Survival analysis: a tool in the study of post-harvest diseases in peaches

Survival analysis is applied when the time until the occurrence of an event is of interest. Such data are routinely collected in plant diseases, although applications of the method are uncommon. The objective of this study was to use two studies on post-harvest diseases of peaches, considering two harvests together and the existence of random effect shared by fruits of a same tree, in order to describe the main techniques in survival analysis. The nonparametric Kaplan-Meier method, the log-rank test and the semi-parametric Cox's proportional hazards model were used to estimate the effect of cultivars and the number of days after full bloom on the survival to the brown rot symptom and the instantaneous risk of expressing it in two consecutive harvests. The joint analysis with baseline effect, varying between harvests, and the confirmation of the tree effect as a grouping factor with random effect were appropriate to interpret the phenomenon (disease) evaluated and can be important tools to replace or complement the conventional analysis, respecting the nature of the variable and the phenomenon.

Survival of adult AIDS patients in a reference hospital of a metropolitan area in Brazil

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the influence of sociodemographic, clinical, and epidemiological factors in AIDS patients survival in a reference hospital. METHODS: A sample of 502 adult AIDS patients out of 1,494 AIDS cases registered in a hospital in Fortaleza, Brazil, was investigated between 1986 and 1998. Sixteen cases were excluded due to death at the moment of the AIDS diagnosis and 486 were analyzed in the study. Socioeconomic and clinical epidemiological were the variables studied. Statistical analysis was conducted using the Kaplan-Meier survival analysis and the Cox proportional hazards model. RESULTS: Three hundred and sixty two out of the 486 patients studied took at least one antiretroviral drug and their survival was ten times longer than those who did not take any drug (746 and 79 days, respectively, p <0.001). Patients who took two nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NRTI) plus protease inhibitor were found to have higher survival rates (p <0.001). The risk of dying in the first year was significantly lower for patients who took NRTI and a protease inhibitor compared to those who took only NRTI. In addition, this risk was much lower from the second year on (0.10; 95%CI: 0.42-0.23). The risk of dying in the first year was significantly higher for less educated patients (15.58; 95%CI: 6.64-36.58) and those who had two or more systemic diseases (3.03; 95%CI: 1.74-5.25). After the first year post-diagnosis, there was no risk difference for these factors. CONCLUSIONS: Higher education revealed to exert a significant influence in the first-year survival. Antiretroviral drugs had a greater impact in the survival from the second year on. A more aggressive antiretroviral therapy started earlier could benefit those patients.

Survival of a cohort of women with cervical cancer diagnosed in a Brazilian cancer center

OBJECTIVE: To assess overall survival of women with cervical cancer and describe prognostic factors associated. METHODS: A total of 3,341 cases of invasive cervical cancer diagnosed at the Brazilian Cancer Institute, Rio de Janeiro, southeastern Brazil, between 1999 and 2004 were selected. Clinical and pathological characteristics and follow-up data were collected. There were performed a survival analysis using Kaplan-Meier curves and a multivariate analysis through Cox model. RESULTS: Of all cases analyzed, 68.3% had locally advanced disease at the time of diagnosis. The 5-year overall survival was 48%. After multivariate analysis, tumor staging at diagnosis was the single variable significantly associated with prognosis (p<0.001). There was seen a dose-response relationship between mortality and clinical staging, ranging from 27.8 to 749.6 per 1,000 cases-year in women stage I and IV, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The study showed that early detection through prevention programs is crucial to increase cervical cancer survival.

