tryon, 1941, 1964).This list reports 18 taxa in 15 genera, increasing the number of taxa in Amapá from the 118 listed by Pires to 136. Most of the taxa reported here might have been predicted to occur in Amapá on the basis of their distribution records for surrounding regions.Each species is followed by a collection number. The collection number is that of D. F. Austin, C. E. Nauman, R. S. Secco, C. Rosario, and M. R. Santos except for four collections in which R. S. Secco was absent and B. V. Rabelo was present, and these are indicated after the collection number. Specimens are deposited in the herbaria of the Museu Paraense Emílio Goeldi, Belém, Brazil and the United States. The family system is essentially that used by Tyron and Conant.

Leaf herbivory on three tree species in a monodominant and two other Terra firme forests on Maracá Island, Brazil

The aim of this study was to test the hypothesis that the monodominant non-pioneer Peltogyne gracilipes, typically does not suffer density-dependent herbivory (Janzen-Connell model). Two components of intraspecific variation in leaf herbivory were measured: 1) the variation between individuals in the population at the same time and 2) the temporal variation in rates of damage to each individual. The study was carried out on Maracá Island, Roraima, Brazil in three plots (50 m χ 50 m) in each of three forest types: Peltogyne-rich forest (PRF), Peltogyne-poor forest (PPF), and forest without Peltogyne (FWP). Two other non-pioneer species (Ecclinusa guianensis and Pradosia surinamensis) were chosen for comparison because they were fairly abundant and their seedlings could be readily identified. The values of leaf area removed by herbivores of trees and seedlings of the three study species were in the range reported for other tropical tree species (2-16%, standing damage). There were no differences within species between forests. However, there was a significant difference among species but this was not correlated with seedling density. Peltogyne seedlings showed no evidence of density-dependent herbivory as predicted by the Janzen-Connell model despite the fact that adult trees were observed to suffer a mass defoliation in April 1992. This result suggests that Peltogyne may be dominant partly due to escape from herbivory in the early stages of its life although it may suffer occasional mass defoliation as an adult.

Biomass accumulation, photochemical efficiency of photosystem II, nutrient contents and nitrate reductase activity in young rosewood plants (Aniba rosaeodora Ducke) submitted to different NO3-:NH4+ ratios

The rosewood (Aniba rosaeodora Ducke) is a native tree species of Amazon rainforest growing naturally in acidic forest soils with reduced redox potential. However, this species can also been found growing in forest gaps containing oxide soils. Variations in the forms of mineral nitrogen (NO3- or NH4+) may be predicted in these different edaphic conditions. Considering that possibility, an experiment was carried out to analyze the effects of different NO3-:NH4+ ratios on the growth performance, mineral composition, chloroplastid pigment contents, photochemical efficiency photosystem II (PSII), and nitrate redutase activity (RN, E.C.1.6.6.1) on A. rosaeodora seedlings. Nine-month-old seedlings were grown in pots with a washed sand capacity of 7.5 kg and submitted to different NO3-:NH4+ ratios (T1 = 0:100%, T2 = 25:75%, T3 = 50:50%, T4 = 75:25%, and T5 = 100:0%). The lowest relative growth rate was observed when the NO3-:NH4+ ratio was equal to 0:100%. In general, high concentrations of NO3- rather than NH4+ favored a greater nutrient accumulation in different parts of the plant. For the chloroplastid pigment, the highest Chl a, Chl b, Chl tot, Chl a/b and Chl tot/Cx+c contents were found in the treatment with 75:25% of NO3-:NH4+, and for Chl b and Cx+c it was observed no difference. In addition, there was a higher photochemical efficiency of PSII (Fv/Fm) when high NO3- concentrations were used. A linear and positive response for the nitrate reductase activity was recorded when the nitrate content increased on the culture substrate. Our results suggest that A. rosaeodora seedlings have a better growth performance when the NO3- concentrations in the culture substrate were higher than the NH4+ concentrations.

Close relationship between diameters at 30cm height and at breast height (DBH)

This paper proposes the establishment of a second diameter measuring standard at 30cm shoot extension ('diam30') as input variable for allometric biomass estimation of small and mid-sized plant shoots. This diameter standard is better suited than the diameter at breast height (DBH, i.e. diameter at 1.30m shoot extension) for adequate characterization of plant dimensions in low bushy vegetation or in primary forest undergrowth. The relationships between both diameter standards are established based on a dataset of 8645 tree, liana and palm shoots in secondary and primary forests of central Amazonia (ranging from 1-150mm dbh). Dbh can be predicted from the diam(30) with high precision, the error introduced by diameter transformation is only 2-3% for trees and palms, and 5% for lianas. This is well acceptable for most field study purposes. Relationships deviate slightly from linearity and differ between growth forms. Relationships were markedly similar for different vegetation types (low secondary regrowth vs. primary forests), soils, and selected genera or species. This points to a general validity and applicability of diameter transformations for other field studies. This study provides researchers with a tool for the allometric estimation of biomass in low or structurally heterogeneous vegetation. Rather than applying a uniform diameter standard, the measuring position which best represents the respective plant can be decided on shoot-by-shoot. Plant diameters measured at 30cm height can be transformed to dbh for subsequent allometric biomass estimation. We recommend the use of these diameter transformations only for plants extending well beyond the theoretical minimum shoot length (i.e., >2m height). This study also prepares the ground for the comparability and compatability of future allometric equations specifically developed for small- to mid-sized vegetation components (i.e., bushes, undergrowth) which are based on the diam(30) measuring standard.