Sensitivity of the Amazon biome to high resolution climate change projections

ABSTRACT: Despite the reduction in deforestation rate in recent years, the impact of global warming by itself can cause changes in vegetation cover. The objective of this work was to investigate the possible changes on the major Brazilian biome, the Amazon Rainforest, under different climate change scenarios. The dynamic vegetation models may simulate changes in vegetation distribution and the biogeochemical processes due to climate change. Initially, the Inland dynamic vegetation model was forced with initial and boundary conditions provided by CFSR and the Eta regional climate model driven by the historical simulation of HadGEM2-ES. These simulations were validated using the Santarém tower data. In the second part, we assess the impact of a future climate change on the Amazon biome by applying the Inland model forced with regional climate change projections. The projections show that some areas of rainforest in the Amazon region are replaced by deciduous forest type and grassland in RCP4.5 scenario and only by grassland in RCP8.5 scenario at the end of this century. The model indicates a reduction of approximately 9% in the area of tropical forest in RCP4.5 scenario and a further reduction in the RCP8.5 scenario of about 50% in the eastern region of Amazon. Although the increase of CO2 atmospheric concentration may favour the growth of trees, the projections of Eta-HadGEM2-ES show increase of temperature and reduction of rainfall in the Amazon region, which caused the forest degradation in these simulations.

Applicability of Two International Risk Scores in Cardiac Surgery in a Reference Center in Brazil

Background:The applicability of international risk scores in heart surgery (HS) is not well defined in centers outside of North America and Europe.Objective:To evaluate the capacity of the Parsonnet Bernstein 2000 (BP) and EuroSCORE (ES) in predicting in-hospital mortality (IHM) in patients undergoing HS at a reference hospital in Brazil and to identify risk predictors (RP).Methods:Retrospective cohort study of 1,065 patients, with 60.3% patients underwent coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG), 32.7%, valve surgery and 7.0%, CABG combined with valve surgery. Additive and logistic scores models, the area under the ROC (Receiver Operating Characteristic) curve (AUC) and the standardized mortality ratio (SMR) were calculated. Multivariate logistic regression was performed to identify the RP.Results:Overall mortality was 7.8%. The baseline characteristics of the patients were significantly different in relation to BP and ES. AUCs of the logistic and additive BP were 0.72 (95% CI, from 0.66 to 0.78 p = 0.74), and of ES they were 0.73 (95% CI; 0.67 to 0.79 p = 0.80). The calculation of the SMR in BP was 1.59 (95% CI; 1.27 to 1.99) and in ES, 1.43 (95% CI; 1.14 to 1.79). Seven RP of IHM were identified: age, serum creatinine > 2.26 mg/dL, active endocarditis, systolic pulmonary arterial pressure > 60 mmHg, one or more previous HS, CABG combined with valve surgery and diabetes mellitus.Conclusion:Local scores, based on the real situation of local populations, must be developed for better assessment of risk in cardiac surgery.

Comparison of ACUITY and CRUSADE Scores in Predicting Major Bleeding during Acute Coronary Syndrome

Background:The ACUITY and CRUSADE scores are validated models for prediction of major bleeding events in acute coronary syndrome (ACS). However, the comparative performances of these scores are not known.Objective:To compare the accuracy of ACUITY and CRUSADE in predicting major bleeding events during ACS.Methods:This study included 519 patients consecutively admitted for unstable angina, non-ST-elevation or ST-elevation myocardial infarction. The scores were calculated based on admission data. We considered major bleeding events during hospitalization and not related to cardiac surgery, according to the Bleeding Academic Research Consortium (BARC) criteria (type 3 or 5: hemodynamic instability, need for transfusion, drop in hemoglobin ≥ 3 g, and intracranial, intraocular or fatal bleeding).Results:Major bleeding was observed in 31 patients (23 caused by femoral puncture, 5 digestive, 3 in other sites), an incidence of 6%. While both scores were associated with bleeding, ACUITY demonstrated better C-statistics (0.73, 95% CI = 0.63 - 0.82) as compared with CRUSADE (0.62, 95% CI = 0.53 - 0.71; p = 0.04). The best performance of ACUITY was also reflected by a net reclassification improvement of + 0.19 (p = 0.02) over CRUSADE’s definition of low or high risk. Exploratory analysis suggested that the presence of the variables ‘age’ and ‘type of ACS’ in ACUITY was the main reason for its superiority.Conclusion:The ACUITY Score is a better predictor of major bleeding when compared with the CRUSADE Score in patients hospitalized for ACS.

