Population Dynamics Modeling of Arapaima gigas

Pirarucu (Arapaima gigas) has been of the most important natural fishing resources of the Amazon region. Due to its economic importance, and the necessity to preserve the species hand, field research concerning the habits and behavior of the pirarucu has been increasing for the last 20 years. The aim of this paper is to present a mathematical model for the pirarucu population dynamics considering the species peculiarities, particularly the male parental care over the offspring. The solution of the dynamical systems indicates three possible equilibrium points for the population. The first corresponds to extinction; the third corresponds to a stable population close to the environmental carrying capacity. The second corresponds to an unstable equilibrium located between extinction and full use of the carrying capacity. It is shown that lack of males’ parental care closes the gap between the point corresponding to the unstable equilibrium and the point of stable non-trivial equilibrium. If guarding failure reaches a critical point the two points coincide and the population tends irreversibly to extinction. If some event tends to destabilize the population equilibrium, as for instance inadequate parental care, the model responds in such a way as to restore the trajectory towards the stable equilibrium point avoiding the route to extinction. The parameters introduced to solve the system of equations are partially derived from limited but reliable field data collected at the Mamirauá Sustainable Development Reserve (MSDR) in the Brazilian Amazonian Region.

Environmental analyses of the parasitic profile found in the sandy soil from the Santos municipality beaches, SP, Brazil

The environmental contamination by geohelminths represents a world public health problem and has been well documented by several authors. However, few papers describe the presence of such contamination in saline soils of coastal beaches. A study was performed on the beaches of the municipality of Santos in the period between May 2004 to April 2005 with the aim of determining the degree of contamination, and the correlation between contamination level and seasonal conditions and characteristics of the environment. Of the 2,520 samples analyzed, 18.2% (458) were contaminated, 32.3% (148) of which were localized in children's recreational areas (playgrounds). The parasite profile found in the analyzed samples indicated the presence of several zoonotic parasites: Ancylostoma larvae (82.5%), Toxocara sp. eggs (59.4%), Ancylostomidae-like eggs (37.1%), coccid oocysts (13.5%), Trichostrongylus sp. eggs and larvae, Ascaris lumbricoides eggs, (11.6%), Entamoeba sp. cysts (10.0%), Strongyloides sp. (4.8%), several free nematoids and some non-identified parasitic structures (3.3%). It was established that the highest frequency of parasitic structures occurred in the months between May and October 2004, and from February to March 2005. An increase in the diversity of parasitic forms was documented in the months between February to December 2004 and from January to April 2005, these periods having the highest rainfall.

Matrix- based logic for avoiding paradoxes and its paraconsistent alternative

The present article shows that there are consistent and decidable many- valued systems of propositional logic which satisfy two or all the three criteria for non- trivial inconsistent theories by da Costa (1974). The weaker one of these paraconsistent system is also able to avoid a series of paradoxes which come up when classical logic is applied to empirical sciences. These paraconsistent systems are based on a 6- valued system of propositional logic for avoiding difficulties in several domains of empirical science (Weingartner (2009)).

Chromosomal abnormalities in couples with recurrent first trimester abortions

PURPOSE: To investigate the prevalence of chromosomal abnormalities in couples with two or more recurrent first trimester miscarriages of unknown cause. METHODS: The study was conducted on 151 women and 94 partners who had an obstetrical history of two or more consecutive first trimester abortions (1-12 weeks of gestation). The controls were 100 healthy women without a history of pregnancy loss. Chromosomal analysis was performed on peripheral blood lymphocytes cultured for 72 hours, using Trypsin-Giemsa (GTG) banding. In all cases, at least 30 metaphases were analyzed and 2 karyotypes were prepared, using light microscopy. The statistical analysis was performed using the Student t-test for normally distributed data and the Mann-Whitney test for non-parametric data. The Kruskal-Wallis test or Analysis of Variance was used to compare the mean values between three or more groups. The software used was Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS), version 17.0. RESULTS: The frequency of chromosomal abnormalities in women with recurrent miscarriages was 7.3%, including 4.7% with X-chromosome mosaicism, 2% with reciprocal translocations and 0.6% with Robertsonian translocations. A total of 2.1% of the partners of women with recurrent miscarriages had chromosomal abnormalities, including 1% with X-chromosome mosaicism and 1% with inversions. Among the controls, 1% had mosaicism. CONCLUSION: An association between chromosomal abnormalities and recurrent miscarriage in the first trimester of pregnancy (OR=7.7; 95%CI 1.2--170.5) was observed in the present study. Etiologic identification of genetic factors represents important clinical information for genetic counseling and orientation of the couple about the risk for future pregnancies and decreases the number of investigations needed to elucidate the possible causes of miscarriages.