Liver morphology with emphasis on bile ducts changes and survival analysis in mice submitted to multiple Schistosoma mansoni infections and chemotherapy

In an attempt to be as close as possible to the infected and treated patients of the endemic areas of schistosomiasis (S. mansoni) and in order to achieve a long period of follow-up, mice were repeatedly infected with a low number of cercariae. Survival data and histological variables such as schistosomal granuloma, portal changes, hepatocellular necrosis, hepatocellular regeneration, schistosomotic pigment, periductal fibrosis and chiefly bile ducts changes were analysed in the infected treated and non treated mice. Oxamniquine chemotherapy in repeatedly infected mice prolonged survival significantly when compared to non-treated animals (chi-square 9.24, p = 0.0024), thus confirming previous results with a similar experimental model but with a shorter term follow-up. Furthermore, mortality decreased rapidly after treatment suggesting an abrupt reduction in the severity of hepatic lesions. A morphological and immunohistochemical study of the liver was carried out. Portal fibrosis, with a pattern resembling human Symmers fibrosis was present at a late phase in the infected animals. Bile duct lesions were quite close to those described in human Mansonian schistosomiasis. Schistosomal antigen was observed in one isolated altered bile duct cell. The pathogenesis of the bile duct changes and its relation to the parasite infection and/or their antigens are discussed.

Activity of two different triazoles in a murine model of paracoccidioidomycosis

A new orally absorbable triazole (Schering 39304) with a long serum half-life in man (60 hours), was tried in a murine model of progressive paracoccidioidomycosis and compared with itraconazole, another triazole which has proven effective in this mycosis. Only 15% of the infected, untreated mice survived while 53 to 75% of the animals receiving itraconazole survived. Mice treated with Schering 39304 exhibited higher (86 - 100%) survival rates. Statistically, the 5 mg/kg Sch 39304 was superior to the 50 mg/kg itraconazole dose. Lung cultures showed that 20 mg/kg/day of Sch achieved sterilization of the infectious foci. These results indicate that the new triazole will have a place in the treatment of paracoccidioidomycosis

Flucytosine + fluconazole association in the treatment of a murine experimental model of cryptococcosis

The efficacy of flucytosine (5-FC) and fluconazole (FLU) association in the treatment of a murine experimental model of cryptococcosis, was evaluated. Seven groups of 10 Balb C mice each, were intraperitoneally inoculated with 10(7) cells of Cryptococcus neoformans. Six groups were allocated to receive 5-FC (300 mg/kg) and FLU (16 mg/ kg), either combined and individually, by daily gavage beginning 5 days after the infection, for 2 and 4 weeks. One group received distilled water and was used as control. The evaluation of treatments was based on: survival time; macroscopic examination of brain, lungs, liver and spleen at autopsy; presence of capsulated yeasts in microscopic examination of wet preparations of these organs and cultures of brain homogenate. 5-FC and FLU, individually or combined, significantly prolonged the survival time of the treated animals with respect to the control group (p<0.01). Animals treated for 4 weeks survived significantly longer than those treated for 2 weeks (p<0.01). No significant differences between the animals treated with 5-FC and FLU combined or separately were observed in the survival time and morphological parameters. The association of 5-FC and FLU does not seem to be more effective than 5-FC or FLU alone, in the treatment of this experimental model of cryptococcosis.

Survival and Predictive Factors of Lethality in Hemodyalisis: D/I Polymorphism of The Angiotensin I-Converting Enzyme and of the Angiotensinogen M235T Genes

Background: End-stage kidney disease patients continue to have markedly increased cardiovascular disease morbidity and mortality. Analysis of genetic factors connected with the renin-angiotensin system that influences the survival of the patients with end-stage kidney disease supports the ongoing search for improved outcomes. Objective: To assess survival and its association with the polymorphism of renin-angiotensin system genes: angiotensin I-converting enzyme insertion/deletion and angiotensinogen M235T in patients undergoing hemodialysis. Methods: Our study was designed to examine the role of renin-angiotensin system genes. It was an observational study. We analyzed 473 chronic hemodialysis patients in four dialysis units in the state of Rio de Janeiro. Survival rates were calculated by the Kaplan-Meier method and the differences between the curves were evaluated by Tarone-Ware, Peto-Prentice, and log rank tests. We also used logistic regression analysis and the multinomial model. A p value ≤ 0.05 was considered to be statistically significant. The local medical ethics committee gave their approval to this study. Results: The mean age of patients was 45.8 years old. The overall survival rate was 48% at 11 years. The major causes of death were cardiovascular diseases (34%) and infections (15%). Logistic regression analysis found statistical significance for the following variables: age (p = 0.000038), TT angiotensinogen (p = 0.08261), and family income greater than five times the minimum wage (p = 0.03089), the latter being a protective factor. Conclusions: The survival of hemodialysis patients is likely to be influenced by the TT of the angiotensinogen M235T gene.

