Time-series forecasting of pollutant concentration levels using particle swarm optimization and artificial neural networks

This study evaluates the application of an intelligent hybrid system for time-series forecasting of atmospheric pollutant concentration levels. The proposed method consists of an artificial neural network combined with a particle swarm optimization algorithm. The method not only searches relevant time lags for the correct characterization of the time series, but also determines the best neural network architecture. An experimental analysis is performed using four real time series and the results are shown in terms of six performance measures. The experimental results demonstrate that the proposed methodology achieves a fair prediction of the presented pollutant time series by using compact networks.

Kinematic analysis and modelling of biped locomotion systems

This paper presents the kinematic study of robotic biped locomotion systems. The main purpose is to determine the kinematic characteristics and the system performance during walking. For that objective, the prescribed motion of the biped is completely characterised in terms of five locomotion variables: step length, hip height, maximum hip ripple, maximum foot clearance and link lengths. In this work, we propose four methods to quantitatively measure the performance of the walking robot: energy analysis, perturbation analysis, lowpass frequency response and locomobility measure. These performance measures are discussed and compared in determining the robustness and effectiveness of the resulting locomotion.

Artificial neural network models for predicting 1-year mortality in elderly patients with intertrochanteric fractures in China

The mortality rate of older patients with intertrochanteric fractures has been increasing with the aging of populations in China. The purpose of this study was: 1) to develop an artificial neural network (ANN) using clinical information to predict the 1-year mortality of elderly patients with intertrochanteric fractures, and 2) to compare the ANN's predictive ability with that of logistic regression models. The ANN model was tested against actual outcomes of an intertrochanteric femoral fracture database in China. The ANN model was generated with eight clinical inputs and a single output. ANN's performance was compared with a logistic regression model created with the same inputs in terms of accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, and discriminability. The study population was composed of 2150 patients (679 males and 1471 females): 1432 in the training group and 718 new patients in the testing group. The ANN model that had eight neurons in the hidden layer had the highest accuracies among the four ANN models: 92.46 and 85.79% in both training and testing datasets, respectively. The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves of the automatically selected ANN model for both datasets were 0.901 (95%CI=0.814-0.988) and 0.869 (95%CI=0.748-0.990), higher than the 0.745 (95%CI=0.612-0.879) and 0.728 (95%CI=0.595-0.862) of the logistic regression model. The ANN model can be used for predicting 1-year mortality in elderly patients with intertrochanteric fractures. It outperformed a logistic regression on multiple performance measures when given the same variables.

Performance of a Brazilian population on the test of functional health literacy in adults

OBJECTIVE: To analyze the scoring obtained by an instrument, which evaluates the ability to read and understand items in the health care setting, according to education and age. METHODS: The short version of the Test of Functional Health Literacy in Adults was administered to 312 healthy participants of different ages and years of schooling. The study was conducted between 2006 and 2007, in the city of São Paulo, Southeastern Brazil. The test includes actual materials such as pill bottles and appointment slips and measures reading comprehension, assessing the ability to read and correctly pronounce a list of words and understand both prose passages and numerical information. Pearson partial correlations and a multiple regression model were used to verify the association between its scores and education and age. RESULTS: The mean age of the sample was 47.3 years(sd=16.8) and the mean education was 9.7 years(sd=5; range: 1 - 17). A total of 32.4% of the sample showed literacy/numeracy deficits, scoring in the inadequate and marginal functional health literacy ranges. Among the elderly (65 years or older) this rate increased to 51.6%. There was a positive correlation between schooling and scores (r=0.74; p<0.01) and a negative correlation between age and the scores (r=-0.259; p<0.01). The correlation between the scores and age was not significant when the effects of education were held constant (rp=-0.031, p=0.584). A significant association (B=3.877, Beta =0.733; p<0.001) was found between schooling and scores. Age was not a significant predictor in this model (B=-0.035, Beta=-0.22; p=0.584). CONCLUSIONS: The short version of the Test of Functional Health Literacy in Adults was a suitable tool to assess health literacy in the study population. The high number of individuals classified as functional illiterates in this test highlights the importance of special assistance to help them properly understand directions for healthcare.