Control of Structures with Cubic and Quadratic Non-Linearities with Time Delay Consideration

This paper studies the effect of time delay on the active non-linear control of dynamically loaded flexible structures. The behavior of non-linear systems under state feedback control, considering a fixed time delay for the control force, is investigated. A control method based on non-linear optimal control, using a tensorial formulation and state feedback control is used. The state equations and the control forces are expressed in polynomial form and a performance index, quadratic in both state vector and control forces, is used. General polynomial representations of the non-linear control law are obtained and implemented for control algorithms up to the fifth order. This methodology is applied to systems with quadratic and cubic non-linearities. Strongly non-linear systems are tested and the effectiveness of the control system including a delay for the application of control forces is discussed. Numerical results indicate that the adopted control algorithm can be efficient for non-linear systems, chiefly in the presence of strong non-linearities but increasing time delay reduces the efficiency of the control system. Numerical results emphasize the importance of considering time delay in the project of active structural control systems.

Application of the center manifold theory to the study of slewing flexible Non-ideal structures with nonlinear curvature: a case study

In this paper is Analyzed the local dynamical behavior of a slewing flexible structure considering nonlinear curvature. The dynamics of the original (nonlinear) governing equations of motion are reduced to the center manifold in the neighborhood of an equilibrium solution with the purpose of locally study the stability of the system. In this critical point, a Hopf bifurcation occurs. In this region, one can find values for the control parameter (structural damping coefficient) where the system is unstable and values where the system stability is assured (periodic motion). This local analysis of the system reduced to the center manifold assures the stable / unstable behavior of the original system around a known solution.

Mortality among patients with non-affective functional psychoses in a metropolitan area of South-Eastern Brazil

High mortality rates among those suffering from schizophrenia and related psychoses have been consistently described in developed societies. However, to date there is a lack of data on this matter in Brazil. In order to examine this issue, a prospective 2-year follow-up study was carried out in S. Paulo. The sample consisted of 120 consecutive admissions to psychiatric hospitals in a defined catchment area, aged 18 to 44 years old, with clinical diagnoses of non-affective functional psychoses according to the ICD-9. After 2 years, 116 (96.7%) subjects were traced. During the study period there were 7 deaths (6.0% of those traced), 5 (4.3%) due to suicide. All but one of the suicides occurred in the first year after discharge from hospital. Age and sex Standardised Mortality Ratios (relative to rates for the population of the city of Sao Paulo) were 8.4 for overall mortality (95% confidence interval: 4.0-15.9) and 317.9 for deaths due to suicide (95% confidence interval: 125.2-668.3). These results are in agreement with previous studies, and show that in Brazil non-affective functional psychoses are life-threatening illnesses, which need adequate care, particularly when patients go back to live in the community after hospital discharge.

Predicting the revolving door phenomenon among patients with schizophrenic, affective disorders and non-organic psychoses

OBJECTIVE: The aim of the study was to identify the variables that predict the revolving door phenomenon in psychiatric hospital at the moment of a second admission. METHODS: The sample consisted of 3,093 patients who have been followed during 5 to 24 years after their first hospital admission due to schizophrenia, and affective or psychotic disorders. Those who had had four or more admissions during the study period were considered as revolving door patients. Logistic regression analyses were used to assess the impact of gender, age, marital status, urban conditions, diagnosis, mean period of stay on the first admission, interval between the first and second admissions on the patterns of hospitalization. RESULTS: The variables with the highest predictive power for readmission were the interval between first and second admissions, and the length of stay in the first admission. CONCLUSIONS: These data may help public health planners in providing optimal care to a small group of patients with more effective utilization of the available services.

The effects of air pollution on cardiovascular diseases: lag structures

OBJECTIVE: To assess the lag structure between air pollution exposure and elderly cardiovascular diseases hospital admissions, by gender. METHODS: Health data of people aged 64 years or older was stratified by gender in São Paulo city, Southeastern Brazil, from 1996 to 2001. Daily levels of air pollutants (CO, PM10, O3, NO2, and SO2) , minimum temperature, and relative humidity were also analyzed. It were fitted generalized additive Poisson regressions and used constrained distributed lag models adjusted for long time trend, weekdays, weather and holidays to assess the lagged effects of air pollutants on hospital admissions up to 20 days after exposure. RESULTS: Interquartile range increases in PM10 (26.21 mug/m³) and SO2 (10.73 mug/m³) were associated with 3.17% (95% CI: 2.09-4.25) increase in congestive heart failure and 0.89% (95% CI: 0.18-1.61) increase in total cardiovascular diseases at lag 0, respectively. Effects were higher among female group for most of the analyzed outcomes. Effects of air pollutants for different outcomes and gender groups were predominately acute and some "harvesting" were found. CONLUSIONS: The results show that cardiovascular diseases in São Paulo are strongly affected by air pollution.