Performance of Surgical Risk Scores to Predict Mortality after Transcatheter Aortic Valve Implantation

AbstractBackground:Predicting mortality in patients undergoing transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI) remains a challenge.Objectives:To evaluate the performance of 5 risk scores for cardiac surgery in predicting the 30-day mortality among patients of the Brazilian Registry of TAVI.Methods:The Brazilian Multicenter Registry prospectively enrolled 418 patients undergoing TAVI in 18 centers between 2008 and 2013. The 30-day mortality risk was calculated using the following surgical scores: the logistic EuroSCORE I (ESI), EuroSCORE II (ESII), Society of Thoracic Surgeons (STS) score, Ambler score (AS) and Guaragna score (GS). The performance of the risk scores was evaluated in terms of their calibration (Hosmer–Lemeshow test) and discrimination [area under the receiver–operating characteristic curve (AUC)].Results:The mean age was 81.5 ± 7.7 years. The CoreValve (Medtronic) was used in 86.1% of the cohort, and the transfemoral approach was used in 96.2%. The observed 30-day mortality was 9.1%. The 30-day mortality predicted by the scores was as follows: ESI, 20.2 ± 13.8%; ESII, 6.5 ± 13.8%; STS score, 14.7 ± 4.4%; AS, 7.0 ± 3.8%; GS, 17.3 ± 10.8%. Using AUC, none of the tested scores could accurately predict the 30-day mortality. AUC for the scores was as follows: 0.58 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.49 to 0.68, p = 0.09] for ESI; 0.54 (95% CI: 0.44 to 0.64, p = 0.42) for ESII; 0.57 (95% CI: 0.47 to 0.67, p = 0.16) for AS; 0.48 (95% IC: 0.38 to 0.57, p = 0.68) for STS score; and 0.52 (95% CI: 0.42 to 0.62, p = 0.64) for GS. The Hosmer–Lemeshow test indicated acceptable calibration for all scores (p > 0.05).Conclusions:In this real world Brazilian registry, the surgical risk scores were inaccurate in predicting mortality after TAVI. Risk models specifically developed for TAVI are required.

Species richness, relative abundance, and habitat of reproduction of terrestrial frogs in the Triângulo Mineiro region, Cerrado biome, southeastern Brazil

Based on field observations and pitfall sampling, we determined the species richness, relative abundance, and reproductive habitat of terrestrial frogs in three municipalities in the Triângulo Mineiro region, south Cerrado biome, in southeastern Brazil. We found thirty-two species of terrestrial frogs, belonging to the families Brachycephalidae, Bufonidae, Cycloramphidae, Dendrobatidae, Leiuperidae, Leptodactylidae and Microhylidae. Most of the species were found in open areas and reproduced in human-generated environments, such as artificial lakes (10 species) and ponds (14 species). Dominance was high, with Physalaemus cuvieri Fitzinger, 1826 (Leiuperidae) representing 48% of sampled frogs. A larger number of individuals was captured in the wet season, when most of the species were reproducing. Compared to other areas of Cerrado biome, the Triângulo Mineiro sites presented a larger number of species, which may be attributed to the larger sampled area and greater sampling effort, lower altitude and presence of human generated habitats. The richness of terrestrial frogs was also larger than that in some forested localities in southeastern Brazil, indicating that the number of species cannot be explained only by precipitation and type of vegetation cover. The greater abundance of individuals during the wet season may be related to a greater movement of adults to breeding sites and to juvenile recruitment/dispersion. The heterogeneity of environments in the Cerrado biome, including its several isolated highlands, contributes to its high (local and regional) diversity of frogs.