Clinical presentation and survival of smear-positive pulmonary tuberculosis patients of a University General Hospital in a developing country

From January 1995 to August 1997 we evaluated prospectively the clinical presentation, laboratory findings and short-term survival of smear-positive pulmonary tuberculosis (TB) patients who sought care at our hospital. After providing informed, written consent, the patients were interviewed and laboratory tests were performed. Information about survivorship and death was collected through September 1998. Eighty-six smear-positive pulmonary TB patients were enrolled; 26.7% were HIV-seropositive. Seventeen HIV-seronegative pulmonary TB patients (19.8%) presented chronic diseases in addition to TB. In the multiple logistic regression analysis a CD4+ cell count <= 200 cell/mm³ was independently associated with HIV seropositivity. In the Cox regression model, fitted to all patients, HIV seropositivity and age > or = 50 years were independently associated with decreased survival. Among HIV-seronegative persons, the presence of an additional disease increased the risk of death of almost six-fold. Use of antiretroviral drugs was associated with a lower risk of death among HIV-seropositive smear-positive pulmonary TB patients (RH = 0.32, 95% CI 0.10-0.92). In our study smear-positive pulmonary TB patients had a low short-term survival rate that was strongly associated with HIV infection, age and co-morbidities. Therapy with antiretroviral drugs reduced the short-term risk of death among HIV-seropositive patients after TB diagnosis.

Container productivity, daily survival rates and dispersal of Aedes aegypti mosquitoes in a high income dengue epidemic neighbourhood of Rio de Janeiro: presumed influence of differential urban structure on mosquito biology

Different urban structures might affect the life history parameters of Aedes aegypti and, consequently, dengue transmission. Container productivity, probability of daily survival (PDS) and dispersal rates were estimated for mosquito populations in a high income neighbourhood of Rio de Janeiro. Results were contrasted with those previously found in a suburban district, as well as those recorded in a slum. After inspecting 1,041 premises, domestic drains and discarded plastic pots were identified as the most productive containers, collectively holding up to 80% of the total pupae. In addition, three cohorts of dust-marked Ae. aegypti females were released and recaptured daily using BGS-Traps, sticky ovitraps and backpack aspirators in 50 randomly selected houses; recapture rate ranged from 5-12.2% within cohorts. PDS was determined by two models and ranged from 0.607-0.704 (exponential model) and 0.659-0.721 (non-linear model), respectively. Mean distance travelled varied from 57-122 m, with a maximum dispersal of 263 m. Overall, lower infestation indexes and adult female survival were observed in the high income neighbourhood, suggesting a lower dengue transmission risk in comparison to the suburban area and the slum. Since results show that urban structure can influence mosquito biology, specific control strategies might be used in order to achieve cost-effective Ae. aegypti control.