Spatial analysis of urban violence based on emergency room data

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the spatial intensity of urban violence events using wavelet-based methods and emergency room data. METHODS: Information on victims attended at the emergency room of a public hospital in the city of São Paulo, Southeastern Brazil, from January 1, 2002 to January 11, 2003 were obtained from hospital records. The spatial distribution of 3,540 events was recorded and a uniform random procedure was used to allocate records with incomplete addresses. Point processes and wavelet analysis technique were used to estimate the spatial intensity, defined as the expected number of events by unit area. RESULTS: Of all georeferenced points, 59% were accidents and 40% were assaults. There is a non-homogeneous spatial distribution of the events with high concentration in two districts and three large avenues in the southern area of the city of São Paulo. CONCLUSIONS: Hospital records combined with methodological tools to estimate intensity of events are useful to study urban violence. The wavelet analysis is useful in the computation of the expected number of events and their respective confidence bands for any sub-region and, consequently, in the specification of risk estimates that could be used in decision-making processes for public policies.

Non-adherence to telemedicine interventions for drug users: systematic review

OBJECTIVE To estimate rates of non-adherence to telemedicine strategies aimed at treating drug addiction. METHODS A systematic review was conducted of randomized controlled trials investigating different telemedicine treatment methods for drug addiction. The following databases were consulted between May 18, 2012 and June 21, 2012: PubMed, PsycINFO, SciELO, Wiley (The Cochrane Library), Embase, Clinical trials and Google Scholar. The Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation was used to evaluate the quality of the studies. The criteria evaluated were: appropriate sequence of data generation, allocation concealment, blinding, description of losses and exclusions and analysis by intention to treat. There were 274 studies selected, of which 20 were analyzed. RESULTS Non-adherence rates varied between 15.0% and 70.0%. The interventions evaluated were of at least three months duration and, although they all used telemedicine as support, treatment methods differed. Regarding the quality of the studies, the values also varied from very poor to high quality. High quality studies showed better adherence rates, as did those using more than one technique of intervention and a limited treatment time. Mono-user studies showed better adherence rates than poly-user studies. CONCLUSIONS Rates of non-adherence to treatment involving telemedicine on the part of users of psycho-active substances differed considerably, depending on the country, the intervention method, follow-up time and substances used. Using more than one technique of intervention, short duration of treatment and the type of substance used by patients appear to facilitate adherence.

Readmission of older patients after hospital discharge for hip fracture: a multilevel approach

ABSTRACT OBJECTIVE To identify individual and hospital characteristics associated with the risk of readmission in older inpatients for proximal femoral fracture in the period of 90 days after discharge. METHODS Deaths and readmissions were obtained by a linkage of databases of the Hospital Information System of the Unified Health System and the System of Information on Mortality of the city of Rio de Janeiro from 2008 to 2011. The population of 3,405 individuals aged 60 or older, with non-elective hospitalization for proximal femoral fracture was followed for 90 days after discharge. Cox multilevel model was used for discharge time until readmission, and the characteristics of the patients were used on the first level and the characteristics of the hospitals on the second level. RESULTS The risk of readmission was higher for men (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.37; 95%CI 1.08–1.73), individuals more than 79 years old (HR = 1.45; 95%CI 1.06–1.98), patients who were hospitalized for more than two weeks (HR = 1.33; 95%CI 1.06-1.67), and for those who underwent arthroplasty when compared with the ones who underwent osteosynthesis (HR = 0.57; 95%CI 0.41–0.79). Besides, patients admitted to state hospitals had lower risk for readmission when compared with inpatients in municipal (HR = 1.71; 95%CI 1.09–2.68) and federal hospitals (HR = 1.81; 95%CI 1.00–3.27). The random effect of the hospitals in the adjusted model remained statistically significant (p < 0.05). CONCLUSIONS Hospitals have complex structures that reflect in the quality of care. Thus, we propose that future studies may include these complexities and the severity of the patients in the analysis of the data, also considering the correlation between readmission and mortality to reduce biases.