Validity of self-reported hearing loss in adults: performance of three single questions

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the validity of three single questions used to assess self-reported hearing loss as compared to pure-tone audiometry in an adult population. METHODS: A validity study was performed with a random sub-sample of 188 subjects aged 30 to 65 years, drawn from the fourth wave of a population-based cohort study carried out in Salvador, Northeastern Brazil. Data were collected in household visits using questionnaires. Three questions were used to separately assess self-reported hearing loss: Q1, "Do you feel you have a hearing loss?"; Q2, "In general, would you say your hearing is 'excellent,' 'very good,' 'good,' 'fair,' 'poor'?"; Q3, "Currently, do you think you can hear 'the same as before', 'less than before only in the right ear', 'less than before only in the left ear', 'less than before in both ears'?". Measures of accuracy were estimated through seven measures including Youden index. Responses to each question were compared to the results of pure-tone audiometry to estimate accuracy measures. RESULTS: The estimated sensitivity and specificity were 79.6%, 77.4% for Q1; 66.9%, 85.1% for Q2; and 81.5%, 76.4% for Q3, respectively. The Youden index ranged from 51.9% (Q2) to 57.0% (Q1) and 57.9% (Q3). CONCLUSIONS: Each of all three questions provides responses accurate enough to support their use to assess self-reported hearing loss in epidemiological studies with adult populations when pure-tone audiometry is not feasible.

Self-reported hearing performance in workers exposed to solvents

OBJECTIVE: To compare hearing performance relating to the peripheral and central auditory system between solvent-exposed and non-exposed workers. METHODS: Forty-eight workers exposed to a mixture of solvents and 48 non-exposed control subjects of matched age, gender and educational level were selected to participate in the study. The evaluation procedures included: pure-tone audiometry (500 - 8,000 Hz), to investigate the peripheral auditory system; the Random Gap Detection test, to assess the central auditory system; and the Amsterdam Inventory for Auditory Disability and Handicap, to investigate subjects' self-reported hearing performance in daily-life activities. A Student t test and analyses of covariance (ANCOVA) were computed to determine possible significant differences between solvent-exposed and non-exposed subjects for the hearing level, Random Gap Detection test and Amsterdam Inventory for Auditory Disability and Handicap. Pearson correlations among the three measures were also calculated. RESULTS: Solvent-exposed subjects exhibited significantly poorer hearing thresholds for the right ear than non-exposed subjects. Also, solvent-exposed subjects exhibited poorer results for the Random Gap Detection test and self-reported poorer listening performance than non-exposed subjects. Results of the Amsterdam Inventory for Auditory Disability and Handicap were significantly correlated with the binaural average of subject pure-tone thresholds and Random Gap Detection test performance. CONCLUSIONS: Solvent exposure is associated with poorer hearing performance in daily life activities that relate to the function of the peripheral and central auditory system.

Assessing the performance of macroinvertebrate metrics in the Challhuaco-Ñireco System (Northern Patagonia, Argentina)

ABSTRACT Seven sites were examined in the Challhuaco-Ñireco system, located in the reserve of the Nahuel Huapi National Park, however part of the catchment is urbanized, being San Carlos de Bariloche (150,000 inhabitants) placed in the lower part of the basin. Physico-chemical variables were measured and benthic macroinvertebrates were collected during three consecutive years at seven sites from the headwater to the river outlet. Sites near the source of the river were characterised by Plecoptera, Ephemeroptera, Trichoptera and Diptera, whereas sites close to the river mouth were dominated by Diptera, Oligochaeta and Mollusca. Regarding functional feeding groups, collector-gatherers were dominant at all sites and this pattern was consistent among years. Ordination Analysis (RDA) revealed that species assemblages distribution responded to the climatic and topographic gradient (temperature and elevation), but also were associated with variables related to human impact (conductivity, nitrate and phosphate contents). Species assemblages at headwaters were mostly represented by sensitive insects, whereas tolerant taxa such as Tubificidae, Lumbriculidae, Chironomidae and crustacean Aegla sp. were dominant at urbanised sites. Regarding macroinvertebrate metrics employed, total richness, EPT taxa, Shannon diversity index and Biotic Monitoring Patagonian Stream index resulted fairly consistent and evidenced different levels of disturbances at the stream, meaning that this measures are suitable for evaluation of the status of Patagonian mountain streams.