Comparative dietary analysis of Eurycheilichthys pantherinus and Pareiorhaphis hystrix: two Loricariidae species (Ostariophysi, Siluriformes) from Campos Sulinos biome, southern Brazil

This work was carried out in Marco river, São José dos Ausentes municipality, state of Rio Grande do Sul, southern Brazil. This region is located within the Campos Sulinos biome, an area of great biological importance due to its high diversity and endemism of fish. The feeding habits and food overlap between Eurycheilichthys pantherinus (Reis & Schaefer, 1992) (n=108) and Pareiorhaphis hystrix Pereira & Reis, 2002 (n=60) are described. Monthly samples were obtained between September 2000 and July 2001 with dipnets using the kick sampling technique. Stomach contents were analyzed based on frequency of occurrence, volumetric frequency and index of alimentary importance. The level of dietary specialization and food overlap were determined by the Levins measure and the Morisita index, respectively. Eurycheilichthys pantherinus fed mainly on immature aquatic insects, such as Dipterans and Ephemeropterans, and was classified as insectivore. Pareiorhaphis hystrix fed mainly on detritus associated with small amounts of aquatic insects, and was classified as detritivore. Species are clearly segregated by the use of food resources in Marco River. Their diets did not overlap and the differences observed in their feeding habits probably contribute for their coexistence.

Diversity of social wasps (Hymenoptera, Vespidae) in Cerrado biome of the southern of the state of Minas Gerais, Brazil

An inventory of social wasps in Cerrado biome of the southern of the state of Minas Gerais was performed. A comparison between field and Riparian Forest areas was made in relation to species richness; correlations between diversity, sample methods and environmental factors were conducted. A total of 32 species was registered and Polybia fastidiosuscula de Saussure, 1854 was the most abundant species. The higher richness was in the Cerrado Field, as well as the highest diversity index. The temperature and rainfall had significant correlation with species richness and a significant variation in richness between dry and wet seasons was observed. Polybia fastidiosuscula was more abundant in the Riparian Forest during the dry season and in the Cerrado Field during wet season. The study area showed a great diversity of social wasps, with record both widely distributed species such as rare species, which indicates the quality and potential area for future studies.

New species of Rhaphiptera (Coleoptera, Cerambycidae) from the Caatinga biome

A new species of Cerambycidae (Lamiinae) is described and illustrated from the Brazilian semi-arid of northeastern Brazil. Rhaphiptera delmari sp. nov. is recorded from Morro do Chapéu municipality in the Bahia State.

A new species of Andocaeculus (Acari, Caeculidae) from the Pampa biome, southern Brazil

A new caeculid species Andocaeculus caioi sp. nov. is described from Pampa biome in south Brazil. The species of this family are usually large and strong sclerotized mites with robust and spinulose legs I and II. Until now records of species for South America were known only from Chile and Argentina.

Paleopharmacology and pollen: theory, method, and application

Parasitism was a universal human condition. Because of this, people developed herbal medicines to treat parasites as part of their pharmacopoeias. We propose that it is possible to recover evidence of medicinal plants from archaeological sites and link their use to specific health conditions. This is a multidisciplinary approach that must involve at least paleoethnobotanists, archaeoparasitologists, paleopathologists, and pharmacologists.

Can larval lacewings Chrysoperla externa (Hagen): (Neuroptera, Chrysopidae) be reared on pollen?

The aim of this study was to verify the viability of exclusive use of elephant grass pollen, Pennisetum purpureum (Schum), to feed larvae of the lacewing Chrysoperla externa (Hagen, 1861). The insects were kept at 24ºC and the duration and survival rate of each instar and the larval and pupal phases were recorded. The diet provided complete development of the larvae. The average duration of the first and second instars was the same (6.9 days), while the third instar lasted an average of 10.0 days and the pupal phase 13.2 days. The average survival of the larvae was above 80% for the first, second and third instars, and 70.0% and 33.3% for the larval and pupal phase, respectively. These results indicate that the exclusive use of elephant grass pollen can provide complete development of the immature stages of this predator.