Ionic imbalance and lack of effect of adjuvant treatment with methylene blue in the hamster model of leptospirosis

Leptospirosis in humans usually involves hypokalaemia and hypomagnesaemia and the putative mechanism underlying such ionic imbalances may be related to nitric oxide (NO) production. We previously demonstrated the correlation between serum levels of NO and the severity of renal disease in patients with severe leptospirosis. Methylene blue inhibits soluble guanylyl cyclase (downstream of the action of any NO synthase isoforms) and was recently reported to have beneficial effects on clinical and experimental sepsis. We investigated the occurrence of serum ionic changes in experimental leptospirosis at various time points (4, 8, 16 and 28 days) in a hamster model. We also determined the effect of methylene blue treatment when administered as an adjuvant therapy, combined with late initiation of standard antibiotic (ampicillin) treatment. Hypokalaemia was not reproduced in this model: all of the groups developed increased levels of serum potassium (K). Furthermore, hypermagnesaemia, rather than magnesium (Mg) depletion, was observed in this hamster model of acute infection. These findings may be associated with an accelerated progression to acute renal failure. Adjuvant treatment with methylene blue had no effect on survival or serum Mg and K levels during acute-phase leptospirosis in hamsters.

Mir-190b negatively contributes to the Trypanosoma cruzi- infected cell survival by repressing PTEN protein expression

Chagas disease, which is caused by the intracellular protozoanTrypanosoma cruzi, is a serious health problem in Latin America. The heart is one of the major organs affected by this parasitic infection. The pathogenesis of tissue remodelling, particularly regarding cardiomyocyte behaviour after parasite infection, and the molecular mechanisms that occur immediately following parasite entry into host cells are not yet completely understood. Previous studies have reported that the establishment of parasitism is connected to the activation of the phosphatidylinositol-3 kinase (PI3K), which controls important steps in cellular metabolism by regulating the production of the second messenger phosphatidylinositol-3,4,5-trisphosphate. Particularly, the tumour suppressor PTEN is a negative regulator of PI3K signalling. However, mechanistic details of the modulatory activity of PTEN on Chagas disease have not been elucidated. To address this question, H9c2 cells were infected with T. cruzi Berenice 62 strain and the expression of a specific set of microRNAs (miRNAs) were investigated. Our cellular model demonstrated that miRNA-190b is correlated to the decrease of cellular viability rates by negatively modulating PTEN protein expression in T. cruzi-infected cells.

Bayesian genetic parameters for body weight and survival of Nile tilapia farmed in Brazil

The objective of this study was to estimate genetic parameters for survival and weight of Nile tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus), farmed in cages and ponds in Brazil, and to predict genetic gain under different scenarios. Survival was recorded as a binary response (dead or alive), during harvest time in the 2008 grow-out period. Genetic parameters were estimated using a Bayesian mixed linear-threshold animal model via Gibbs sampling. The breeding population consisted of 2,912 individual fish, which were analyzed together with the pedigree of 5,394 fish. The heritabilities estimates, with 95% posterior credible intervals, for tagging weight, harvest weight and survival were 0.17 (0.09-0.27), 0.21 (0.12-0.32) and 0.32 (0.22-0.44), respectively. Credible intervals show a 95% probability that the true genetic correlations were in a favourable direction. The selection for weight has a positive impact on survival. Estimated genetic gain was high when selecting for harvest weight (5.07%), and indirect gain for tagging weight (2.17%) and survival (2.03%) were also considerable.

Cyclic AMP increases the survival of ganglion cells in mixed retinal cell cultures in the absence of exogenous neurotrophic molecules, an effect that involves cholinergic activity

Natural cell death is a well-known degenerative phenomenon occurring during development of the nervous system. The role of trophic molecules produced by target and afferent cells as well as by glial cells has been extensively demonstrated. Literature data demonstrate that cAMP can modulate the survival of neuronal cells. Cultures of mixed retinal cells were treated with forskolin (an activator of the enzyme adenylyl cyclase) for 48 h. The results show that 50 µM forskolin induced a two-fold increase in the survival of retinal ganglion cells (RGCs) in the absence of exogenous trophic factors. This effect was dose dependent and abolished by 1 µM H89 (an inhibitor of protein kinase A), 1.25 µM chelerythrine chloride (an inhibitor of protein kinase C), 50 µM PD 98059 (an inhibitor of MEK), 25 µM Ly 294002 (an inhibitor of phosphatidylinositol-3 kinase), 30 nM brefeldin A (an inhibitor of polypeptide release), and 10 µM genistein or 1 ng/ml herbimycin (inhibitors of tyrosine kinase enzymes). The inhibition of muscarinic receptors by 10 µM atropine or 1 µM telenzepine also blocked the effect of forskolin. When we used 25 µM BAPTA, an intracellular calcium chelator, as well as 20 µM 5-fluoro-2'-deoxyuridine, an inhibitor of cell proliferation, we also abolished the effect. Our results indicate that cAMP plays an important role controlling the survival of RGCs. This effect is directly dependent on M1 receptor activation indicating that cholinergic activity mediates the increase in RGC survival. We propose a model which involves cholinergic amacrine cells and glial cells in the increase of RGC survival elicited by forskolin treatment.