Morphological, pedigree, and molecular distances and their association with hybrid wheat performance

The objectives of this work were to estimate the genetic distance among wheat genotypes using morphological, pedigree, molecular, and combined morphological and molecular measures, to determine the correlations between these measures, and to evaluate the combining ability of the genotypes. Three generations and two planting designs were studied. Six wheat genotypes were crossed using a diallel design. The F1, F2 and F3generations were evaluated in the field, in the crop seasons of 2003, 2004 and 2005, under spaced plant and full-row planting designs. The estimated general and specific combining abilities of tested hybrids were influenced both by the generation and the planting design. The correlation coefficients among the distance measures and between these measures and genotype performances of different generations for the two planting designs were low to moderate. In order to obtain a more precise estimate of the genetic distance among cultivars and its association with the hybrid performance, more than one generation, planting design, and genetic distance estimation technique should be employed.

Holstein white coat color and performance: phenotypic, genetic and environmental correlations

Correlations of measures of percentages of white coat color, five measures of production and two measures of reproduction were obtained from 4293 first lactation Holsteins from eight Florida dairy farms. Percentages of white coat color were analyzed as recorded and transformed by an extension of Box-Cox procedures. Statistical analyses were by derivative-free restricted maximum likelihood (DFREML) with an animal model. Phenotypic and genetic correlations of white percentage (not transformed) were with milk yield, 0.047 and 0.097; fat yield, 0.002 and 0.004; fat percentage, -0.047 and -0.090; protein yield, 0.024 and 0.048; protein percentage, -0.070 and -0.116; days open, -0.012 and -0.065; and calving interval, -0.007 and -0.029. Changes in magnitude of correlations were very small for all variables except days open. Genetic and phenotypic correlations of transformed values with days open were -0.027 and -0.140. Modest positive correlated responses would be expected for white coat color percentage following direct selection for milk, fat, and protein yields, but selection for fat and protein percentages, days open, or calving interval would lead to small decreases.

Diagnosing dementia and normal aging: clinical relevance of brain ratios and cognitive performance in a Brazilian sample

The main objective of the present study was to evaluate the diagnostic value (clinical application) of brain measures and cognitive function. Alzheimer and multiinfarct patients (N = 30) and normal subjects over the age of 50 (N = 40) were submitted to a medical, neurological and cognitive investigation. The cognitive tests applied were Mini-Mental, word span, digit span, logical memory, spatial recognition span, Boston naming test, praxis, and calculation tests. The brain ratios calculated were the ventricle-brain, bifrontal, bicaudate, third ventricle, and suprasellar cistern measures. These data were obtained from a brain computer tomography scan, and the cutoff values from receiver operating characteristic curves. We analyzed the diagnostic parameters provided by these ratios and compared them to those obtained by cognitive evaluation. The sensitivity and specificity of cognitive tests were higher than brain measures, although dementia patients presented higher ratios, showing poorer cognitive performances than normal individuals. Normal controls over the age of 70 presented higher measures than younger groups, but similar cognitive performance. We found diffuse losses of tissue from the central nervous system related to distribution of cerebrospinal fluid in dementia patients. The likelihood of case identification by functional impairment was higher than when changes of the structure of the central nervous system were used. Cognitive evaluation still seems to be the best method to screen individuals from the community, especially for developing countries, where the cost of brain imaging precludes its use for screening and initial assessment of dementia.