Pollen storages in nests of bees of the genera Partamona, Scaura and Trigona (Hymenoptera, Apidae)

Bees and angiosperms established a mutualistic relationship along the evolutionary time. The aim of this study is to contribute for the understanding of this relation analyzing pollen stored by stingless bees colonies distributed along the Rio Negro. Fourteen species of Meliponini from the genera Partamona, Scaura, and Trigona were studied with regard to the content of pollen pots. The pollen material was removed from the pollen pots, homogenized, and prepared according to the usual acetolysis technique. The overlap of the trophic niche and the grouping of species by similarity of niches was calculated. The identification revealed 78 pollen types belonging to 36 families, being 37 types attractive and 16 considered as promoters of a temporary specialization event. With the results, it was possible to indicate a list of important plants for meliponiculture in the Amazon.

Termite assemblages in five semideciduous Atlantic Forest fragments in the northern coastland limit of the biome

Termites are abundant organisms in tropical ecosystems and strongly influence the litter decomposition and soil formation. Despite their importance, few studies about their assemblage structures have been made in Brazilian Atlantic Forest fragments, especially in the area located north of the São Francisco River. This study aims to analyze the assemblage composition of five Atlantic Forest fragments located in the northern biome limit along the Brazilian coast. A standardized sampling protocol of termites was applied in each fragment. Thirty-three termite species belonging to twenty genera and three families were found in the forest fragments. The wood-feeder group was dominant both concerning to species richness and number of encounters in all areas. In sites northern to 7°S, there is an evident simplification of the termite assemblage composition regarding species richness and number of encounters by feeding group. This fact is apparently due to a higher sandy level in soils and to semideciduous character of the vegetation in the northern fragments. Thus, even on the north of São Francisco River, termite biodiversity is heterogeneously spread with highest density of species in the portion between 07°S and São Francisco River mouth (10°29'S).

Nesting and use of pollen resources by Tetrapedia diversipes Klug (Apidae) in Atlantic Forest areas (Rio de Janeiro, Brazil) in different stages of regeneration

Nesting and use of pollen resources by Tetrapedia diversipes Klug (Apidae) in Atlantic Forest areas (Rio de Janeiro, Brazil) in different stages of regeneration. The nesting in trap-nests and use of pollen sources in larval food by Tetrapedia diversipes Klug, 1810 (Apidae) was compared between regenerating areas of Atlantic Forest. The study was conducted between April 2008 and October 2009 at União Biological Reserve, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. T. diversipes nested in 66 trap-nests and showed a peak of nesting during the months of highest rainfall. The most frequent pollen type in brood cells during the wet season was Dalechampia sp. 1. During the dry season, the type Ludwigia sp. was the most frequent, followed by Dalechampia sp. 2. The high frequency of Dalechampia and Ludwigia species in the larval food, observed in both habitats and in the two seasons could be considered relevant for T. diversipes, suggesting highly selective diet based primarily on two plant species unrelated, but similar in size of pollen grains.

Mosquito community composition in dynamic landscapes from the Atlantic Forest biome (Diptera, Culicidae)

Mosquito community composition in dynamic landscapes from the Atlantic Forest biome (Diptera, Culicidae). Considering that some species of Culicidae are vectors of pathogens, both the knowledge of the diversity of the mosquito fauna and how some environment factors influence in it, are important subjects. In order to address the composition of Culicidae species in a forest reserve in southern Atlantic Forest, we compared biotic and abiotic environmental determinants and how they were associated with the occurrence of species between sunset and sunrise. The level of conservation of the area was also considered. The investigation was carried out at Reserva Natural do Morro da Mina, in Antonina, state of Paraná, Brazil. We performed sixteen mosquito collections employing Shannon traps at three-hour intervals, from July 2008 to June 2009. The characterization of the area was determined using ecological indices of diversity, evenness, dominance and similarity. We compared the frequency of specimens with abiotic variables, i.e., temperature, relative humidity and pluviosity. Seven thousand four hundred ten mosquito females were captured. They belong to 48 species of 12 genera. The most abundant genera were Anopheles, Culex, Coquillettidia, Aedes and Runchomyia. Among the species, the most abundant was Anopheles cruzii, the primary vector of Plasmodium spp. in the Atlantic Forest. Results of the analyses showed that the abiotic variables we tested did not influence the occurrence of species, although certain values suggested that there was an optimum range for the occurrence of culicid species. It was possible to detect the presence of species of Culicidae with different epidemiologic profiles and habitat preference.