Contribution of CD4+ T cells to the early mechanisms of ischemia- reperfusion injury in a mouse model of acute renal failure

Renal ischemia-reperfusion (IR) injury is the major cause of acute renal failure in native and transplanted kidneys. Mononuclear leukocytes have been reported in renal tissue as part of the innate and adaptive responses triggered by IR. We investigated the participation of CD4+ T lymphocytes in the pathogenesis of renal IR injury. Male mice (C57BL/6, 8 to 12 weeks old) were submitted to 45 min of ischemia by renal pedicle clamping followed by reperfusion. We evaluated the role of CD4+ T cells using a monoclonal depleting antibody against CD4 (GK1.5, 50 µ, ip), and class II-major histocompatibility complex molecule knockout mice. Both CD4-depleted groups showed a marked improvement in renal function compared to the ischemic group, despite the fact that GK1.5 mAb treatment promoted a profound CD4 depletion (to less than 5% compared to normal controls) only within the first 24 h after IR. CD4-depleted groups presented a significant improvement in 5-day survival (84 vs 80 vs 39%; antibody treated, knockout mice and non-depleted groups, respectively) and also a significant reduction in the tubular necrosis area with an early tubular regeneration pattern. The peak of CD4-positive cell infiltration occurred on day 2, coinciding with the high expression of ßC mRNA and increased urea levels. CD4 depletion did not alter the CD11b infiltrate or the IFN-g and granzyme-B mRNA expression in renal tissue. These data indicate that a CD4+ subset of T lymphocytes may be implicated as key mediators of very early inflammatory responses after renal IR injury and that targeting CD4+ T lymphocytes may yield novel therapies.

Immune cells and oxidative stress in the endotoxin tolerance mouse model

Sepsis is a systemic inflammatory response that can lead to tissue damage and death. In order to increase our understanding of sepsis, experimental models are needed that produce relevant immune and inflammatory responses during a septic event. We describe a lipopolysaccharide tolerance mouse model to characterize the cellular and molecular alterations of immune cells during sepsis. The model presents a typical lipopolysaccharide tolerance pattern in which tolerance is related to decreased production and secretion of cytokines after a subsequent exposure to a lethal dose of lipopolysaccharide. The initial lipopolysaccharide exposure also altered the expression patterns of cytokines and was followed by an 8- and a 1.5-fold increase in the T helper 1 and 2 cell subpopulations. Behavioral data indicate a decrease in spontaneous activity and an increase in body temperature following exposure to lipopolysaccharide. In contrast, tolerant animals maintained production of reactive oxygen species and nitric oxide when terminally challenged by cecal ligation and puncture (CLP). Survival study after CLP showed protection in tolerant compared to naive animals. Spleen mass increased in tolerant animals followed by increases of B lymphocytes and subpopulation Th1 cells. An increase in the number of stem cells was found in spleen and bone marrow. We also showed that administration of spleen or bone marrow cells from tolerant to naive animals transfers the acquired resistance status. In conclusion, lipopolysaccharide tolerance is a natural reprogramming of the immune system that increases the number of immune cells, particularly T helper 1 cells, and does not reduce oxidative stress.