Análise da relação entre crescimento econômico e gastos públicos nas maiores cidades da região Sul do Brasil

Estudos que analisam os impactos da política fiscal sobre o crescimento econômico de países, estados e municípios são recorrentes. As questões de pesquisa mais comumente consideradas levam a investigar se os gastos públicos podem elevar o crescimento econômico com o aumento da produtividade do setor privado. Neste sentido, o objetivo deste estudo é investigar a relação existente entre o crescimento econômico, considerando o Produto Interno Bruto (PIB), e as variáveis que compõem os gastos públicos das maiores cidades da região Sul do Brasil. Trata-se de uma pesquisa descritiva com abordagem quantitativa e de corte seccional. Para tal, o artigo apresenta um modelo matemático não linear multivariável que é avaliado empiricamente por meio de uma aplicação para os gastos públicos das maiores cidades da região Sul do Brasil. A partir da utilização do modelo, estimou-se o PIB para as cidades e comparou-se com os valores reais do PIB. Os resultados mostram um erro de estimação de 22,45% para uma confiabilidade de 85,16%. Conclui-se que os gastos dos governos locais têm um importante papel no crescimento econômico.

China: crescimento econômico de longo prazo

China: long-run economic growth. The paper aims to understand on theoretical and empirical grounds the main determinants of China´s long run growth. The econometric analysis suggests the exchange rate as the most important variable in explaining China´s economic growth and in a different model specification using growth rates of exports instead of trade openness, the exchange rate remains as the main variable but export performance has almost the same relevance. Exchange rate policy seems to be a direct road to explain economic growth in China and there is no clear sign that China will increase exchange rate flexibility in the same pattern and pace suggested by most trade partners, which cannot be criticized based on China´s own interest in sustaining its export performance and economic growth.

Relação entre mercado de terras, crescimento econômico e insegurança fundiária explicada por um modelo a "geração imbricada"

In this paper, we analyze the relationship between the land market failures and the economic growth in Brazil, starting from an overlapping model including two sectors: agricultural and industrial. The land is both a specific factor for agriculture and an asset that can be substituted to the capital used in industry. The trade-off between land and capital holding depends, among other factors, on the transaction costs on the land market. These costs result from land insecurity and generate a decrease in the land price that favors capital accumulation. Two assumptions follow from our model: one the one hand, land insecurity has a negative effect on the land price; one the other hand it has a positive effect on economic growth. These two hypotheses are tested on panel data for Brazilian Federation. The econometric results do not reject our hypothesis.

Liberalização da conta de capitais e crescimento econômico: evidências de dados em painel para a América Latina

The aim of this paper is to carry out an empirical analysis about the relation between Capital Account Liberalization and Economic Growth having as object of study the experience of 16 countries of Latin America with annual data for the period 1986-2000. The econometrical calculations do not corroborate the hypothesis that the liberalization of Capital Account would stimulate the economic growth. The results suggest an adverse effect of the liberalization of the Capital Account on the real growth gross domestic product per capita of the countries.

Mudança estrutural, desenvolvimento institucional e crescimento econômico sustentado: um comentário sobre a experiência irlandesa

It is discussed the recent Irish experience of sustained economic growth, in which a social pact, the entry in the European Union and the opening of the economy have all played a paramount role. Some remarks on the sustainability of such an experience are also made.

Os efeitos da política educacional no crescimento econômico: teoria e estimativas dinâmicas em painel de dados

In this paper, we develop a theoretical model that considers a non-linear relationship between growth and level of education (human capital). Our econometric estimates demonstrated the causality running from human capital to GDP per capita with U inverted shape. The level of education (human capital) that generates the maximum growth rate lies around 4.5 years. The foremost implication of this result is that States with level of education below this range should have as priority educational policies.

China: estabilidade e crescimento econômico

China: stability and economic growth. China experienced an extraordinary economic growth since 1978, while keeping inflation low. Which are the main determinants for this performance and to what point has macroeconomic policy been responsible? Obviously, many factors have been important although none of them may be appointed as the sole determinant. The paper also argues whether China would be able to keep this pace of growth or will slow down, like many other Asian countries. It is argued that China will maintain her average rate of growth in the near future.

Crescimento econômico e liquidez externa no Brasil após 1970

Economic growth and foreign liquidity in Brazil after 1970. This paper assesses the relationship between the capital account and the Brazilian economic growth according to balance-of-payments constraint approach. The Thirlwall (1979)'s simple rule is extended to take into consideration capital account and several empirical evidence using time series analysis are shown. Conversely to the simple rule when fitted rates of balance-of-payment equilibrium economic growth average bellow the observed ones, fitted rates of growth using the rule extended to international liquidity are consistently greater than the observed ones. It is fair to conclude that, first, the Brazilian economy grows better during abundant international liquidity and, second, the economy sub utilizes such advantage growing far less than it could grow.

Crescimento econômico impulsionado por recursos naturais: uma nota sobre a experiência de Botsuana

Economic growth stimulated by natural resources: a note on the Botswana experience. Botswana was the fastest growing economy in the world in the 1966-1989 period. Even though the discovery and exploitation of large diamond reserves had played an essential role in such an impressive performance, favorable economic, political and institutional conditions allowed the use of the resulting large export revenues as a lever for economic growth, though not for development.

Taxa de câmbio real e crescimento econômico: uma comparação entre economias emergentes e desenvolvidas

Real exchange rate and economic growth: a comparison between emerging and developed economies. This paper presents a discussion on the relationship between economic growth and real exchange rate. The article presents the results generated by a dynamic panel that tested the relationship of economic growth with the level of the exchange rate, exchange rate volatility and the choice of exchange rate regime from 26 countries, 13 emerging and 13 developed. The results suggest that the level of the exchange rate and volatility are relevant for growth. Finally, the paper stresses that there are important differences when comparing developed and emerging economies.

Taxa real de câmbio, desalinhamento cambial e crescimento econômico no Brasil (1994-2007)

Real exchange rate, exchange rate misalignment and economic growth in Brazil: 1994-2007. In this article we argue that the Brazilian economy presented in the period 1994-2007 a tendency of real exchange rate appreciation with respect to its equilibrium value, mainly from 2005. This exchange rate misalignment has worked to reduce the growth of Brazilian economy and is the root of the re-emergence of current account deficits.